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Dunkley: Belyea holds seat for Labor
On 2 March, the Australian electorate of Dunkley held a by-election, which was won by Jodie Belyea of the Australian Labor Party.
The facts
This by-election is to complete a three year term in the House of Representatives, Australia’s lower house, that began in 2022. The election will use ranked-choice voting with the ‘alternative vote’ system.
The first part of this series covered the Liberal preselection This election was caused by the death of incumbent MP Peta Murphy of the Australian Labor Party (Labour is written Labor in this context).
Labor selected Jodie Belyea, a local community leader, as their candidate, after speculation that both Murphy’s husband and a former Premier. In 2022, Murphy won 40.2% of the first-preference vote and 56.3% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Labor candidate Jodie Belyea The opposition Liberal Party of Australia selected Nathan Conroy, a local mayor, over Donna Hope and Bec Buchanan in a three-way vote. The Liberal candidate won 32.5% of the first-preference vote in 2022, and 43.7% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Software engineer and activist Alex Breskin represents the left-wing and green Australian Greens. The Green candidate got 10.3% of the first-preference vote in 2022.
Darren Bergwerf, an activist, is running a conspiracist ‘sovereign citizen’ campaign. He won 3.9% of the first-preference vote in 2022.
Independent candidate Darren Bergwerf Human resources worker and activist Chrysten Abraham is running for the right-wing libertarian Libertarian Party, who recieved 2.5% of the first-preference vote in 2022.
The businesswoman and activist Bronwyn Currie was running for the animalist Animal Justice Party (AJP), which recieved 2.1% of the first-preference vote in 2022.
Two other candidates ran representing parties that did not run in 2022. Landscaper Heath McKenzie represented the centrist Australian Democrats.
Finally, the teacher and activist Reem Yunis represented the left-wing Victorian Socialists party.
The seat was created in 1984 and was won by Labor, but flipped to Liberal in 1990. Labor won it in 1993, but after it was flipped backin 1996 it stayed Liberal until 2016, even during the Labor national victories of 2007 and 2010, reaching a peak of Liberal support in 2004. Even though the Liberals won the 2019 election, it was flipped by Murphy, who made it a safe seat in 2022 before her 2023 death to breast cancer. Though by-elections normally trend away from governments, in 2023 Labor became the first sitting government to flip a seat in a by-election, although they failed to flip another and in fact saw a swing away from them. Polling showed the race on a knife-edge, and one conservative group spent $300,000 in an anti-Labor campaign, described by Labor sources as a “fear campaign”.
In the first-preference vote, Jodi Belyea of the Australian Labor Party won 37,418 votes or 41.1% (up 0.8%). Nathan Conroy of the Liberal Party of Australia won 35,746 votes or 39.2% (up 6.7%). Alex Breskin of the Australian Greens won 5,798 votes or 6.4% (down 4.0%). Darren Bergwerf, an independent, won 4,315 votes or 4.7% (up 0.9%). Brownwyn Currie of the Animal Justice Party won 2,818 votes or 3.1% (up 1.0%). Chrysten Abraham of the Libertarian Party took home 2,246 votes or 2.5% (down 0.0%). Reem Yunis of the Victorian Socialists won 1,529 votes or 1.7%, and Heath McKenzie of the Australian Democrats took 1,242 or 1.4%. In the two-party-preferred vote, Belyea took 48,019 votes or 52.7% (down 3.6%), while Conroy won 43,093 or 47.3% (up 3.6%). Thus it was a Labor hold, with a swing away of 3.6%. 4.1% of votes were informal and turnout was 83.8% (down 6.3%).
Analysis
This by-election was a pretty handy hold for Labor, although there was a substantial swing away from the red team. The media narrative was happy to attribute that to the loss of the personal vote for Peta Murphy, whose well-publicised struggle against the breast cancer which ultimately took her life made her a popular figure. Australia’s politics, for the most part, has been a two-party system, although the federation of former British colonies began with three parties: Labour, Protectionist, and Free Trade. Labour soon ‘modernised’ to Labor, and the Protectionists and Free Traders, who at the end of their life became the Anti-Socialist Party, merged into the Liberal Party. Under Labor’s Billy Hughes, the government supported conscription in World War I against the party’s wishes, so he split to form a National Labor Party which soon merged with the Liberals to form the Nationalist Party. A group of rural interest parties would form a Country Party, who formed a Coalition with the Nationalists, that would be practically unbroken. The Nationalists merged with some conservative Labor members to form the United Australia Party, which rebranded back to the Liberal Party after World War II. In 1975, the Country Party became the National Country Party (NCP) and then the National Party. That brings us to today’s two-party system, with Labor on the centre-left, and the centre-right split between the senior Liberals, who run in urban and suburban areas, and the junior Nationals, who run in rural areas (generally).
A Liberal Party poster, showing Labor as its main foe. There is a two-party system with Labor and the Liberals, although in rural areas, the Liberals are switched for the Nationals. The Liberal-National alliance is known as the Coalition, but unlike a normal coalition is near-constant, even when the parties are in opposition
The Division of Dunkley, in Victoria, dates back to the 1984 election. Labor’s Bob Hawke had won the 1983 election but the 1984 vote was held to bring both houses in the bicameral system back into line. This election saw the House of Representatives gain seats, with Dunkley a new seat being held. Bob Chynoweth was MP for the seat of Flinders in 1983, but moved over to this new seat in 1984 following central office intervention after he lost preselection to a left-winger. This vote saw Chynoweth win by about 1,200 votes over the Liberal on the two-party-preferred (2PP) vote. Interestingly, a National candidate run as well but only win 2.6% of the vote and the party soon stopped bothering. The Democrats, once an important third party due to their sway in the Senate, took 6.1%. In 1987, a landslide win for Hawke, Chynoweth expanded his lead to 1,900. Hawke’s majority was cut in 1990, with Dunkley one of the seats that the Liberals took. Chynoweth lost significant vote shares to both Liberal Frank Ford and Democrat Peter Lindemann, with the Democrats improving to 13.2%. In the 2PP vote, Ford won by 1,600 votes. Ford directed an engineering firm. After this close race, Hawke lost confidence in much of the party and was challenged in a leadership spill by Treasurer and former Deputy PM Paul Keating in 1991. Hawke survived and Keating retreated to the backbench, but months later another challenge succeeded. Under Keating, Labor won another victory in 1993, and flipped back Dunkley. The Democrat vote collapsed and Chynoweth was the main beneficiary, beating Ford by 850 votes.
Bob Chynoweth, Labor MP for Dunkley from 1984 to 1990 and 1993 to 1996 Under John Howard, the Coalition won a landslide in 1996. Boundary changes had made Dunkley a Liberal seat anyway, and a 1.0% swing led Chynoweth to be defeated by five thousand votes by Liberal Bruce Billson, who had previously worked as an advisor. In 1998, when early elections were held to try and capitalise on tax cuts, the Coalition won a reduced majority. Billson survived a 1.3% swing to win by 3,100 votes. However, in 2001 there was a 3.9% swing towards Billson, who won by 8,500 votes. Howard’s Coalition won another majority. This was also the first election with a new party coming third, that being the Greens, who overtook the Democrats. In 2004, Billson won a majority of first preference votes, winning the 2PP vote by about 15,500. That election was a Coalition landslide. That would be the peak of Liberal dominance in Dunkley. In 2007, Labor won back power under Kevin Rudd. In Dunkley, Billson won by seven thousand votes but survived a 5.3% swing. With Labor behind in polls in 2010, Rudd was challenged by his Deputy, Julia Gillard, and due to lack of support Rudd ended up not running as a candidate and Gillard was elected unopposed. In the 2010 race, Labor and the Coalition were tied, but Gillard held on with independent and Green support. Despite Labor’s losses nationally, in Dunkley, Labor gained votes off the Liberals, although they lost a significant share to the Greens who won 11.7% of the vote. These votes transferred back to Labor in the 2PP vote for a 3.0% swing and 1,750-vote victory for Billson. In 2012, rumours started to begin that Rudd was challenging Gillard, and calling these rumours attacks, Rudd resigned as Foreign Minister. Gillard called a leadership spill where she defeated Rudd. In 2013, former leader and Regional Development Minister Simon Crean resigned, calling for a spill, but Rudd did not run and Gillard was re-elected unopposed. However, months later, bad polling for Gillard led to more rumours. Gillard called for a spill and was defeated by Rudd. In the end, Rudd’s second premiership lasted only months as he was defeated by the Coalition in a landslide under Tony Abbott. Billson defeated Labor’s Sonya Kilkenny, now a minister in Victoria’s state government, by 9,800 votes on a 4.5% swing. Billson became Minister for Small Business in the Abbott government.
Bruce Billson, Liberal MP from 1996 to 2016 After a defeat in the 2015 Queensland election, a spill motion was attempted against Abbott, but this failed. However, later in 2015 momentum had continued against Abbott, and Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull successfully ousted him. Turnbull sacked Billson and Billson then retired as MP at the 2016 election. Turnbull led the Coalition to a narrow victory. Chris Crewther, a lawyer had stood in a rural (National) seat in 2013 but was successful in this suburban seat in 2016, despite a 4.1% swing towards Labor’s Peta Murphy. The margin was just 1,550 votes. With the moderate Turnbull behind in polls, conservatives rallied, but Home Minister Peter Dutton failed in a challenge. However, the margin was close enough for a second spill motion, where Turnbull did not run as a candidate after it passed. Dutton ran again, with Julie Bishop running for the moderate faction. However, Treasurer Scott Morrison, who is from the centre-right faction (in between the moderates and conservatives) defeated both. In the 2019 vote, he led the Coalition to another slim majority. However, boundary changes made Dunkley a notional Labor seat. Though Crewther held on to the most first-preference votes, but enough Green transfers existed to elect Murphy on a 1.7% swing, by 5,400 votes. Unlike Abbott and Turnbull, Morrison held on for a full term, however, he was defeated by Labor in 2022. In total, Labor won 77 seats, while the Coalition won 58: 27 for the Liberals, 21 for the Liberal National Party (LNP), which was created when the Queensland Liberal and National branches merged, and ten for the Nationals. The Greens won four seats, while the conservative Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and liberal Centre Alliance, both regional forces in other states, won one seat each. Notably, ten independents were elected. The Nationals did not lose a single seat, with the seats being lost by Liberals: that is to say, in urban and suburban areas. A phenomenon known as the ‘teal independents’ took root, with teal combining Liberal blue with green. Though not a party, they mostly targeted Liberal seats in urban and suburban areas, where the aspirational middle class may have been put-off by right-wing politics and therefore abandoned the Liberals. This effect was more pronounced among women, who were more likely to be teal candidates as well. This was a Labor majority. In Dunkley, the Liberal vote share declined and Murphy took the seat by twelve thousand votes on a 3.5% swing. Anthony Albanese became PM, despite Labor losing primary vote share to the Greens and teals; many of these votes would have been transferred back (and in the latter case, often taken from Liberals). The Liberals then elected Peter Dutton as leader.
This was an important election for Liberal Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton and Labor PM Anthony Albanese Victoria has been a pretty good place for Labor in recent years. In the 2022 federal election, the Victorian seats were split 24-11 Labor (with the Coalition seats being eight Liberal, three Nationals), with three independents and a Green rounding it off. Labor ruled the state from 1999 to 2010, and in 2014 they defeated the one-term Liberal government, making Daniel Andrews the new Premier. Andrews won a landslide in 2018, and his second term was associated with tough but popular COVID-19 restrictions. This led to right-wing media calling him “Dictator Dan”, which probably just led to a backlash. In 2022, Andrews won another landslide, with 56 seats compared to the Coalition’s 28 (nineteen Liberals and nine Nationals), with four Greens as well. Andrews retired in 2023 and was replaced by his deputy Jacinta Allan, who was elected unopposed. Andrews was rumoured as a figure for this by-election, perhaps signalling its importance, although these rumours led to nothing. Labor also apparently tried to entice Murphy’s widower Rod Glover to run, but this also was unsuccessful. As well as the successes in state parliament, Albanese’s Labor managed to swing the federal Victorian seat of Aston in a 2023 by-election on a 6.4% swing, the first time a government had won a by-election off the opposition since 1920, when the sitting Labor member was expelled by Billy Hughes for attacking the British Empire, and the Nationalists won the by-election. Those strange and anachronistic circumstances aside, a government flipping a by-election is unheard of in Australia. This success wasn’t repeated in other parts of the country: a by-election in the ultra-safe Fadden in Queensland led to the LNP winning and in fact having a 2.7% swing towards them. A key policy for Albanese was an indigenous voice to Parliament, also known simply as The Voice. The Voice was to be an advisory body for Australia’s indigenous population, which was mistreated during the colonial years and many years after Federation, and still suffer huge inequality. However, in a surprise turnaround, ‘No’ won a 2023 referendum with 60.1%. Every state voted No (although the Australian Capital Territory did vote Yes), but Victoria was the least ‘No’-voting state, with 54.2% against the proposal. Labor, as well as the Greens, were fully in favour of the proposal. The Coalition was generally opposed, although not entirely, with many significant Liberal figures either in favour or at least mostly silent: Victorian Liberal leader John Pessutto eventually said he would vote no but not campaign. The Nationals were more confidently against it, while Dutton did oppose it but only quite meekly, stating there should be local bodies instead.
The victory of the ‘No’ side in the Indigenous Voice referendum of 2023 was a big defeat for Anthony Albanese The defeat in the Voice referendum coincided with a polling slide for Labor, falling behind the Coalition in primary vote, although they still lead in the 2PP vote as the majority of Greens will transfer to them. The by-election in Aston, the Indigenous Voice referendum, and now this by-election saw many point to a rise in negative campaigning. Labor has campaigned on painting Dutton as an extreme hard-right figure, while the right has been targeting Albanese. The conservative pressure group Advance spent huge sums on anti-Labor campaigning, in perhaps the biggest activist campaign in a by-election in Australian history. Advance was a significant factor in the shock success for the No campaign, running a sophisticated three-pronged strategy. Firstly, the main Advance pages would focus on conservative, anti-Labor criticisms of the Voice. However, they would also run progressive pages, criticising the voice for not going far enough and advocating a no vote. Finally, they would run pages which puported to be neutral news sources but would post biased one-sided coverage. In Dunkley, they spent money on social media advertising as well as so-called ‘truth trucks’, which would drive around with anti-Labor messaging: notably, they focused on criticisms of Labor rather than support for the Liberal candidate.
An Advance ‘truth truck’ calls on voters to rank Labor last in the by-election Of course, this attempt failed when Labor’s Jodie Belyea held on by just under five thousand votes. Labor’s primary vote share was up, but this was mostly from gains from the Greens which were then lost to the Liberals. The Liberal Nathan Conroy also benefitted from the lack of candidates from the smaller right-wing One Nation and United Australia Party (UAP). A 3.5% swing is not a bad return, and would win the Coalition the election if repeated nationwide. The Liberals said it was a “strong message” to Labor. However, ultimately after all the effort put in, Labor still won, and could put off the swing to the lack of an incumbency bonus, especially as Peta Murphy was the former MP, and she was well known thanks to her advocacy for people like her with breast cancer. Albanese appeared joyful, stating that Labor’s gender diverse, majority female party had defeated a negative campaign led by the Liberals and Advance, which was “dominated by blokes”. Certainly, the Liberals have seen to be struggling with women. In 2012, Julia Gillard defended the Speaker Peter Slipper, who was dogged by sexual assault accusations. Tony Abbott attacked Gillard for this, but Gillard made a famous speech where he accused Abbott of misogyny in turn. Though Gillard ended up being defeated by Abbott, over the course of the Coalition government (2013-2022), female voters ended up abandoning the Liberals for Labor, the Greens, or teal independents. The idea that the Coalition has a ‘woman problem’ has been touted, although when the Liberals lost the Aston by-election, Dutton made a big deal in the campaign of the candidate being female. Certainly, when you picture an ex-Liberal voter who left the party in 2022, you may picture an aspirational, middle-class ‘career woman’ who is either young or middle-aged, who voted for the pro-business, low-tax Liberals, but is also socially progressive and did not trust the more conservative party. The bushfires of 2020 were blamed on the Coalition’s mixed environmental record. However, the idea that it is a problem with Peter Dutton or the Liberals in reality is probably questionable. In fact, in many English-speaking First World countries, the same is occurring: middle-class voters are abandoning the right: in the US, they are turning towards the Democratic Party, and in the UK, they voted for Remain and are frequently choosing the Labour Party or Liberal Democrats. This realignment has its benefits for the right as well, as working-class voters will often go in the other direction. Other gaps have opened, with there being an urban-rural split (urban voters being more progressive), an age one (younger voters being more progressive), and a gender gap, with women supporting Labor/Labour/Democrats. This will hurt the Coalition more than most: Australia is an urban country, with a large portion of its rural ‘outback’ uninhabitable and the population concentrated in coastal major cities. Thus, the Coalition is not just fighting national issues, but global trends.
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Punjab: PML-N claim victory thanks to PR seats
On 8 February, the Pakistani province of Punjab held provincial elections, with victory going to the Pakistan Muslim League (N).
This is the third part of articles on the 8 February elections in Pakistan. Part two, on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is available here The facts
The 371 seats of the Provincial Assembly are elected for five-year terms. 297 seats are elected in first-past-the-post constituencies. Based on the total won by each party, 66 seats are proportionally assigned to women, and eight to non-Muslims.
Punjab factfile:
- Population: 127.7 million
- Religions: Islam 97.8% (Mostly Sunni, some Shia), Christianity 1.9%, Others 0.3% (2017)
- Ethnicities: No precise data, but groups include Punjabis, Saraikis, and others
- Type of government: Self-governing province in a federal Islamic parliamentary republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: N/A, Pakistan score: 35/100
In 2018, the largest party was the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). They took 33.7% of the vote and 123 general seats, plus 33 for women, and four for non-Muslims, for a total of 160. Later, 24 independents joined the party, giving them 184 in all. They are led by Mian Aslam Iqbal. In 2001, Iqbal (at the time not in any party) was elected Nazim (convenor, similar to a mayor) of Union Council 106, the Samanabad neighbourhood in Lahore, serving until 2002, when he was elected to the Provincial Assembly for PP-148 (Lahore-XII). In 2003, he was named Provincial Minister for Tourism, serving until 2007. He lost his seat to the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) in the election. In 2013, he joined the PTI and was elected back to the Provincial Assembly for the PP-148 seat, serving until 2018. At the 2018 election, he was elected to the PP-151 Lahore-VIII seat. He was then named Provinical Minister for Industries, Commerce and Investment. In 2019 he received the additional portfolio of Information and Culture, but resigned it later that year. In 2022 he stepped down as Minister due to a change in government. He continued to be in the Assembly until the 2023 dissolution. The PTI are banned from contesting for failing to contest intra-party elections, although their candidates still ran as independents.
PTI leader Mian Aslam Iqbal Second-placed in 2018 was the Pakistan Muslim League (N). They won 129 general seats, plus thirty women and the remaining four non-Muslim seats. This totalled 163, and an independent joined to make it 164. Their leader is Maryam Nawaz. In 2013, she was appointed the Chairwoman of the Prime Minister’s Youth Programme, being the daughter of incumbent PM Nawaz Sharif. In 2014, she resigned due to a court order labelling it as nepotism. In 2023 she was appointed Senior Vice President of the PML-N.
PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz The Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML-Q) took 1.2% of the vote and seven seats in 2018, plus two women’s seats for a total of nine. They then had an independent join, leaving them with ten seats. The incumbent Chief Minister, Pervaiz Elahi, was from this party. A local politician that started his career in the Islami Jamoori Ittehad (IJI), Pervaiz became Minister for Local Bodies and Rural Development in Punjab after the 1985 election, serving until 1993, when the IJI broke up. He was part of the PML-N, and later in 1993 became Acting Leader of the Opposition in Punjab until 1996. After the 1997 vote, he became Speaker of the Punjab Assembly, serving until the 1999 coup. After the restoration of democracy in 2002, Pervaiz joined the PML-Q. He was elected to the Provincial Assembly for the PP-292 (Rahimyar Khan-VIII) seat, and after the PML-Q’s victory became Chief Minister of Punjab, serving in both roles until the 2007 dissolution. In 2008 he was elected to the National Assembly for the NA-58 (Attock-II) constituency, and became Leader of the Opposition. However, later in 2008 he stepped down from the latter post. In 2011, he was named Federal Minister for Industries and Federal Minister for Defence Production, in 2012 the latter post was swapped for that of Deputy Prime Minister. He continued to serve as Deputy Prime Minister and as an MNA until the 2013 dissolution. In 2013, he was re-elected, this time for the NA-105 (Gurjat-II) constituency. He was soon replaced as Industries Minister, but served as an MNA until the 2018 dissolution. In 2018, he was elected back to the Provincial Assembly for the PP-30 (Gurjat-III) constituency. He was named the Speaker, and also briefly served as Acting Governor of Punjab. He served as Speaker until 2022. In 2022, the PTI made him Chief Minister in exchange for the PML-Q’s support in the no-confidence motion in parliament. He served as CM and lawmaker until the 2023 dissolution. After this, he defected to the PTI and became PTI President.
Outgoing Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi defected from the PML-Q to the PTI during the caretaker government The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) won 5.4% of the vote and six seats, plus the last female seat for a total of seven in 2018.
One more party came away with a seat in 2018, despite not running. The Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party (PRHP, Pakistan True Path Party), a far-right Islamist party, saw an independent join after the fact.
Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party logo All-in-all, independents won 18.6% of the vote and thirty seats. However, 24 members joined the PTI, and one each joined the PML-N, PML-Q and PRHP so only three members remained independent.
A number of other parties also ran. The far-right Islamist Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (Here-I-Am Movement Pakistan, TLP, “Here-I-Am” refers to an important Muslim prayer) won 5.7% of the vote and no seats in 2018. Other parties that didn’t run last time but do this time include the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), and the Pakistan Muslim League (Z) (PML-Z).
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan logo After the 2018 election, a PTI-PML-Q coalition was formed, with the PML-N in opposition. During the national crisis against Imran Khan in 2022, a no confidence motion was also placed in the PTI Chief Minister, Speaker Pervaiz Elahi, and Deputy Speaker. The CM resigned, and the opposition PML-N candidate went up against Pervaiz from the PTI coalition. Several PTI members voted for the PML-N candidate, leading to a fight and the victory of the PML-N candidate after some MPAs were arrested. However, the electoral commission then removed the PTI defectors from their seats, with five being for reserved seats and the other twenty leading to by-elections, of which the PTI held fifteen seats. This was enough seats to hold onto a majority (with the PML-Q) and elect Pervaiz CM. The election was delayed several times but finally ocurred in 2024. The PTI ban led to them being ineligible for the reserved women’s and minority seats. After Pervaiz Elahi announced that the PML-Q could merge with the PTI, but this led to squabbles with the party leadership. Instead, all the PML-Q MPAs joined the PTI. The PTI faced restrictions on rallies. The PML-Z merged into the PTI, but then claimed not to have done and ended up running separately.
The PML-N ended up winning the election with 32.1% of the vote. This won them 138 seats, plus 57 female seats and seven minority seats, for a total of 202. Fifteen independents later joined, leaving them on 217. The PTI-backed independents took 34.0% of the vote, winning them 114 seats, although seven later left the party to join the PML-N, PPP or ITP, leaving them on 107. The Pakistan People’s Party won 5.5% and ten seats, plus four women’s seat and the last non-Muslim seat for a total of fifteen. They later had an independent join to improve their caucus to sixteen. The Pakistan Muslim League (Q) won 1.2% of the vote and eight seats, plus three female seats for a total of eleven. The Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party won 1.6% and one seat, plus the last two women’s seats for a total of three. Three independents later joined, giving them a total of six. The Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan won 6.8% and one seat, while the Pakistan Muslim League (Z) also won 0.3% and one seat. Independents won a total of 15.3% of the vote and 23 seats, although twelve members later joined parties, leaving the total on eleven. One seat remained vacant due to the death of a candidate.
The PML-N took the North Punjab region 13-11 over the PTI. In Central Punjab, the PML-N was 21 seats clear of the PTI, with this also being the main area the PML-Q won seats. South Punjab was the one region won by the PTI over the PML-N, and also where all PPP seats came from. By division, the PML-N took Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Lahore, Sahiwal, and Multan, while the PTI won Mianwali, Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, and Dera Ghazi Khan. The PML-Q took Gujrat (specifically the Gujrat District), where seven of their eight seats came from. Maryam Nawaz became Chief Minister after the election.
Analysis
The PTI’s election ban, though circumvented, was costly here as reserved seats for women and minorities led to the PML-N winning a majority. Punjab Province was won by the British East India Company from the Sikh Empire, which they annexed, in 1849 after the Second Anglo-Sikh War. In 1858, it became British territory, also adding Delhi. In 1901 it was split up with the new North-West Frontier Province, today known as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Delhi was separated in 1911. By now, the Indian independence movement was growing. Though most Hindus supported the Indian National Congress, many Muslims supported the All-India Muslim League, which wanted a Muslim homeland in the subcontinent. Elections in 1937 were won by the pro-British Unionist Party, but the Muslim League won in 1946. On indepdence, British India would be divided into two countries, India and Pakistan. Punjab would be divided into two provinces, West Punjab and East Punjab just before independence, with West Punjab joining Pakistan and East Punjab joining India. Partition also meant the change in religious composition due to migration, meaning West Punjab would become near-exclusively Muslim. West Punjab only held one election before being dissolved as part of the One Unit Policy, where west Pakistan’s provinces would be merged into one, West Pakistan, to try and contest the importance of East Pakistan. Democracy was suspended in the coup of 1958 and martial law, which lasted until the 1970 election. As part of the restoration of constitutionality, West Pakistan was dissolved and the old provinces restored. What was West Punjab was now just Punjab. The Indian state also was named Punjab in 1956, thus leading to confusion: in this article, Punjab will refer to the Pakistani province. The 1970 vote saw the Awami League, based in East Pakistan, win a majority, but the West Pakistan-based military establishment were unwilling to give power to them. East Pakistan by now had a number of grievances, and this was the last straw. After protests were crushed brutally, they declared and successfully won independence as Bangladesh. What was formerly West Pakistan was now the whole of Pakistan. The rump of Pakistan was dominated by the socialist Pakistan People’s Party, which was removed in a coup in 1977. Democracy was restored again in 1988, with the PPP being the left of a two party system against the Pakistan Muslim League (N). The last election was held in 1997 and won by the PML-N of Nawaz Sharif, a former Chief Minister of Punjab from 1985 to 1990. In Punjab, the PML-N won a landslide and Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz Sharif became Chief Minister. However, their government was ended by a 1999 coup by Pervez Musharraf.
Pakistan has had a number of military coups, with Pervez Musharraf’s in 1999 being the most recent After this, Musharraf restored democracy in 2002, but formed his own Pakistan Muslim League (Q) which won the election. The PML-Q also defeated the PPP and PML-N in Punjab, making Pervaiz Elahi CM. In 2008, the national PML-Q declined in a win for the PPP, with the PML-N second. They also fell to third in Punjab, behind the PML-N and PPP. A PML-N-PPP coalition was formed under Shehbaz Sharif, and survived even when the PML-N expelled the PPP due to what they claimed was corruption in the PPP-led federal government. In 2013, the PML-N took power federally, with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf replacing the PML-Q as the third party. In Punjab, the PML-N won a huge landslide while the PTI came second. Nawaz Sharif was PM and Shehbaz Sharif CM, although Nawaz was later removed for corruption. In 2018, the PTI defeated the PML-N and PPP to take power nationally in a minority under their leader Imran Khan. In Punjab, they were just short of a majority, so were backed up by the PML-Q. The PTI and PML-N were the sole major parties, with the PML-Q and PPP very small in this huge legislative body. Usman Budzar became CM. Imran Khan was removed in a vote of no confidence in 2022, led by the PML-N and PPP, who among others called themselves the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). Khan did secure the PML-Q’s support, in exchange for Pervaiz Elahi becoming CM again (as he had been from 2002 to 2007). Buzdar resigned for Pervaiz, but then some PTI dissidents voted for the PDM nominee, Hamza Shehbaz (son of Shehbaz Sharif), allowing Hamza to become CM. This was unconstitutional as members can be disqualified for voting against party orders, and they were. By-elections led to PTI members winning the majority of seats. However, a new concern emerged: the national PML-Q now supported Hamza Shehbaz, while the provincial party supported Pervaiz Elahi. Accordingly, PML-Q votes were initially rejected, before it was ruled that actually, the provincial party’s word mattered. Finally, Pervaiz Elahi became CM again.
The quid pro quo between the PTI and PML-Q began by the resignation of Uzman Buzdar led to a constitutional drama in Punjab Since the removal of Imran Khan, the PTI and its supporters have claimed a number of injustices against them, such as biased institutions, including the court that jailed Khan, and the election ban. Though they could run as independents, they could not use their electoral symbol or be eligible for the female and minority seats. Although it was justified for failing to meet regulations on intra-party elections, their supporters claimed foul. Pakistan’s “Establishment”, dominated by the military, has often been accused of rigging elections, or at least putting their thumb on the scale, and doing the same in most political sectors such as media, courts, election commission and so on. PTI supporters claimed the national election was stolen after election commission results seemed to change after showing PTI leads. In Punjab, there was a different problem for the party. They won slightly less seats despite more of the vote, 138 to 114, in first past the post, something that can occur due to vote efficiency. However, being ineligible for proportional seats allowed the PML-N to claim nearly all of them, giving that party 64 more seats and a majority. Maryam Nawaz became the fourth member of the Sharif dynasty to become CM, including Hamza Shehbaz’s short and legally dubious tenure. She is also the first female Chief Minister of Pakistan. Her uncle Shehbaz Sharif is now Prime Minister in coalition with the PPP, as he has been since 2022. Imran Khan remains in jail. However, Pakistan’s politics has had so many twists lately, it is unclear how long this situation will last, with the next election scheduled for 2029.
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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: PTI-backed independents win a majority
On 8 February, in the Pakistani province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, an election was held, with the majority of seats won by independents affiliated to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
The facts
The unicameral Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly has 145 seats, elected for five-year terms. 115 seats are elected in first-past-the-post voting. Then, seats are assigned proportionally based on constituency seats, with 26 for women and four for non-Muslims.
This election was held on the same day as Pakistan’s general election, read to find out more on Pakistan’s parties and leaders Khyber Pakhtunkhwa factfile:
- Population: 40.9 million (2023)
- Religions: 99.8% Muslim (mostly Sunni), 0.1% Christians, 0.1% Others (2017)
- Ethnicities: No precise data, but majority group is Pashtun. Minorities include Gurjars and Awans. Afghan nationals are a significant minority, with groups including Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, and Gurjars.
- Type of government: Self-governing province in a federal Islamic parliamentary republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: N/A, Pakistan score: 35/100 (Partly free)
The last election was held in 2018. At this time, there were only 122 seats: 99 general seats, 22 for women, and three for Non-Muslims. After the election, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which was ruled by the federal government, was incorporated into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This added sixteen new general seats, four more women’s seats, and one more non-Muslim seat, which were elected in 2019. The top party was the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who won 34.1% of the vote and 65 general seats, plus sixteen women and two non-Muslims for a total of 83. Two independents elected then became PTI members, giving them 87 seats. In 2019, they won 25.1% of the vote and five general seats, plus two for women and the one for non-Muslims, for a total of 93 elected seats and 95 in all. The party’s leader is Ali Amin Gandapur. Gandapur was first elected as a PTI member for the Assembly in 2013, for the PK-64 Dera Ismail Khan-I constituency. He became Provincial Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for Revenue and Estate. In 2018, he gave up his seat in the Assembly and ministry for one in the National Assembly, NA-39 (Dera Ismail Khan-I), serving until the body’s dissolution in 2023. In 2023, he was named President of the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Furthermore, the incumbent Chief Minister, Mahmood Khan, came from this party. A former local politician first elected to the Provincial Assembly for the PTI in 2013, Khan represented the PK-84 (Swat-V) constituency, and was named Provincial Minister for Sports, Culture, Tourism and Museums, until the 2018 election. In 2018, he was elected to the PK-9 (Swat-VIII) seat, and became Chief Minister, holding his seat and post until 2023 when the government and parliament was dissolved for the election (the government was handed over to a caretaker government). The PTI is banned from running by the electoral commission for failing to hold intra-party elections. However, candidates can still run as independents.
The second-placed party in 2018 was the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), who won 18.0% of the vote and ten seats, plus two women’s seats and the last non-Muslim seat for a total of thirteen. In the 2019 vote, they did not run, having broken up. The constituent parties have a total of thirteen seats to defend.
Third in 2018 was the Awami National Party (ANP), who won 12.9% of the vote and seven seats, plus two female seats for a total of nine. They also won 6.7% of the vote and a general seat in 2019, giving them ten overall.
The Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) was fourth in 2018, with 10.5% of the vote and five general seats, plus one for women for a total of six. In 2019, they added no seats from 1.1% of the vote, so defend six seats this time. Their leader is Amir Muqam. A local politician, in 2002 he was part of the MMA when he was elected to the National Assembly for the NA-31 Shangla constituency. However, later in 2002 he defected to the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML-Q) as he supported the PML-Q government. In the PML-Q administration, he was named Minister for State of Water and Power in 2004, until a 2006 reshuffle when he became Federal Minister for Political Affairs, until 2007 when the caretaker government came in (and parliament was also dissolved so he ceased being an MNA). He was re-elected in 2008, serving until the 2013 dissolution, after which he lost re-election to a PTI candidate. By now he had defected to the PML-N having fallen out with the PML-Q leadership. In the new PML-N government, he was named Advisor to the Prime Minister on Federal Departments within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, serving until the 2018 election.
PML-N leader Amir Muqam The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) also ran in 2018, winning 9.7% of the vote and four seats plus the last women’s seat for a total of five. In 2019 they won 3.9% of the vote but no seats, so they come into this race with five seats.
The PML-Q did not run in the 2018 election, but one independent defected to them afterwards anyway. They did not run in 2019 either. Six independents won seats with a total of 14.9% of the vote, although two defected to the PTI and one to the PML-Q, leaving them with three. In 2019, they won 39.3% of the vote and six seats plus a women’s seat for a total of seven, leaving them on ten in total. The election was postponed in two constituencies in 2018 due to the death of a candidate. After the MMA had split, its two contingent parties won seats in 2019. The first was the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (JUI-F), who took three general seats and the last women’s seat for a total of four on 15.6% of the vote. They are led by Akram Khan Durrani. Durrani had previously served as Chief Minister when the province had its old name, North-West Frontier Province, from 2002 to 2007. He was elected an MNA in 2013 for NA-26 (Bannu) and became Minister for Housing and Works until 2017 when the Prime Minister resigned. However, a few days later the new PM re-appointed him to that role, and he served until the 2018 dissolution, when he also vacated his seat. In the 2018 election, he joined the Provincial Assembly for PK-90 (Bannu-IV), and then became Leader of the Opposition, serving in both roles until the 2023 dissolution. The other party is the Jamaat-e-Islami, who took one seat from 7.8% of the vote.
