On 5 March, the American city of Sacramento in California held its mayoral election, with Flojaune Cofer and Kevin McCarty advancing to a runoff.
The facts
The election was held with a two-round system for a four-year term. If no candidate received a majority, a runoff with the top two candidates would be held on 5 November. The election was officially non-partisan, with party affiliations not listed on the ballot.
Sacramento factfile:
- Population: 524.9 thousand (2020)
- Religions: Many have no religion, but Christianity (and Catholicism) is the largest religious group, with Buddhists and Muslims examples of minorities
- Ethnicities: Non-Hispanic White 30.3%, Hispanic or Latino of any race 28.8%, Non-Hispanic Asian 19.5% (including Chinese, Filipino, Indian and others), Non-Hispanic Black or African American 12.6%, Non-Hispanic Mixed Race or Multiracial 6.1%, Non-Hispanic Pacific Islander 1.6%, Non-Hispanic Nativa American or Alaskan 0.4%, Non-Hispanic Other 0.6%
- Type of government: Council-manager city in a federal presidential republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: N/A, United States score: 83/100 (Free)
The incumbent, Darrell Steinberg, is not running for re-election. A member of the Democratic Party, Steinberg worked as an attorney before being elected to Sacramento City Council for the 6th district in 1992. He served until 1998, when he was elected to California’s State Assembly for the 8th district, serving until 2004. In 2006, he was elected to the State Senate for the 6th district, and in 2008 became President pro tempore, serving as President pro tempore until 2016, and soon after leaving the State Senate. In 2016, he was elected Mayor of Sacramento.
Steinberg was eligible for a third term (something not usually possible) because of changes to the mayoralty, but decided instead to run for California Attorney General. Six candidates ran to replace him. Jose Avina runs a fitness business, while Flojaune Cofer is an epidemologist. Julius Engel is an asset protection manager, with Steve Hansen a former councillor. Kevin McCarty is a Democrat who worked as a political advisor until 2004, when he was elected to Sacramento City Council for the 6th district. He served until 2014, when he was elected to the California State Assembly for the 7th district, being redistricted to the 6th in 2022. Finally, Richard Pan is a Democrat who was a professor before being elected to the State Assembly for the 5th district in 2010. He served this district until 2012, when he was redistricted to the 9th district, and served until 2014, when he was elected to the State Senate for the 6th district, where he served until 2022.
Four main candidates received attention: Cofer, McCarty, Pan, and Hansen. These are ordered from left to right: in Sacramento, most candidates are liberal, but Cofer was considered the most progressive and Hansen the most moderate. Cofer received the endorsement of two councillors, Our Revolution, the local Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and Working Families Party (WFP) branches, The Sacramento Bee newspaper, and several unions. Hansen was endorsed by two current councillors, the local Police Officers Association and several LGBTQ+ organisations. McCarty was endorsed by Vice Mayor Caity Maple and a few unions, with Pan endorsed by the county district attorney and a state senator.
In the election, Flojaune Cofer won 26,287 votes (28.3%), with McCarty on 20,269 (21.8%). Therefore, those two proceeded to the runoff. Pan received 20,107 (21.6%), with Hansen on 19,738 (21.2%). Avina took 5,619 (6.1%) and Engel 920 (1.0%).
Analysis
Sacramento is the capital city of California, the biggest, and one of the bluest, states in the union. Among the fastest-growing cities in the state, it is reliably Democratic. California used to be a bellweather state, picking the winner in every race from 1916 to 1996 bar two: picking losing Republicans in 1960 and 1976. However, since 1992 it has only picked Democrats, and went 63.5% Democratic in 2020, being a non-competitive state easily won by Democrats every time. Sacramento County, which contains Sacramento, was actually a bit less Democratic, going 61.4% for Joe Biden in 2020. Its history is quite interesting: in 1924 it voted for the Socialist candidate (running as a Socialist in California but a Progressive nationwide), Robert M. La Follette (Robert Marion La Follette), at a time when the state Democrats were moribund (unthinkable today, La Follette was actually a dissident Republican). They were saved by Franklin D. Roosevelt (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) in 1932, and the county became very reliably Democratic, even voting for the Democrat in Republican landslides in 1952 and 1956 and indeed every election until 1968. Though it became a bellweather from 1968 to 1996, like its state it has grown completely Democratic since 1992 (an eight-in-a-row streak that shows little signs of changing). It was still competitive, and very close in 2004, but since Barack Obama’s 2008 landslide it has been a walkover for the blue team. The county includes suburban and rural areas, it can be estimated that the city of Sacramento is probably more Democratic.
In 2000, after the incumbent died, Democrat Heather Fargo was elected mayor, beating fellow councillor Rob Kerth in a pretty tight race. She won easily in 2004, but in 2008 she lost to Democrat Kevin Johnson, who was a well-known former basketball player. Johnson was re-elected easily in 2012, but stepped down in 2016. Darrell Steinberg won pretty easily in 2016 and faced no proper opposition in 2020. This made 2024’s race the most competitive in years. Two candidates, Kevin McCarty and Richard Pan, have served in California’s state legislature before. McCarty is an incumbent assemblyman and Pan a former member of both houses. Hansen is a well-known councillor. But it was a candidate who had not served in public office before, Flojaune Cofer, who took the most votes. An unashamed progressive, she outflanked her opponents to the left. This will be noted and will be a disappointment to Republicans. They have hoped to make inroads in major cities. Their message is that though the cities are naturally liberal, progressive policies have led to rising crime, overspending, and other issues, and that voters will switch to tough-on-crime conservatives. There is some evidence of this, with New York constituencies being crucial in the Republicans’ narrow victory in the 2022 House election. However, here, a progressive won, even without the name recognition of her opponents.
Maybe that is too premature. Though she won the first round, she has a tough runoff to fight. Kevin McCarty only just squeaked into the runoff, beating Richard Pan by 150 votes and Steve Hansen by just five hundred. However, he may now be considered a likely winner as he could attract more Pan and Hansen voters. A six-month run-off campaign means we wont be hearing the end of it for some time, and anything can happen to shake it off. However, the results shows that progressive Democrats are still going strong and still do have support in the big blue cities.
Earth Elects 
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