Akram Khan Durrani, JUI-F leader, Leader of the Opposition and former Chief Minister There was one prominent new party as well, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians (PTI-P) (Pakistan Movement for Justice Parliamentarians), a centre-right PTI splinter.
In 2018, the PTI won a landslide, and Mahmood Khan even survived in 2022 when Imran Khan was removed as Prime Minister, and showed support winning a by-election off the ANP later that year. The PTI-P was founded after the 2023 protests, when Khan attacked a former Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Among the defectors were Mahmood Khan, although by now the caretaker government was running the province so he was no longer CM. The PTI also attacked the carteaker government for being biased to the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), who now ruled federally, and so the election commission forced the removal of several members. The PTI were banned from running due to failing to hold intra-party elections, meaning they have to run as independents and cannot win the proportional women’s and minority seats. However, they could still run as independents and polling put them miles ahead.
In the end, PTI-backed independents won 40.8% of the vote and 87 seats. Four elected true independents also joined the group after leading to a total of 91. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) won 15.3% of the vote and seven seats. They also took ten female seats and two non-Muslim seats for a total of nineteen. The PML-N took 5.7% of the vote and five seats, plus eight women’s seats and one minority seat, for a total of fourteen. Two independents later joined giving them a total of sixteen in the new legislature. The Pakistan Peoples Party took 5.7% of the vote and four seats, as well as six women’s seat and the last non-Muslim seat, totalling eleven. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Parliamentarians notched 2.6% of the vote, enough for two seats and a women’s seat for a total of three. The Awami National Party won 8.7% of the vote and one seat, plus the last women’s seat for two in all. The remaining seven seats were won by independents, who totalled 12.3% of votes, but as four joined the PTI bloc and two joined the PML-N, only one independent remains. Two seats remained vacant due to candidates dying (and were later won by the PTI). Jamaat-e-Islami won 6.2% of the vote and no seats, while other parties won 2.7% and no seats.
The PTI bloc won a majority in every division apart from Dera Ismail Khan, where they won four of eight seats. The JUI-F seats came in Lower Kohistan (Hazara), Peshawar (Peshawar), Kurram (Kohat), two in Bannu (Bannu) and two in Dera Ismail Khan (Dera Ismail Khan). The PML-N took two in Shangla (Marakand), one in Mansehra (Hazara) and two in Peshawar. The PPP took two in Peshawar and two in Dera Ismail Khan. The PTI-P’s two seats came in Peshawar and North Waziristan (Bannu), with the ANP winning one in Peshawar. Independents won seats in Upper Kohistan, Kolai-Palas, Torghar (all Hazara), Charsadda, Peshawar (both Peshawar), Kurram, and Lakki Marwat (Bannu). PTI-backed candidates were elected Speaker and Deputy Speaker, and Gandapur became the new Chief Minister in a PTI government.
Analysis
After the partition from the British Raj, India and Pakistan became two separate countries, with their own rights to divide their country. The area today known as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was won by the British East India Company from the Sikh Empire in 1849 after the Second Anglo-Sikh War, when the Company (who would later be dissolved and the area ruled directly by the UK) would annex the whole of the Sikh Empire. It became part of Punjab, but in 1901 a new North-West Frontier Province was created. In 1947, the Province had a referendum on joining Pakistan or India. 99.0% of those that voted voted to join Pakistan, but there was a substantial boycott due to the lack of options to join Afghanistan or become independent. However, turnout was high enough (51.0%) that a majority did vote to join Pakistan. In 1947, it became part of the new Dominion of Pakistan. The largest province in Pakistan was East Pakistan, a large exclave, that was mostly Bengali. There was tension between the elite, based in the west, and those in East Pakistan, who wanted more power. To try and counter the importance of East Pakistan, the provinces in the west were merged into one in 1955, West Pakistan, and the North-West Frontier Province ceased to exist, having only held one election (in 1951). After the coup in 1958 by Ayub Khan, provincial governments were abolished anyway, although provinces remained. In 1970, as martial law was supposed to be winding down, Yahya Khan abolished West Pakistan and revived the old provinces, including the North-West Frontier Province, as part of the preparations for an election. The election saw the Bengali nationalist Awami League sweep East Pakistan leading to an overall majority, while the socialist Pakistan Peoples Party won big in the areas that had made up West Pakistan. The military establishment refused to let the Awami League rule, leading to protests which were crushed brutally. In the end, Bangladesh fought for, and won, its independence. This did at least finally end the question of relations between west and east. The rump of Pakistan now had a clear leader in PPP leader Zulkifar Ali Bhutto, who became Chief Martial Law Administrator despite being a civilian, and then President before a constitution was written and the Presidency restored. After the contested 1977 election, Bhutto was removed in a coup by Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and again both the civilian federal and provincial governments were removed.
The PPP was the most popular force in west Pakistan, which later became the whole of Pakistan after the independence of Bangladesh. Zulkifar Ali Bhutto became President and then PM, but was removed in a 1977 coup. Democracy wasn’t restored until Zia died in 1988. The PPP would win under Benazir Bhutto, the daughter of Zulkifar Ali Bhutto, and a two-party rivalry would emerge between them and the PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif. The last coup occurred in 1999, leading to a three-year period under Pervez Musharraf. In 2002, the PML-Q was formed to contest the election with Musharraf’s support, and won. As well as the PPP and PML-N, the Islamist MMA did well in that election. In the North-West Frontier Province, the MMA won the most seats with 48. The Pakistan Peoples Party (Sherpao) (PPP-S), a splinter from the PPP named after is leader, won nine, the ANP and PPP eight each, the PML-Q six, the PML-N five, the (at the time minor) PTI one and the other fourteen for independents. The MMA ruled the province under Amran Khan Durrani until the 2008 election. Nationally, the PPP was the main force, with gains for the PML-N as well and losses for the PML-Q and MMA. In the North-West Frontier Province, the ANP took 42 seats, the PPP 24, the MMA fourteen, the PML-N and PPP-S seven each, the PML-Q six, with the remaining 24 going to independents. An ANP-PPP coalition ruled from 2008 to 2013 under Haider Khan Hoti. In 2010, the province was renamed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as part of wider constitutional changes. The next election was in 2013, when the PML-N won big and Nawaz Sharif took power. The PPP fell to second and the PTI became the third force. The PTI made a breakthrough in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with 48 seats. The JUI-F won sixteen, the PML-N fifteen, and the PPP-S, who had renamed to the Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) eight. Jamaat won seven, with thirty going to independents and minor parties. A PTI-QWP-Jamaat coalition was formed under new CM Pervez Khattak.
Pervez Khattak served as PTI Chief Minister from 2013 to 2018 The PTI took power in 2018 nationally, leading to Khattak as Minister of Defence. Mahmood Khan replaced him, with 85 seats for the PTI, thirteen for the MMA (combination of JUI-F and Jamaat), nine for the ANP, six for the PML-N, five for the PPP, and one for the PML-Q, with three independents. One of the last acts of the PML-N government was to merge the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which had been ruled centrally in Islamabad with a undeveloped political system, into the province. This area only received an adult franchise in 1996 and was often a place where human rights (which are anyway often reduced in Pakistan) were formally repealed. The justification was its closeness to Afghanistan, where there would often be unrest, such as the Mujahideen’s battle with the Soviet Union and the War on Terror. Though there was some controversy, most politicians accepted this way as a solution to the area’s status. They held supplementary elections in 2019, with the PTI taking eight more seats, the JUI-F four, Jamaat and the ANP one each, and seven for independent. This being a place of strength for the PTI, it was a province which helped them to power in 2018. However, though they were big in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in other areas other parties managed to do well enough to prevent a majority, and remove Imran Khan in a parliamentary vote in 2022, leading to the PDM coalition of the PML-N, PPP, and others. The protests in favour of Khan have meen massive and transcended Pakistan’s borders to the country’s big diaspora.
The removal of Imran Khan in 2022, and subsequent persecution of him, has had a big impact on Pakistani politics and society In 2023, Khan was arrested in a corruption case, leading to mass protests which sometimes spilled into riots. Some PTI members left the party to condemn them, with allegations from Khan’s supporters that the military establishment had either pressurised or bribed them. The PTI-P took both Pervez Khattak and Mahmood Khan after Khattak was expelled from the PTI for failing to respond to allegations he was trying to help people defect. This caused the formation of the new PTI-P party, which had an impressive list of names. The other main change to the landscape from 2018/2019 was the breakup of the MMA into the JUI-F and Jamaat parties. The ban of the PTI, albeit subverted, and prosecution of Khan has led many supporters to believe that the election was in some way rigged. In Pakistan’s national election, the PTI was the top party, but protesters believed they had won a majority. The military establishment may have put their thumb on the scale. However, this vote does at least show that the vote has some power in Pakistan, even if elections are flawed. The PTI bloc won a big majority after gaining a big share of the vote, leading to their seat count holding up even without the reserved seats. The JUI-F inherited most of the MMA support, with Jamaat losing all seats. The JUI-F, PML-N, and PPP form the bulk of the opposition as the PTI-P flopped, with Pervez Khattak not even winning his seat. Like in the federal election, the PTI members then joined the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC, Ittehad means Unity), a right-wing Islamist party, in order to form a combined bloc in parliament and a government. The party, though more religiously conservative, follows Khan’s anti-Americanism, but is also opposed to both the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban as well. The SIC’s main relevance will simply be as a proxy party for the PTI, most of which has authority centred around Imran Khan’s personal charisma and little else. The PTI and its supporters are not going away soon, and this chapter in Pakistan’s often dramatic political history is still being written.
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May: Panama, Dominican Republic, and South Africa among countries to pick leaders
The year of elections, 2024, does not slow down in May, with a barrage of elections in all six inhabited continents.
On 2 May, the United Kingdom held local elections. With a parliamentary tradition going back centuries, the UK’s parties emerged from the Whig and Tory factions, who differed on the monarchy, and over time evolved into the Liberal and Conservative parties. The Liberal Party found itself split in the interwar era, and by the time it had resolved its differences the Labour Party had replaced it as the main flagbearer of the left. Labour won a huge majority in the 1945 election after World War II, and strengthened the British welfare state, something the Conservatives came round to in a period known as the “postwar conensus”. However, the 1979 victory of Margaret Thatcher would end this, as she instead brought about neoliberal policies. Labour would be controlled by the left-winger Michael Foot after this, leaving Labour centrists to quit and form the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which breathed new life into the Liberal Party by going into alliance; the two parties later merged into the Liberal Democrats. After this, Labour itself moved to the right, “triangulating” traditional Labour values with Thatcherism in a system known as the Third Way, or by the branding leader Tony Blair used at the time, New Labour. With a massive landslide for Blair in 1997, the Conservatives sought to modernise, with the liberal David Cameron winning power in 2010. However, this led to a rise in the right-wing Eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP), and to stop stemming votes to the latter, Cameron promised a referendum on European Union membership if he won the 2015 election. Win it he did, but he resigned after the Leave option won the referendum in 2016. Meanwhile, the Labour Party after suffering defeat elected left-winger Jeremy Corbyn as leader in 2015. Though he initially struggled, in the 2017 election campaign he performed well, costing the Conservatives their majority. What followed was two years of chaos as Brexit deals were blocked in Parliament, and Corbyn, who was among other things beset by antisemitism scandals, had alienated his own party’s moderates and other opposition parties too much to form a coalition against the Conservatives. In 2019, former UKIP leader Nigel Farage returned to lead the Brexit Party, who won the European election, while the Liberal Democrats, the most anti-Brexit party, came second. After this, Prime Minister Theresa May resigned and was replaced by former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, who after himself failing to push Brexit through, called an election to “get Brexit done”, which he won on a huge majority, with Labour’s Brexit position much more complicated. After this, Labour elected moderate Keir Starmer as leader, who has engaged in a purge of left-wingers over the course of his leadership, with Corbyn’s own whip suspended. A lawyer by profession, he has adopted a moderate and professional image, as well as a patriotic one, as opposed to Corbyn, who was an unashamed progressive. Johnson at first received kudos for his leadership in the pandemic, but minds were quickly changed and his own integrity caught up with him, with a number of scandals ending his leadership. He was replaced by Liz Truss, who overrode the Office for Budget Responsibility in a “mini-budget” that led to economic chaos, and she was quickly out as the shortest-serving Prime Minister in the UK’s history. The Conservative Party changed the rules to make it harder to run and the more moderate former Chancellor Rishi Sunak was selected, and though their poll numbers recovered a bit, they have slowly stagnated with Labour miles in front, and the Conservatives have lost ground to Labour and the Liberal Democrats in by-elections, while also seeing their polling decline to theweBrexit Party, now known as Reform UK. Local elections are a significant benchmark for party leaders’ performance in the UK. Elections are only being held in England for councils, while all police and crime commissioners (PCCs), which exist in England and Wales, were up for election. A total of 912 metropolitan borough seats, 482 unitary authority seats, 1344 district council seats, ten mayors (not including London), and all PCCs are up for election. London elections are also being held. As these elections were expected to be bad for the Conservatives, the main focus was on Conservative-held positions. The mayoralty of Tees Valley was held by Conservative Ben Houchen, who beat a candidate from a Labour-led alliance with 72.8% of the vote in 2021. However, Houchen was considered to have a much tougher time against the same alliance’s Chris McEwan this time. Meanwhile, in the West Midlands, Mayor Andy Street won with 54.0% of the runoff vote (runoffs have now been abolished) in 2021, and despite having a better reputation than Conservatives in Westminster, also had a tough fight against Labour’s Richard Parker. In the end, the main story is the dismal results for the Conservatives. Though Houchen held on, a rare positive for the Tories, the shock defeat of Street grabbed headlines. In the end, nearly half of Conservative incumbents lost election, meaning they came third in terms of seats behind the Liberal Democrats. For Labour, a positive picture, with caveats: though they won swing voters back off the Conservatives, they did shed some voters, especially in university areas and amongst Muslims to the left-wing Green Party: this is due to the party’s position on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Rishi Sunak (Conservative), Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 2022 On the same day, the British city of London held mayoral elections. As part of the New Labour reforms, devolution was planned, and applied to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and London; further plans were scuppered by the defeat of a referendum in North-East England. The 1998 London referendum was passed with 72.0% support. London had been basically a bellwether of the country at large: in the 1983 Conservative landslide, the Tories won 56 seats and Labour 26, but in the 1997 Labour landslide, Labour won 57 and the Conservatives eleven. The first London election was held in 2000. Ken Livingstone, a left-wing Labour figure was a leading candidate. He had led the Greater London Council, which had squabbled with Margaret Thatcher, who abolished it and instead gave more authority to borough councils. Tony Blair was no fan of the left-wing Livingstone, and used an electoral college system to give priority to MPs and MEPs in London in order to stop Livingstone getting the Labour selection; instead it would go to Frank Dobson. Dobson’s heart was never in it, and Livingstone ran as an independent candidate. Livingstone won the first round ahead of Conservative Steven Norris, Dobson, and the Liberal Democrat Susan Kramer, allowing Livingstone to become Mayor after defeating Norris in the instant runoff. In 2004, Livingstone was let back into Labour to avoid splitting the vote, and their previous candidate stood aside. He was first in the first round, joining Norris in a runoff, eliminating the Lib Dems’ Simon Hughes and UKIP’s Frank Maloney. Livingstone again emerged victorious. However, in 2008, Livingstone had met his match and was second in the first round to the Conservatives’ Boris Johnson, with Lib Dem Brian Paddick eliminated. Johnson had emerged as a celebrity as the Conservatives suffered through the Blair years, with his eccentric and personality winning him fans and making him pretty much the only popular Conservative. Johnson won the runoff to become London’s first Conservative mayor. Like Livingstone, Johnson was a popular, outspoken, charismatic figure, and defeated Livingstone in a 2012 rematch. In 2015, Johnson was elected MP and decided not to stand for re-election as Mayor in 2016. Labour’s Sadiq Khan, who was Shadow Secretary of State for Justice in the 2010-2015 parliament, defeated Conservative Zac Goldsmith. Goldsmith, much like Johnson in the 2000s, was seen as a uniquely “humane” Conservative due to his green credentials, but a campaign where “dogwhistle” politics was used against Khan’s Muslim faith, including those targeting Hindu and Sikh voters, permanently damaged Goldsmith’s career. The next election was delayed to 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Khan defeated the Conservative Shaun Bailey, who himself was accused of bigotry, by 55.2% to 44.8% in a runoff. The runoffs have now been abolished, and Khan is running for re-election. Hated by right-wingers for a fuel tax used to fund public transport, the rise in crime in London, and his progressive, “woke” persona, he is a heavy favourite anyway. Even after the Conservatives won the country back in 2010, London has remained a Labour city despite Johnson’s own personal popularity: it was the one place that did not abandon Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. Khan led every poll, with former Conservative Group leader on the London Assembly Susan Hall about fifteen points behind. Khan has appealed for Lib Dem and left-wing Green Party votes due to the new voting system, and painted Hall as a right-wing extremist. The other major candidates are Green Zoë Garbett, Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie, and Reform UK’s Howard Cox, but none were expected to fight for anything other than third. In the end, Khan won comfortably with a 3% swing in his favour.
Sadiq Khan (Labour), Mayor of London since 2016 On the same date, the British city of London held elections to its quasi-legislative body, the London Assembly. The Assembly needs a two-thirds majority to block the Mayor, and therefore it proves more of a deliberative body than anything else, holding the Mayor to account. Elections, with the mixed PR system, have always been held in tandem with mayoral elections, starting in 2000. There, Labour and the Conservatives won nine seats each, with four for the Lib Dems and three for the Greens. In 2004, the Conservatives were the largest with nine, Labour won seven, the Lib Dems five, and the Greens and UKIP two each. In 2008, the Conservatives won again with eleven, Labour had eight, the Lib Dems three, the Greens two, and the far-right British National Party (BNP) one; UKIP lost both their seats. In 2012, Labour made gains to win twelve seats, the Tories won nine, with the Greens and Lib Dems on two each, the BNP lost their seat. In 2016, Labour won twelve, the Conservatives eight, the Greens and UKIP two each and the Lib Dems one. The most recent election was held in 2021, delayed due to the pandemic, with Labour winning eleven, the Conservatives nine, the Greens three and Lib Dems two; by now UKIP had faded as an electoral force. This time, Labour were miles ahead as the Conservatives look to lose significant support to Reform UK. In fact, only one seat changed on the council: Reform UK gained one seat from the Tories, as the PR system balanced out any constituency changes. The swing from the Tories to Reform UK was just under 5%.
Andrew Boff (Conservative), Chair of the London Assembly from 2021 to 2022 and again since 2023 On the same date, the British constituency of Blackpool South held a by-election. Blackpool South spent most of its history as a Tory stronghold, being created in 1945, a year Labour won a landslide, but still won easily by the Conservative Roland Robinson (incumbent MP for the old constituency of Blackpool) ahead of Labour and Liberal candidates. In 1950 Robinson again easily beat Labour and Liberal opposition, and in 1951, when the Conservatives won back power, he easily beat only Labour opposition. In 1955 and 1959 he easily won a two-horse race, and held on without much danger despite a 7.6% swing at the 1964 election, when Labour won power again, and Robinson retired. The winning candidate was the lawyer-turned-bureaucrat Peter Blaker. A 4.0% swing in 1966 made it closer still, but in 1970 a Liberal candidate entered and took votes nearly exclusively from Labour, making the seat safe again. At the Februrary 1974 election the Liberal overtook Labour into second but in October 1974, Labour retook second; Blaker won both polls easily. During the Thatcher years the seat stayed Tory: in 1979 Blaker won easily, as he did in 1983, where the SDP were very close to second. In 1987, Labour rebounded to clear second, while in 1992 Blaker retired, and Nick Hawkins, a barrister and Conservative activist was elected, in a much closer race. With Tony Blair’s Labour miles ahead, Hawkins abandoned Blackpool South for a safe seat in the 1997 election, and Labour’s Gordon Marsden, who lost to Hawkins in 1992, duly picked up the seat with a majority of over 11,500. He won easily in 2001 and 2005, and survived a 6.2% swing in 2010. In 2015, the Lib Dems collapsed and UKIP rose to third, but little changed with the top two parties. In 2017, UKIP collapsed but their vote spread equally between Marsden and his Conservative opponent. However, in 2019, the Johnson landslide, the Conservative Scott Benton won on 9.3% swing, defeating Marsden. Benton was a Conservative activist and councillor. However, when he was filmed by journalists appearing to offer leaking of confidential information and lobby ministers in exchange for money from journalists posing as gambling lobbyists, he was suspended, allowing for a recall petition; he resigned before he could be recalled. Labour’s Chris Webb, Marsden’s former assistant, was expected to win easily against the Conservatives David Jones and Reform UK’s Mark Butcher. That is exactly what happened, on a gargantuan 26% swing: Jones was if anything happy to finish ahead of Butcher, albeit by just one hundred votes, the best result for Reform under that name.
Scott Benton (Conservative), MP for Blackpool South from 2019 to 2024 On the same day, the Canadian provincial constituency of Lambton—Kent—Middlesex in Ontario staged a by-election. Canada’s federal politics were traditionally split into the Conservative and Liberal parties, with the former being renamed the Progressive Conservative Party (PC) in 1942. During the government of Brian Mulroney, the Conservatives lost support to the Reform Party, which later became the Canadian Alliance. With the split between the conservative forces allowing the Liberals to win easily, they merged as the Conservative Party of Canada in 2003. The current federal government is a Liberal one led by Justin Trudeau, who defeated the longstanding Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper in 2015, and won minority mandates in 2019 and 2021. However, he is currently miles behind the Tories in polling for the next election next year. Minor parties include the New Democratic Party (NDP), a social-democratic party, and the Quebec nationalist Bloc Québécois (Quebecer Bloc). Canada was split into provinces in a federal system, after Confederation in 1867. In what was previously the British “Province of Canada”, Canada East became Quebec and Canada West became Ontario. A two-party system also emerged in Ontario, with Conservative and Liberal parties. From the 1871 election to the 1905, Ontario was governed by the Liberals, who finally lost to the Conservatives in 1905. This would be the first of four victories for James Whitney, but in 1919 the Conservatives would lose not to the Liberals, but the United Farmers of Ontario (UFO), an agrarian party. This ran as a left-wing force, shocking the Conservatives and Liberals. However, they lost the 1923 election to the Conservatives and declined after that, especially after a split. The Liberals won the 1934 election, proving that Ontario was a two-party system again, with the farmers now a minor force. Some of the UFO movement joined the national Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), the main union party at the time in Canada, and indeed for two years the UFO was affiliated to the CCF until this agreement ended due to the CCF being accused of communist influence. In 1943, the CCF rose to second behind the (now renamed) Progressive Conservatives in a Liberal defeat. This began a long period of Conservative dominance, as the CCF declined to third in 1945, but came second again in 1948, and got hammered in 1951. The CCF became the NDP in 1961, just as it had done nationally. In 1967, the NDP strengthened in third, and overtook the Liberals in 1975. The strong Liberal and NDP combined performance in 1975 and 1977 cost the PCs a majority, but the split also meant they were the largest party. The NDP declined in 1981 and the PCs won a majority. In 1985, the PCs won the most votes but lost their majority, and were finally ousted for the Liberals in a vote of no confidence. The Liberals won a landslide in 1987 as the PCs slid to third. However, in a shock in 1990, the NDP won a majority, defeating the Liberals and PCs. They were in turn destroyed by the PCs in 1995 as the NDP slid to third. The electoral map was redrawn with less constituencies for 1999, when the PCs won again. The current seat of Lambton—Kent—Middlesex was created, and the PC Marcel Beaubien, incumbent for the old Lambton constituency, beat his Liberal opponent by less than one thousand vots. In 2003, the Liberals beat the PCs, with Dalton McGuinty becoming the new Premier. During this time, the NDP was a minor force. In Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Beaubien lost by about 3,500 votes to Liberal Maria Van Bommel. The seat boundaries were changed slightly for the 2007 election, where McGuinty’s Liberals beat the PCs again. In Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Van Bommel beat her PC opponent by about three thousand votes. In 2011, the Liberals won again, although without a majority amidst PC and NDP gains. In Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Van Bommel was routed by her PC opponent, councillor Monte McNaughton, who she had defeated in 2007. The NDP doubled their vote share to come a strong third. Scandals and controversy were rising against McGuinty, who responded to budgetary problems by banning teachers from striking, leading to victory for the NDP in a crucial by-election (which if the Liberals had won would have given them a majority again), and the cancellation of gas plants at huge cost in important seats, which led to a parliamentary inquiry and a motion of contempt against his Energy Minister. McGuinty resigned in 2013, and was replaced by Kathleen Wynne, Minister of Muncipal Affairs and Housing as well as Minister of Aborginal Affairs in a tough and closely fought leadership election. In 2014, the NDP voted against the budget and so Wynne called an early election. She won a majority as the PCs declined, and the NDP held firm in third. In Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, McNaughton held on easily as the NDP rose to second. Again, the boundaries were changed slightly at the next election. In 2018, Wynne’s Liberals were destroyed, coming third as the PCs under Doug Ford won a majority. Ford is from a politically important family in Ontario, as his brother Rob Ford was Mayor of Toronto, the province’s capital. The PCs won 76 seats, the NDP forty, and the Liberals seven. The remaining seat went to the left-wing environmentalist Green Party. In Canada’s federal politics, there are six parties that are considered ‘major’ in a loose sense: the Liberals and Conservatives, who can win elections; the NDP and BQ, who will win a big chunk of seats; and the Greens and People’s Party (PPC, a right-wing offshoot of the Conservatives), who fight for a few seats. This was the Greens’ first seat in Ontario. McNaughton beat his NDP opponent by over eleven thousand votes in 2018, as the Liberals retreated to minor party status. The PCs won a bigger majority in 2022, with 83 seats; the NDP won 31 and the Liberals eight, despite the fact the Liberals won more votes. This was because the NDP racked up seats in Toronto and the Liberals, though often the main opposition in rural seats, were less likely to actually win them in the first-past-the-post system. In Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, McNaughton won easily as the NDP lost nearly half their vote, the main beneficiaries of which were the PCs, Liberals, and right-wing splinter New Blue Party. McNaughton resigned in 2023 to join the private sector for a company mostly focused on horse racing and gambling. In polling for the next election, due to be held by 2026, the Liberals have overtaken the NDP but the PC lead is pretty much the same. Polling also suggested the Liberals will rebound to second in this by-election, but the PC candidate councillor Steve Pinsonneault would easily defeat both Liberal local mayor Cathy Burghardt-Jesson and NDP community leader Kathryn Shailer. That is basically what happened: Pinsonneault’s vote held up, but Burghardt-Jesson overtook Shailer: the NDP to Liberal swing was about 10.5%.
Monte McNaughton (Progressive Conservative), MPP for Lambton—Kent—Middlesex from 2011 to 2023 On the same day, the Canadian provincial constituency of Milton in Ontario would hold a by-election. Milton was basically the same as the old constituency of Halton, which had been PC from 1999 but lost to the Liberals in 2014. After the redistricting, Milton was still a notional Liberal seat, but in 2018 the MPP for Halton and Minister of Education Indira Naidoo-Harris lost to the PCs’ Parm Gill, a former Conservative MP in the national parliament. The NDP also came a strong third. In 2022, Gill held on by about 1,700 votes as the Liberals made a strong challenge thanks to a collapse in NDP votes. Gill resigned after being named as Conservative candidate in the next federal election. With the NDP vote declining in favour of the Liberals, this by-election is being watched more closely as the Liberals believe they have a chance here with tight polling. The PC candidate Zee (Zeeshan) Hamid had a tough fight against the Liberal Galen Naidoo Harris, son of Indira Naidoo-Harris and political staffer, while Edie Strachan represents the NDP. A win would give impetus to the Liberals, who elected a new leader in Bonnie Crombie in 2023, as they look to establish themselves as the main opposition to the Progressive Conservatives for the next election. However, though the Liberals pushed, they could not blow the house down: any votes they gained from the NDP were lost to the PCs, who only increased their majority.
Parm Gill (Progressive Conservative), MPP for Milton from 2018 to 2024 On 4 May, the Australian state of Tasmania held periodic elections for its upper house, the Legislative Council. In Tasmania’s upper house, there are fifteen seats for six-year terms, every year a couple of seats (in this case three) were up for re-election. Australia’s political system has historically been a two-party system, with the Australian Labor Party on the left. The right was unified when the Free Trade and Protectionist parties merged into a Liberal Party, which went through several name changes, splits and mergers, but ended up at the Liberal Party name again. A rural conservative party, the Country Party was formed, and spent most of its history in a Coalition with the Liberal Party; thus Labor and the Coalition are the two current forces. Minor parties include the Greens, considered an alternative to Labor on the left, and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (Pauline Hanson being its leader and founder) on the right. Elections were first held as part of Australia in 1903 and won by the Protectionists, with the Free Trade Party the main opposition. Before that, Tasmania was a British colony and had similar elections with the party system having emerged before Confederation. In 1906, the Protectionists, now named the Anti-Socialist Party, won the election with Labor making gains as the third force, and in 1909 Labor became the main opposition as the Protectionists (renamed the Liberal Democrats) won only one seat. They had merged into the Liberal Party by 1912, when they won the election, and a two-party system emerged. By 1919, Labor had split: the Labor government clashed with the party over supporting for World War I conscription, and senior figures formed their own party which merged with the Liberals to form the Nationalists. The Country Party emerged in Tasmania for the first time in 1922, but it fell apart before the 1925 election, where Labor won amidst a Nationalist split, which ended in time for the 1928 election, won by the Nationalists. The two-party system remained until the end of World War II, when the Nationalists, mirroring the national party (who had already changed their name to the United Australia Party or UAP) refounded as the Liberal Party. Thus, a Liberal-Labor two-party system was in effect. Labor governed from 1934 to 1969, when the legislature was tied 17-17. The Country Party had come back but had no success in Tasmania, until a Liberal MP defected, renamed the party the Centre Party, held onto his seat and was the tiebreaker, allowing the Liberals to govern in Coalition. However, in 1972 the Coalition was broken, the Centre Party disappeared, and Labor won again. The Liberals finally won a majority in 1982. They lost power in 1989, with independent “Greens” needed to prop up Labor. The Liberals won power back in 1992, but Labor won a majority in 1998 under Jim Bacon, who would also win the 2002 election. Bacon, who was terminally ill, retired in 2004 and replaced by Deputy Premier Paul Lennon. Meanwhile, the Greens had now become a formal party. In 2006, Lennon defeated the Liberals and Greens, but perception of graft (even though no formal charges were brought against him) meant Lennon resigned in 2008. He was replaced by Education Minister David Bartlett. In 2010, the Liberals and Labor were tied, but the Greens propped up Labor, allowing Bartlett to continue. However, in 2011 Bartlett retired. Deputy Premier Lara Giddings replaced him. However, the Liberals won a majority in 2014, allowing Will Hodgman to become Premier. Hodgman led the Liberals to another victory in 2018 but retired in 2020. He was replaced by Peter Gutwein, the state’s Treasurer. The Liberals’ majority of one was tested by the fact there was a Liberal Speaker, and so snap elections were held in 2021, which the Liberals won again with a majority of one. Gutwein stepped down in 2022, replaced by Deputy Premier Jeremy Rockliff. The latest election was held in March as the chamber was expanded from 25 to 35 seats. The Liberals won fourteen, Labor ten, the Greens five, and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN), a populist regional party three. Three seats were also won by independents. The Liberals govern propped up by the JLN and independents. The upper house has normally been a popular place for independents, but partisan candidates also contest. In 2018, Hobart saw independent Rob Valentine, the incumbent, defeat another independent for the seat of Hobart. Labor and the Greens did not contest the election and the Liberal candidate came third. However, this time there was Labor and Green candidates (John Kamara for Labor and the Green Cassy O’Connor, leader of the party from 2015 to 2023) and five independents. In Prosser, a new seat in 2018, a Liberal, Jane Howlett, narrowly defeated a Labor candidate. She ran in the 2024 lower house election, but no by-election was held due to this seat being contested in a regular election anyway. Liberal Kerry Vincent ran against Labor’s Bryan Green, who was Deputy Premier under Giddings and then Labor leader after they lost the 2014 election, but retired in 2017. Three other minor party or independent candidates were also running. Finally, in Elwick, a by-election is being held. Labor’s Josh Willie won it in 2016, and beat an independent and a Green in 2022, but stood down for the lower house in 2024. Labor’s Tessa McLaughlin faced Green Janet Shelley and independents Bec Thomas and Fabiano Cangelosi, a famous lawyer. Before the resignations of Howlett and Willie, the upper house had four Labor, four Liberal, and seven independent members: a rarity as party members were not normally in the majority. With big name figures in O’Connor and Green contesting two of the three seats, it seemed possible that Tasmania’s upper house will only have a minority of independents after this vote too. O’Connor managed to flip Hobart green, giving them representation in the upper house, as Labor’s John Kamara came third. Prosser stayed Liberal, with a 0.3% swing in Kerry Vincent’s favour. In Elwick, Bec Thomas won as an independent, capping off a bad day for Labor.
Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), Premier of Tasmania since 2022 On 5 May, Panama held general elections. Panama was a Spanish colony that won independence in 1821, joining Gran Colombia. Ecuador and Venezuela seceeded from the country in 1830, creating the Republic of New Granada, which in 1858 became the Granadine Federation after a new federal constitution was introduced. However, the president at the time, a conservative, was given powers by the Congress to subvert this, leading to Civil War, which was won by the liberals, who introduced new federalism with the United States of Colombia in 1862. However, in 1886, the conservatives restored centralism with the Republic of Colombia. With the creation of the Panama Canal, the United States of America wanted influence, and encouraged Panama, which already had a separate character, to declare independence, which they did in 1903. Panama inherited Colombia’s political parties: a Conservative Party and a National Liberal Party who dominated Panama’s early politics. Up to World War II, Panama was basically an oligarchy, with political parties and democratic elections. In 1936, the conservative parties styled themselves the National Coalition, the progressives were the Popular Front. However, in 1940, the right-wing demagogue Arnulfo Arias won the election, and removed in a 1941 coup in favour of Ricardo Adolfo de la Guardia Arango, a pro-Allied politician. Elections were restored in 1945, and direct elections in 1948, in a multiparty system: the winner came from the Liberal Union and Socialist Party alliance, the runner-up, Arias was from the Authentic Revolutionary Party, and a third candidate came from an alliance between the National Revolutionary Party and the Renewal Party. However, there was instability, as the winner Domingo Díaz Arosemana died of a heart attack, and his replacement was removed in a coup in favour of Arias, who himself could not escape police interference into his work, and was removed in 1951. The all-powerful police commander José Antonio Ramón Cantera himself was elected President in 1952, but assassinated in 1955. Still, his National Patriotic Coalition around Cantera made the election rules tougher so that only the National Liberal Party could exist as opposition in 1956, and won the election. However, they lost their dominance due to rioting and other issues and the coalition lost in 1960 to the opposition, which won again in 1964. In 1968, the election was won by Arias. One of Arias’ demands was that the Panama Canal Zone, which had been under American control since Panamanian independence, was returned to Panama. He also wanted to re-arrange the National Guard, who responded with a coup. The US, who were not in favour of the coup and its leader Boris Martinez, were happy to see him replaced by Omar Torrijos, who wanted to restore normal civilian politics to a degree, and months later Martinez was forced into exile in the US. Soon, a civilian, Demetrio B. Lakas (Demetrio Basilio Lakas) was allowed to become President, but Torrijos, leader of the junta actually ruled as Maximum Leader of the Panamanian Revolution; he managed to being the process of re-establishing Panamanian sovereignty over the Canal Zone. Indirect elections re-elected Lakas in 1972; in 1977 a referendum to give Panama and the US joint control of the Canal Zone, with it transferring fully to Panama in 1999 passed with 67.4% support. Torrijos died in a 1981 plane crash, and replaced by Rubén Darío Paredes. Paredes retired in a deal where Manuel Noriega would become junta leader and Paredes President, but after he retired Noriega instead arrested Paredes. Noriega was already losing support from the US when the 1989 election ocurred. He was indicted for drug smuggling and money laundering, and suspected of supporting enemy intelligence. In the election in 1989, the opposition candidate Guillermo Endara defeated Carlos Duque, Noriega’s candidate. Endara obviously beat Duque, despite official results, and Duque refused to go along with the scam. A non-state pro-Noriega paramilitary group than beat Endara, hospitalising him. The election was annulled, and the parliament made Noriega “Maximum Leader of the National Liberation”. The US then stepped up their presence in the Canal Zone, and Panama declared war on the US. The US invasion, Operation Just Cause quickly overwhelmed the regime, with Noriega fleeing to the Vatican embassy and then surrendering. Endara was sworn in as President, with elections next held in 1994. Endara’s party was named the Arnulfista Party after Arias, but their Democratic Alliance candidate Mireya Moscoso, the widow of Arias, lost the 1994 election to Ernesto Pérez Balladares of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). This was close to the Noriega regime but reformed as a centre-left party (with the Arnulfistas as the centre-right), and won as the leader of the United People Alliance against Moscoso and two other strong candidates. However, in 1999, Moscoso’s Union for Panama, led by the Arnulfistas defeated Martín Torrijos, son of Omar Torrijos from the PRD-led New Nation Alliance and the third-party Opposition Action Alliance. In 2004, Torrijos won for the PRD-led New Fatherland against Endara, running for the Solidarity Party and the Arnulfista-led Vision for the Country alliance, who came third. The businessman Ricardo Martinelli came fourth running for the centre-right Democratic Change (CD), but in 2009 was the candidate of an Alliance for Change in tandem with the Arnulfistas, who renamed themselves to the Panameñista Party, beating the PRD-led One Country for All and a third-party run from Endara which got nowhere. Juan Carlos Varela won in 2014 from the Panameñista-led The People First, beating the CD-led United for Change and the PRD candidates, thus showing a three-party system. In the last election in 2019 Laurentino Cortizo of the PRD-led Joining Forces defeated candidates from the CD-led Change to Wake Up, an independent in lawyer Ricardo Lombana, and the Panameñista-led Panama We Can. 35 seats of 71 in the National Assembly went to the PRD, 18 to the CD, eight to the Panameñistas, and five to the centre-right Nationalist Republican Liberal Movement (MOLIRENA), the other part of the Joining Forces coalition. Five also went to independents. Presidents are not allowed second consecutive terms. Martinelli left the CD to form a party called Realizing Goals (Realising Goals, RM) and was the leader in the polls for the election until his imprisonment for embezzlement. Replacement candidate José Raúl Mulino, former Minister of Public Security under Martinelli, led polls. Former President Martín Torrijos ran for the Christian conservative People’s Party, with the CD running Martinelli’s former Foreign Affiars Minister Rómulo Roux, and Lombana running for the new Another Way Movement (MOC), on an anti-corruption crusade. The Panameñista candidate José Isabel Blandón Figuero pulled out in favour of Roux, while the PRD’s José Gabriel Carrizo, the current Vice President, is far behind. Thus, a shakeup to Panama’s traditional party system looked in order. With most votes in, Mulino has won the election, with Lombana, Torrjios, and Roux behind. Carrizo finished sixth with less than 6%. However, the Parliament is very fragmented, with RM taking just thirteen seats of 71, and 21 members belonging to no party.
Laurentino Cortizo (PRD), President of Panama since 2019 On 6 May, Chad held presidential elections. Chad became part of the French colonial empire in 1900, and became part of French Equatorial Africa (AEF) in 1910, a federation. French Chad was declared a colony in the federation in 1920, previously being split between other parts. Though it was neglected, after Chad supported Free France in 1940 (France was occupied by Germany and in the rest a pro-German puppet regime was set up, though ‘Free French’ resistance existed mostly in the colonies or exile), France was more supportive of Chad, and after victory Chad became an overseas territory with French citizens rather than a colony in 1946. Elections were held in 1946 and 1947, and again in 1952: the dominant party for the African seats was the Chadian Democratic Union (UDT), which had links to Charles de Gaulle’s Rally of the French People (RPF), the main party for the European seats. The UDT had basically fallen apart though in 1957 as more radical nationalist parties took the stage, an Entente led by the Chadian Progressive Party (PPT) won the election. This election had universal suffrage and self-rule. In 1958, France held a constitutional referendum, if Chad voted ‘No’ it would get independence, but it voted ‘Yes’ with 98.3% support. Chad thus became autonomous in the French Community, as did a number of African states, and the French Republic itself. However, Chad became independent anyway in 1960. The first President of Chad was François Tombalbaye, from the PPT, who had led Chad’s last colonial government to independence. In 1962 he was re-elected in a National Assembly vote, but he quickly autocratised the country, banning all other parties, and dissolving the legislature. In 1969, he was re-elected as the sole candidate. In 1973, due to Africanisation, he renamed himself N’Garta Tombalbaye. As the economy faltered, his support waned and he lost support of the army, which he tried to purge. In 1975 he was assassinated in a coup. A Supereme Military Council was created, and Félix Malloum became President. From 1965, Chad had been fighting a civil war, with French help, against the National Liberation Front of Chad (FROLINAT), a coalition of left-wing and Islamist forces, the Liberation Front of Chad (FLT), which was also Islamist, the Volcan Army, an Islamist FROLINAT offshoot, an ethnic-based People’s Armed Forces (FAP), and another FROLINAT offshoot called the Armed Forces of the North (FAN), as well other groups and Libyan help. Some of these groups ventured in and out of the war at various times. The insurgency was caused by Tombalbaye’s dictatorship and his favouring of southerners (mostly Christian or following traditional African religions) over northerners, who were mostly Muslim. Even after Tombalbaye’s overthrow, the Civil War did not immediately end as the Malloum regime was also mostly southern. In 1978, an agreement was reached with FAN to form a unity government before constitutional assembly elections could be held, with the junta disestablished. Malloum was President, and the FAN’s Hissène Habré became Prime Minister. However, they later fell out and in 1979, Habré called a general strike and resumed the war. The govenrment broke down and Malloum had to resign. The FROLINAT’s Goukouni Oueddi was named President in a Transitional Government of National Unity (GUNT) under Nigerian guidance. Nigeria’s own interests then made Lol Mahamat Choua, the leader of a small ethnic group, President until all parties agreed on the Lagos Accord which ended the war and made Goukouni President again. In 1982, Goukouni was overthrown by Habré loyalists. In 1984, he turned the FAN into a party, the National Union for Independence and Revolution (UNIR). He was right-wing, Muslim, pro-France and US, and anti-Libya (a big supporter of Goukouni). In 1989, a constitutional referendum confirmed Habré as President, created a one-party state, and called for new elections with 99.9% support. In 1990, the Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS), a pro-Libyan group that operated in Sudan against Habré took power in a coup led by Idriss Déby, who became President. Though Déby promised democracy, he delayed this and eventually was pressured into talks by France. A constitution was finally agreed and passed in a 1996 referendum with 63.2% support. Elections were held in 1996, but were not free and fair. Déby defeated former Vice President and key figure in the 1975 coup Wadel Abdelkader Kamougué from the Union for Renewal and Democracy (URD) in a run-off. The MPS won a majority in 1997 parliamentary elections, with the URD the top opposition. In 2001, Déby won in the first round against six opposition candidates including Kamougué. Ngarlejy Yorongar of Federation, Action for the Republic (FAR) was second. The MPS also won amidst a boycott in 2002. In 2005, a constitutional referendum removed presidential term limits, which passed with 65.8%. In 2006, Déby won again in the first round, with Delwa Kassiré Koumakoye of the National Rally for Development and Progress second, as the main opposition boycotted. The MPS made new agreements with the opposition for a parliamentary election, next held in 2011, but the MPS won another big majority. This led to a boycott of the presidential election and an easy win for Déby. The 2016 election was competitive but won by Déby, Saleh Kebzazo of the National Union for Democracy and Renewal (UNDR) was second. Parliamentary elections kept getting delayed due to lack of funds. In 2021, Déby was re-elected with 79.3% support according to the provisional results. The next day it was announced that he was dead. Chad has faced a number of civil wars, with one breaking out in 2005: Chad, France, Libya, and two Sudanese opposition groups fought various rebels, which were connected to Sudan. In 2010, Sudan and Chad ended the conflict, but many rebels did not want to go back to Chad; instead some went to Libya, whose regime was falling apart. Rebel groups sided with various factions in the Libyan civil wars, and some returned to fight in Chad against Chadian and French troops. One of these groups was the Front for Change and Concorde in Chad (FACT), who clashed with the Chadian armed forces and managed to kill Déby, who was visting them on the frontline. His son, general Mahamat Déby, led a Transitional Military Council (TMC), a junta that declared the regular government dissolved. He announced a “National Dialogue” with rebel groups and opposition, but they were at best lukewarm. In 2022, he decided to dissolve the TMC and become Transitional President. Clashes broke out between the government and opposition after nearly every announcement, but elections went ahead with the junior Déby as the MPS candidate, and despite nine others he is considered guaranteed to win. Succès Masra, an exiled opposition leader who was then named Prime Minister in an agreement with the ECCAS was probably the main opposition, running for Les Transformateurs (The Transformers), a centre-left opposition party.
Mahamat Déby (MPS), President of the Transitional Military Council from 2021 to 2022 and Transitional President of Chad since 2022 On 7 May, India held the third phase of its general election. Under British rule, the resistance was led by the All-India Muslim League (AIML) in Muslim areas and the Indian National Congress (INC) in the rest, so a partition ocurred and the Muslim areas became Pakistan and the rest became India. The Congress was the dominant party: Jawaharlal Nehru governed India from independence in 1947 to his death in 1964, wile Lal Bahadur Shastri governed from then until his own death in 1966. After this it was the turn of Indira Gandhi, who in 1975 proclaimed a national emergency. The Emergency was a brutally oppressive period, justified by security threats. When it ended in 1977, Gandhi, who split from the INC to form her own Indian National Congress (R) (INC (R), the R stood for Requisitionists) lost to the big tent Janata Party (People’s Party). However, the JP was unstable and new elections were needed in 1980 as it fell apart. Gandhi now formed an INC (I), the I standing for Indira, and won power again. Sikh activists had called for greater autonomy for Sikhs, and when this was rejected, became militant, a bid to remove them hiding in a holy site, known as Operation Blue Star, with heavy weaponry led to her assassination in retaliation in 1984. Rajiv Gandhi, her son, became PM and won the election in a landslide, but lost power to a disparate coalition in 1989. In 1991, the INC (I) won power again under P. V. Narasimha Rao (Pamulaparthi Venkata Narasimha Rao), but lost power in 1996 amidst a rise for the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party, BJP). Again a coalition that relied on the INC (I) existed, but the INC (I) withdrew support in 1998 and new elections were held. The BJP formed a coalition under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and though this collapsed, got a full term in 1999. Also, the INC (I) reverted back to simply being the INC in 1996. By now, the main two parties led coalitions: in 2004, the BJP led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INC led the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). The UPA won the 2004 election and the INC’s Manmohan Singh became PM. The INC won again in 2009, but lost in a huge landslide in 2014 to the BJP under Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. In 2019, the NDA won another landslide. This time, the INC has dissolved the UPA, creating a broader alliance called the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). As well as a Hindu nationalist agenda, Modi has politicised and weaponised state institutions and his rule has led to accusations of democratic backsliding. The NDA still leads INDIA in polls, although the latter is expected to at least make some gains. As India is a large country, the election is held in geographic “phases”: this phase will be for Goa, Gujarat, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu, and parts of Assam, Bihar, Chhatisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashta, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir, although the constituency in Jammu and Kashmir was then delayed to the sixth phase for weather reasons.
Narendra Modi (BJP), Prime Minister of India since 2014 On 8 May, North Macedonia will hold the second round of its presidential election. Macedonia was part of the ethnic federation of Yugoslavia until 1991, when a referendum to secede was passed with 96.5% support. For most of its existence, Yugoslavia was a one-party state dominated by the League of Communists. However, the local League of Communists of Macedonia added the suffix Party of Democratic Changes (becoming the SKM-PDP) and in 1991 renamed itself the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM). Macedonia became a parliamentary country with a ceremonial president. The two-party system saw the SDSM battle the VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity), a conservative nationalist party. Kiro Gligorov was the first President, having been in that role before independence. The independent Nikola Klusjev was replaced by the SDSM’s Branko Crvenkovski as Prime Minister in 1992. In 1994, general elections were held. An Alliance for Macedonia was formed, led by the SDSM. Their candidate, Kiro Gligorov, won the presidential election, after which the VMRO-DPMNE boycotted the parliamentary election’s second round, leading to an Alliance for Macedonia landslide. The main opposition became the Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP), a party representing the country’s large ethnic Albanian minority. A VMRO-DPMNE-led alliance won the 1998 election, allowing Ljubčo Georgievski to become PM, and in 1999, the party’s Boris Trajkovski won the presidential elections, despite the SDSM candidate Tito Petkovski taking the first round. In 2002, the SDSM-led Together for Macedonia won the election ahead of the VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition, and Crvenkovski returned. Trajkovski died in a plane crash in 2004, a year when elections would be held. Crvenkovski won the presidential election, defeating the VMRO-DPMNE’s Saško Kedev. Indepedent internal affairs minister Hari Kostov became Prime Minister, but soon resigned as he could not solve differences between ethnic Macedonians and Albanians in the government. Defence Minister Vlado Bučkovski, an SDSM member, then became PM. However, Together for Macedonia was defeated by the VMRO-DPMNE’s For a Better Macedonia in 2006, and Nikola Gruevski became PM. He held snap elections in 2008 because Greece vetoed a bid to join NATO: they objected to the country’s name, Macedonia, due to the fact they have a historic region called Macedonia as well. For a Better Macedonia won a majority ahead of the SDSM’s coalition Sun – Coalition for Europe. In 2009, the VMRO-DPMNE picked up another win as Gjorge Ivanov beat the SDSM’s Ljubomir Frčkoski to become President. After the VMRO-DPMNE launched a raid on private opposition TV stations and newspapers for tax offences, the SDSM walked out of parliament and demanded new elections, which they got in 2011. The VMRO-DPMNE’s coalition beat the SDSM’s, but did not get a majority this time. Combined elections were held in 2014. In the presidential race, Ivanov beat the SDSM’s Stevo Pendarovski. The VMRO-DPMNE also won the parliamentary race ahead of the SDSM. Gruevski saw SDSM leader Zoran Zaev arrested, to which he responded by claiming wiretapping. After protests, the Pržino Agreement was mediated by the EU, where Gruevski, accused of autocracy would go, and a caretaker unity government led by Emil Dimitriev would take the country to elections. These were held in 2016, with For a Better Macedonia, the VMRO-DPMNE coalition still the largest, but For Life in Macedonia of the SDSM forming a coalition with the Albanian parties. The Zaev government ended the naming dispute with Greece by renaming the country North Macedonia. In 2019, Pendarovski was elected President, beating the VMRO-DPMNE’s Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova. The VMRO-DPMNE want to reverse the name change. Zaev resigned and called early elections in 2020 because the European Council’s France blocked the EU accession protocol. Oliver Spasovski was the caretaker PM. In the election the SDSM alliance, We Can! More and Better won more seats than the VMRO-DPMNE’s Renewal for Macedonia. Zaev negotiated a coalition with Albanian parties, but resigned in 2022 after poor local election results, replaced by Dimitar Kovačevski. As part of the agreement, an Albanian Prime Minister would govern for 100 days before the election, so the incumbent is Talat Xhaferi. The presidential election saw Siljanovska-Davkova win 41.2% and Pendarovski 20.5% in the first round. The Albanian Bujar Osmani won 13.7%, while the third-party candidate Maksim Dimitrievski and Albanian Arben Tarvari both won 9.5% each. Two others won less than 5%. Though Pendarovski will likely get more of the votes of the eliminated candidates in the run-off, Siljanovska-Davkova is favourite.
Stevo Pendarovski (SDSM), President of North Macedonia since 2019 On the same date, North Macedonia will hold its parliamentary election. In 2020, We Can! won 46 of 120 seats, being a coalition of a huge number of parties, but led by the SDSM. The Renewal coalition won 44 seats, being another massive coalition led by the VMRO-DPMNE. The Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the biggest Albanian party, won fifteen seats, while a joint list of the Alliance for the Albanians and Alternativa (Alternative) was the next Albanian list on twelve. The Left, a pro-Russian party with socialist aesthetics, won two seats, while the last seat was won by the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA). The SDSM and DUI formed a coalition. The SDSM coalition this time is called For a European Future, and again contains a huge list of parties, while the same is true for the VMRO-DPMNE coalition, entitled Your Macedonia. The DUI, Alliance for the Albanians, and DPA have formed a European Front, while an Alliance for the Albanians splinter has sided with Alternativa in the VLEN Coalition. Your Macedonia is miles ahead, and if it wins a majority or finds coalition partners, Hristijan Mickoski can become Prime Minister. The VMRO-DPMNE often talk big on nationalism, but also express it mostly in statues and the like, and will probably accept Europeanisation, albeit with less eagerness.
Talat Xhaferi (DUI), Prime Minister of North Macedonia since 2024 On 10 May, Iran will hold the second round of its parliamentary election. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, power has mostly been vested not in the parliament, but in the Supreme Leader, who is technically accountable to the Guidance Council. A presidency also exists, meaning the parliament is a rather weak body. Ruhollah Khomeini was Supreme Leader from 1979 to his death in 1989, since then Ali Khamenei has been Supreme Leader. In practice, the Supreme Leader has control over the entire political process in Iran. Though Iran has had some ‘reformist’ forces over the years, including Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) and Hassan Rouhani (2013-2021), the reform movement has been suppressed since the end of the Rouhani presidency. Instead, the principilists, who are conservative hardliners were the only allowed force in this election, which saw its first round in March, but a few seats needed a re-election this time. Iran’s government is one of the principal enemies of the West, especially after the end of Rouhani. The regime is declared by them as not just malign on the global stage but repressive domestically, with protests breaking out after a woman died in custody of the religious morality police under suspicious circumstances. These regimes were huge and rocked the regime, but did not fell it, and reformist politicians including Khatami called for a boycott.
Ali Khamenei (Independent), Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989 On 11 May, the Malaysian state constituency of Kuala Kubu Baharu in Selangor will hold a by-election. The UK had colonial interests in Malaysia, and in 1874 managed to install a British Resident governor in Selangor, while the Sultan still officially governed. This joined the Federated Malay States, a British protectorate also including Perek, Negeri Sembilan, and Pahang, in 1895. Malaya was occupied by Japan in World War II between 1942 and 1945, when British rule was restored. In 1946, they joined with other British possessions to form the Union of Malaya. However, decolonial movements such as the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) still opposed this. In 1948, it was reorganised as the Federation of Malaya which restored the traditional rights of sultans. Elections were held for the first time in 1955. A coalition known as the Alliance Party was divided on ethnic lines: the UMNO represented Malays, the Malayan Chinese Association (MCA) represented Chinese, and the Malayan Indian Congress (MIC) represented Indians. They won every seat but one in the parliament, with the UMNO winning four seats in Selangor and the MCA three. This was basically a conservative alliance, but still one that wanted independence. Tunku Abdul Rahman became Chief Minister. In Selangor’s state house, the Alliance won every seat: eight for the UMNO, three for the MCA, and two for the MIC. Malaya became independent in 1957, Tunku then was styled Prime Minister. Elections were held again in 1959: though the Alliance Party still won, there was a healthy amount of opposition parties in the legislature. In Selangor, the Alliance Party won nine seats (five for the UMNO, three for the MCA, and one for the MIC), but five went to the left-wing Malaysian People’s Socialist Front (SF), three to the Labour Party of Malaya and two for the Parti Ra’ayat (People’s Party). In the state house, the Alliance Party won 23 seats (fourteen for the UMNO, eight for the MCA, and one for the MIC), while the SF won three (two for the Parti Ra’ayat and one for Labour), while two were won by independents. Abu Bakar Baginda became the state’s Menteri Besar or First Minister, while Tunku was still Prime Minister. In 1963, Malaya federated with the remaining British territories to become Malaysia. The Alliance Party won again in the 1964 election, with the opposition damaged. In Selangor, twelve seats went to the Alliance Party (six for the UMNO, five for the MCA, which was now Malaysian Chinese Association, and one for the MIC, which was now Malaysian Indian Congress), one for the SF (Labour), and one for the Singapore-based People’s Action Party (PAP). Singapore’s decision to contest seats outside of Singapore (and the UMNO contesting seats inside Singapore), leading to a clash in personalities between Tunku and the PAP’s Lee Kuan Yew was one of the reasons Singapore was expelled from the federation, the seat in Selangor was the only one they won. In the state house, the Alliance Party won 24 seats (thirteen for the UMNO, eight for the MCA, and three for the MIC), while the SF won four (three for Labour and one for the Parti Ra’ayat). Tunku remained PM, and Harun Idris became Menteri Besar. The Alliance won a majority in 1969: it was now a five-party alliance, adding two Sarawak-based parties. In Selangor, the Alliance won nine seats (six for the UMNO, two for the MCA, and one for the MIC), while the left-of-centre opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP) took three and the Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Malaysian People’s Movement Party), a more liberal opposition, won two. In Selangor the Alliance lost its majority, winning fourteen of 28 seats (twelve for the UMNO and one each for the MCA and MIC), the DAP took nine, Gerakan took four and one independent won a seat. However, Tunku continued as PM and Harun was able to continue as Menteri Besar by agreeing with the independent. The DAP and Gerakan were mostly Chinese-based. Chinese and Malays had ethnic tension as Chinese were seen as wealthier and more urbane, and some Malays called for Malay pre-eminence in Malaysian political role. The gains by the DAP and Gerakan led to racial clashes, after which Tunku’s power was curtailed as a state of emergency was called by the king. The country was actually governed by an emergency committee and Tunku, criticised for his handling, resigned in 1970. Minister of Defence and Minister of National and Rural Development Abdul Razak Hussein replaced him. Abdul Razak was already basically in charge as he directed the National Operations Council. The next elections were in 1974. The Alliance Party was replaced by the Barisan Nasional (BN, National Front) for this election as more parties were added, including the Gerakan, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), an Islamist group, and other parties mostly in Sarawak and Sabah (although one Sarawak-based party from last time also dissolved before the election). The BN won a big majority: in Selangor they took ten seats (five for the UMNO, four for the MCA, and one for the MIC), while the DAP took just one. In the state election, the BN took thirty seats (nineteen for the UMNO, six for the MCA, three for the MIC, one each for PAS and the Gerakan) while the DAP got just one and independents got two. This is also the election when the seat of Kuala Kubu Baru was introduced. The MCA’s Chan Keong Hon defeated a DAP candidate. Abdul Razak stayed on as PM and Harun became the new Menteri Besar. Abdul Razak died in 1976 and was replaced by Minister of Finance Hussein Onn. Harun was forced out in the same year when the UMNO expelled him for corruption. He was replaced by Hormat Rafaei. The next election was in 1978. PAS left BN as they had fallen out with the UMNO, and a small Sabah party left, while one new party joined each from Sarawak and Sabah. The BN won a big majority anyway, in Selangor taking ten seats (six for the UMNO, three for the MCA, and one for the MIC). In the state election, they took 29 seats (twenty for the UMNO, five for the MCA, three for the MIC and one for the Gerakan), with three for the DAP and one for an independent. In Kuala Kubu Baru, the BN did not have a candidate and so the DAP’s Pan Su Peng won easily against only independent opposition. Hussein stayed as PM and Hormat as Menteri Besar. In 1981, Hussein retired due to serious health issues, and Deputy PM Mahathir Mohammad replaced him. Elections were held again in 1982. This time, the BN had the same ten parties, and it won easily. In Selangor it took all eleven seats (six for the UMNO, four for the MCA, and one for the MIC), and in the state election they took 31 seats (twenty for the UMNO, seven for the MCA, three for the MIC, and one for the Gerakan), the DAP won one, as did an independent. In Kuala Kubu Baru, the MCA won the seat back with Choo Yoong Fatt winning, an independent second and Pan Su Peng third. Mahathir stayed on as PM while Ahmad Razali Mohamad Ali became Menteri Besar. At the 1986 election, one Sabah-based party disappeared from the BN and one other minority party disappeared. Three parties were added, being Islamist (a PAS splinter), Sarawak-based, and Sabah-based. The BN won another majority. In Selangor, the BN won twelve seats (seven for the UMNO, three for the MCA, two for the MIC) while the DAP won two. In the state election, the BN won another majority with 37 seats (26 for the UMNO, eight for the MCA, three for the MIC) with the DAP taking five. The now renamed Kuala Kubu Baharu constituency saw Wong Ah Taih hold the seat for the MCA despite a closer challenge from the DAP. Mahathir remained PM and Muhammad Muhammad Taib became Menteri Besar. The next election was in 1990. A Sabah-based and an Islamist party was out while one minority party re-appeared for the BN, who won another majority. In Selangor, the BN won eleven seats (seven for the UMNO and two each for the MCA and MIC) while the DAP won three. In the state house, the BN won 35 seats (26 for the UMNO, six for the MCA, and three for the MIC) while the DAP won six. The remaining seat went to the Semangat 46 (Spirit of 46), a Malay nationalist and right-wing party. In Kuala Kubu Baharu, Wong increased the majority for the MCA as the DAP vote declined. Both Mahathir and Muhammad continued. Elections were held again in 1995. The BN had ballooned in size as a Sabah party was out but five were added, plus an independent. They won another majority. They took all seventeen seats in Selangor (eight for the DAP, six for the MCA, three for the MIC), while in the state house they won 45 seats (thirty for the UMNO, eleven for the MCA, three for the MIC, one for the Gerakan) and the DAP got just three. In Kuala Kubu Baharu, the MCA candidate Ch’ng Toh Eng was elected unopposed. Both Mahathir and Muhammad continued. In 1997, Muhammad was forced out due to making false currency declarations (he was later found innocent as he claimed he could not understand forms in English), the national Minister of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Abu Hassan Omar was moved in to replace him. The next set of elections were in 1999. One minority-based party and one Sabah-based party disappeared from the BN. Most of the opposition including the PAS and DAP formed a coalition called the Barisan Alternatif (BA, Alternative Front), but the BN won a majority. In Selangor, the BN won all seventeen seats (eight for the UMNO, six for the MCA, three for the MIC), while in the state election the BN took 42 seats (26 for the UMNO, eleven for the MCA, three for the MIC, two for the Gerakan). The PAS won four seats, with the DAP on one and the National Justice Party (PKN), a smaller opposition party. In Kuala Kubu Baharu, Ch’ng Toh Eng was re-elected, easily beating DAP opposition. Mahathir and Abu Hassan kept on. After a sex scandal which he denied, Abu Hassan stepped down in 2000, stating that it had taken a toll on him and his family. Khir Toyo replaced him. Mahathir retired in 2003. Deputy PM Abdullah Ahmad Badawi replaced him. The next election was in 2004. In the BN, one Sarawak party and an independent was gone, but a Sarawak party, a Sabah party, and a minority party was added. The DAP also left the BA, and the BN won a majority. In Selangor they won all 22 seats (ten for the UMNO, seven for the MCA, four for the MIC and one for the Gerakan). In the state house, the BN took 54 seats (35 for the UMNO, twelve for the MCA, four for the Gerakan and three for the MIC), while the DAP won the remaining two. In Kuala Kubu Baharu, Ch’ng Toh Eng increased the margin in this safe seat. Abdullah and Khir kept on. The next election was in 2008. A Sarawak party was added to the BN. The PKN merged with the old Parti Ra’ayat to become the People’s Justice Party (PKR), which joined PAS and the DAP in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR, People’s Alliance). The BN still won, although it sustained significant losses to the PR, instead of being hegemonic it was now about a two to one split. Notably, in Selangor, a wealthy state without a regional identity that had remained loyal to the BN, the PR made huge gains, taking seventeen seats (nine for the PKR and four each for the PAS and DAP) while the BN kept just five (four for the UMNO and one for the MCA). The BN also lost the state house for the first time, as the PR took 36 seats (fifteen for the PKR, thirteen for the DAP and eight for the PAS) while the BN won twenty (eighteen for the UMNO and two for the MCA). In Kuala Kubu Buharu, the MCA’s Wong Koon Mun survived a 27.9% swing to the DAP to narrowly hold on. Abdullah remained as PM, but the PR formed a government under the PKR’s Khalid Ibrahim. After this election, Abdullah was under huge pressure from the UMNO and resigned in 2009. Minister of Finance Najib Razak replaced him. The next election was pencilled in for 2013. Only a Sabah party left the BN, it was otherwise unchanged, while the PR also was unchanged. The PR actually won more votes in this election, but the BN won a majority. In Selangor, the PR again won seventeen seats (nine for the PKR, four each for the PAS and DAP) while the BN took five (four for the UMNO, one for the MIC). In the state election, the PR won an increased majority with 44 seats (fifteen each for the PAS and DAP and fourteen for the PKR), while the BN won just twelve (all for the UMNO). It is said that Selangor, as an urban state, wanted a more inclusive policy instead of the racialised politics of the BN and UMNO. In Kuala Kubu Baharu, the DAP gained the seat off the MCA, with Lee Kee Hiong being the first person to defeat an MCA candidate in the constituency. Najib remained as PM and Khalid as Menteri Besar. In 2014, a political crisis began in Selangor known as the Kajang Move. The intention from the PKR was to remove Khalid in favour of national opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim by running in a by-election, but Anwar was blocked due to a sodomy conviction. Instead, his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail was nominated and elected. Still, Khalid was sacked from the PKR due to court cases against him, and thus removed as Menteri Besar. The Sultan was displeased by the whole ordeal and refused to swear in Wan Azizah. Instead, the PKR’s Azmin Ali was named Menteri Besar. The next elections were held in 2018. The PR had broken up: the DAP and PKR had formed the Pakatan Harapan (PH, Alliance of Hope) with two smaller parties while PAS dominated a new alliance called the Gagasan Sejahtera (GS, Ideas of Prosperity). The election was won by the PH, with the BN defeated for the first time even and the GS a distant third. In Selangor, the PH won twenty seats (eleven for the PKR, five for the centre-left National Trust Party (AMANAH), three for the DAP and one for the right-wing Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu)), while the BN won just two (both for the UMNO). In the state election, the PH took 51 seats (21 for the PKR, sixteen for the DAP, eight for AMANAH and six for Bersatu), while the BN took four (all for the UMNO) and the GS took one (for PAS). In Kuala Kubu Baharu, Lee Kee Hiong turned the seat safe as the BN vote collapsed. Mahathir had returned to politics in 2015 but quit the UMNO, accusing Najib of corruption and forming Bersatu. He became PM again after the election. The PKR’s Amirudin Shari, previously Chairman for Youth Generation Development, Sports, Entrepreneur Development, Rural Development, and Tradition Villages became Menteri Besar. Mahathir was to hand power to Anwar, who he had secured a royal pardon for, but delayed this. As the crisis continued, Bersatu left the PH coalition and Azmin took several PKR figures to Bersatu, thus depriving the PH of a majority. Bersatu then formed a coalition with the BN, also creating a third alliance called the Perikatan Nasional (PN, National Alliance). Muhyiddin Yassin of Bersatu became PM. However, in 2021 the UMNO withdrew support for Muhyiddin due to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ismail Sabri Yaakob of the UMNO was made PM with PAS and Bersatu support. All three coalitions (PH, PN, BN) had led between 2018 and 2022, but it was decided the only way to end instability was a snap election. The PH had lost Bersatu but gained two smaller parties (a youth party and a Sabah party), the PN consisted of Bersatu, the PAS, and the Gerakan, and the BN was made smaller by losing four Sarawak parties, who formed their own alliance, one of the small Sabah parties, which joined PH, the Gerakan (to the PN) and two other small Sabah and multiracial parties. They did gain four parties, three of which were Indian in ethnicity. In the election, the PH was the largest alliance, with the PN second, making huge gains in the north known as the Green Wave and the BN hammered to third. No alliance won a majority. In Selangor the PH won sixteen seats (seven for the PKR, five for AMANAH, and four for the DAP) while the PN took six (three each for PAS and Bersatu). The PH formed a coalition with the BN and the Sarawak alliance, making Anwar Ibrahim the current Prime Minister. The Selangor election was not held until 2023, the time for a regular election. The PH and BN ran a joint alliance, to go with the national coalition, and won 34 seats (fifteen for the DAP, twelve for the PKR, five for AMANAH, and two for the UMNO) while the PN won 22 (twelve for Bersatu and ten for the PAS). Amirudin continues as the incumbent Menteri Besar. Despite a PN challenge, Lee Kee Hiong retained the seat. However, she died in 2024, necessitating a by-election. The PH candidate this time is Pang Sock Tao of the DAP, a known broadcaster and DAP activist, whose main opponent will be Khairul Azhari Saut of the PN (Bersatu), a former councillor. Two other candidates are running: one independent, and one from the rump Parti Rakyat Malaysia (PRM, Malaysian People’s Party), which is the successor to the Parti Ra’ayat, the majority of which merged to form the PKR. Pang is considered the favourite in the election, but the PN will hope for Green Wave momentum to help Khairul Azhari.
Lee Kee Hiong (DAP), MLA for Kuala Kubu Buharu from 2013 to 2024 On 12 May, Lithuania will hold a presidential election. The Grand Dutchy of Lithuania dates back to the thirteenth cenutry and lasted until 1795. It went into personal union with Poland in 1385 in the Union of Krewo, and eventually became the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth in the Union of Lublin of 1569, although Lithuania retained distinctiveness. As Polish power waned in the eighteenth century, in 1795 the Commonwealth was divided between Austria, Prussia, and Russia, with most of Lithuania becoming Russian. Though a Russification was attempted, the late ninteenth century saw a National Revival in Lithuania. Germany occupied Lithuania during World War I, but after Germany’s defeat, Lithuania declared independence, but in 1920 Poland invaded, creating the puppet Republic of Central Lithuania, which was annexed in 1922, greatly reducing Lithuanian territory, although Lithuania did annex a region from Germany in 19923. The first Lithuanian elections as an independent state were for Constituent Assembly elections in 1920. Parties included the Lithuanian Christian Democratic Party (LKDP), the Peasant Union (VS), the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP). In 1922, the first normal parliament was elected, but the seats were so spread out no stable government could be formed so another election was held in 1923. The largest party was the Lithuanian Popular Peasants’ Union (LVLS), a left-wing farmers party, but the right-wing coalition led by the LKDP stayed on. However, in 1926 the LVLS formed a left-wing coalition with the LSDP. This government also relied on the large amount of ethnic minority (including Polish) representatives. They restored liberal freedoms (ending martial law) and signed a treaty with the Soviet Union. While the Polish government suppressed Lithuanian culture in regions Lithuania still claimed, the government in Lithuania was forced by parliamentary arithmetic to support the Polish minority. All of this was too much for the military, and a coup occurred in 1926. Though the mililtary rule ended in 1927, they handed power to an autocracy led by the right-wing Lithuanian Nationalist Union (LTS), who had only won three seats in the election. Elections were not held again until 1936, by which time only the LTS were allowed to run. In 1939, Lithuania was pressured into giving Germany the territory they claimed in 1923 back. Though they tried to gain neutrality, they were pressured again into assisting the Soviet Union into their war against Poland, getting territory back in exchange. By 1940, the Soviet Union had occupied Lithuania, and a rigged election was won by the Lithuanian Communist Party (LKP). The new government proclaimed a Lithuanian Socialist Soviet Republic, which became part of the Soviet Union. Though Germany occupied it from 1941 to 1944, Soviet control was re-established and survived until after the war. Both the Soviet Union and Lithuania were one-party communist states, although Lithuanians fought an unsuccessful guerilla war. In the 1980s, Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the Soviet Union and massively reduced the oppressive atmosphere, allowing an environment in which Lithuanians could express their desire for independence. The Communist Party of Lithuania broke away from the Soviet Communist Party, and held democratic elections in 1990, in which they won the most seats. The new parliament restored the old state that was occupied, then immediately modified the constitution. This was a way to “restore” independence instead of “declare” it: Lithuania claimed that it was illegally occupied rather than a part of the Soviet Union in this time. After a failed Soviet coup in 1991, a referendum was held, with 93.2% in favour of the already-restored independence. In 1992, 73.0% voted to restore the presidency, and 92.6% voted to remove Russian troops. The new constitution was passed by 72.8%, and parliamentary elections were held. The LKP, which became the Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania (LDDP), a centre-left party, won a majority. Others included the Sąjūdis (Movement), the first opposition movement in Soviet Lithuania, an LKDP-led coaltion, and the LSDP. Bronislovas Lubys, an independent endorsed by the LDDP became Prime Minister, and in 1993, the LDDP’s Algirdas Brazauskas was elected President. Lithuania has a semi-presidential system, similar to France, but unlike most European countries: the President has some important powers, including in foreign policy. The next election was in 1996, by which time there had been three LDDP-endorsed Prime Ministers. By now, the Sąjūdis had split up, but the right-wing had formed the Homeland Union (TS), a conservative centre-right party, and won the election, with the LKDP second and the LDDP losing over 80% of their seats. Gediminas Vagnorious became PM. The 1997-8 presidential election was very close, with two independents in a runoff. Valdas Adamkus beat Artūras Paulauskas by just fifteen thousand votes. The Homeland Union candidate came third. The Vagnorious cabinet fell apart and two more TS PMs took office before the 2000 election. Brazauskas then ran for parliament with a Social-Democratic Coalition (SDK) including the LDDP and LSDP, the top coalition, while Paulauskas formed the New Union (Social Liberals) (NS). The SDK came first, although the centrist Liberal Union of Lithuania (LLS) was the top individual party, as the TS was destroyed. The LLS’ Rolandas Paskas became PM briefly, but then a coalition was found around Brazauskas between the LSDP and NS. After this, Paskas quit the LLS to form the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which was more to the right. In the 2002-3 presidential race, Adamkus was defeated by Paskas in a runoff. However, Paskas was impeached and removed in 2004 for links to the Russian mafia, and new elections were held. This time, Adamkus won against a candidate from a small party in a close run-off, the Peasants and New Democratic Party Union. The new Labour Party formed by a millionaire entrepreneur won the most votes in the 2004 parliamentary election, as the LSDP-NS alliance fell and the TS rebounded. However, the LSDP managed to form a coalition to stay in power, even after Brazauskas retired in 2006. The next election was in 2008, where the TS became the largest party again, with the LSDP second. A TS-led coalition under Andrius Kubilius was installed. In 2009, the independent European Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaitė won the presidential race in a landslide. Kubilius finished his term and the 2012 election saw the LSDP, TS, and Labour Party as the main forces. The LSDP’s Algirdas Butkevičius became PM. In 2014, Grybauskaitė was forced into a run-off by the LSDP candidate, but was still re-elected easily. In 2016, the Peasants and New Democratic Party Union, now renamed the Lithuanian Farmers and Green Union (LVŽS) stormed into first place. The Homeland Union was second and the LSDP fell to third, while Labour was annihilated. The LVŽS formed government under independent Saulius Skvernelis. In 2019, two independents reached a run-off for president: Gitanas Nausėda won easily, beating a TS-endorsed candidate. The latest parliamentary election was in 2020. The TS came first ahead of the LVŽS, with a total of eight other parties and four independents also elected. A TS-led government led by Ingrida Šimonytė has governed, with the next election in October. In this presidential race, Nausėda has a tough task with Šimonytė among those running against him. The other main candidate is Ignas Vėgėlė, an independent who the LVŽS has withdrawn their candidate for. Polls show Nausėda ahead, with Šimonytė and Vėgėlė close for the run-off. Therefore, Nausėda is still favourite to be re-elected. Though Nausėda and Šimonytė are both broadly pro-Western centre-right figures, they have clashed on some elements of foreign policy, making this race a grudge match.
Gitanas Nausėda (Independent), President of Lithuania since 2019 On the same date, Lithuania will hold a constitutional referendum. This is to allow dual citizenship, which is currently banned, meaning the large diaspora have to give up their citizenship if they want to take another country’s citizenship. Another referendum had a majority in favour in 2019, but failed due to low turnout: Lithuania’s political class hope that combining the vote with a presidential election, as they did that time will increase turnout. Nearly every political party, including the TS, LVŽS, and LSDP support the bill. Referendums are not rare in Lithuania, with votes in 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2019 all failing. 2003 was the last time a referendum passed, when the prize was EU membership: 91.1% voted in favour that time. In the 2019 vote, 73.9% voted in favour, but with turnout at 53.2%, this meant a total of 38% of all voted in favour and it wasn’t passed. The percentage of “Yes” voters and turnout will need to increase if the law is changed again.
Ingrida Šimonytė (Homeland Union), Prime Minister of Lithuania since 2020 On the same date, the Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia will hold regional elections. As most of modern-day Iberia was taken over by Muslims as a province known as Al-Andalus, some counties were taken by the Frankish Empire. The Franks conquered Barceolna from the Muslims in 801, and the Frankish emperor would nominate a Count of Barcelona as a vassal to rule over these counties. Under Count Wilfred the Hairy, this countship became hereditary. By 988, they had de-satellised themselves, and Count Borrell II refused to recognise the Frankish king as his king. In 1137, the County of Barcelona entered dynastic union with the Kingdom of Aragon, making Catalonia a principality of Aragon. Though Catalonia was among one of the wealthiest parts of Aragon, it retained its own political system such as its own parliament and constitution. In 1469, Aragon and Castile were united by marriage and soon by person. As time went on, the Spanish were less tolerant of Catalonia’s autonomy, leading to tension and sometimes rebellion: during the Franco-Spanish War, a Catalan Republic was even briefly proclaimed as a French proxy. Spain would try to assimilate various minorities, including Catalans, who resisted, but the region always remained part of Spain apart from a brief French occupation during the Napoleonic Wars. Catalonia was an important hub of both economic and political activity in Spain and Europe in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. Spain was also having its own political turmoil, with periods of democracy, dictatorship, and republic. In the Second (and final) Republic, Catalonia held its first unified regional elections. The Catalan Left coalition, led by the pro-independence Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), won this 1932 race, and Francesc Macià became President of the Government. Catalonia was on the Republican side in the Spanish Civil War, but the right-wing Nationalist side was victorious, leading to the right-wing centralist dictatorship of Francisco Franco in which Catalan culture and political leftism or even liberalism was suppressed. As the dictatorship went on, the situation improved economically as Spain boomed coming out of the war. Franco’s dictatorship would die with him, and a democratic Spain would replace it: not a federal country, but one where autonomous regions would be respected. The first Spanish election was in 1977, with the top parties being the Union of the Democratic Centre (UCD) around transitional Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the main left-wing force. Even though the UCD won nationally, the Socialists of Catalonia, an alliance between the Catalan Federation of the PSOE and a local socialist party, took fifteen seats. The Democratic Pact for Catalonia (PDC), a Catalan nationalist bloc, took eleven, while the UCD won nine. Eight seats went to the Unified Socialist Party of Catalonia (PUSC), a communist party that was part of the nationally important Communist Party of Spain (PCE). Two seats went to the Union of the Centre and Democracy in Catalonia (UDCC), a centre-right bloc, while one seat each went to the Left of Catalonia–Democratic Electoral Front, which the historic ERC was affiliated to, and an right-wing alliance known as Catalan Coexistence (CC) led by the People’s Alliance (AP), a post-Francoist party. Tthe two parties affiliated in the Socialists of Catalonia coalition and one that was in the PDC merged to form the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC), part of the PSOE. In the 1979 election, they won seventeen seats, while Centrists of Catalonia, an alliance including the UCD, won twelve. The PSUC and Convergence in Union (CiU) which was formed by members of the PDC and UDCC won eight each. One more each went to an alliance of the ERC and the left-wing nationalist National Front of Catalonia (FNC), and the Democratic Coalition (AD) which included the AP. In 1980, Catalonia’s elections were restored. CiU won 43 seats, the PSC 33, the PUSC 25, the Centrists eighteen, the ERC fourteen and the left-wing Socialist Party of Andalusia–Andalusian Party (PSA-PA), which was Andalusian nationalist, won two. Jordi Pujol of CiU managed to convince the Centrists and ERC to vote in his favour. In 1982, the next Spanish election was held: the PSC won 25 seats, CiU twelve, an AP-led alliance called the People’s Coalition eight, the PUSC and PRC one. The UCD were annihilated all over Spain and the Centrists lost all seats in Catalonia as the PSC would govern Spain and the AP became the main opposition. In 1984, CiU won a majority in Catalonia, with 72 seats, while the PSC won 41, the People’s Coalition eleven, the PUSC falling to six and ERC five. The Centrists and PSA-AP did not run in this election. Pujol continued. Spain’s next election was in 1986: the PSC were still the top party on 21, with the CiU on eighteen, the AP on six, the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), formed to replace the UCD by Suárez and the PUSC-led Union of the Catalan Left (UEC) on one each. The ERC lost their seat as the PSOE continued to govern. Catalonia’s next election was in 1988. CiU won another majority with 69, with the PSC on 42, the Initiative for Catalonia (IC), an alliance led by PUSC on nine, the AP and ERC on six each, and the CDS on three. Pujol won another term. In 1989, a Spanish election was held, where the PSC won twenty seats in Catalonia, and CiU eighteen. The AP merged and moderated its image to become the centre-right People’s Party (PP), who took four seats. The IC won three and CDS one. The PSOE controlled Spain again. The next Catalan election was in 1992. CiU won a majority with seventy seats, with the PSC on forty, the ERC eleven, and the IC and PP seven each. The CDS lost all their seats. Pujol continued. In 1993, the PSC won eighteen seats in Catalonia in Spain’s election, with the CiU seventeen, the PP eight, the IC three and ERC one. The CDS lost their seat. CiU lost their majority in Catalonia in 1995 with sixty seats. The PSC won 34, the PP seventeen, the ERC thirteen and an alliance between IC and The Greens (EV) eleven. The PSC, PP and ERC abstained to allow Pujol to continue. In 1996, Spain had new elections, with the PSC winning sixteen seats in Catalonia, CiU thirteen, the PP eight, the IC-EV alliance two, and the ERC one. This election saw the PP finally take power. Catalonia held elections in 1999. CiU took a hit, falling to 56, while the PSC formed an alliance with Citizens for Change (CpC), which won a total of 52 seats. This also included the IC-EV alliance in some constituencies, which had merged into a party called Initiative for Catalonia Gereens (ICV). The PP and ERC took twelve each, and the ICV three in places they won alone. The PP voted to keep Pujols in power. In the 2000 Spanish election, the PSC took seventeen Catalan seats, CiU fifteen, the PP twelve, and the ERC and ICV one each. In 2003, the CiU won 46 Catalan seats, while the PSC-CpC alliance took 42. The ERC skyrocketed to 23, while the PP won fifteen and an alliance between ICV and the Alternative Left (EA) took nine. Pujol was finally replaced by the PSC’s Pasqual Maragall, beacked up by the ERC and ICV-EA. The PSC also made gains in the Spanish election in 2004 with 21 seats, as CiU took ten, the ERC eight, the PP six and an alliance between the ICV and the renamed United and Alternative Left (EUiA) taking two. The PSOE took back power in Spain. The ERC fell out with Maragall in 2006 and a new election was held. A referendum on a Statue of Autonomy given to Catalonia by Spain was passed, but the ERC opposed the form the Statute took. CiU won 48 seats, the PSC 37, the ERC 21, the PP fourteen, the ICV-EUiA alliance twelve, while a new pro-Spanish centrist party, the Citizens (Cs) took three. With Maragall gone, the ERC and ICV-EUiA restored the alliance with José Montilla at the helm. The next Spanish election was in 2008. The PSC won 25 seats in Catalonia, with ten won by the CiU, the PP eight, the ERC three and ICV-EUiA one. The PSOE also held on to power. Catalonia’s next election was in 2010. The CiU stormed back into power with 62 seats, with the PSC down to 28, PP eighteen, ICV-EUiA and ERC ten each. Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI), a pro-independence party took four seats, while the Cs won three. The PSC abstained so CiU’s Artur Mas could take control. The next Spanish election was in 2011. The CiU won sixteen seats, the PSC fourteen, the PP eleven, and the ICV-EUiA alliance (part of the nationwide Plural Left alliance) took three, as did an alliance between the ERC and new pro-independence Regrupament (Rally) and Catalonia Yes (CatSí). Mariano Rajoy of the PP became the new Prime Minister. In 2012, a huge pro-independence demonstration led to Mas calling a snap election. The CiU won fifty seats, with the ERC-CatSí alliance 21, the PSC twenty, the PP nineteen, the ICV-EUiA alliance thirteen, the Cs nine, and a new left-wing pro-independence alliance called Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) three. The SI lost their seats. ERC members backed up Mas and allowed him to come on. Spain’s political system would be rocked in 2015. That year, Catalonia held an election. The top alliance was formed of former CiU parties after the alliance broke up, the ERC, and others: Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes, JxSí), who took 62 seats. The Cs became the main opposition on 25, with the PSC on sixteen. A new alliance called Catalunya Sí que es Pot (Catalonia Yes We Can) was formed as an alliance containing the left-wing Podemos (We Can), the ICV, and EUiA, which took eleven seats, as did the PP. The CUP also took ten seats. CUP votes allowed JxSi’s Carles Puigdemont to become President. In Spain’s election that year, the two-party system would be challenged by the rise of new parties: Podemos in third and the Cs in fourth. In Catalonia, Podemos would form an alliance with the ICV and EUiA called En Comú Podem (In Common We Can, ECP), and this won the most seats in the region with twelve. The ERC-CatSí alliance would also improve to nine, while the PSC and Democracy and Freedom (DiL) won eight each. DiL replaced CiU. The Cs and PP won five each. No government could be formed so a new election was held in 2016, but little changed. ECP won twelve seats, the ERC-CatSí alliance nine, the Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), which was the main party in the CiU and DiL alliances, took eight while the PSC took seven. The PP won six and the Cs five. Finally, Cs members and regionalists in Navarre, the Canary Islands, and the Asturias voted in Rajoy’s favour while PSOE members abstained to allow him to continue. The Catalan government in 2017 passed a law for an independence referendum, which was considered illegal by Spain’s constitutional court. The referendum was held anyway, and “succeeded” but was boycotted by anti-secessionists. As it was illegal, Spain sent police to break up the vote, leading to violent images out of Catalonia. Puigedmont then declared independence but “suspended” it, and the parliament then declared independence. Puigdemont became a fugitive. Rajoy then removed the Catalan government and called new elections in Catalonia in 2017. The Cs became the top party on 36 seats, with Together for Catalonia (JxCat), an alliance containing the CDC, 34. The ERC-CatSí alliance won 32, with the PSC on seventeen. Catalunya en Comú–Podem (Catalonia In Common – We Can), a coalition including Podemos, won eight, with the CUP and PP on four. Quim Torra of JxCat became President with ERC votes and CUP abstentions. Meanwhile, politicial machinations were moving in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez, the PSOE leader, placed a vote of no confidence (and investiture in himself) in Rajoy after a PP corruption case. With the votes of Podemos (and allies), the ERC, CDC, and other regionalists and nationalists in the Basque Country, Valencia, and the Canary Islands, Sánchez removed Rajoy and became Prime Minister. In the April 2019 election, the PSOE won the most seats, with the PP losing half their seats. The Cs made gains, with Podemos and allies fourth and the new radical right-wing Vox (Voice) fifth. In Catalonia, an alliance between the ERC and Sovereignists won fifteen seats, the PSC twelve, En Comú Podem and JxCat seven each, the Cs five, and the PP and Vox one each. Again no government could be formed, with a new election in November. The main consequences here were a slight resurgence for the PP, gains for Vox, and the collapse of the Cs. The PSOE were still the largest party. The ERC-Sovereignist alliance won thirteen seats in Catalonia, the PSC twelve, JxCat eight, En Comú Podem seven, and the PP, CUP, Vox, and Cs two each. Podemos and allies, and regionalists and nationalists in the Basque Country, Valencia, Galicia, the Canary Islands, and Teruel, as well as a small progressive party based mostly in Madrid voted in Sánchez’s favour, while the ERC and another Basque nationalist party abstained, keeping Sánchez in power by a very thin margin. Torra was then disqualified for using government buildings in a partisan manner during the April 2019 election. A new Catalan election was held in 2021. The PSC won 33 seats, with the ERC also on 33. A new Together for Catalonia with a different composition (shortened to Junts) won 32, Vox eleven, an alliance between the CUP and Guanyem Catalunya (Let’s Win Catalonia) took nine, En Comú Podem eight, the Cs six and the PP three. The ERC’s Pere Aragonès became President with JxCat and CUP/Guanyem votes, although in 2022, JxCat pulled out of the coalition. Finally, a Spanish election was held in 2023. The PP became the largest party, while Vox lost ground. In Catalonia the PSC won nineteen seats, while an alliance between the left-wing Sumar (Unite), a national alliance including Podemos, and En Comú Podem won seven, as did the ERC and Junts. The PP won six seats and Vox won two. Sánchez managed to get votes from Sumar, the ERC, Junts, and other regional parties in the Basque Country, Galicia, and Canary Islands. There are some noteworthy stories before this election too. The PSOE has battled for amnesty laws regarding the 2017 referendum in exchange for votes from the ERC and Junts. Before the election, a right-wing group accused Sánchez’s wife of corruption, leading to him “taking a few days off” to decide his future. After a rally from PSOE supporters, Sánchez announced that he would not resign, and this led to a bounce in polls for the PSOE, and also the PSC in Catalonia, who lead polls. Also, the left has split, with Podemos having left the alliance with Sumar. It seems that Podemos have basically been cannibalised and are behind in polls, and not even running this election, with Sumar leading their own alliance. Right now, it seems like a good election for unionism is in order, with the PSC and PP looking for gains and the ERC declining. Even in their heartland, the Cs are going to lose everything, completing their decline. One new party looking to emerge is the far-right Catalan nationalist Catalan Alliance, who will look to gain a couple of seats. A coalition after the election could be tricky, with the ERC, Junts, and CUP not guaranteed a combined majority.
Pere Aragonès (ERC), Acting President of the Government of Catalonia from 2020 to 2021, President since 2021 On 13 May, India will hold the fourth phase of its general election. This phase is for Andhara Pradesh, Telangana, and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. The main parties’ manifestos focus on different groups: the BJP have used what they call the GYAN formula, standing for poor, women, youth and farmers, while the INC have also focused on youth, women, farmers, and labourers. Turnout has been down in most regions in the early phases. Though the BJP have a star campaigner in Modi, who relishes occasions like this, the INDIA alliance has not nominated a candidate for Prime Minister, an admission of defeat in a sense in its own right. The leader of the alliance is the upper house Leader of the Opposition Mallikarjun Kharge, who lost his own seat in Gulbarga in 2019 and is not even running this time. The BJP has every advantage in the book, and will probably win once more.
Droupadi Murmu (BJP), President of India since 2022 On the same date, the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh will hold an election to its Legistlative Assembly. When India was part of the British Empire, the Presidency of Fort St. George was a division, until it was renamed the Madras Presidency in 1937. After independence, in 1950 it became Madras state in India’s new federal constitution. The INC was the biggest party in that state’s 1952 election, but there were a number of opposition and other parties, and though Congress did not hold a majority, they formed government. A leader of the Telugu people (also known as Andhras), Potti Sreeramulu, went on a fast asking for the Telugu areas to become their own state. Nehru promised that this would happen, but when the government did not actually start creating one the fast resumed. He died before it was granted, but the riots after his death led to Andhra State being created out of these parts of Madras State. The only election in Andhra was in 1955, with the INC winning a majority. In 1956, some parts of Hyderabad State, which was being dissolved, merged with Andhra to create Andhra Pradesh (some other small areas were gained from Mysore State, which was one of the two other states that absorbed Hyderabad State along with Bombay State). The first election in the state was held in 1957, but only for the former-Hyderabad areas. The seats the INC won gave them a majority, and INC activist Neelam Sanjiva Reddy (former Deputy Chief Minister of Andhra State) became Chief Minister, until 1960 when he resigned after being elected INC President. He was replaced by President of the local INC Damodaram Sanjeevaiah. The INC won a majority in the first unified state elections of 1962, with the far-left Communist Party of India (CPI) as the main opposition. Reddy returned as CM, but resigned in 1964 over a controversy regarding bus routes. Kasu Brahmananda Reddy replaced him. In 1967, the INC won another majority, the CPI lost four-fifths of their seats. Kasu Brahmananda Reddy was replaced in 1971 by P.V. Narasimha Rao, a future PM after the INC split. Rao was from the pro-Indira Gandhi INC (R) party. The INC (R) was the only party that came out of the split that had any success in Andhra Pradesh, and won a landslide in 1972. However, a movement known as Jai Andhra would break out that would hurt his premiership. Since the creation of Andhra Pradesh, the former parts of Hyderabad had protections that disenfranchised many Andhras. Certain government posts were limited to those people from Hyderabad that had lived there for fifteen years, excluding people from other parts of the state. The ministers from the Andhra region resigned and Rao therefore had lost control, and resigned too. Under President’s rule, a “six-point formula” was devised to end the conflict. Rao’s Industries Minister Jalagam Vengala Rao became CM. The INC (R) became the INC (I), which won the 1978 election, with the JP as the main opposition. Former Governor of Uttar Pradesh Marri Chenna Reddy became CM until 1980. He could not keep the INC (I) together, so he was replaced by T. Anjaiah (Tanguturi Anjaiah), a national Labour minister. This lasted until a 1982 incident, where Congress supremo Rajiv Gandhi visited. Anjaiah devised an elaborate ceremony, the pomp of which annoyed Gandhi, and he convinced Indira Gandhi, his mother, to sack Anjaiah. His minister, Bhavanam Venkatarami Reddy briefly replaced him, before former local Congress President Kotla Vijaya Bhaskara Reddy replaced him. In 1983, the INC (I) was defeated by the new Telugu Desam Party (TDP, Party of the Telugu Land), which focuses on Telugus. Congress dropped to become the official opposition, and the JP won just one seat. The new CM was N. T. Rama Rao (Nandamuri Taraka Rama Rao), a famous film actor who blindsided Congresss with a populist campaign. He was removed in 1984 while undergoing heart surgery in the US, with support of the INC governor: N. Bhaskara Rao (Nadendla Bhaskara Rao), the Finance Minister became CM. However, when Rama Rao returned, massive protests removed Bhaskara Rao and Rama Rao returned. New elections were held in 1985, and the TDP won another landslide with the INC (I) in opposition. However, in the 1989 election, the INC (I) managed to emerge victorious with the TDP a sizable opposition. Marri Chenna Reddy returned as CM, but stepped down in 1990. Agriculture, Forests, and Higher Education Minister N. Jannardhana Reddy (Nedurumalli Jannardhana Reddy) replcaed him. He lasted until 1992, when Bhaskara Reddy returned. In 1994, the TDP, who led a three-party alliance also including the CPI, won the election in a landslide, with the INC (I) nearly decimated. Rama Rao returned as CM. However, those unhappy with the interference of his wife, Lakshmi Parvathi’s interference in politics (she was thirty years his junior) revolted and removed Rama Rao. N. Chandrababu Naidu (Nara Chandrababu Naidu) replaced him. In 1999, the TDP entered the NDA alliance with the BJP, winning easily, although the INC (who had now dropped the (I) suffix) did make a resurgence. In 2004, the UPA, which also included the CPI and others, defeated the TDP-BJP NDA in a landslide. Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy (Yeduguri Sandinti Rajasekhara Reddy) became CM. The next election was in 2009. The TDP joined other parties including the CPI in the Maha Kutami (Grand Alliance), but the INC still held on for a majority in a close race. However, Rajasekhara Reddy died in a plane crash later that year. Konijeti Rosaiah replaced him, having previously been Finance, Planning, Small Savings, Lotteries, and Legislative Affairs Minister. Citing health reasons, he resigned in 2010. Speaker Kiran Kumar Reddy replaced him. In the 21st century, there had been a movement in Andhra Pradesh led by Telangana activists. They believed people from that region were discriminated against. The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS, Telangana National Council), one of the parties in the Maha Kutami, had fought for a new state. Though they lost seats in the 2009 election, a fast by their leader, K. Chandrashekar Rao (Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao) led to opposition parties endorsing it. The national government, controlled by the INC, then announced that there would be a separate state, which was created in 2014. The Andhra Pradesh that existed before then is now sometimes called United or Undivided Andhra Pradesh. Chandrashekar Rao would become the new state, Telangana’s first CM. Kumar Reddy resigned from the INC to protest Congress’s support for bifurcation, and thus there was no majority for him as CM and President’s rule was imposed for the 2014 election, which was just before the split. In the united state, the NDA (TDP and BJP) was the largest party, with the new YSR Congress Party (YSRCP, the YSR stands for Youth, Labour and Farmer), formed by the family of Rajasekhra Reddy who split from Congress after his death coming second. The TRS came third and the INC dropped to fourth. Among seats that stayed in Andhra Pradesh after the split, the NDA (dominated by the TDP) won a majority, with the YSRCP in opposition and the INC losing all seats. Naidu returned as CM. The first election after the split was also the last election, in 2019. The YSRCP won a landslide with 151 of 175 seats, while the TDP won 23. The last seat went to the small Jana Sena Party (JSP, People’s Front Party). Y. S. Jagan Mohan Reddy (Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy) became CM. This time, three alliances are running: the YSRCP on its own, the NDA, dominated by the TDP but with the JSP and BJP running in some seats, and INDIA, dominated by the INC but with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI (M) and CPI running in a few seats each. One poll has the NDA ahead, with Naidu looking to reclaim power.
Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy (YSRCP), Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh since 2019 Also on 13 May, the Indian state of Odisha will hold the first phase of its Legislative Assembly election. Orrisa Province was formed in 1936 under British rule, separating from Bihar and Orissa Province on a linguistic basis. After Indian independence, it became the state of Odisha. The first election in independent India was in 1952. The INC won the most seats, although were denied a majority because of the strong performance of the All India Ganatantra Parishad (GP, All India Democratic Society) and independents. A minority government was formed under new CM Nabakrushna Choudhuri. In 1956 he resigned after criticism of his response to a flood. Governor of Bombay Harekrushna Mahatab replaced him. In 1957, the INC stayed the top party, but the GP improved to be hot on their tail. Mahatab continued, but in 1961 Mahatab resigned due to a fractured Congress and President’s rule and an election was declared. This time, the INC won a majority, with the GP as opposition, and Biju Patnaik became CM. Under the Kamaraj Plan of 1963, in which senior Congress leaders would resign from government to focus on positions in the party, Patnaik stepped down. Biren Mitra replaced him until 1965, when Revenue Minister Sadashiva Tripathy replaced him. In 1967, the INC declined to second behind the new Swatantra Party (Independent Party), which was liberal as opposed to the INC’s socialism. However, with good results also for the Jana Congress (Peoples Congress) and Praja Socialist Party (PSP, Citizen Socialist Party) meant a fractured parliament. A Swatantra-Jana coalition was formed under the Swatantra Party’s Rajendra Narayan Singh Deo. After the coalition broke up in 1971, Deo resigned and President’s rule was imposed. The INC became the top party in the new election, although good results came for a coalition between the Swatantra Party and Utkal Congress (Utkal being an ancient name for Odisha). The coalition took office under independent Bishwanath Das, but this lasted until 1972, when defections caused Das his government. Nandini Satpathy of the INC became CM. She also could not keep a government together, so called for dissolution of the legislature. This was granted, with President’s rule in 1973 and an election in 1974. The INC (I) fell just short of a majority, with the Utkal Congress overtaking the Swatantra Party into second. Satpathy returned as CM, but was forced out in 1976. After a brief period of President’s rule, Binayak Acharya became CM in a Congress government. However, the government dismissed him and imposed President’s rule in 1977, with elections being held. The JP won a landslide against the INC here, and Nilamani Routray became CM. However, the government then dismissed him and imposed President’s rule again in 1980. The JP was falling apart, and the INC (I) won the 1980 election in a landslide. Janaki Ballabh Patnaik became CM. In 1985, the INC (I) beat the JP to another landslide. Patnaik was replaced by veteran Hemananda Biswal in 1989, but the INC was destroyed by the Janata Dal (JD, People’s Party) in 1990, with Biju Patnaik returning as CM. In 1995, there was a reversal, with the INC winning a narrow majority ahead of the JD and Janaki Ballabh Patnaik becoming CM. Congress removed Janaki Ballabh Patnaik in 1999 regarding his role in a rape case. Former state INC President Giridhar Gamang replaced him briefly, before Biswal replaced him. In 2000, the Biju Janata Dal (Biju People’s Party, BJD, Biju refers to Biju Patnaik) won the most seats, with the BJP second and INC dropping to third despite winning the most votes. Naveen Patnaik, son of Biju Patnaik, became CM in alliance with the BJP. In 2004, the BJD lost some ground to the INC who came second, but still governed. In 2009, the BJD won a landslide majority as the INC came second and BJP dropped to minor status. An even bigger landslide was won in 2014. In 2019, it was another landslide for the BJD, who won 112 of 146 seats. The BJP won 23, and INC nine. The last two seats went to the CPI (M) and an independent, with one seat delayed due to death of a candidate. This time, the BJP hope to finally unseat Naveen Patnaik, with the BJD, BJP, and INC all running a full slate of candidates. Manmohan Samal leads the BJP here, while the Odisha INC President is Sarat Pattanyak. As Odisha is a large state, the election is held in phases, similar to the national election.
Naveen Patnaik (BJD), Chief Minister of Odisha since 2000 On 14 May, the American city of Wheeling in West Virginia will hold its municipal election. West Virginia dates back to the American Civil War. The state of Virginia was among those to secede after the 1860 election. The US was split between those who opposed slavery in the north, and those who supported it in the south. The victory of the most anti-slavery party, the Republican Party, in that election, led to southerners seceeding, forming the Confederacy. Virginia was one of those states, but West Virginia then seceeded from Virginia to stay in the Union. After the Civil War, West Virginia remained a state. The Republicans would be in tandem with the Democratic Party as the main two parties. With slavery abolished, the Democrats now worked to at least have segregation between white and black people in the South. However, in the North they became a pro-business party, known as Bourbon Democrats: they benefitted from southern votes and allowed segregationists to continue. West Virginia was a close state in its early years, that leaned Democratic. It voted for Democrats in every election from 1876 to 1892, but then Republican in every election from 1896 to 1928. The sole exception was 1912, when the Republicans were split in two. As the Great Depression swept through the US, the Republican administration lost popularity and the Democratic Party, led by Franklin D. Roosevelt (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) became popular for its “New Deal” response to the depression. That would be the first of six straight Democratic wins, including the 1952 election, when war hero Dwight D. Eisenhower (Dwight David Eisenhower) won a landslide nationally, although Eisenhower did take West Virginia in 1956. The Democrats won the nation and West Virginia in 1960 and 1964, the latter in a landslide. The West Virginians were loyal to the Democrats based on New Deal policies and strong unionisation, rather than segregation. When the party abandoned segregation amidst the black civil rights movement, West Virginians did not at first desert them like they did in other states. However, in 1972’s Republican landslide under President Richard Nixon, he did carry West Virginia easily. Jimmy Carter took the state back in 1976 for the Democrats, and even after he was defeated heavily in 1980, still won the state. President Ronald Reagan did win the state (and every state bar one) in his 1984 landslide, but the Democrats won it back in their 1988 defeat and kept it under Bill Clinton in his victories in 1992 and 1996. In George W. Bush (George Walker Bush)’s 2000 victory, he would relatively easily carry the former Democratic stronghold. The Democrats would be associated with environmentalism, something that hurt them in a coal mining state. Bush won again in 2004, and even after the Democrats’ strong victory in 2008 under Barack Obama, West Virginia went solidly Republican. In 2012, when Obama was re-elected, it was an even bigger landslide in West Virginia, and in Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, it was the most Republican state. In 2020, Joe Biden was elected President for the Democrats, but West Virginia was still Trump’s second best state in defeat. The Democrats are now a broadly liberal party, and the Republicans a conservative one. Wheeling was a hub of anti-slavery sentiment in part due to a large German population, who had no sentimentality towards the practice, but despite being a former state capital has been in decline for decades. These elections are held for the mayoralty and the council, with six seats (up from five), on a non-party basis. Notably, in 2020 Rosemary Ketchum became the first transgender person elected to office in the state when she won Ward 3. The two-term Mayor Glen Elliott is not running for re-election, instead running as a Democratic candidate for the US Senate. Candidates to replace him include Vice Mayor Chad Thalman, Ketchum, and others.
Glenn Elliott (Independent/Democratic), Mayor of Wheeling since 2016 On 19 May, the Dominican Republic holds general elections, for its President and both houses of its legislature. The island of Hispaniola became a Spanish possession, but they ceded the west part to France in the 1697 Treaty of Ryswick following the Nine Years’ War. After a period of French rule, a revolt led the area around the main city, Santo Domingo, returning to Spain with British help. On the other side of the island, the Haitian Revolution had ocurred, meaning there was no French presence left on Hispaniola, just the independent Haiti as well as the Spanish part. In 1821, independence was declared, but the new Republic of Spanish Haiti was quickly invaded by Haiti and annexed it. Dominicans were treated harshly under Haitian rule, and La Trinitaria (The Trinity) emerged to oppose it. In 1844 they declared independence, but Haiti did not stop fighting back until 1856. The Dominican Republic received its first Constitution in 1844, with the first direct elections in 1866. In 1861, Spain invaded, but Dominicans fight back and removed Spanish rule again by 1865. There was huge instability and a weak party system in the first years of the Dominican Republic, with coups, factionalism, oligarchy and corruption common. The assassination of President Ramón Cáceres in 1911 led to a brief but violent civil war. Though the war ended, the country never regained stability and the US decided to occupy it from 1916 to 1922, with elections restored in 1924. The elected Horacio Vázquez was removed in a coup by Rafael Trujillo in 1930. The election held in the aftermath was rigged in Trujillo’s favour, and he would rule the country as President or with a puppet for the next three decades. He founded a right-wing Dominican Party as the sole legal party, created a personality cult and huge repression. He was re-elected as the only candidate in 1934, but an uproar internationally over a massacre of Haitians in the Dominican Republic forced him to retire and not run in 1938, though in fact he still controlled the country. In 1942 (the first election with female suffrage) he was re-elected unopposed, and then again in 1947 with token opposition. In 1952, he was pressured into stepping down in favour of his brother Héctor Trujillo, but in fact still ruled. Héctor Trujillo was re-elected unopposed in 1957. Though the US put up with Trujillo’s worst excesses for a while, seeing it as a better alternative to a potential Cold War enemy or the instability and poverty that preceded him, an attempt to assassinate the democrat and President of Venezuela Rómulo Betancourt, an important ally of the US, meant the Americans finally lost patience with him. In 1961, dissidents assassinated Trujillo, and there is some evidence of US involvement, although there was also a large amount of Dominicans who opposed him, especially the young who did not remember what preceded him. Though his son Ramfis Trujillo still controlled the government, the US pressured him into going. However, Juan Bosch, a liberal, was elected President in 1962 and removed in a coup in 1963 by the conservative military. Bosch began calling himself a Constitutionalist, but his courting of leftists meant that when Civil War broke out in 1965, the US sided with the ‘Loyalist’ faction. After the end of the Civil War, elections were held again in 1966. Joaquín Balaguer of the Reformist Party, a puppet President of Trujillo from 1960 to 1962 defeated Bosch, and had his own autocratic streak with no. In 1970, he won again, and again in 1974 in a big landslide. The election of Jimmy Carter in the US led to a more stringent focus on human rights in US-aligned countries, and so the 1978 election was much fairer than the others under Balaguer. He was defeated by Antonio Guzmán Fernández of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD), Bosch’s party. Guzmán was beset by depression and killed himself in 1982. Vice President Jacobo Majluta Azar finished his term while the PRD’s Salvador Jorge Blanco defeated both Balaguer and Bosch (who had split party, forming his own Dominican Liberation Party or PLD) in that year’s election. In 1986, Balaguer defeated the PRD’s Jacobo Maljuta and Bosch, for his newly expended Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC). In 1990 Balaguer narrowly beat Bosch and the PRD’s José Francisco Peña Gómez, with fraud accusations beseting him. In 1994, Balaguer again very narrowly won against Peña Gómez, with Bosch a distant third, a new agreement called the Pact for Democracy introduced term limits. Balaguer would not run again in new 1996 elections. A two-round system was introduced, with Peña Gómez winning the first round but being joined by the PLD’s Leonel Fernández in the second round, and the PRSC’s Jacinto Peynado Garrigosa eliminated. Fernández narrowly won the runoff to become President after Balaguer endorsed him. In 2000, the PRD’s Hipólito Mejía won the first round, just missing a majority, while the PLD’s Danilo Medina narrowly finished ahead of Balaguer. Medina realised that a runoff was pointless so stood aside to allow Mejia to take office. Fernández defeated Mejia in the first round in 2004, with the PRSC’s Eduardo Estrella performing poorly. In 2008, Fernández again beat the PRD candidate, this time Miguel Vargas. Again it was in the first round as the PRSC fell to minor status. In 2012, the PLD-led alliance candidate Danilo Medina beat the PRD-led alliance’s Mejía. In 2016, the PRD endorsed Medina, and thus fell to become a minor party in Congress. A splinter party, the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) became the main opposition, with candidate Luis Abinader losing to Medina. However, in 2020, Abinader defeated the PLD-led alliances Gonzalo Castillo. In the Senate, the PRM won a majority with seventeen seats, the PLD won six, while the left-wing People’s Force (FP) who ran Leonel Fernández and came third in the election won one, with their ally, the PRSC, winning six. In the lower house, the PRM won 86 seats, the PLD 75, the PUSC six, the PRD four, the People’s Force three, and a number of other parties between one and three. Right now, Abinader, running for the PRM-led Dominican Republic Advances aliance is miles ahead in the election, with Fernández running again for the FP-led Rescue Dominican Republic and expected to come second, and PLD candidate Abel Martínez for the National Progressive Bloc expected to come a distant third.
Luis Abinader (PRM), President of the Dominican Republic since 2020 On 20 May, India will hold the fifth phase of its general election. This phase will include Ladakh and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, is looking to continue his ten-year rule. From a young age, Modi was connected to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS, National Volunteer Organisation), a Hindu nationalist right-wing organisation that is among the largest far-right movements in the world, and is also very close to the BJP. He was jailed for protesting The Emergency as an RSS volunteer. The RSS was banned but still operated, and after The Emergency ended he was assigned to the BJP. After leading the party’s successful election campaign in Gujarat 1998, he became the party’s general secretary. However, CM Keshbuhai Patel’s performance was struggling, and Modi was then drafted as his replacement. In 2002, after a train with Hindu pilgrims burned, he blamed Muslims for it, helping lead to anti-Muslim riots in Gujarat. Modi has often been accused of promoting Hindu supremacy and discrimination against Muslims. He resigned but the BJP refused this and so instead a new election was held in 2002, and Modi won another majority. However, the BJP lost the 2004 election, and some BJP figures including the ousted Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajipayee blamed in part the decline of the BJP’s relationship with Muslims, and he was seen outside the country as an extremist: he was banned from the US, UK, and EU until he became Prime Minister. After this, though he retained Hindu nationalist sentiment, he also focused on Gujarat’s economic development. Poverty had been a longtime issue in India. In 2014, the BJP ran a campaign focusing on Modi’s personality more than anything else. They focused on the development of Gujarat, while Hindu nationalism did not take a back seat: more a passenger seat. Modi won the 2019 election as well. Under him, a cult of personality of sorts has been developed in BJP circles, more as an electoral strategy than anything else: he has very high approval ratings and so, they deploy his image frequently. A right-winger, he has privatised many government ministries and been accused of fermenting communal tension, especially against Muslims, and democratic backsliding. Despite criticism before he became PM, Modi has had a pretty good relationship with the West: as he looks to bolster India’s stature on the world, he sees China as a key rival. However, a dispute with Canada, an important Western power, was damaged by the accusation that Indian special forces had killed a Canadian Sikh-separatist activist on Canadian soil, and the relationship between India and countries like the US and UK is not as close as say, the relationship between two Western or EU countries; India has a tradition of being a non-aligned country in the Cold War and also being close to Russia. His popularity, along with the politicisation of some state bodies will almost certainly guarantee his victory in 2024.
Om Birla (BJP), Speaker in India’s lower house since 2019 On the same date, the Indian state of Odisha will hold the second phase of the election. Naveen Patnaik has governed the state since 2000, the longest of any incumbent and second longest ever. Non-political before his father Biju Patnaik’s death, he soon split from the Janata Dal to form the BJD. He was in the Vajipayee government as Mines Minister before joining state politics and winning the 2000 election in alliance with the BJP. In 2004, they won again, but in 2007, he broke from the NDA and BJP. In Odisha, riots against Christians celebrating Christmas emerged when Hindus arrived protesting the erection of an arch. Sangh Parivar (RSS Family) organisations, who had long stoked tension between Christians and Hindus in Odisha, started attacking Christmas markets, and it led to fighting. Patnaik broke from the NDA and BJP over the latter’s support for the RSS in this upheaval. Going alone, they won a landslide in 2009, and even in the BJP’s national landslide of 2014, won another landslide. As well as the state house, they won twenty of 21 state seats in the national parliament. In 2019, they won again, although the BJP gained seven seats in the national parliament and the INC gained one. Christians make up just 3% of the population, but conversion efforts in some areas have led to tension, something which the BJP hopes to capitalise on.
Raghubar Das (BJP), Governor of Odisha since 2023 On 21 May, the Canadian provincial constituency of Pictou West in Nova Scotia will hold a by-election. Nova Scotia, like Ontario, was part of Canada from the start (1867). However, many were against Confederation, and the Anti-Confederation Party won the 1867 election, against the Liberal and Conservative parties, together as the Confederation Party. Despite this, the Premier William Annand reluctantly accepted Confederation, keeping his province in Canada. Thus, the Anti-Confederation movement collapsed, Annand joined the Liberal Party, and Liberal-Conservative two-party politics emerged, although the Liberal party dominated, and governed from 1878 to 1925 without a break. In 1920, United Farmers and Labour (left-wing) candidates won more seats than the Tories, with a combined eleven seats in cooperation. However, these movements did not last long and at the next election in 1925, the Conservatives won a landslide. That said, three CCF members would be elected in 1941. The Liberals governed again without a break from 1933 to 1956, in 1945 the now-Progressive Conservatives did not win a single seat. However, the PCs would dominate after this, governing until 1993, apart from between 1970 and 1978. The Liberal government of John Savage elected in 1993 engaged on an unpopular austerity programme, and in 1997 Savage was removed by his own party. In 1998, the Liberals lost their majority amidst an NDP surge to joint-first and PC gains (although they came third), and the Liberals relied on PC support. In 1999, a PC majority was won and the NDP and Liberals were tied for second. John Hamm was reduced to a minority in 2003, and in 2006, new Premier Rodney MacDonald made further losses to the NDP. In 2009, the NDP won a majority under Darrell Dexter, with the Liberals second and PC Party third. However, in 2013, the NDP were themselves destroyed to third, with Stephen McNeil’s Liberals taking power and the PCs in opposition. In 2017, McNeil had a reduced majority with losses to the PCs and NDP. McNeil resigned in favour of Iain Rankin in 2021, but this did not save them. In that election, the PCs won 31 seats, the Liberals seventeen and the NDP six, with one independent also winning. Tim Houston became the new Premier. Pictou West has been a seat since 1949. In the Liberal landslide that year, Stewart W. Proudfoot (Stewart William Proudfoot) beat the PC candidate by about 500 votes, but in 1953, a more narrow Liberal win, he beat the PCs councillor Harvey Veniot by just nine votes. In 1956, when the PC party took power, Veniot defeated Proudfoot by one hundred votes. Veniot beat his Liberal opponent in the PC victory of 1960 by four hundred votes, a CCF candidate also ran, winning about 150 votes. Veniot expanded his lead in a win over just a Liberal candidate to nearly one thousand votes in 1963, another PC win, and in 1967, a PC landslide, to about 1,500 votes. In 1970, when the Liberals won, Veniot still won the seat by about seven hundred votes, with an NDP candidate entering and winning six hundred. However, with the Liberals increased victory in 1974, Liberal Dan Reid defeated Veniot by 22 votes as an NDP candidate got over seven hundred. Reid was defeated by the PCs Donald P. McInnes (Donald Peter McInnes) by about 150 votes in 1978, when the PCs returned to power, with an NDP candidate on over one thousand votes. In the PC landslide of 1981, McInnes beat the Liberal candidate Doris Rink by 1,400 votes, while the NDP vote declined to seven hundred. 1984 was an even bigger landslide and McInnes won by nearly two thousand votes, while the NDP declined to five hundred. As the PC Party won a slim majority in 1988, McInnes still won a majority of 1,600 over the Liberals, the NDP recovered to nine hundred votes. In the Liberal landslide of 1993, McInnes held on by seven hundred votes, the NDP won 1,100 and an independent 350. McInnes did not run in 1998, an election with a three-way hung parliament. The seat was won by the NDP’s Charlie Parker, a councillor, by 33 votes, while the Liberal candidate won about half the vote share of the NDP and PC candidates. In the 1999 snap election, won by the PC party, Pictou West was a seat they gained, with Muriel Baillie winning by 150 votes and the Liberal candidate a strong third with over two thousand votes. Baillie did not run again in 2003, when the Tories were reduced to minority government, and the PC candidate Paul Veniot was defeated by Parker by nine hundred votes, as the Liberal candidate declined to about 1,600. In 2006, another minority government for the PCs, Parker defeated the PC candidate Ron Baillie by over 1,500 votes as the Liberals lost over half their vote share. In the NDP victory of 2009, Parker held the seat easily as the PC candidate declined to come third behind the Liberals by five votes. In 2013, a Liberal win, Parker lost to the PCs’ Karla MacFarlane by 450 votes while the Liberal vote also increased. In 2017, when the Liberals won an slim majority, MacFarlane kept the seat blue by a huge three thousand votes, as the NDP only just came second. In 2021, a victory for Houston’s Progressive Conservatives, MacFarlane won 63.6% of the vote, with the Liberal candidate improving to second and the NDP in third. MacFarlane served as interim PC leader in 2018 and was also Speaker from 2023 to 2024, but stepped down this year, also causing a by-election. Opinion polls suggest that in the next election, the PC party will expand its lead, mostly on the back of Liberal votes, while the NDP will stay solid and may even come second due to the Liberal decline. PC candidate and farmer Marco McLeod is therefore guaranteed to win, with the real battle perhaps between 2021 candidate and Liberal councillor Mary Woolridge-Elliott and the NDP councillor Melinda MacKenzie for second.
Karla MacFarlane (PC), MLA for Pictou West from 2013 to 2024 On the same date, the American house constituency of California’s 20th congressional district will hold a special election. California was admitted to the Union in 1850. It voted for Republicans in every election from 1860 to 1928 apart from 1880, 1892 and 1916, with the caveat that in 1912, while the national Republican party was split, the state Republicans endorsed the Progressive candidate who carried the state. However, the Democrats took the next five elections nationally and in the state, with the first four being landslides for Roosevelt, and the fifth in 1948 being a much tighter affair. The eighteen thousand votes Harry S. Truman (the S did not stand for anything) won by in the state gave him the national presidency. However, after this, the Republicans would win the state in every election from 1952 to 1988 apart from the Democratic landslide of 1964, although most of these would be Republican national victories, the only exceptions being 1960 and 1976. In 1992, the state voted for Bill Clinton by a large margin, and since then, it has always been reliably Democratic as a generally liberal state. Interestingly, it is one of few states where Donald Trump got a better vote share in his 2020 defeat than his 2016 victory, indicating perhaps a slow change. Regardless of if this occurs, the state is still liberal, but as the most populous in the union, it is also a place with pockets of Republican support, and indeed very split areas. The 20th district is a safe Republican area. Known as the 22nd district, in 2006 it elected Kevin McCarthy as its Republican member. McCarthy rose through the ranks of the party: after being re-elected in 2008 he was Chief Deputy Whip of the party, and then after the 2010 election House Majority Whip. In the 2012 vote he was redistricted to the 23rd district, and in 2014 became House Majority Leader. Longtime Speaker Paul Ryan retired at the 2018 election, after which McCarthy became House Republican Leader and therefore House Minority Leader (as the Democrats won). At the 2022 election, he was redistricted to the 20th, the current number. The Republicans won the race, so he became Speaker. However, it was a narrow Republican majority, and right-wing hardliners known as the Freedom Caucus stalled his election as Speaker for a few days. McCarthy was removed anyway in 2023 after a funding deal was passed with Democratic votes to stop a government shutdown. He resigned as a congressman after this. In California, blanket primaries are used: this one was on 19 March. The top two candidates of any party advance, and two Republicans were in the top two. Vince Fong, a member of the state lower house won the most votes, while local sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly finished in front of Democrat Marisa Wood. Fong is expected to win, with the endorsement of McCarthy, Mike Johnson, who replaced McCarthy as speaker, Trump, and most other Republicans. Therefore, he is the favourite in this election.
Kevin McCarthy (Republican), Representative from California’s 22nd district from 2007 to 2013, California’s 23rd district from 2013 to 2023, and California’s 20th district in 2023 On 25 May, India will hold the sixth phase of its general election. This phase is for Haryana, Delhi, and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and the delayed seat in Jammu and Kashmir. The INC has found itself with problems since 2014, when they were destroyed by the BJP. Corruption cases hurt their image, and India had suffered poor economic development, while Modi was linked to Gujarat’s successful development. Rahul Gandhi was elected INC President in 2017, but resigned in 2019 after a second defeat. After an election delayed by COVID, in 2022 they elected Mallikarjun Kharge President. Kharge has had a long political career himself: in 1972, he was elected to the Legislative Assembly in Karnataka, and became a minister in 1978, and later served in roles including Home Minister and Leader of the Opposition. In 2009 he entered the national lower house, becoming a minister until the INC’s defeat in 2014, and he lost his own seat in 2019. He is now Leader of the Opposition in the upper house, and INC President and INDIA chair, although he is not running for a lower house seat and it seems to be unclear whether he is even a prime ministerial candidate. He is the only Leader of the Opposition the INC have as since 2014, the post has remained vacant as every party but the BJP is too small for it to be held. Many state governments have also been lost, either through losing elections or defection. Of India’s 31 legislative assemblies (28 for states and three for union territories, five union territories do not have legislative assemblies): Jammu and Kashmir has not held elections since being formed in 2019, with President’s rule in effect; of the remaining thirty, the NDA control eighteen, twelve of them from the BJP. Six other parties in the alliance have one each. Nine are controlled by INDIA parties, only three of which (Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana) are ran by the INC. Of the others, many were not part of the UPA and it is hoped that adding popular regional parties will boost the total opposition numbers. Three states are ran by non-NDA or INDIA parties, including the BJD in Odisha and the YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh (the other state is Mizoram). The name INDIA may have been picked on purpose as the government has been instead focusing on the native name Bharat, even in English texts (i.e. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of Bharat). Thus, they may be trying to claim the name India as their own.
Utpal Kumar Singh (non-party), Secretary-General of the Indian lower house since 2020 On the same date, the Indian state of Odisha will hold the third phase of its state Legislative Assembly election. Though Naveen Patnaik is a mighty foe for the BJP, they have made inroads even in places where they have seldom governed before. They hold seats now in every Legislative Assembly (not including Jammu and Kashmir) apart from Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. In Andhra Pradesh, they are trying to hang on the TSP’s coattails to get a presence there. Kerala is unique because it has been a constant battleground between the far-left and Congress, but even though they lost their seat in 2021, the BJP still got a significant total of 11.3% of the vote. The BJP have often challenged places where Congress has ruled or even popular local parties, often through enticing a popular figure to defect, or by bringing popular national figures like Modi to campaign. Therefore, no state can be considered safe, even for veterans like Patnaik. However, you don’t win 24 years of unbroken rule by chance. The INC are the only party other than Patnaik’s BJD and the BJP running a full slate. The scoreboard last time was BJD 112, BJP 23, INC nine, CPI (M) one, independents one. It may be tough for Congress to stay alive with the BJD and BJP duking it out.
Pramila Mallik (BJD), Speaker of the Odisha Legislative Assembly since 2023 On 26 May, Cambodia will hold provincial elections. Cambodia has been dominated by the Cambodian People’s Party for decades under Hun Sen, since Vietnam invaded the country when it was controlled by the Khmer Rouge regime. Under a communist state, it was known as the Kampuchean People’s Revolutionary Party (KPRP), but it then dropped the red image near the end of the Cold War. The Khmer Rouge was the recognised official government, and a deal led to UN-sponsored elections, but soon after Hun Sen controlled power and has consolidated it ever since, although protest movements do sometimes spring up. Sen retired as Prime Minister in 2023 after elections, with his son Hun Manet taking office, although after an indirect Senate election Sen became President of the Senate. The opposition movement has been centred around the Candlelight Party, in various guises, for years, but they have been blocked from running due to supposed irregularities. This has been the case since they won 22% of the vote in local elections. Doubtless, nothing will change in Cambodia after this election either.
Hun Manet (CPP), Prime Minister of Cambodia since 2023 On the same date, the Portuguese autonomous region of Madeira will hold a regional election. Since the transition to democracy in the 1970s, Portugal developed a multi-party system, although one dominated by the Socialist Party (PS) on the centre-left and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) on the centre-right. The Portuguese Constituent Assembly was held in 1975, with the PS and People’s Democratic Party (PPD, an old name of the PSD) winning the most seats: in Madeira, the PPD took six and the PS one although the PS won the most national seats. The new constitution gave Madeira autonomy, and in 1976 Portugal had its first normal election, with four main parties (in order of seats won): the Socialists, the PPD, the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), a Christian democratic party, and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP). The PPD won four seats in Madeira, with the Socialists and CDS winning one each. In the first Madeiran election in 1976, the PPD took 29 seats, the Socialists eight, and the CDS two. The remaining two went to the Popular Democratic Union (UDP), a rival party to the PCP that was smaller nationally. Jaime Ornelas Camacho of the PPD became President of the Government, but in 1978 he was replaced by Alberto João Jardim, a PPD founder. The PPD then became the PSD. In 1979, to try and oust the Socialists, the national PSD formed an alliance called the Democratic Alliance (AD) with the CDS and much smaller People’s Monarchist Party (PPM). They won the election, with the PS and United People’s Alliance (APU) dominated by the PCP second and third. In Madeira, the PSD ran alone and won four seats, with one for the PS. Another election was needed in 1980, but little changed apart from the PS entering an alliance with smaller parties called the Republican and Socialist Front (FRS). In Madeira, the PSD ran alone again, and won four seats compared to one for the PS, who also ran alone. A regular Madeiran election was also scheduled that day. The PSD won 35 seats, the PS five, the UDP two and the CDS and APU one each. The next Portuguese election was in 1983, by which time the AD and FRS alliances had broken up. The Socialists won the most seats, with the PSD, APU and CDS the other main parties. Madeira again went 4-1 to the PSD. In 1984, a Madeiran election saw the PSD win forty seats, the Socialists six, the UDP two, and the CDS and APU one each. An early Portuguese election was held in 1985, with the PSD the top party ahead of the PS and the new centrist Democratic Renewal Party (PRD), as well as the APU and CDS. Madeira stayed 4-1 PSD. In 1987 the PSD won a majority ahead of the PS and Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), which succeeded the APU, while the PRD and CDS slumped. Madeira went 4-1 PSD again. The Madeiran election of 1988 saw the PSD win 41 seats, the Socialists seven, the UDP three and the CDS two. The 1991 election saw the PSD win another majority ahead of the PS and the CDU lost half their seats, Madeira went 4-1 PSD. In 1992, Madeira saw 39 seats go to the PSD, twelve to the Socialists, two for the renamed CDS – People’s Party (CDS-PP, trying to be similar to the successful Spanish party) andone each for the CDU and the National Solidarity Party (PSN) which focused on pensioners. In 1995, the PS won the election without a majority ahead of the PSD and much smaller CDS-PP and CDU. This time, Madeira only went 3-2 PSD. In 1996, the Madeira PSD still won 41 seats compared to thirteen for the PS, two each for the CDS-PP and CDU, and one for the UDP. The PS won again nationally in 1999, ahead of the PSD and again much smaller CDU and CDS-PP. Madeira still went 3-2 in favour of the PSD. In 2000, the PSD won 41 seats, the PS thirteen, the CDS-PP three, and the UDP and CDU two each. The 2002 national election saw a hung parliament as the PSD finished ahead of the PS, with the CDS-PP and CDU the minor parties. Madeira went 4-1 PSD in a minority government. In 2004, the PSD took 44 seats in Madeira, with nineteen for the PS, two each for the CDS-PP and CDU, and one for the Left Bloc (BE) which succeeded the UDP. The PS did win power back nationally in 2005, beating the PSD, CDU, CDS-PP and BE. The expanded Madeira constituency went 3-3. In 2007, Jardim clashed with Socialist Prime Minister José Socrates over a new regional finance law, and called a new election. The PSD won 33 seats while the Socialists won just seven, with the CDU and CDS-PP on two and one each for the BE, the Earth Party (MPT), a green conservative party, and the Eurosceptic right-wing New Democracy Party (PND). The Socialists still won power in 2009, though without a majority, as the PSD came second and the CDS-PP, BE, and CDU were the minor parties. Four Madeira seats went PSD, with one each for the PS and CDS-PP. New elections were needed in 2011, won by the PSD ahead of the PS, with the CDS-PP, CDU and BE the smaller parties. Madeira again had four seats for the PSD, and one each for the PS and CDS-PP. In that years Madeiran election, the PSD won 25 seats, with the CDS-PP on nine, the PS on six, the centre-left Portuguese Labour Party (PTP) on three, and one each for the CDU, PND, animalist Party for Animals and Nature (PAN, later People-Animals-Nature) and the MPT. Jardim stepped down in 2015 for new elections. The PSD still won a majority with 24 seats, while the CDS-PP won seven, the Change Coalition (CM) of the PS, PTP, PAN and MPT six, a new regionalist party called Together for the People (JPP) five, the CDU and BE two, and the PND one. Former Mayor of Funchal Miguel Albuquerque replaced Jardim, who governed from 1978 to 2015. The top list in Portugal in 2015 was a coalition called Portugal Ahead (PàF) between the PSD and CDS-PP. They won the most votes ahead of the PS, BE, CDU and PAN. However, in Madeira, the PSD ran alone and won three seats, with two for the PS and one for the BE. Socialist António Costa became PM with BE, CDU and PAN votes. The PSD lost their Madeira majority in 2019, with 21 seats compared to nineteen for the PS. The CDS-PP and JPP won three, with one for the CDU. The PSD needed a deal with the CDS-PP to stay in power. In the 2019 election, the PS won the most seats, but still missed a majority, with the PSD in second. The BE and CDU were next, with the CDS-PP and PAN after that. Three new parties won one seat: the right-wing Chega (Enough), the liberatrian Liberal Intiative (IL), and the progressive LIVRE (FREE). Madeira was split 3-3 between the PSD and PS. Instead of a formal deal, the PS used a vote-by-vote formula, but this led to opposition parties felling them and a new election in 2022. Costa’s Socialists won a majority here, with the PSD second and Chega and the IL making gains. The CDU and BE fell, with the PAN and LIVRE winning seats, but not the CDS-PP. In Madeira, a PSD/CDS-PP coalition called Madeira First (MF) split the seats 3-3 with the PS. In 2023, the PSD and CDS-PP ran together in a coalition called We Are Madeira, but lost their majority with 23 seats. The PS took eleven, JPP five, Chega four and the CDU, IL, BE, and PAN one each. They managed to convince PAN to vote for them to stay in power. In 2024, a corruption investigation forced out Costa, and a new election was held. The AD was restored and won the most seats, but only two more than the PS, and Chega made huge gains. The remaining parties were the IL, BE, CDU, LIVRE, and PAN. In Madeira, instead of the AD, the MF coalition was used, which won three seats, while the PS took two and Chega one. Luís Montenegro of the PSD is currently leading a minority government, although it is unclear how stable that will be. Meanwhile, corruption allegations also swirled round Albuquerque, forcing him to resign when PAN withdrew support. Albuquerque still leads the Madeira PSD, and will run separately from the CDS-PP this time. It is probable that the latter won’t win any seats. Chega did well in the Portugeuese election here earlier this year but it is unclear whether that will translate. It is unlikely, but possible, that the PDS win a majority, but if they don’t, then an anti-PDS coalition is even more unlikely due to the existence of both Chega and left-wing parties. Therefore, this may solve some questions, but it may equally pose new ones. Madeira has never since democracy was restored in 1976 been led by anything but a PSD President.
Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), President of the Government of Madeira since 2015 On 29 May, Vanuatu holds a constitutional referendum. Vanuatu had several colonial interests, but the UK and France declared it a neutral territory with a Joint Naval Commission from 1887 to 1906. In 1889, a brief unrecognised government called Franceville was created but soon disappeared. In 1906, it became a Condominium of the UK and France called the New Hebrides. The first election did not come until 1963 for a “Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture”, and even then with a very limited franchise. Elections were held again in 1969, and then in 1975, a Representative Assembly with universal suffrage came. The New Hebrides National Party won the most seats, although French interfering helped get in their way. Finally, a 1976 resolution got rid of all of the non-elected seats and an election was held again in 1977. However, these were then boycotted by the National Party, renamed the Vanua’aku Pati (My Land Party, VP), because there was no self-government or referendum, and became a farce. An election was then held in 1979, this time with the Vanua’aku Pati’s participation, and won by them with a majority. Six other parties and two independents won election too. Vanuatu became independent, with Vanua’aku Chief Minister Walter Lini becoming Prime Minister. In the first post-independence election in 1983, Vanua’aku, which was mostly Anglophone, won again, but the opposition coalesced around the Union of Moderate Parties (UMP), which was mostly Francophone. By 1987, all seats bar one was won by Vanua’aku or the UMP, with the former winning again. However, Vanua’aku factionalised and split, and Lini was gone as leader by 1991, forming his own National United Party (NUP). The UMP won the most seats but no majority in 1991 with Vanua’aku and the NUP also getting big totals, and smaller parties improving. A UMP-NUP coalition was formed around the Francophone Maxime Carlot Korman of the UMP. In 1995, the VP-dominated Unity Front won the most seats, but the UMP-NUP coalition held on to a majority, just. The UMP’s Serge Vohor became PM, winning party support off of Korman. In 1996, Korman managed to win the premiership back, but he lost it again later that year. An election in 1998 saw the UMP lose five seats to the Vanua’aku Party and with it the UMP-NUP majority. Instead, an Anglophone Vanua’aku-NUP coalition was formed under Vanua’aku leader Donald Kalpokas. However, in 1999 he fell with the small Melanesian Progressive Party (MPP) a splinter from the VP, seeing its leader Barak Sopé becoming PM. However, he resigned in 2001 before a confidence vote could remove him, with Edward Natapei replacing him. In 2002, the UMP became the largest party, but with the VP, NUP, MPP and others winning seats, Parliament was fractured. Natapei continued until 2004, with a VP-NUP coalition that lost its majority at that election. Despite only winning eight of 53 seats, Vohor formed a UMP-led coalition unity government, which lasted months when he tried to recognise Taiwan without consulting the Cabinet. The opposition then removed him for Ham Lin̄i of the NUP, who restored relations with China. In 2008, the VP was the top party, with the NUP, UMP and Vanuatu Republican Party (VRP) the main others. Korman formed the VRP when he lost his battle for the UMP with Vohor. Natapei defeated Korman to form a government, but removed in a 2010 vote of no confidence for Sato Kilman of the centre-left People’s Progressive Party (PPP). In 2011, Kilman was temporarily replaced by Vohor until the vote was ruled invalid because he won by a relative, not absolute majority. In 2012, the MPP made gains as the VP was still largest, but by now sixteen parties and four independents had seats in the 52-seat Parliament. Kilman lost his majority in 2013 thanks to defections and resigned, with Moana Carcasses Kalosil of the Green Confederation replacing him. He was replaced in 2014 in a vote by the VP’s Joe Natuman, until in 2015 a vote led to Kilman getting power again. The 2016 election did nothing to change the fractured parliament, after which the small Reunification Movement for Change (RMC)’s Charlot Salwai became PM, in an eight-party coalition with independents as well. He lasted until the 2020 election, where the Land and Justice Party (GJP) won the most seats, but the VP’s Bob Loughman became PM with support from the UMP, NUP and others. Parliament was dissolved amidst a pending no-confidence motion in 2022, the latest election. The VP and UMP won seven seats, the RMC and Leaders Party of Vanuatu (LPV) five, the Rural Development Party, GJP and NUP four, the Iauko Group (Eagle Group) three, the PPP and Vanuatu National Development Party (VNDP) two, and eight more parties won one seat each, as well as an independent. The UMP’s Ishmael Kalsakau won power in coalition with the GJP, LPV, RMC, NUP, VNDP, PPP and Laverwo Movement (LM), who have one seat. A security pact with Australia led to a vote of no confidence removing him in 2023, and Kilman replaced him. After a month, Kilman was voted down and now Charlot Salwai is PM again. This constitutional referendum is the first in Vanuatu’s history, and will regulate political parties, and limit votes of no confidence. A weak party system has helped lead to near-constant political chaos in Vanuatu.
Charlot Salwai (RMC), Prime Minister of Vanuatu from 2016 to 2020 and again since 2023 On the same date, Madagascar will hold a parliamentary election. Madagascar was split between several countries but by the eighteenth century was dominated by the Merina Kingdom. However, in 1882 it was recognised as a French protectorate by the UK, the Malagasy Protectorate, and war ensued, won by the French. It became the French Madagascar colony in 1897. It was not until after World War II in 1945 when Madagascar could hold elections. In 1958, a referendum was held on a new French constitution throught the French Union: if accepted Madagascar would become part of the French Community, if not, it would gain full independence. It voted yes, 77.6% in favour. However, in 1960, the Malagasy Republic became an independent sovereign state, though still part of the Community. Elections held in 1960 were won by the mostly pro-French Social Democratic Party (PSD) of Philibert Tsiranana, the country’s first President. In 1965, the first presidential election, Tsiranana won 97.8% of the vote after consolidating power, and in parliamentary elections took 104 of 107 seats. It was not that Madagascar was an autocracy, just that the system helped Tsiranana. In 1970, the PSD again won 104 seats, and then in 1972 Tsiranana was the only candidate. However, after this unrest broke out from farmers and students, and so a referendum was held to hand power over to the military, which passed with 96.4% support. Gabriel Ramanantsoa was in control, but then forced to resign in 1975 and after his replacement was assassinated, and the next leader lasted four months, Didier Ratsiraka took power. A leftist, he called his junta the Supreme Military Council, with Ratsiraka as Chairman. In 1975, a referendum was passed for a new constitution, that was socialist in orientation, with 95.6% support. This also made Ratsiraka a civilian leader. A Marxist-Leninist-style “Popular Front”, called the National Front for the Defence of the Revolution (FNDR) was formed, with the main party being the Malagasy Revolutionary Party (AREMA). The country became the Democratic Republic of Madagascar. All parties had to be affiliated to the FNDR, and a precondition of membership was endorsement of Ratsiraka’s own Red Book, the Charter of the Malagasy Socialist Revolution. However, in 1982, presidential elections were held, with Ratsiraka defeating opposition candidate Monja Joana with an apparent 80.2% of the vote. The one-party system was never all-encompassing, and FNDR parties competed against each other in 1983, albeit with AREMA winning most seats. In 1989, Ratsiraka won 62.7% of the vote. The FNDR still controlled and AREMA still dominated parliamentary elections, but after communism fell in Europe and mass protests broke out in 1991, Ratsiraka agreed to end the system, with a Third Republic replacing the current one, with 72.7% voting in favour of a new constitution in 1992. Ratsiraka was defeated in a presidential runoff by opposition leader Albert Zafy in 1993 after a first round in 1992, and Zafy’s supporters won the 1993 parliamentary election. However, in 1996, Ratsiraka returned in a very close runoff with 50.7% of support against Zafy. AREMA also won the most seats in 1998 parliamentary elections. In 2001, Ratsiraka’s main challenger was businessman Marc Ravalomanana from Tiako I Madagascar (I Love Madagascar, TIM). Though results showed a runoff was needed, Ravalomanana declared himself President in 2002, and a recount gave him a majority. TIM also won a majority of seats. In 2006, he was re-elected with 54.8% of the vote. TIM also won a landslide in 2007 polls. However, the opposition’s Andry Rajoelina took the capital city of Antananarivo as Mayor. Rajoelina and Ravalomanana clashed after this, with Rajoelina calling Ravalomanana a dictator. In 2009, Rajoelina called for a strike, and protests turned violent. As they grew, Rajoelina basically started declaring himself leader of the country. The government responded with force, but the armed forces opposed this and mutinied, forcing out Ravalomanana. The military then declared Rajoelina leader of the country, as he led a “High Transitional Authority”. In 2010, despite a boycott, a new constitution was passed with 72.4% support. The Fourth Republic’s first elections were in 2013. Rajoelina did not run with international pressure, and both Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka were also prevented. Instead, Hery Rajaonarimampianina, whose party New Forces for Madagascar (HGV) was based around him, won the most votes in the first round. He was Minister of Finance in the FAT. He defeated Health Minister Jean Louis Robinson of the AVANA (Party Where the People Are the Priority, also Avana means Rainbow) party in a runoff. However, Rajoelina’s coalition, Together With President Andry Rajoelina (IRD), led by his Young Malagsies Determined (TGV) party won the most seats in the National Assembly. In 2018, Rajaonarimampianina was soundly defeated in the first round, coming third with 8.8% support. The two candidates to advance were familiar: Rajoelina and Ravalomanana. IRD won a majority in 2019, with TIM the main opposition. In the 2023 presidential race, Rajoelina won in the first round with 59.0% support, as Ravalomanana came third with 12.1% and Rajaonarimampianina took 5.2%. The runner-up was businessman Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko. Turnout was low amidst a boycott. In the last election, IRD won 84 seats, TIM sixteen, and five parties one each, with 46 going to independents. Since 2018, the Prime Minister has been Christian Ntsay, a non-party technocrat, with Madagascar a semi-presidential country.
Christian Ntsay (independent), Prime Minister of Madagascar since 2018 On the same date, South Africa also holds general elections. The area had long been a point of colonial interest, and in 1652 the Dutch Cape Colony would be established, with Dutch settlers who would fight with other African tribes migrating south. The UK ended up invading Cape Town during the Napoleonic Wars, as France had invaded the Low Countries and the area was too valuable to fall into French hands. With a British Cape Colony founded, the Dutch settlers emigrated. There was no Dutch official presence, but independent “Boer Republics” were formed: the South African Republic, the Natalia Republic, and the Orange Free State. Natalia was invaded by the UK and annexed to become the Colony of Natal in 1843, The UK got no further due to the Boer victory in the First Boer War, but won in the Second Boer War in 1902, after which the South African Republic and Orange Free State were annexed, becoming the Transvaal and Orange River colonies. In 1910, the Cape, Natal, Transvaal and Orange River colonies were united as the Union of South Africa. The British and Boers still had no love lost, but they agreed on white superiority and thus limited the black franchise. The first election would be in 1910, with each of the new provinces (the former colonies) limiting the franchise differently, but all either limiting or excluding black people. This had the effect that Afrikaners, a majority of whites, could control the government. The main party was the Afrikaner-based South African Party (SAP), which was basically based on Afrikaner parties in the old system, with the pro-British Unionist Party second, and the (white) working-class based Labour Party third. The first Prime Minister was Louis Botha, who was previously Prime Minister of the Transvaal colony. In 1915, the SAP lost their majority, because a third party emerged in the more radical Afrikaner nationalist National Party (NP). Botha needed Unionist support to go on, leading until his 1919 death from Spanish flu. Jan Smuts, another SAP supremo, replaced Botha. In 1920, the National Party came first as the SAP and Unionists made losses. Labour also made gains, but the SAP with Unionist support did have enough to keep Smuts. The SAP and Unionists merged and called a new election in 1921, where the newly-enlarged SAP won a majority, mostly winning seats from Labour. Smuts was relatively pro-British, while a depression had hurt his vote amongst the working-class, leading to him losing his majority. The Nats and Labour formed an alliance, with J. B. M. Hertzog (James Barry Munik Hertzog) of the former becoming PM. In 1929, the Nats won again despite more SAP votes as Labour lost ground. This time, they took a majority. However, the growth of independents cost them a majority in 1933, so they had a coalition with the SAP. They soon merged into a United Party in 1934. The hardline Afrikaner nationalists formed the Purified National Party (GNP) in 1935. In 1938, the United Party beat the GNP, with the other parties being the pro-British Dominion Party and Labour. Hertzog was neutral in World War II, for which he was removed as United Party leader for Smuts. Hertzog merged his faction with the GNP to form the Herenigde Nasionale Party (Reunited National Party, HNP). In 1943, the United Party beat the HNP, Labour, and Dominion Party to win a majority. However, in 1948, despite the United Party winning the most votes, the HNP won the most seats. Hertzog was outmaneouvered by the HNP leadership, and some of his follwoers formed an Afrikaner Party, who came third, with Labour fourth. A HNP-Afrikaner Party coalition was formed under D. F. Malan (Daniel François Malan). The HNP would create a system known as apartheid (separateness), splitting up society into four racial groups: Whites, Coloureds, Indians, and Blacks, with whites having by far the most rights and blacks the least. Black people were already discriminated against, but this strongly increased this. There was also much more repression of dissent. After merging with the Afrikaner Party, the HNP restored the name National Party. The National Party won a majority of their own in 1953, and Malan retired in 1954. J. G. Strijdom (Johannes Gerhardus Strijdom) was elected National leader and became Prime Minister. Strijdom was a hardliner even for the Nats, with him not being Malan’s preferred candidate. In 1958, the Nats won again. Labour lost seats, making it a complete two-party and dominant-party system. However, as his health failed, he was replaced by Hendrik Verwoerd, Minister of Native Affairs (Natives was the term for black people). Verwoerd was an even more stringent white nationalist than Strijdom. In 1960, a referendum passed with 52.3% abolishing the monarchy, creating a Republic of South Africa. In 1961, the Nats won another. Two splinter parties won a seat: the Progressive Party, which split from the United Party to fully oppose apartheid, and the National Union, who split from the National Party who they considered too hardline. The National Union soon merged into the United Party, but the Progressives would stay a force for a while. In 1966, the National Party made further gains from the United Party, with the Progs winning one seat. Later in 1966, Verwoerd was assassinated. Police Minister John Vorster replaced him. The 1970 election was similar, while the Progs gained a few seats in 1974. In 1977, the United Party merged with a National splinter to form the New Republic Party (NRP), while others joined the Progs who became the Progressive Federal Party (PFP). In that election, the PFP became the main opposition party, ahead of the NRP. Vorster retired in 1978, and was replaced by Defence Minister P. W. Botha (Pieter Willem Botha). The Nats won again in 1981, among oter things this cemented the PFP as the opposition. A 1983 referendum had a new constitution, which gave limited inclusion to Coloured and Indian voters. Among other things, it abolished the Premiership and made the hitherto ceremonial State Presidency an executive office. Botha was a white supremacist, but even he knew the tide was turning against South Africa. Botha became State President. Those who opposed the reform formed the Conservative Party, who came second in 1987. Botha retired in 1989, replaced by F. W. de Klerk (Fredrik Willem de Klerk), the National Education and Planning minister. De Klerk led the Nationals to a win in 1989, though both the Conservatives and the PFP,which had merged to become the Democratic Party (DP) made gains. De Klerk negotiated with black political leaders, and in 1992, white voters voted 68.7% to end apartheid. A multiracial election was held in 1994, the first democratic election in history. The main black liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC) of Nelson Mandela, won a majority. The National Party came second. Other parties included the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), a conservative black party: Inkatha means ‘crown’ in Zulu and refers to the traditional Zulu royal leadership. Under the segregation formula, there would be black ‘homelands’ known as Bantustans: independent puppet countries (not recognised by anyone else) that had black leaders: Inkhatha controlled KwaZulu. The Conservatives became known as the Freedom Front (FF), with the DP in fifth. The ANC won another majority in 1999, after which Deputy President Thabo Mbeki took power. The National Party redubbed itself the New National Party (NNP) and came fourth, replaced as the main white party by the DP, who grew to second with the IFP third. The DP then merged (and de-merged) with the NNP, renaming themselves the Democratic Alliance (DA). Mbeki won another majority in 2004. He had rivalled with the more left-wing Jacob Zuma for the ANC leadership, and in 2007 lost the ANC Presidency to him in a vote. After corruption charges were brought against Zuma, which seemed politically motivated, in 2008, Mbeki resigned under ANC pressure. ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe became President until the 2009 election, where the DA made gains and the Congress of the People (COPE) came third. The DA made gains in 2014, when COPE fell apart, but the ANC still won. Zuma was receiving critics in the party, including from Youth League President Julius Malema, who was expelled. He formed the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a far-left organisation, who came third. Zuma’s preferred candidate (his wife) lost to Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa in the 2017 ANC leadership election, and Ramaphosa took the Presidency in 2018. The EFF made gains in 2019: at that election, the ANC won 230 seats, the DA 84, the EFF 44, the IFP fourteen, and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+, the Plus due to mergers) ten: nine other parties won seats. This time, significant things have changed. The black DA leader, Mmusi Maimane resigned in 2019, and was replaced by the white former Chief Whip John Steenhuisen. With the DA notable for its role in opposing Zuma, it courted some black support but is also seen as a party whose base is firmly with minorities. Other parties like ActionSA have formed as black alternatives, but the DA remains the largest opposition party by a distance, and second is the very different EFF. The ANC have fallen due to issues in the governance such as unemployment and corruption. A big hit came when Zuma, who commands respect amongst the Zulu minority, formed a party called uMkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation, MK), named after the ANC’s paramilitary wing during apartheid. Many opposition parties fear one thing only more than continued ANC rule, which is the EFF or a potential for a coalition. Malema is considered a demagogue and has also been accused of racism towards the white and Indian communities. The DA, IFP, FF+, ActionSA and others have formed a “Multi-Party Charter” to try and root out the ANC, but this will be difficult and there is significant tension between the parties within.
Cyril Ramaphosa (ANC), President of South Africa since 2018 On the same date, South Africa will indirectly choose its upper house, the National Council of Provinces (NCOP). South Africa briefly had a tricameral system after Botha’s reforms, with Indian and Coloured houses with little power. A Senate was restored in 1994, with the permanent constitution of 1997 replacing it with the similar NCOP. The old provinces and bantustans were abolished in 1994. Nine new provinces were formed: Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, North West, Northern Province, Northern Cape, and Western Cape. The Northern Cape then was renamed Limpopo. These provinces choose six delegates based on a constitutional formula , with the Premier and three others being special delegates, for a total of ninety members. In the 1994 election, the ANC won seven provinces, with the Nationals taking the Western Cape and the IFP taking KwaZulu-Natal. In 1999, the ANC took seven provinces, the IFP took KwaZulu-Natal, and the NNP needed a coalition with the DP in the Western Cape. In 2004, the ANC won a majority in seven provinces. In KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, they took a minority, thus controlling all nine provinces and the national government. In 2009, they won a majority in eight provinces, but the DA won a majority in the Western Cape. In 2014, the same ocurred. In 2019, the same ocurred again, although with a majority of one in Gauteng. The ANC took 54 members to the NCOP, with the DA taking twenty and EFF eleven. The FF+ won three and the IFP two. The ANC are on the defensive, with the hope for the opposition to denude them of victory in Gauteng, a geographically small but densely populated province. The population is wealthier and more urbanised compared to South Africa in general, a group which the DA, ActionSA and others will look to target. Such a situation would probably leave the ANC looking for kingmakers, including maybe the EFF. On the other hand, the new MK Party could harm the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal. The Zulu population traditionally was fought over between the ANC and IFP, but the ANC won that battle under Zuma, himself a Zulu. Now with the ANC’s most prominent Zulu leader gone (and to many of them, hounded out), they may follow him over to a new party. The ANC must also stave off votes going to the DA, IFP, and EFF. In the Western Cape, the DA’s majority is not fully secure. The Western Cape is the only province where a group other than Blacks are the largest, with Coloureds the highest proportion in the state. The DA has always done well amongst minorities, but dissatisfaction with the ANC, who do much better among black voters than minority ones, has led to radicalism growing. A ‘cape independence’ movement, though hardly widespread, has been sowing the seeds in the Western Cape, and the FF+ have endorsed it. The FF+ are the most explicitly pro-minority (and particularly pro-white) amongst the major parties. The DA will not want to lose votes to the FF+ and the new Referendum Party, but at the same time must not go too far to the right and lose votes to other parties. The DA point to service delivery, which they claim is better in the Western Cape.
Amos Masondo (ANC), Chairperson of the National Council of Provinces since 2019 -
Pakistan: PTI cry foul but Shehbaz holds onto power
On 8 February, elections were held in Pakistan for the lower house of the legislature, the National Assembly of Pakistan. No party got a majority, but the aftermath of the elections led to a charged atmosphere.
The facts
The National Assembly has 336 seats, elected for five-year terms. There are 266 first-past-the-post constituencies. Then, sixty seats reserved for women are elected proportionally based on how each party did in each province, and the remaining ten seats reserved for non-Muslims are elected proportionally based on party performance nationwide. Though the government elected in 2018 wanted Electronic Voting Machines, their legislation was reversed after the government changed. The election is held on the same day as provincial elections.
Pakistan factfile
- Population: 241.5 million (2023)
- Religions: 96.6% Islam (Majority Sunni, some Shia, 0.1% Ahmadiyya (Ahmadis are not considered Muslims in Pakistani law)), 2.1% Hinduism, 1.3% Christian (split relatively evenly between Catholics and Protestants), Others 0.0% (2017)
- Ethnicities: Various local ethnic groups including Punjabis (44.7%), Pashtuns (18.2%), Sindhis (14.1%), Saraikis (8.4%), Muhajirs (7.6%), Balochs (3.6%) and Others (6.3%). (2022)
- Type of government: Federal Islamic parliamentary republic
- Freedom in the World 2023 score: 35/100 (Partly free)
Going into the election, Pakistan was led by a Caretaker Prime Minister, which is the norm after the National Assembly is dissolved pending elections. That figure is Anwaar ul Haq Kakar. Kakar, was appointed a Spokesperson for the Government of Balochistan in 2015, when he was a member of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League (Q) (PML-Q, Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam Group), “Quaid e Azam” means Great Leader, referring to Pakistan’s founding father). He served until 2017. In 2018 he left the party to help form the new Balochistan Awami Party (BAP, Balochistan People’s Party), a centre-left party in favour of Pakistani (rather than ethnic) nationalism. That year he was elected to the Senate of Pakistan (upper house), representing a general seat from Balochistan. He served until 2023 when he was appointed Caretaker Prime Minister. After this, he left the BAP to become an independent.
In 2018, the largest party was the populist, centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, Pakistan Movement for Justice). They won 31.8% of the vote and 116 general seats, as well as 28 female seats and five non-Muslim seats, for a total of 149. However, due to an Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) ruling that they had failed to conduct intra-party elections, their candidates must run as independents, not use the PTI’s electoral symbol, and are not eligible for the reserved female and minority seats. Though the PTI appealed to the Peshawar High Court, who ruled the ECP’s decision illegal and overturned it, the ECP then went to the Supreme Court, which sided with the ECP. Therefore, the decision stands. The PTI’s leader is Imran Khan. A famous cricketer, Khan entered politics in 1996 when he formed the PTI as its first Chairman. He was elected to the National Assembly for the first time in 2002, for the constituency of NA-71 (Mianwali-I). In 2005, he became the Chancellor of the University of Bradford, the ceremonial head of the university. In 2007, Khan resigned from the National Assembly to protest the presidential election that year. However, in 2013, he was elected for the constituency NA-56 (Rawalpindi-VII). In 2014, he was removed as Chancellor of the University as his political commitments made the role impossible. In 2018, the Assembly was dissolved, and he was re-elected to the constituency NA-95 (Mianwali-I). The PTI was the largest party, and formed a coalition, so Khan became Prime Minister. However, in 2022, he was removed in a vote of no-confidence. He was then disqualified from public office, including immediately losing his seat, for failing to disclose the details of gifts received in public office. Due to Khan’s legal issues, being jailed for a corruption probe, he stepped down as chairman in 2023, although is still considered the true leader of the party.
The second party to win seats in 2018 was the centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Nawaz being the name of its founder). It won 24.4% of the vote and 64 general seats, adding sixteen women’s seats and two non-Muslim seats for a total of 82 seats. It is led by Nawaz Sharif. Nawaz entered right-wing politics in opposition to the left-wing government, who nationalised his family business. As part of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League (PML), he joined provincial politics in Punjab, becoming provincial Minister for Finance. He became the state’s Chief Minister in 1985. In 1988, the PML became part of a right-wing alliance called the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI, Islamic Democratic Alliance). Nawaz stepped down as Chief Minister in 1990 to run in that year’s election, which the IJI won, making Nawaz Prime Minister. He got on poorly with the President, and eventually agreed to resign in 1993 if the President was removed as well. The PML had by this time already split into multiple factions, with Nawaz’s one being referred to as the PML-N. After the 1993 election, he became the President of the PML-N and Leader of the Opposition, serving until 1996, when the government fell. In 1997 elections, the PML-N won, and Nawaz became Prime Minister. However, in 1999, he was removed in a coup, and went into exile in Saudi Arabia, agreeing not to take part in politics (and thus giving up his role as PML-N President). This can be seen as the final death of the original PML, as the PML-N was the legal successor and kept a large amount of the membership, but it factionalised greatly and lost most of its support after this. Nawaz was allowed to return after a court order, and regained the PML-N Presidency in 2011. The PML-N won a plurality in 2013, and were able to convince enough independents to join to become a majority and make Sharif Prime Minister. However, he was disqualified from public office in 2017 for failing to disclose a second job. He then stepped down as PML-N President, but gained the role back a couple months later, stepping down for good in 2018. However, he has been allowed to return and is considered the true leader of the PML-N.
The third largest party in 2018 was the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). They won 13.0% of the vote and 43 general seats, as well as nine women’s and two minority seats, for a total of 54. They are led by Bilawai Bhutto Zardari. The son of a former Prime Minister and a former President, Bilawai was appointed PPP chair in 2007. In 2018 he was elected as MNA for the NA-200 (Larkana) constituency. In 2022, following the fall of the Khan government, he became Minister of Foreign Affairs in the new coalition government. He served both as MNA and Foreign Minister until 2023, when the Assembly was dissolved.
The Islamist and right-wing Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA, United Assembly of Action) won 4.9% of the vote and twelve general seats, as well as two female and one minority seat, for a total of fifteen. There has been a split in the alliance since 2018. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) (JUI-F, Assembly of Islamic Clerics (Fazl), Fazl is the name of its founder), a right-wing Islamist party who took eleven of the twelve seats in 2018, is the bulk of the remaining alliance. The party is led by Fazal-ur-Rehman. The son of a Chief Minister, Rehman succeeded his father as party President in 1980. In 1988 he was elected to the National Assembly for D.I. Khan, but lost re-election in 1990. He won the seat back in 1993, becoming the Chairman of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, until the 1996 dissolution and 1997 election, where he lost his seat. In 2002, as part of the MMA alliance, he was elected again for the constituency NA-24 (D.I. Khan). He became Leader of the Opposition in 2004, and served in both roles until the 2007 dissolution. In 2008, he lost his seat but was elected in another constituency, NA-26 (Bannu). He served as Member of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Chairman of the Parliamentary Special Committee on Kashmir in the 2008-13 term. After this, Parliament was dissolved, with the MMA alliance having broken up. In 2013, he won back the NA-24 (D.I. Khan) seat, and took that. He became Chairman of the Parliamentary Special Committee on Kashmir again. In 2018, the MMA alliance was revived, with Rehman as its President. He continued to serve as MNA and Special Committee Chairman until the dissolution, and he lost his seat that time. In 2020, he became President of the big tent Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a coalition of parties against Imran Khan, which existed until the 2023 dissolution. The split has ocurred with the Jamaat-e-Islami (Pakistan) (Islamic Party (Pakistan), or simply Jamaat), a different right-wing Islamist party, running separately. They took one seat in 2018 in the MMA coalition. The party is led by Siraj-ul-Haq. He was elected in 2002 to the Provincial Assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the PK-95 (Lower Dir) constituency, and became Senior Minister and Minister of Finance, serving in both roles until 2007, with his party boycotting the 2008 election. He won his seat and his ministry back in 2013. In 2014, he was named the Emir (leader, literally Chief) of Jamaat. He resigned as minister as his party forbids holding both offices at once. He continued to serve as an MPA until 2015, when he was elected as a Senator for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, serving until 2021.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan (MQM-P, United National Movement – Pakistan), a centre-left party based on the Mujahir ethnicity, won 1.4% of the vote in 2018, with six general seats and one women’s seat for a total of seven (no party not already listed won a minority seat). They are led by Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui, who entered student politics before being first elected as an MNA in 1990 for the NA-169 (Hyderabad-III) constituency, serving until 1993. He won the same seat in 1997, and was named Federal Minister for Industries and Production under Nawaz until 1998, and served as an MNA until the 1999 coup. In 2013, he was elected an MNA for NA-219 (Hyderabad-I). In 2018, he was elected MQM-P “Convenor”, with the party founded due to a split with the majority (in exile). In 2018 he took the seat NA-255 (Karachi Central-III). He was named Federal Minister for Information Technology and Communication in Imran Khan’s government in 2018, joining the PTI-led coalition, but stepped down in 2020 in a reshuffle.
The PML-Q also won 1.0% of the vote, with four seats and one women’s seat for a total of five. The party is led by Shujaat Hussain. The son of a prominent businessman, Hussain first entered politics in 1981, being elected for NA-105 (Gurjat-I) as part of the original PML. He was re-elected in 1985, and appointed Federal Minister for Industries and Production, in 1986 also becoming Federal Minister for Industries and Broadcasting, and in 1987 adding the portfolio of Defence Production. He served in all offices until 1988, where he was re-elected as part of the IJI, but did not get a government post as they were in opposition. In 1990 he was re-elected, and became Nawaz’s Minister of Interior. He stepped down as MNA and Minister in 1993, being elected to the Senate as part of the PML-N, representing Punjab. He was Chairman of the Senate Committees on Defence Production and Aviation. In 1997 he stepped down from the Senate as he got his National Assembly seat back, becoming Minister of Interior again. In 1998 he also added the position of Minister for Railways. He was removed from all roles, including MNA, in the 1999 coup. Those that supported the coup, like Hussain, left the PML-N in 2002. In 2003, Hussain joined the PML-Q as its Leader. He was also elected on that ticket as MNA in 2002. In 2004 he briefly served as Prime Minister while the actual candidate was still in the Senate and needed a National Assembly seat. He served as an MNA until 2007, and in 2009 joined the Senate again, serving until 2015.
Pakistan Muslim League (Q) leader Shujaat Hussain The BAP won 0.6% of the vote, getting four general seats and one women’s seat for a total of five. They are led by Khalid Hussain Magsi. He was involved in local politics before being elected MNA in a 2016 by-election for the NA-267 (Kachhi-cum-Jhal Magsi) seat, necessitated because the original election was declared void. In 2018 he moved constituency to NA-260 (Nasirabad-cum-Kachhi-cum-Jhal Magsi), serving until the 2023 dissolution.
Balcohistan Awami Party leader Khalid Hussain Magsi The left-wing and Baloch nationalist Balochistan National Party (Mengal) (BNP-M, Mengal being its founder) won 0.5% of the vote and three seats, plus a women’s seat for a total of four in 2018. They are led by Akhtar Mengal, who served as Chief Minister of Balochistan from 1997 to 1998. In 2018, he was elected as an MNA for NA-269 (Khudzar), serving until the 2023 dissolution.
The Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), a centrist big tent alliance against the PPP based on Sindh regionalism, won two general seats with 2.4% of the vote, plus a women’s seat for a total of three. It is led by the Pir of Pagaro VIII. President of the centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (F) (PML-F, the F stands for ‘Functional’) since 2012, succeeding his father, he led the PML-F into the GDA and became the bloc’s leader in 2017.
The Awami National Party (ANP, People’s National Party), is a centre-left Pashtun nationalist party, which won 1.5% of the vote and one general seat (all parties not mentioned so far only won general seats). It is led by Asfandyar Wali Khan, the son of a former leader, who entered student politics before joining the party and being elected President in 1999. He stepped down in 2002 after losing in the election that year, but regained the position in 2003.
The Awami Muslim League (Pakistan) (AML) won 0.2% of the vote and one seat. It is considered a moderate Islamist party. It is led by Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad. A longtime politician, Ahmad got his first post as Federal Minister of Culture and Federal Minister for Industries in 1991 by Nawaz, as part of the IJI. In 1993 the IJI broke up, and his PML-N were in opposition. However, in 1997 the PML-N won, and he received five Federal Minister portfolios: Labour and Manpower, Overseas Pakistanis, Youth Affairs, Tourism, and Culture. In 1998, he lost the Youth Affairs, Tourism, and Culture positions, keeping the other two, which he lost in the 1999 coup. As the PML-N did not give him a space in the 2002 election, he joined the PML-Q and was elected for NA-55 (Rawalpindi-VI). He was named Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting until the government fell in 2004. He was immediately reappointed by Shujaat Hussain, and then the government that succeeded him later in 2004, until 2006 when he was reshuffled into the position of Minister of Railways. This lasted until 2007, when the government and Assembly was dissolved. He lost the election to the PML-N, and left the PML-Q, forming the AML in 2008 as its first President. In 2013, he won his seat back, and in 2018 won the seat of NA-62 (Rawalpindi-VI). He was named Minister of Railways by Imran Khan, and reshuffled in 2020 to Minister of Interior, serving until Khan was removed in 2022. He continued to be an MNA until the 2023 dissolution.
Finally, the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP, Republican National Party), a Baloch nationalist party, won one general seat with 0.0% of the vote. They are led by Shahzain Bugti since 2015, succeeding his father as party Leader. From 2018 to 2023, he served as the party’s MNA for NA-259 (Dera Bugti-cum-Kohlu-cum-Barkhan-cum-Sibbi-cum-Lehri).
Not every party running won seats in 2018. The Pashtun nationalist Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (Pashtunkhwa Democratic People’s Party) won 0.3% of the vote but missed out last time.
Logo of the PKMAP, who failed to win a seat in 2018 The centre-left and Baloch nationalist National Party (NP) is running this time. It won no seats and 0.1% of the vote in 2018.
Logo of the National Party who hoped to return to the National Assembly An Islamic centrist party, the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM, Muslim Unity Assembly) won 0.0% and no seats in 2018. They are led by Raja Nassir Abbas Jafri, a party activist, since 2022.
Another party running this time is the Pakistan Muslim League (Z), a right-wing party (PML-Z, the Z stands for Zia, being a former President of Pakistan). They got 0.0% of the vote and no seats in 2018. They are led by Ijaz-ul-Haq, son of President Zia, who as a member of the IJI was named Minister for Labour, Manpower, and Overseas Pakistanis in 1990 after he was elected to the National Assembly as member for NA-39 Rawalpindi-IV. In 1993, he was re-elected for the PML-N but lost his ministry as the PPP defeated his party. He continued to serve until the 1999 coup, but when democratic politics returned in 2002 formed the PML-Z, which was part of the PML-Q. In 2002, he was elected back to parliament for the NA-191 (Bahawalnagar-IV) constituency, and served as Minister for Religious Affairs and Minister for Minorities from 2004. After the 2007 parliament was dissolved, he also gave up his ministries to a caretaker government, and lost his seat to the PPP. In 2010, the PML-Z decoupled itself from the PML-Q and he became the party’s president. He won the NA-191 seat back in 2013, but lost it to the PML-N in 2018.
In 2018, thirteen general seats were won by independents, while two constituencies were postponed.
The PTI became the largest party in the 2018 elections, and was able to form a coalition government. However, the opposition PDM alliance submitted a motion of no confidence in 2022. Khan claimed that a US diplomatic cypher demanded his removal, later media leaks claim that the words “all would be forgiven” were used. This was because Khan was considered neutral, or even friendly to Russia, regarding that country’s conflict with Ukraine, while the US supports Ukraine. Khan advised the President to dissolve the National Assembly, with the Deputy Speaker dismissing the no-confidence motion. However, the Supreme Court rejected the motion’s dismissal, and it went ahead, and succeeded, removing Khan. Khan continues to maintain that the United States was responsible, and large protests began. Meanwhile, a PDM government was formed including the PML-N, PPP, and JUI-F. PTI members boycotted and then resigned en masse. The PDM government also had to deal with global and domestic economic problems such as inflation. The PTI did well in by-elections caused by the resignations, and had big support in protests. In one, he was injured in an assassination attempt. The government tried to file charges against him, and though his supporters made that impossible at first, he was finally nabbed in 2023. This led to riots, and a crackdown on not just violent protestors but the PTI in general, leading to some being incarcerated, including Khan, and some saving their skin by leaving the party. The PTI tried to force early elections by dissolving provincial assemblies, but this did not happen despite a Supreme Court order and was delayed further by a census. With his brother as Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif obtained protective bail after being a fugitive in the United Kingdom for years, and could return to politics. The PTI ban was massively controversial and was considered politically motivated, not just by PTI supporters. Khan was jailed for ten years for leaking state secrets, and then another fourteen years in a case regarding gifts received as Prime Minister. He also got a seven-year term for an un-Islamic marriage. These convictions have all been considered politically motivated by the PTI. Accusations of gerrymandering against the party, suppression and even election rigging have all been waged. PTI websites have been blocked and journalists have been restricted in how they can cover the party.
Opinion polls showed that the PTI is popular, although other parties to have support as well. There has been a level of violence, with one PTI “independent” killed by ISIS-K terrorists, and other supporters dying in attacks. This was motivation for the interior ministry to suspend mobile access on election day, although some including the PPP have opposed this, calling it voter suppression.
Foreign observers were present, but journalists needed accrediation (which was normally given). The Commonwealth delegation praised the electoral commission for their conduct.
The largest party in the parliament was the Pakistan Muslim League (N), who won 23.6% of the vote. This led to 75 seats, plus 34 seats for women and five for minorities for a total of 114. Independents backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf won the most votes, with 31.2%. This led to 93 seats, and they were not eligible for additional seats. The Pakistan People’s Party won 13.9% of the vote for 54 seats, plus sixteen for women and three for minorities, for a total of 73. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan won 1.9% of the vote and seventeen seats, plus four for women and one for minorities, for a total of 21. The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) won 3.7% and four seats, plus four for women and the last minority seat for a total of nine. The next party was a new party formed for this election: the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (Pakistan Stability Party, IPP), a centrist party, which won three seats on 1.1% of the vote, plus a seat for women for a total of four.
Logo of the new Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party, which split from the PTI in 2023 The Pakistan Muslim League (Q) took 0.6% of the vote and three seats, plus the last women’s seat for a total of four. The Balochistan National Party (Mengal) won two seats from 0.3%. The next party was another new party for this election, the Pashtunkhwa National Awami Party (PKNAP, Awami means People’s), a Pashtun nationalist party, which won one seat from 0.3%.
Logo of the Pashtunkhwa National Awami Party, who split from the PKMAP in 2022 The Pakistan Muslim League (Z) won 0.2% and one seat, while the Balochistan Awami Party won 0.2% and one seat as well. The National Party won 0.1% and one seat, and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party also won 0.1% and one seat. The Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen won 0.1% and one seat. The remaining eight seats were won by (non-PTI-endorsed) independents, who took eight from a total of 11.1% of the vote. Parties to miss out varied on vote share but none crossed 5%. One seat remained vacant because the PTI-backed candidate was assassinated.
Polling suggested that the PTI’s greatest areas of support were the youth and educated voters, while the PML-N and PPP did better amongst the less-educate.
The results were delayed sparking controversy, and as initial reports stated that the PTI were doing better than the final results showed, this allowed the PTI to claim there was manipulation and launch legal challenges against the electoral commission. A commissioner for an area where the PML-N did well resigned admitting fraud, and implicated the Chief Justice and electoral commission head. After the admission, Twitter was blocked in Pakistan, something the government at first denied but later admitted. A few days later, the officer involved retracted the admission, stating that the PTI had offered him a good position in exchange for it. The PTI was also accused of misinformation regarding alleged rigging. Protests were organised by the PTI, while figures from the JUI-F among others also criticised the result.
As Jamaat-e-Islami won no seats, Siraj-ul-Haq stepped down as party Emir. Khan ruled out a coalition with either the PML-N or PPP, while the PML-N proposed a coalition with the PPP. Some PTI independents later joined the PML-N, leading to accusations of bribery. A coalition was then announced between the PML-N, PPP, MQM-P, BAP, and IPP, but it later emerged that the PPP would not join after all, instead providing external support. However, the final agreement had the PML-N supporting a PPP presidential candidate, with Shehbaz Sharif as Prime Minister from the PML-N. Shehbaz was a longtime lawmaker in Punjab, and became the province’s Chief Minister in the 1997 election, until politics was suspended in the 1999 coup. He returned as Chief Minister in the 2008 election. He was removed as Chief Minister in 2009 by a court for being ineligible, but this was overturned a month later. Also in 2009, he became PML-N President, a position in which he served until 2011. He gave up his position as Chief Minister to a caretaker government in 2013 but was re-elected so got his position back. He was elected PML-N President again in 2018. He gave his CM position to a caretaker again in 2018, and this time ran for the National Assembly, winning the NA-132 (Lahore-X) seat. He became Leader of the Opposition to Imran Khan until the latter’s removal in 2022, when Shehbaz formed a coalition and became Prime Minister. In 2023 he gave the premiership to the caretaker government of Anwaar ul Haq Kakar, and parliament was also dissolved. The PTI then joined a minor party in order to try and win the proportional seats, and the PTI President also delayed convening the Assembly until this happened, but the electoral commission refused.
Pakistan’s government, such as Kakar and the Foreign Ministry celebrated the election, but PTI figures were critical. The Pakistan Stock Exchange fell due to the uncertainty, and journalists including those from Dawn and The Express Tribune, as well as the Human Rights Commission criticised the vote. The international media also criticised the election. The general picture painted by Western outlets such as the New York Times, the Washington Post, Time, The Intercept, the New York Post, Foreign Policy (all US), The Guardian, the Financial Times, the BBC, the Economist (all UK) France 24 (France), the CBC (Canada) and those in the region such as the Dhaka Tribune (Bangladesh), The Wire, Firstpost, The Times of India, The Indian Express, and the Deccan Herald (all India), as well as Al Jazeera (Qatar) was that the military establishment tried to put their thumb on the scale and did to help the PML-N, but were humiliated by a massive surge of the young for Imran Khan which they could not fully contain.
Critical statements were written by Australia, the EU, the UK, and the US, and though the US pledged to work with the new government, the election was much-criticised by lawmakers.
Analysis
Pakistan’s relationship with democracy is complicated. It is not a pure dictatorship, where the leader is an untouchable hero who criticising is illegal. But many do not have faith in democracy, and there is always the risk of a tap on the shoulder from the “Establishment”: the military and its supporters who have interfered throughout the country’s history. Pakistan was part of the British Raj (British rule), where an independence movement was growing. However, in the Muslim parts of the Raj, there was a Pakistan Movement, led by Muhammad Ali Jinnah of the All-India Muslim League, who wanted a separate Muslim state. Thus, in 1947, the Raj was split up into two independent countries, with India being flanked on both west and east by the new Dominion of Pakistan.
Muhammad Ali Jinnah, founding father of Pakistan Before elections were held, Jinnah became Governor-General, representative of the King of Pakistan, George VI, who was based in London, also being King of the UK and a number of other countries. The AIML reorganised itself in the new country as the Muslim League, and Jinnah nominated the party’s Liaquat Ali Khan as Prime Minister. He had been an experienced politician in colonial times, but in 1951, he was assassinated by a professional assassin, for reasons still not completely clear today. He was replaced by the Governor-General Khawaja Nazimuddin. Under Nazimuddin, some of the country’s problems became clear. In the exclave of East Pakistan, demands to make Bengali (spoken there) an equal language to Urdu, speaken in the rest of Pakistan, were growing, but the western establishment was not in favour of this. Islamist riots in the west and Bengali ones in the east led to Nazimuddin being dismissed by the governor-general in 1953, and replaced by Ambassador to the United States Mohammad Ali Bogra. In 1955, a new Governor-General, Iskander Mirza, was appointed due to ill health of the incumbent on a temporary measure. However, he used his powers to replace Bogra and appoint himself permanently. Finance Minister Chaudhury Muhammad Ali was appointed. Under Muhammad Ali, Pakistan passed a constitution, and the country became an Islamic republic, removing the monarchy. In a coalition government, the PML ended up removing him as he made too many concessions to other parties in 1956.
Chaudhry Mohammad Ali, last PM of the Dominion of Pakistan, first PM of the republic Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy was appointed, from the East Pakistan-based Awami League (People’s League). He formed a coalition but was removed by Mirza (now President) in 1957. The Muslim League’s former Law and Justice Minister, I. I. Chundrigar (Ibrahim Ismail Chundrigar) replaced him, but his plan to reform the electoral college, which chooses the President, was opposed by most of his coalition partners and he was removed. The liberal Republican Party got its first Prime Minister in Foreign Affairs Minister Feroz Khan Noon. Mirza however was tiring of Pakistan’s democratic system, before the parliament had even been democratically elected. He did not trust people to make decisions in a country with a 15% literacy rate. The parties were also planning to remove him in upcoming presidential elections. Therefore, he declared martial law, abrogating the constitution (and also dismissing Noon). However, this gave the military huge power under Chief Martial Law Administrator Muhammad Ayub Khan. Mirza quickly realised his mistake and tried to undo it, making Khan an interim Prime Minister before elections. Weeks after the declaration of martial law, Khan dispatched the military entering the presidential palace and placing Mirza on a plane to be exiled to the UK. After this, Khan became President. An electoral college was elected which declared confidence in Khan in 1960 with 96.4% support. A new constitution was promulgated in 1962, and there was a presidential election in 1965.
After being made Chief Martial Law Administrator by Iskandar Ali Mirza, Muhammad Ayub Khan removed Mirza in a coup and became President This election was still indirect, chosen by eighty thousand “Basic Democrats”, who were local government representatives. The Muslim League had split into two, with those supporting Khan becoming the Convention Muslim League (CML), whose banner Khan ran under. Those opposed became the Council Muslim League, and they co-operated with other parties to become the Combined Opposition Parties (COP). This was a disaparate coalition but they found a unifying candidate in Jinnah’s sister Fatima Jinnah. Even with the indirect system and the thumb on the scale, Khan still won only 62.4%. Khan’s population continued to fall and the opposition was more emboldened. In West Pakistan, protests were growing over the economic and political situation, but it was in East Pakistan where events would make Khan lose even the military’s support. When British India was divided, Pakistan was split into two exclaves separated by India, which Pakistan had been partitioned from. During the Bogra administration, these were formally declared West Pakistan and East Pakistan. East Pakistan, though sharing the Muslim faith with the rest of Pakistan, was different ethnically, consisting of Bengalis. The region was mostly represented through the Awami League (People’s League), and as time went on they felt more and more detatched from the West Pakistan-based military and political elite, who they felt discriminated against by. Despite a larger population in East Pakistan, spending was higher in West Pakistan. Rioting and an uprising meant the police struggled to keep control, and Khan requested that Commander-in-Chief of the Army Yahya Khan declare martial law and take control, which he did (Ayub Khan was seldom heard from again until his death). Yahya Khan declared that elections would take place in 1970, and followed through with this promise. The Awami League swept East Pakistan, winning a majority,without a single seat in West Pakistan. Meanwhile, West Pakistan was won by a force that had its beginnings in the West Pakistan anti-Ayub movement, the Pakistan People’s Party. The West Pakistan elite now felt that the Awami League may pass a new constitution for the whole of Pakistan. No other party won more than a few seats. However, neither Khan nor the PPP wanted the new house to sit, and so Khan refused to allow it to. The Awami League wanted a federation, with strong powers on nearly every issue given to the two regional units. The PPP refused to sit unless the Awami League changed this. Therefore, huge protests broke out in East Pakistan. The government responded with Operation Searchlight, a military campaign of mass killing. Thi succeeded in stopping the protests only because the protesters took up arms instead. They declared independence as Bangladesh, fought the Bangladesh Liberation War with Indian help, and won. Pakistan surrendered, and East Pakistan was no more, with Bangladesh hereafter an independent state.
Yahya Khan took power in 1969, pledged elections in 1970, but then led a campaign of terror when the Awami League won In West Pakistan, which was now the entirety of Pakistan, huge anger broke out in 1971 against Khan, with protests leading to his downfall. He handed over the presidency to the PPP leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. In 1973, the current Constitution was promulgated, the country also received its current name, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The country became a parliamentary state, and Bhutto, a socialist, became Prime Minister. Elections were held in 1977, when the PPP defeated the Pakistan National Alliance (PNA), a broad coalition of parties opposed to Bhutto. However, the PNA accused the PPP of rigging the election, and unrest broke out. Soon, Chief of the Army Staff Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq took power in a coup. Zia again became Chief Martial Law Administrator, with the office of PM suspended. In 1978, Zia also formally became President. However, no semblance of constitutionality would return with martial law until 1984. He Islamised the hitherto pretty secular Pakistan, something that has still made its mark on the country today, and a referendum approving this was held that year with 98.5% support. This also extended his term five years. However, martial law did end in 1985 and elections were held for parliament. These were non-partisan (all candidates were independents), a stipulation which led to an opposition boycott. Muhammad Junejo, a member of the PML who had served as a minister under Ayub Khan was appointed Prime Minister by Zia. However, Junejo was not a mere puppet and this led to conflict between the two. A disaster in a military storage containment led to Junejo calling for a parliamentary enquiry, after which Zia dismissed Junejo in 1988, calling for new elections.
Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq would take power in a 1977 coup and lead Pakistan for the rest of his life Before the elections could even be held, Zia died in a plane crash. Elections were still held, and the PPP were the largest party. Bhutto had been executed by Zia in 1977, but his daughter Benazir Bhutto was now PPP leader. The opposition was the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad, a right-wing alliance led by the PML. The PPP formed government and the younger Bhutto became Prime Minster. Meanwhile, Zia was replaced as President by the longtime politician and Acting President (as Senate Chairman) Ghulam Ishaq Khan after an agreement between the PPP and IJI. Bhutto squabbled with coalition partners and President Khan, and things got worse when strikes broke out against her. In 1990, Khan used presidential powers to dismiss her and call for new elections. This time, the IJI defeated the PPP-led People’s Democratic Alliance (PDA). However, it is generally agreed these elections were rigged, indeed Pakistan’s own courts ruled so in 2012. The PML/IJI Chief Minister of Punjab Nawaz Sharif now became Prime Minister. Nawaz knew what had happened to Bhutto, and tried to strip the presidential power to dismiss the Prime Minister in 1993. Khan then tried to dismiss Nawaz, but the Supreme Court ruled against this, stating those powers were only extant if justified properly by a constitutional breakdown. However, this itself was causing constitutional issues, and the army brokered a deal that both Nawaz and Khan resign. By now, the factions of the PML led by Nawaz and Junejo had split into separate parties, with Nawaz leading the Pakistan Muslim League (N). However, the PML-N were defeated by the PPP in the 1993 election. Bhutto led a minority government. Bhutto had much better relations with the military in her second term. However, her brother Murtaza Bhutto had taken a different path ever since the 1977 coup. Forming a left-wing terrorist group called al-Zulfikar (named after his father), but returned to Pakistan in 1993 after Benazir Bhutto took power. Arrested for terrorism by his sister’s government and released on bail, he became a big critic of both Benazir Bhutto and her influential husband Asif Ali Zardari. In an encounter that is still somewhat unclear as to why it happened, in 1996, the police shot Murtaza Bhutto dead. Many in Pakistan believe Zardari was behind it, but the exact reasons why are still unknown. Among those to suspect involvement from Benazir Bhutto and Zardari were the President, Farooq Leghari, chosen as a close ally of Bhutto, who surprisingly dismissed her for corruption, incompetence, and the Murtaza Bhutto incident. Elections were held again in 1997.
Benazir Bhutto was Prime Minister from 1988 to 1990 and 1993 to 1996, but both terms ended with her dismissed by the President Elections were held again in 1997, where the PML-N won a landslide and Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister again. The PPP were barely above the minor parties. Nawaz was broadly popular amongst the military, but relations with them worsened throughout his term. In 1998, Pakistan invited the Indian Prime Minister into Pakistan for the Lahore summit, a very popular diplomatic initiative to try and repair the troubled relations between the two countries. Pakistan’s military did not support this, and in 1999 travelled beyond a ceasefire line into disputed territory administered by India, beginning the Kargil War, under the orders of army chief Pervez Musharraf. After tension continued, Nawaz (who had appointed him in the first place) dismissed Musharraf. After a military coup, Musharraf declared a state of emergency (but not martial law), suspending the constitution which also meant the removal of Nawaz. Musharraf was Chief Executive, and reduced the power of the president, making Pakistan a fully parliamentary country. In 2001, Musharraf made himself President, and in 2002 extended his own term by five years in a referendum boycotted by opposition with 98.0% support. Elections would be held in 2002, with the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) being formed to support Pervez Musharraf from former PML-N supporters. The PPP had restrictions so used the name Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP). Musharraf was a liberal, advocating for a form of Islam known as ‘enlightened moderation’, something which was opposed by Islamists who organised into the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal. At the election, the PML-Q became the biggest party, but the PPPP won the most votes. The MMA came third, with the PML-N falling to minor status. The PML-Q’s Zafarullah Khan Jamali formed a coalition also including PPPP and MMA figures. In 2004, Musharraf had a confidence vote held in him by an electoral college 658-1, which extended his term to 2007. However, Jamali fell out with Musharraf in 2004, and therefore the PML-Q withdrew confidence. He was temporarily replaced by Shujaat Hussain because the preferred candidate, Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz, was a Senator and thus ineligible. A free seat in the lower house was found and he was made Prime Minister a couple months later. He served as Prime Minister until 2007, when a caretaker government was installed for the 2008 election. Before the dissolution, Musharraf was re-elected President with no proper opposition.
Pervez Musharraf was the latest Pakistan military officer to conduct a coup, in 1999. He then served as President in 2008 Musharraf declared a state of emergency after this, which delayed the election. This was because the court was in the process of conducting a case over whether Musharraf was eligible, and before they reached a decision, the emergency was declared, keeping him in power. He then dismissed the judges who stated that the emergency was illegal. After the state of emergency was lifted, another twist ocurred when Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the PPP, was assassinated in a rally, probably by Islamist groups such as al-Qaeda or the Pakistani Taliban. This delayed the election further, but it was eventually held. The PPP defeated both the PML-N and PML-Q, and the MMA was reduced to minor status. Yusuf Raza Gilani, a veteran PPP politician, became Prime Minister in a coalition initially between the PPP and PML-N. They had no desire to work with Musharraf, and tried to impeach him. Musharraf resigned before they could, and went into exile in the UK. The PML-N later left the coalition led by the leftist PPP. In 2012, Gilani was convicted and symbolically sentenced to thirty seconds in custody over contempt of court. The Speaker decided not to remove him, but this was overturned by the Supreme Court. He was replaced by former Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervaiz Ashraf until 2013, when elections were held. This time, the PML-N won a big majority as the PPP made huge losses and the PML-Q won just two seats. Once again, Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister. Nawaz was removed in 2017 due to failing to declare a UAE-based employment, and lated sentence to prison. He managed to escape to the UK on medical grounds. Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahid Khaqan Abbasi finished the term with elections in 2018.
Nawaz Sharif won the 2013 elections but was removed after being implicated in the Panama Papers in 2017 The 2018 election saw the victory of a force that had been bubbling, but had now emerged as a major party. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf was founded by Imran Khan, a legendary cricketer in a country where the sport is a religion: he captained them to their only World Cup in 1992. Thus, he had huge celebrity and charismatic authority, which he centred his new party around. In 2002, Khan won the PTI’s only seat. They boycotted the 2008 election in opposition to Pervez Musharraf, but returned in 2013, coming third. They ran a populist campaign based on big losses for the PML-N and the PPP’s inability to gain many seats. Without a majority, Khan became PM in tandem with some minor parties. As Khan’s administration went on, in 2020 the opposition, including the PML-N and PPP formed the Pakistan Democratic Movement to unify the opposition against him. In 2022, things started to move into gear. This was the year that Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Khan adopted a neutral stance, and was even in Russia on a state visit when the invasion was launched. There are several versions of what happened next. The US was unhappy with Khan, and noted to the ambassador that this move would isolate Pakistan from the West and Europe, however they also stated that as this policy was mostly linked with Khan, a change in prime minister would mean they would turn a blind eye. Khan reveaed this memo weeks later, waving a document from his pocket. At the same time, the PDM was moving against him, and launched a motion of no confidence. The Deputy Speaker, the PTI’s Qasim Suri, dismissed this stating that a foreign country’s role made the motion illegal. Soon after, he advised the President, Arif Alvi (also of PTI) to dissolve the National Assembly for new elections. The Supreme Court ruled this unconstitutional, and allowed for a no-confidence vote. This was held and Khan was out. The PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif (who was still in exile in the UK), former Chief Minister of Punjab and at the time Leader of the Opposition became PM in a PDM government. Imran Khan only stepped up his anti-US rhetoric in that, but the new government would move against him. The PDM brought proceedings against him for failing to declare gifts he received as Prime Minister; Khan admitted selling this and he was banned from politics. The case ended in January 2024, a week before the election, when he was sentenced to fourteen years in prison and a fine of Rs. 1.5bn. At the same time, proceedings against Khan came for revealing the diplomatic cypher from the US. The day before his fourteen year sentence for the gifts case, he recieved a ten year sentence for revealing state secrets, and three days after the gift case another seven years and a fine of Rs. 500,000 for an un-Islamic marriage. He has appealed the convictions. All this has led to his supporters: mostly the young, middle-class and urbane, believing there to be a conspiracy against him from both the US and the old military establishment, which has done away with leaders it didn’t like before.
Imran Khan’s revelation of state secrets put him in jail, but his supporters think he is being persecuted for fighting an American conspiracy against him This has hurt trust in Pakistan’s institutions. The electoral commission, courts, and so on, cannot function without any decision against Khan or the PTI leading to accusations of bias, fraud, rigging, or some sort of higher power’s malign control. That said, the three convictions for Khan a week before the election, and the fact that Nawaz Sharif was acquitted in 2023, does mean that decisions seem to be going against the PTI regularly. The decision that the PTI were banned from the election for failing to conduct “intra-party elections” was also significant. They could run only as independents, without the famous cricket bat symbol associated with Khan (in South Asia, the use of symbols associated with parties is common on ballot papers because of illiterate voters). This would have hurt the PTI more if it wasn’t for the fact that their electorate is generally tech-savvy, and websites emerged to tell voters who their local PTI independent was, although these seemed to have suspiciously frequent outages, as did the PTI website. In Pakistan, sixty seats are reserved for women, and ten for religious minorities, that are chosen proportionally based on party. As the PTI was banned from running as a party, only independent individuals, they would not be eligible to win these seats: representing 22.6% of total seats in the National Assembly. After a delay to the results, the PTI claimed fraud. That said, the election was seen as a positive step for that party. They won the highest vote share (31.2%), and the most general seats. They claim they would have won more votes had the election not been rigged against them. Khan claimed that the coalition was a “daylight robbery”, and the PTI won a two-thirds supermajority, something which has been parroted by his supporters but also questioned: he is not the first leader to dispute the results of elections. Despite all the complaints, Shehbaz Sharif was able to resume power. The PML-N and PPP renewed their agreement, with the PPP in confidence and supply and the PML-N leading a coalition with smaller parties. The agreement was that Shehbaz Sharif would be PM with PPP support, and Asif Ali Zardari become President with PML-N support. This government is on shaky ground and its legitimacy has been questioned, but for now, they rule Pakistan.
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Sardinia: Todde scores rare victory for the centre-left
On 25 February, the Italian region of Sardinia held elections, which were won by Alessandra Todde and the centre-left coalition.
The facts
The Regional Council of Sardinia has sixty seats in total, elected for a five-year term. Each coalition will have a presidential candidate, with the top candidate becoming President of Sardinia and getting a seat, and the runner-up also getting a seat. The remaining seats go to the coalition lists. If the president-elect won more than 25% of the vote, they are guaranteed a majority for their coalition (at least 55%, or at least 60% if they received more than 40%). There is an electoral threshold of 10% for coalitions and 5% of individiual lists. The seats are then given proportionally within coalitions with this in mind.
Sardinia factfile:
- Population: 1.6 million (2020)
- Religions: No precise data, but Sardinia is mostly Christian (Roman Catholic majority, some others), with minorities including the non-religious and Muslims
- Ethnicities: No precise data, but majority are Sardinian. Others include mainland Italians, other Europeans (including Romanians, Ukrainians, and Germans), Black Africans (including Senegalese and Nigerians), Arabs (including Moroccans), Asians (including Chinese, Filipinos, and Bangladeshis)
- Type of government: Autonomous regional council in a unitary parliamentary republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: N/A, Italy score: 90/100 (Free)
The elected president in 2019 was Christian Solinas, from the right-wing and Sardinian regionalist Sardinian Action Party (PSd’Az). He was elected to Italy’s Senate of the Republic for Sardinia in 2018, before being elected President of Sardinia in 2019. Representing the right-wing Centre-right coalition (no logo), he won 47.8% of the vote. On the party lists, the centre-right coalition got 51.9% of the vote and 35 seats (plus Solinas’ for a total of 36). The top party was the right-wing populist Lega (League), who won 11.4% of the vote and eight seats. Their Sardinian branch is called the Lega Sardegna (Sardinia League, LS) and also have a right-wing populist and regionalist agenda. The PSd’Az won 9.9% of the vote and seven seats (plus Solinas’ for a total of eight). The centre-right Forza Italia (FI) took 8.0% and five seats. Another centre-right party, the regionalist Sardinian Reformers (RS) won 5.1% and four seats. The right-wing populist and nationalist conservative Brothers of Italy (FdI) took 4.7% and three seats. Another regionalist centre-right party, Sardinia 20Twenty (S20V) won 4.1% and three seats. This time, they are running on a joint list called Sardinia in the Centre 2020 with a coalition between the new centre-right Italy in the Centre (IaC) and another new centre-right party, Us Moderates (NM), among others. The centre-right conservative Union of the Centre (UdC) won 3.8% and three seats, while the regionalist centre-right Civic Sardinia won 1.6% and one seat; however, that party no longer exists. Finally, a regionalist centrist party called Fortza Paris (Foward Together) won 1.6% and one seat, but has now changed coalition. Two other parties that no longer exist failed to win a seat in the coalition. Solinas was deselected as the centre-right candidate, in favour of the FdI’s Paolo Truzzu, who was a member of the Regional Council from 2014 to 2019 and Mayor of Cagliari since 2019. Solinas was supported by the PSd’Az and Lega, but not the FdI. The majority of coalition members supported Truzzu, leading to the potential for a split in the coalition and a rival bid, but when corruption investigations beset Solinas and some concessions were made to the Lega, the latter pledged support for Truzzu and the PSd’Az did the same this time around with Solinas withdrawing. The parties in the centre-right coalition this time were: the LS, the PSd’Az, FI, the RS, FdI, the Sardinian in the Centre 2020 coalition which includes the IaC/NM alliance and S20V, the UDC, a joint list between the new liberal regionalist Sardinia Alliance (AS) and the liberal Italian Liberal Party (PLI), and the new centre-right Christian Democracy with Rotondi (DCR).
The runners-up in 2019 were the centre-left Centre-left coalition (no logo). Their presidential candidate got 32.9% of the vote, and on the party vote they got 30.1% of the vote for seventeen seats (plus the one for the presidential candidate for a total of eighteen). The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) won 13.5% of the vote and eight seats, with the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) winning 3.8% and two seats. However, LeU no longer exists. The progressive and regionalist Progressive Party won 3.2% and two seats (plus the presidential candidate’s for a total of three). This time, they are running in a joint list with another left-wing regional party called The Base. A regionalist list called We, Sardinia won 2.8% and two seats, while a similar list called Common Future won 2.6% and two seats, but neither is running this time. The final seat was won by the green progressive Italia in Comune (Italy in Common, IiC), who are not running this time. A joint list between the centrist and regionalist Christian Popular Union (UPC) and the centre-left Italian Socialist Party (PSI) won 1.3% and no seats, and this time the PSI will on a list with the regionalist liberal Sardinians in Europe (SiE). Another smaller party won 0.4%. This time, the candidate is Alessandra Todde from the populist Five Star Movement (M5S). Todde was Undersecretary of State of Economic Development from 2019 to 2021, when she became Deputy Minister of Economic Development. Later in 2021, she became Vice President of the M5S. She was elected to the Chamber of Deputies (national lower house) for Lombardy at the 2022 election, where the M5S was out of government and so she lost her ministry. In 2023, she stepped down as M5S Vice President. The M5S ran their own candidate who got 11.2% in 2019, and they got 9.7% of the vote and six seats as well on the list. The centre-left coalition this time consists of the PD, the M5S, whose list also includes the nationalist A Innantis! (AI!, Forward!) and the liberal, pro-LGBT Gay Party, the joint coalition between the Progressives and The Base, Fortza Paris (who moved from the centre-right coalition), a joint list between the PSI and SiE, and a number of parties that did not run last time: these being the Christian centre-left Solidary Democracy (DemoS), who also include the regionalist Sardinia 2050 (S2050) on their list, the left-wing Future Left (SF), which also includes the left-wing Horizon Left (OS), the left-wing Greens and Left Alliance (AVS), which includes the green leftist Green Europe (EV), the left-wing Italian Left (SI), the progressive Possible and the left-wing Sardinia Left (SS). Also included is the regionalist Shared Horizon (OC) and a regionalist civic list entitled United Civic List for Todde President.
Two newcomers entered the scene for this race. One was the (mostly) centrist Sardinian Coalition, led by Renato Soru. Soru is from the Sardinia Project (PS), a centre-left regionalist party, and was a businessman before he was elected under that banner in 2004 as President of Sardinia. In 2007, the PS was merged into the PD, but he lost re-election to the centre-right coalition in 2009. After that, he returned from 2014 to 2019 as Member of the European Parliament for Italian Islands, but left politics after that. He has now revived the PS to contest this election. There are a total of five lists, including the PS, under the coalition, but none ran in 2019.
The other party (the only non-coalition) is the Sardinian nationalist Sardigna R-Esiste alliance (Sardinia Resist, or Sardinia R-Exist), which also includes the centre-left Sardinian nationalist Red Moors. Their presidential candidate is Lucia Chessa, an important figure in Red Moors.
Three debates were held: the first two hosted by Italian public television station Rai 3 and the local Catholic dicoese including all four candidates, and the third from the agriculture association Coldiretti only including Truzzu, Todde, and Soru. Polling showed a close race with Truzzu in front of Todde, with Soru in a respectable third over the threshold, and Chessa nowhere. Solinas’ approval ratings were slightly negative although varied wildly depending on the poll. In terms of individual parties, FdI were to become the main party of the centre-right, and the biggest overall, with no other centre-right party on double digits; the Lega, PSd’Az, and FI would be the largest other parties. On the centre-left, the PD and M5S would be the major parties, while the Sardinian Coalition would fight hard to reach 10%, and Sardigna R-Esiste would find it difficult.
The final result showed a victory for Alessandra Todde of the centre-left coalition, with 334,160 votes (45.4%), with Todde becoming President. In the list vote, the centre-left won 293,288 votes (42.5%) for 35 seats (plus Todde’s for a total of 36). The breakdown was 95,285 (13.8%) and eleven seats for the Democratic Party 53,613 (7.8%) and six seats for the Five Star Movement (plus Todde’s for a total of seven), 32,145 (4.7%) and four seats for the Greens and Left Alliance, 27,422 (4.0%) and three seats for the United Civic List for Todde President, 20,984 (3.0%) and three seats for Shared Horizon, 20,868 (3.0%) for the Progressive Party, 20,574 (3.0%) and three seats for the Future Left, 11,637 (1.7%) and one seat for the Italian Socialist Party/Sardinians in Europe joint list, 6,068 (0.9%) and no seats for Fortza Paris, and 4,692 (0.7%) for Solidary Democracy. Paolo Truzzu was the runner-up with 331,099 votes (45.0%) and he becomes opposition leader. In total, the centre-right coalition got 333,873 votes (48.4%) and 23 seats for the list (plus Truzzu’s for a total of 24). The top party in the coalition was Brothers of Italy with 93,921 (13.6%) and seven seats (plus Truzzu’s for a total of eight), while in second was Sardinian Reformers with 49,629 (7.2%) and three seats. Forza Italia got 43,892 (6.4%) and three seats, Sardinia in the Centre 2020 37,950 (5.5%) and three seats, the Sardinian Action Party 37,341 (5.4%) and three seats, the joint Sardinia Alliance/Italian Liberal Party list 28,203 (4.1%) and two seats, the Lega Sardegna 25,957 (3.8%) and two seats, the Union of the Centre 19,237 (2.8%) and one seat, and Christian Democracy with Rotondi 2,110 (0.3%) and no seats. Renato Soru got 63,666 (8.7%), and the Sardinia Coalition got a combined 54,569 (7.9%), missing out on the threshold. Lucia Chessa got 7,261 (1.0%), and Sardigna R-Esiste got 4,067 (0.6%), also missing out. Turnout was 52.4%, down 1.4%: highest in Nuoro (56.4%) and lowest in Medio Campidano (48.0%)
Analysis
This was a rare moment of joy for Italy’s beleagured left, who have come through a rough few years. Unlike the rest of Italy, which had to wait decades, Sardinia received autonomy pretty much immediately after World War II, when Italy’s fascist dictatorship of Benito Mussolini fell. The first election was held in 1949 following the passage of a Statue of Autonomy in 1948, with the Christian Democracy (DC) the main party on 22 of sixty seats, and others including the Italian Communist Party (PCI) on thirteen, and the right-wing Monarchist National Party (PNM, the monarchy was abolished in the 1946 referendum but most southerners, including Sardinia, voted to keep it, and so the PNM did well in the South) and the regionalist Sardinian Action Party on seven each. A few other parties won seats: the left-wing Sardinian Socialist Action Party (PSd’AzS), the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI), the Italian Socialist Party on three each, the more centrist Italian Workers’ Socialist Party (PSLI) and the old centre-right Italian Liberal Party (PLI, not the current one) on one each. A DC-PSd’Az coalition was formed under Mayor of Cagliari Luigi Crespellani. The DC would become Italy’s hegemon, with American intervention helping them beat a PCI-PSI joint list in the 1948 national election (the PSLI was formed by PSI members disillusioned). In 1953 when the two ran apart, it was revealed that the PCI was indeed the DC’s main rival. The situation with the DC as the largest party and the PCI second kept in the 1953, with the DC winning thirty of 65 seats, the PCI fifteen, the PSI (who the PSd’AzS had merged into) and the PNM five each, the MSI and PSd’Az four each, and the PLI and the PSLI, which had renamed itself the Italian Democratic Socialist Party (PSDI) after mergers one each. Crespellani kept on until 1954 when former Mayor of Oristano Alfredo Corrias and then in 1955 scientist Gisueppe Brotzu replaced him. In 1957, again the DC won with 31 of seventy seats, and the PCI got thirteen, the PSI and new People’s Monarchist Party (PMP) which split from the PNM four, the MSI three, the PSDI and PLI one.
Luigi Crespellani (DC) would be Sardinia’s first President from 1949 to 1954. He began a long period of DC dominance which was mirrored in Italy’s national scene DC would beat the PCI again in national elections in 1958. Brotzu was replaced by Efisio Corrias later that year in a DC-PSd’Az government. Corrias’ DC won the 1961 election with 37 seats of 72, a majority on their own. The PCI won fourteen, the PSI seven, a joint list between the PSd’Az and the liberal Italian Republican Party (PRI) five, the MSI four, the Italian Democratic Party of Monarchist Unity (PDIUM) (a merger between the PNM and PMP) and the PSDI on two each, and the PLI on one. They still included the PSd’Az and later the PSDI in their government. The DC also beat the PCI again in Italy’s 1963 election. The next Sardinian election was in 1965. The DC lost their majority with 35 seats, with the PCI on fifteen, the PSI and a joint PSd’AZ-PRI list on five each, the PLI, PSDI, and MSI on three, and the PDIUM on two. A new left-wing PSI split called the Italian Socialist Party of Proletarian Unity (PSIUP) got the last seat. The PSI and PSd’Az were brought into government. Corrias was replaced by Paolo Dettori and then Giovanni Del Rio, who did not include the PSd’Az. The DC won the 1968 Italian election. In 1969, the DC won 36 of 74 seats, with the PCI on fifteen, a joint PSI and PDSI list nine, the PLI, PSIUP, and PSd’Az on three, the MSI and PDIUM on two, and a PRI-led list on one. Del Rio was replaced by Renaissance Assessor (minister) Lucio Abis in 1970, Antonio Giagu De Martini in 1971, Pietro Soddu in 1972, Salvator Angelo Spanu a month later in 1972, De Martini again in 1972 and finally Del Rio once more in 1973. The coalition partners changed frequently as well with the PSd’AZ, PSI, and PSDI. In 1972, the DC also won again in Italy. Despite the instability, the DC still won 32 of 75 seats in 1974, beating the PCI who won 22. The remaining seats went to the PSI on nine, the MSI on six, the PSDI three, and the PSd’Az, PLI, and PRI on one each. The PSIUP had split after a poor 1972 election with most members joining the PCI or PSI, and the PDIUM had merged into the MSI. A DC-PSI-PSDI coalition was formed. The PCI made big gains in the 1976 national election, but the DC still won and Del Rio was elected, so Soddu replaced him. Another national election was held in 1979 where the PCI lost ground amidst left-wing terror groups (which the staunchly constitutional PCI oppoed) taking root in Italy. A couple of weeks later, a Sardinian vote was held, with the DC on 32 of eighty seats and the PCI 22, the PSI nine, the MSI and PSDI four each, the PSd’Az and PRI three, the liberal Radical Party (PR) two, and the PLI one. The DC’s Mario Puddu took charge briefly but in 1979 the PSDI’s Alessandro Ghinami took power in a DC-PSI-PSDI coalition. The PSI and PSDI broke with the DC in 1980 and Soddu and Puddu had brief one-month terms before a PCI-PSI-PSDI-PSd’Az coalition finally removed the DC from power under Socialist Francesco Rais and then in 1982 the PSd’Az’s Mario Melis. However, the DC formed a coalition with the PSI, PSDI, and PRI in 1982 with Angelo Rojch taking power. The DC made losses but won the 1983 national election. Sardinia held elections in 1984, and the DC was still top with 27 seats of 81, but the PCI won 24 and the PSd’Az surged to twelve. The PSI took eight, the PSDI four, a joint PRI-PLI list and the MSI three, while the PR lost their seats. Melis returned in a coalition with the PCI, PSI, and later PSDI, serving a full term, and excluding the DC. The DC did win the 1987 national election. In 1989, they bounced back in Sardinia with 29 of eighty seats, while the PCI took nineteen and the PSI twelve and PSd’Az ten. The PSDI won four, and the joint PRI-PLI list and the MSI won three each. A DC-PSI-PSDI coalition was formed under the DC’s Mario Floris, and then from 1991 the PSI’s Antonello Cabras. The DC won the 1992 election, while the PCI had reformed itself as communism fell in Europe and it had not really practiced Marxism-Leninism for years. Instead it became the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS) and came in its familiar second place ahead of the PSI. In the North of Italy, the Lega Nord (Northern League), a right-wing party preaching Padanian (northern) nationalism surged to fourth nationally. A new majoritarian system was passed for the Senate in a 1993 referendum, and the parliament voted to adopt it for the lower house as well. Thus, coalitions were favoured from now on. This also applied to the Sardinian parliament. 1994 saw the death of the DC due to corruption scandals. It reformed in a much smaller form from mostly its left wing as the Italian People’s Party (PPI). The PDS seemed destined to win, but media magnate Silvio Berlusconi filled the vacuum, with his new party Forza Italia (FI, Forward Italy). He formed a coalition called the Pole of Freedoms with Lega Nord in the north and the Pole of Good Government with the National Alliance (AN), the successor of the MSI (which had merged with some DC right-wingers) in the south. The PDS formed an Alliance of Progressives with other left-wing parties like the PSI, and the PPI led the Pact for Italy. Berlusconi won the election, with the Progressives in second and the Pact for Italy miles behind in third. This created a new right-left duoopoly instead of a centre-right hegemony.
A new electoral system and the entry of Silvio Berlusconi into politics helped fill the vacuum left when the DC collapsed This also changed Sardinia’s system. A direct presidential election would be held. No candidate received a majority in the first round, so the top three went to a run-off. These were the Pole of Good Government (FI)’s Ovidio Marras, the Alliance of Progressives (PDS)’s Federico Palomba, and Gian Mario Selis from the PPI, who formed a Centrist coalition with the PRI. Narrowly missing out was Massimo Fantola from the Segni Pact (PS), a liberal party who was the PPI’s main ally in 1994, while the PSd’Az’s Pasqualina Crobu and a minor autonomous candidate Gianfranco Pintore missing out. In the second round, Palomba beat Marras, becoming president and getting eight of the sixteen direct seats, with six for Palomba and the Pole and two for Selis and the centrists. The Progressives got 21 more seats on the party vote for a total of 29, with thirteen for the PDS, four the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC), which split when the PCI dropped communism, and four for the Democratic Federation (FD) which was formed in Sardinia from those left-wing parties damaged by the corruption scandals that did for DC like the PSI, PSDI and PRI. The Pole won 22 more seats for a total of 28, with fourteen for FI and eight for the AN. The Segni Pact also took six and the PSd’Az four. The Progressive government governed for a full term, but in Rome, the LN quickly fell out with Berlusconi and left the government leading to new elections in 1996. The PDS led an alliance called The Olive Tree with others such as the PPI, PRI and PS, while the Pole for Freedoms was formed by FI and the AN, but not the LN who ran alone. The Olive Tree won and Romano Prodi became PM. In 1999, Sardinian elections were held. The Pole for Freedoms (FI) candidate Mauro Pili just missed a majority in the first round, forcing him into a runoff with The Olive Tree (PPI) candidate Gian Mario Selis, eliminating three minor candidates. Pili won the runoff, taking nine seats for the Pole compared to seven for The Olive Tree, and became President. However, The Olive Tree won the most list votes, with thirty for a total of 37: ten for the PDS, seven for the PPI, four each for the FD and The Democrats, a party founded by the recently ousted Prodi who was previously an independent, three for the Italian Democratic Socialists (SDI) which had been a merger of the remainder of the PSI and PSDI, and two for the PRC. Meanwhile the Pole won 28, thus also totalling 37, with thirteen for FI, seven for the AN, three for the Sardinian Reformers, which was meant to be the Sardinian section of the PS but had de-satellised itself, three for the Christian Democratic Centre (CCD), conservatives who left the DC when it became the PPI to join with Berlusconi, and two for the pro-Internet (which was then still new) New Movement. The PSd’Az won three seats, as did the new centrist Democratic Union for the Republic (UDR) which succeeded the PS. Thus, even though Pili was elected President, he did not have a majority, and was soon voted out by the parliament. Selis became President, but The Olive Tree didn’t have a majority either. Therefore, Floris, now in the UDR, was voted in with the support of the Olive Tree. In 2001, Pili won back control for the Pole, and he was replaced by the AN’s Italo Masala in 2003.
Mauro Pili was elected President in 1999 but then removed because the Pole for Freedoms didn’t have a majority After internal fighting in The Olive Tree, Prodi was removed and the 1996-2001 term went through three Prime Ministers. Berlusconi made up with the LN and formed the House of Freedoms with the AN, LN, CCD, PRI and others. The PDS had merged with some smaller left-wing parties like the FD to form the Democrats of the Left (DS), and The Olive Tree also included parties like the PPI and SDI. Berlusconi easily won another term. The next Sardinian election was in 2004. The multi-round presidential election was abolished and a majority bonus was given: the winner would get eight seats and the runner-up one. Renato Soru, a businessman who founded the Sardinian Project (PS) party won a majority anyway and got the eight seats. The Olive Tree won 43 more for a total of 51 of 85 seats: the DS thirteen, Democracy is Freedom – The Daisy (a merger led by the PPI and The Democrats) ten, the PS seven, the PRC five, the SDI and UDR split the Union of Democrats for Europe (UDEUR) three each, and the PRC split the Party of Italian Communists (PdCI, who supported Prodi when the PRC withdrew support) and the populist anti-corruption Italy of Values (IdV) one each. Pili got his runner-up seat and the House of Freedoms got 29 more for a total of thirty with ten for FI, seven for the Union of the Centre (UdC, a followup of the CCD), five for the AN, four for the RS, and three for the regionalist Fortza Paris which split from the PPI in Sardinia. The PSd’Az won two seats as did a list led by the regionalist Union of Sardinians. Thus, Soru had a majority. For 2006, the House of Freedoms consisted of the AN, UDC, LN, PRI and others. Meanwhile, Prodi formed The Union with the DS, The Daisy, the PRC, UDEUR, PdCI, IdV, and others, with Prodi emerging victorious. However, he was unable to get a Senate majority and only lasted until 2008. The FI and AN ran together (and later merged) as The People of Liberty (PdL), which led a “centre-right coalition” alongside the LN and others. Meanwhile, the DS merged with The Daisy and others to form the Democratic Party, which led the centre-left coalition with the IdV. The centre-right won the election, and Berlusconi became PM again. The PS was won of the parties that merged into the PD, and Soru led the centre-left coalition in 2009. However, he lost to the centre-right’s Ugo Cappellacci from the PdL. He got nine bonus seats and the centre-right got 44 for a total of 53: 25 for the PdL, seven for the UdC, five for the RS, four for the PSd’Az, who was historically more to the left and caused controversy by moving to the right, and two for a civic list called United Sardinia and one for another called Together for the Autonomies. Soru still got the runners-up seat, and the centre-left got 26 more for a total of 27 with eighteen for the PD, three for IdV, two for the PRC, and one each for the Red Moors, who split due to the PSd’Az’s rightward shift the PdCI, and the left-wing Democratic Left (SD). The big two coalitions were the only ones to win seats.
Ugo Cappellacci (PdL) defeated Renato Soru and won Sardinia back for the centre-right in 2009 Berlusconi’s parliamentary majority was slowly whittled down and in 2011 he lost power to a technocratic government which carried Italy through to 2013. The PD-led Italia. Bene Comune (Italy. Common Good, IBC) coalition of Pier Luigi Bersani won the election, beating the PdL-led centre-right. However due to Bersani’s failure to form a government, his deputy Enrico Letta became PM in a grand coalition with the PdL. This election also saw the rise of the populist, anti-establishment, but not particularly left- or right-wing Five Star Movement. They were Eurosceptic and were the closest ally of British anti-EU crusader Nigel Farage. Meanwhile, the 2014 Sardinian election adopted the current law, which benefitted major parties with the 10% threshold for coalition and the winner’s bonus to guarantee a majority. Cappellacci lost to the centre-left coalition and PD’s Francesco Pigliaru narrowly. Pigliaru got a direct seat, to go with his party’s 35 for a total of 36: eighteen for the PD, four for the new left-wing Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) alliance, two each for the regionalist Party of Sardinians (PdS), Red Moors, Christian liberal Democratic Centre (CD), and PRC, and one each for the Christian centrist Christian Popular Union (UPC), PSI, a joint list between IdV and the left-wing Greens, the left-wing separatist Independence Republic of Sardinia (iRS), and The Base, which split from PD in Sardinia over local politics. Cappellacci still got a runners-up seat, plus 23 for the centre-right for a total of 24. Forza Italia had revived itself as PdL collapsed in the wake of the 2013 election and took ten, with the UdC on four, the RS and PSd’Az three, the new Brothers of Italy which split from the right of PdL, the Union of Sardinians (UdS, formerly the UDS), and the Sardinia Free Zone Movement (MSZF) one each; the latter being in favour of a free trade zone in Sardinia.
Francesco Pugliaru (PD) won the 2014 election back for the centre-left When the PdL collapsed, FI withdrew from the coalition. Meanwhile, Matteo Renzi won the PD leadership election and claimed he should have the right to be Prime Minister, which he took in 2014. In 2016, a constitutional reform that would reduce the power of the Senate became a referendum on Renzi himself. It was opposed by both the centre-right and M5S and Renzi was defeated 3:2 and resigned. Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni took power until the 2018 election. The centre-right saw a big shock as the Lega Nord overtook the FI to become the biggest party in the coalition. Under Matteo Salvini, it had eschewed Padanian nationalism for right-wing populism. The M5S was the largest sole party while the centre-left was battered. Giuseppe Conte, an independent jurist was chosen as a technocrat to carry out a populist coalition of the M5S and LN, whose leaders both became Deputy Prime Minister. Salvini went around the FI, but they stayed in coalition. In the 2019 Sardinian election, Christian Solinas, who had masterminded the PSd’Az’s move rightwards was chosen, and he won the election back for the right. As well as his seat, the centre-right won 35 for a total of 36: eight for the League, now a force in the South as well, seven for the PSd’Az, five for FI, four for the RS, three for the FdI, regionalist Sardinia 20Twenty, and UDC, and one each for the regionalist Civic Sardinia and Fortza Paris. The centre-left Mayor of Cagliari Massimo Zedda of the Progressive Camp Sardinia was the runner-up taking a seat, plus seventeen for a total of eighteen: eight for the PD, two each for the left-wing Free and Equal, the Progressive Camp, two civic lists called We, Sardinia and Common Future, and one for the Italia in Comune split from the M5S. The M5S also took six seats. However, their coalition with the League was having problems in 2019, with the League ahead in polls. Salvini pulled out to force elections and become PM himself, but the PD stepped in to save the coalition. After this, the M5S started to be associated with the centre-left more and move away from populism. Meanwhile, the PD moved to the left, leading to Renzi splitting to form Italia Viva (IV, Italy Alive). They still supported the government, but pulled out in 2021 leading to a government crisis, and a technocratic government led by Mario Draghi, an independent, supported by all parties bar FdI. This led to a rise in support for FdI, while the League and FI fell. In the 2022 election, where the centre-right pledged unity, they won a majority: FdI was the largest party, and their leader Giorgia Meloni became PM, with the League and FI minor parties. The centre-left was hit hard with the Democratic Party – Democratic and Progressive Italy (PD-IDP) alliance getting his further, and the M5S doing even worse. Italia Viva did not perform well either. The FdI-Lega-FI coalition has stayed pretty solid, even after Berlusconi’s death in 2023. Pretty much every regional election since the 2016 referendum had swung against the left, and when the left did win an election, such as the 2020 race is Emilia-Romagna (which was considered a left stronghold anyway), it was a cause for wild chattering about how this was a ‘comeback’ and jubilation. In fact, still after this election only six of twenty regions are held by the left, and fourteen are held by the right. This was before regional elections in Abruzzo (March) and Basilicata (April).
Giorgia Meloni (FdI) has led Italy since 2022, a period of right-wing supremacy Opinion polls show that the party support has not changed much since 2022. However, this is still obviously a joyful moment for the left. The PD-M5S alliance has bore fruit, as the M5S’ Alessandra Todde defeated FdI’s Paolo Truzzu by just three thousand votes. However, the ‘third pole’ of Italia Viva and others with a generally centrist, Third Way leaning do not like the alliance with the M5S, whose populist Eurosceptic past they remember. This time, they got behind Soru, who revived the PS for this election, and weirdly also the PRC, but this bombed with 8.7%, behind the threshold. Within the parties, both the PD and M5S will be pretty happy with their shares, although a number of minor parties got seats: one for Todde and 35 more for a total of 36: eleven for the PD, seven for the M5S, four for the Greens and Left Alliance, three for a civic list, Shared Horizons, the Progressive Party (no longer the Progressive Camp), and Future Left, and one for a coalition of the PSI and the Sardinians in Europe. The centre-right got Truzzu’s seat plus 23 more for a total of 24: seven for FdI, three each for the RS, FI, the minor Sardinia in the Centre 2020, and PSd’Az, two each for the Sardinia Alliance and PLI joint list and the League, and one for the UdC. Replacing Christian Solinas of the PSd’Az with the unpopular Truzzu, a Mayor of Cagliari whose construction projects are blamed for congestion and has a Mussolini-themed tattoo as candidate seems to have backfired. It’s a bad result for the PSd’Az and especially the League, who lose another region as leader of the right to the FdI. Salvini, who had tasted power and nearly had control of the government, is now Deputy Prime Minister but in reality a pretty powerless figure. Meloni wants to centralise power around herself, ridding Italy of the instability of the past (the last Prime Minister to complete a full five-year term in office was Berlusconi from 2001 to 2006) by introducing a system similar to regional elections in the national scene. She will not be worried by this setback, but it did give the left something to celebrate, their first election win in any region since 2020.
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Hungary: Sulyok elected President
On 26 February, Hungary held elections for its head of state, the President of Hungary, and the election was won by independent Tamás Sulyok.
The facts
Hungarian presidential elections are held indirectly by the parliament for a five-year term. Candidates need the nomination of one fifth of MPs, and to get a two-thirds majority of all MPs in the first round. If not, then the top two go to a runoff where only a simple majority is required. If only one candidate is nominated, then a simple for or against vote is held.
- Population: 9.6 million (2023)
- Religion: in 2022, 40.1% refused to say. The remaining results were 42.5% Christian (29.2% Catholic (27.5% Roman Catholic, 1.7% Greek Catholic), 9.8% Calvinist, 1.8% Lutheran, 1.7% Other), 1.2% Other, 16.1% None (2022)
- Ethnicities: 93.5% Hungarian, 3.2% Romani, 1.9% German, 1.5% Other (2011)
- Type of government: Unitary parliamentary republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: 65/100 (Partly free)
The election is due to the resignation of incumbent Katalin Novák of the right-wing populist Fidesz (Alliance of Young Democrats) party. Novák had worked in the government for years before joining Fidesz and being elected to parliament in 2018. In 2020, she was appointed Minister for Family Affairs in 2020, serving until 2021, when Fidesz announced she was a presidential candidate. After she was elected, she stepped down as MP in 2022 before a few days later taking office as President. She resigned in 2024 because of a scandal regarding the pardoning of a vice-principal in a foster home that tried to cover up child molestation by the principal; when this became public protests led to her resignation.
The sole candidate was Tamás Sulyok, an independent. He served as Hungary’s Honorary Consul to Austria from 2000 to 2014, before he was appointed Member of the Constitutional Court. He was named the body’s Acting President in 2016, and then became President full-time later that year. He was considered the government’s candidate.
Independent Tamás Sulyok, President of the Constitutional Court The current government, led by Fidesz, adopted a new constitution in 2011. In 2022, the opposition supported making presidential elections direct. They also held a rally to the same effect before this election, and did not field a candidate.
In the end, Tamás Sulyok, the independent, received 134 votes (96.4%), while five votes (3.6%) were against. 4.8% of votes were invalid or blank, while turnout was 73.7%.
Analysis
After a scandal broke destroying the presidency of Katalin Novák, Fidesz will hope Tamás Sulyok will not further cast a shadow on them. To them, the President is meant to stay out of the political limelight, shake hands, and rubber stamp whatever the government does.
After the decline of the Roman Empire, Central Europe was invaded by the Huns, Avars, Franks, and Bulgarians over time before the formation of the Principality of Hungary following the Magyar invasion in about 895. The area was hardly populated and easily conquered. They had come from the east, and their language has more in common with Finnish than Slavic languages. When Hungary converted to Christianity, it applied to the Pope to become a kingdom, which was granted in 1000, becoming the Kingdom of Hungary. The Árpád dynasty continued to rule Hungary until 1301, leading to an interregnum when the line died out but then consolidation under Charles I. The nobility would elect kings in this era. Hungary’s empire expanded far beyond the territories of the modern state into the Balkans, and this led to war with the Ottoman Empire. Their defeat at the 1526 Battle of Mohács led to the shrinkage of the country, and the death of King Louis II. Only a small area, the Budin Eyalet, became part of the Ottoman Empire. The nobility was then split between wanting to elect Holy Roman Emperor Ferdinand I and Hungarian aristocrat John Zápolya. The part controlled by Ferdinand became known as Royal Hungary, and was outside the Holy Roman Empire but in personal union with it, while Zápolya (John I)’s part became the Eastern Hungarian Kingdom. His son John II renounced his throne in 1570, agreeing that the Habsburg’s area was Hungary; instead it became the Principality of Transylvania which was a vassal state but basically autonomous. The Budin Eyalet lasted until the 1686 Siege of Buda, and Habsburg rule was re-established there. A war of independence by Hungarians against the Habsburgs in 1711 failed, after this the Habsburg’s consolidated rule over Translyvania as part of Hungary. Hungary began a reform period in 1825, when the Diet, which had existed since medieval times, asserted its power over the Habsburgs. This culminated in an attempted Revolution of 1848, where the attempt to reform led to the Habsburgs (now consolidated as the Austrian Empire) beginning to use force against Hungary. This suppressed the Revolution only with Russian help. As Austria was weakened over the next twenty years, it signed the Austro-Hungarian compromise, where Austria and Hungary (including Translyvania) would be two sovereign countries within one dual monarchy. There would be parliamentary elections and prime ministers at this time (separate ones for Austria and Hungary) during much of which Hungary was dominated by the Liberal Party, who supported the compromise, winning many minority votes but alienating ethnic Hungarians.
Flag used by Austro-Hungarian ships Austria-Hungary lost in World War I, and as the empire collapsed, in Hungary, soldiers began to mutiny and revolt, adopting leftism. The first Hungarian Republic was declared in 1918, with a social democratic government. However, communists began to form and in 1919, the social democrats lost a majority. They merged with the previously imprisoned communists to form a socialist party, which took power and soon was dominated by communists, with social democratic leader Mihály Károlyi arrested and then exiled to France. A Hungarian Soviet Republic was formed, and they also created a puppet state in Slovakia leading to war with Czechoslovakia, who managed to take it back. Hungary was still occupied by the Allies, and these included Romania; in parts of the country with high levels of minorities such as Transylvania. Knowing that Romania may encourage these groups to succeed, Soviet Hungary continued a war by the social-democratic government to take it back, but this led to defeat, the fleeing of the communist government, and the end of the Soviet Republic. The social-democratic Republic was restored. However, days later, a coup established a right-wing dictatorship, leading to a period of suppression known as the White Terror. In the 1920 election, most people voted for right-wing parties. The parliament decided to restore the monarchy, but postpone electing a king until the disorder had ended, instead declaring former naval chief Miklós Horthy regent. In fact, the Kingdom of Hungary would permanently be a regency and the throne would remain vacant in its entire history. The dominant party was the conservative Unity Party, who won a majority in 1922, 1926, and 1931 elections, but Horthy had huge power. Hungary lost massive amounts of territory in the Treaty of Trianon with the World War I allies. In the 1930s, fascism rose in Europe and it also took root in the Unity Party, now led by the fascist Gyula Gömbös, who renamed it the National Unity Party. This then became the Party of Hungarian Life. As well as the popularity of right-wing politics, Hungary had a grudge against the Allies, making them natural allies of Nazi Germany. The party never achieved the control that Germany or Italy’s fascist parties did, and in fact much power was concentrated in Horthy who suppressed fascism. In 1941, Hungary entered World War II, declaring war on the Soviet Union. However, as the war turned against the Axis, Horthy, who was already at best lukewarm towards the fascists and the Holocaust (Hitler was enraged that Horthy did not sufficiently persecute Hungary’s sizable Jewish population), tried to get out of the mess and change sides. Thus in 1944, Germany launched a surprise attack and quickly invaded and occupied Hungary to prevent Horthy changing sides. However, as things got even worse for the Axis and Romania switched sides, Horthy tried again, leading to Germany removing him and installing the Arrow Cross Party, the country’s actual fascist party which had been suppressed by Horthy, in a so-called Government of National Unity. This also led to the Holocaust being implemented fully in Hungary. Meanwhile, the country was being overrun by the Soviet Union, who also held elections and set up a parallel government in areas they controlled, with communists, social democrats, and agrarian parties being the main winners. Hungary was occupied in full by the Soviet Union after the war. Elections were held again in 1945, and the agrarians defeated the social democrats and communists. In 1946, the monarchy was officially abolished and the Third Republic was declared. However, the Soviet Union forced at least a grand coalition where communists controlled the interior ministry and police, allowing them to take control anyway by finding charges to remove agrarian members. Ferenc Nagy, the Prime Minister, was forced into exile. The communists tried to rig the 1947 election, but still fell short of a majority in a very fragmented parliament. However, more members were removed and the social democrats were forced to merge with the communists, forming the Hungarian Working People’s Party (MDP), which was basically just a bigger communist party rather than a genuine coalition. The other parties were then forced into an alliance called the Hungarian Independence People’s Front (MFN); the non-MDP parties got taken over by communist allies, and instead of electoral choice, voters in 1949 simply got for or against, with 97.1% voting in favour of the MFN, who got every seat. These would be divided between the parties, with the MDP guaranteed a majority, thus creating communist rule in Hungary as the new National Assembly created a Stalinist constitution which enshrined the status that the MDP would lead the country, now the Hungarian People’s Republic. Other communist initiatives like separation of church and state, collectivisation, and the destruction of free press were implemented. The MDP General Secretary Mátyás Rákosi was the most powerful man in the country.
Mátyás Rákosi led Hungary’s communist party from 1945 to 1956, leading to him controlling the country from the onset of communism in 1949 Rákosi was a totalitarian, and held elections again in 1953, this time with no parties other than the MDP, though independents also joined the MFN. He modelled himself on Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, but when Stalin died, the Soviet Union moved away from totalitarian dictatorship and towards more collective leadership. This led to Rákosi’s partial demotion: his position was renamed ‘First Secretary’ and the reformist Imre Nagy became Chairman of the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister). However, Rákosi was able to outmanoeuvre him and replace Nagy, who had also strayed too far from communism for the Soviets’ liking. Nagy had promised more openness, and his removal disappointed Hungarians, who began to protest. When the Soviet Union denounced Stalin in the Secret Speech of 1956, the Soviets next removed Rákosi and replaced him with his deputy Ernő Gerő. Protests against communism and Soviet domination of Hungary began from students in 1956, which turned into the Hungarian Revolution. The MDP tried to quell this by removing Gerő and putting Nagy back in power as Prime Minister. The MDP would dissolve itself and reorganise as the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party (MSZMP), with its First Secretary being János Kádár. Nagy announced all sorts of democratisation and liberalisation, and requested that the Soviet Union withdraw, planning to be a neutral country in the Cold War like much of the Third World and Yugoslavia. However, this led to a Soviet invasion and the removal of Nagy and his execution. Kádár reacted in time despite initially backing some of the liberalisation, and after the Soviet invasion was successful, he set up a Revolutionary Workers’-Peasants’ Government. He broadly understood Hungary’s position as a satellite state, but attempted to create at least a less repressive environment than orthodox Marxism-Leninism with more concern for public opinion to avoid another uprising; this was known as Goulash Communism. One surviving feature of Nagy was the renaming of the MFN to the Patriotic People’s Front (HNF), which still controlled elections dominated by the MSZMP. Elections were held again in 1958 and 1963. In 1967, the election allowed multiple HNF candidates in some constituencies, this was also used in 1971, 1975, and 1980.
János Kádár ruled Hungary from 1956 to 1988 By 1985, new rules meant that each constituency seat was contested by more than one candidate, but they still had to be affiliated with the HNF. This was to be the last election held under communist rule. Kádár was by 1988 too old to continue, and was removed in place of Chairman of the Council of Ministers Károly Grósz. At the same time, the Soviet Union was liberalising, allowing Grósz to make changes as well. However, even these changes were too slow, and radical reformers in the party were sidelining him, as liberal political activity swelled. A four-man presidency was set up to replace the Politburo, with the leader being President Rezső Nyers, who therefore outranked General Secretary Grósz. In 1989, Nyers dissolved the MSZMP and replaced it with the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), while the remaining communists under Grósz split to form a new MSZMP. Multi-party elections would be held, with a parliamentary republic replacing the Marxist-Leninist state, and a 1989 referendum further removed the MSZMP influence. A point of contention was whether presidential elections should be direct or indirect, and whether a president should be elected before or after parliament; the referendum chose the ‘after’ side with 50.1% support, confirming that the president would have a ceremonial role. A state politician (the Prime Minister) would be the most powerful rather than a party general secretary. A few parties won seats in the first election, held in 1990. The largest was the Hungarian Democratic Form (MDF), a centre-right liberal party formed during the last years of communism. The more radical liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) was second, while the revived pre-communist agrarian party, the Independent Smallholders, Agrarian Workers and Civic Party (FKgP) was third. The MSZP was reduced to fourth place, while the other main parties to get seats were Fidesz, another liberal party, and the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP), a Christian conservative party that had also existed before communism. The continuity MSZMP won no seats. The MDF, FKgP, and KDNP formed a coalition, allowing the former’s József Antall to become Prime Minister. The MSZP still wanted a strong presidency, and called a referendum to force this, but this failed due to low turnout. Much of the constitution required a two-thirds majority, which the coalition did not have. To try and allow this, the parliament elected the SZDSZ’s Árpád Göncz as President. Antall died in 1993, and was replaced by Interior Minister Péter Boross, who completed the term until 1994.
Árpád Göncz, President of Hungary from 1990 to 2000 In a remarkable turnaround, in 1994 the MSZP returned with a majority. The other seats went to the SZDSZ, MDF, FKgP, KDNP, and Fidesz. Fidesz had shrunk as it had declared itself ‘centrist’ instead of ‘liberal’, leading many liberals to leave and join the SZDSZ, it was now led by Viktor Orbán, who moved it in a more conservative direction. The new government was led by the MSZP’s Gyula Horn, and to win a two-thirds majority and allay Western fears of a former communist party regaining power, allied with the SZDSZ. Göncz had MSZP and SZDSZ support and so easily was re-elected over independent Ferenc Mádl in 1995, with Mádl supported by Fidesz, the KDNP, and the MDF. In 1998, Fidesz won the most seats, as the MSZP won the most votes but lost its majority and came second. The remaining seats went to the FKgP, the SZDSZ, the MDF, and the far-right Hungarian Life and Justice Party (MIÉP). The KDNP lost all representation. Under Orbán, Fidesz formed a coalition with the FKgP and MDF. This allowed for the election of Mádl in 2000, though it took three rounds due to a two-thirds majority being needed.
Ferenc Mádl, President of Hungary from 2000 to 2005 In 2002, the MSZP won the most votes again, though a joint Fidesz-MDF list won the most seats. The SZDSZ were the third party, with the FKgP withering away nearly completely and the MIÉP also losing seats. An MSZP-SZDSZ coalition was formed, with the independent (but MSZP-aligned) Péter Medgyessy as PM. In 2003, a referendum allowed Hungary to join the European Union. This ended up hurting Medgyessy, as in the 2004 European elections the MSZP were defeated by Fidesz. With the parties’ patience in him fading, he ended up falling out with SZDSZ, which was his death knell and he resigned. Youth and Sports Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány replaced him in 2004. However, in a presidential race independent (but close to Fidesz) judge Lazsló Sólyom defeated the Socialists’ Katalin Szili in 2005. In 2006, the MSZP won the most seats ahead of a joint list between Fidesz and the KDNP. The SZDSZ and MDF were the minor parties. The Socialist-SZDSZ coalition was renewed. A speech after the election by Gyurcsány, known as the Őszöd speech, was private and addressed to the MSZP. He angrily criticised the government for not doing enough to make progress, and lying to the electorate, peppering it with vulgarity. When it leaked, it led to a huge protests. Fidesz now had the momentum; in 2008 they forced a referendum on abolishing hospital and education fees, which the government had no money for. When this passed, Gyurcsány blamed the SZDSZ Health Minister, harming the coalition. By 2009, Gyurcsány had resigned, and Gordon Bajnai, an independent had the Socialist support to run until the 2010 election. This election resulted in a supermajority for the Fidesz-KDNP alliance. The opposition consisted of the Socialists, the far-right nationalist Jobbik (a dual meaning of ‘Better’ and ‘Right’) and the green Politics Can Be Different (LMP). This election killed off the SZDSZ and MDF, which were the two leading parties in the fall of communism. In fact, post-2010 can be seen as another era in Hungary since independence from the Habsburg’s: the left-wing First and Soviet Republics, Horthy’s dictatorship, the German occupation and fascism, the Soviet occupation and Second Republic, Rákosi’s Stalinism, Goulash Communism, the transition to democracy, multiparty democracy, and now Orbán’s Hungary. Orbán began a Fidesz-KDNP government in 2010, although it is hardly a coalition as it is dominated by Fidesz; the KDNP is more like a satellite party now. In the presidential election of the same year, Pál Schmitt of Fidesz defeated the Socialist András Balogh.
Pál Schmitt, President of Hungary from 2010 to 2012 Under Orbán, the government quickly ambitiously changed laws and established a new constitution in 2011. Since then, his government has been strongly criticised for democratic backsliding, clashing with the EU and leading to Fidesz, which switched the liberals for the European People’s Party (EPP) under his leadership getting suspended from the Europarty in 2021. However, it is without doubt that the government has a lot of support. In 2012, Schmitt was forced to resign when it was revealed his dissertation for his degree was plagiarised. A new election was held, with János Áder, who briefly led Fidesz in the wake of Orbán’s 2002 defeat, becoming President in an election boycotted by the opposition.
János Áder, President of Hungary from 2012 to 2022 This did not halt Fidesz’s popularity, and the Fidesz-KDNP alliance won another supermajority (by one seat) in 2014. The runner-up was an opposition coalition called Unity: it consisted of the Socialists, Bajani’s liberal Together 2014, Dialogue for Hungary (which split from the LMP because it refused to join with Together 2014), Democratic Coalition (DK, formed by Gyurcsány who had fallen out with the MSZP), and the small Hungarian Liberal Party (MLP). The remaining seats were won by Jobbik and LMP. As right-wing populism swept through Europe, Orbán adopted it as his own, with a 2016 referendum on the EU mandating migrants into Hungary proposed and a no vote supported by Fidesz, the KDNP, and Jobbik. All of Unity (apart from the MLP, who supported a Yes vote) supported a boycott and LMP did not take a position. It therefore failed due to low turnout. That said, the government lost their supermajority in 2015 after a proposed Internet tax led to backlash and protests and the party lost by-elections. Áder sometimes proved an irritant to Orbán, but he was still nominated again in 2017. The Unity parties and LMP nominated László Majtényi, but Áder was easily re-elected. Elections were held again in 2018, with no repeat of the Unity alliance. Fidesz and KDNP won another supermajority of one seat, while Jobbik, which was in a process of serious moderation, came second. Third was an alliance of the Socialists and Dialogue for Hungary, while the DK and LMP also won seats. Orbán continued in his right-wing populist direction in this term, also consolidating his control of Hungarian democratic institutions. In 2022, Katalin Novák, the Family Minister, was elected President with Fidesz and KDNP votes, with the opposition coalescing around independent Péter Rona.
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again since 2010 The opposition had aligned in a bloc called United for Hungary around independent Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely Péter Márki-Zay. He was considered a somewhat conservative mayor who did not have the negative connotations hurting the opposition. By now, Orbán’s control of the media and state had made the playing field uneven. United for Hungary consisted of Jobbik, the Socialists, Dialogue, the Democratic Coalition, LMP (now LMP – Hungary’s Green Party), and the small liberal Momentum Movement. However, Orbán won another big victory and a supermajority, while United for Hungary was second, and Jobbik, who had abandoned far-right politics, was replaced by the Our Homeland Movement as the standard-bearer of that form of politics. On the same day, a referendum was proposed on LGBT issues related to education (which led to a ballot-spoiling campaign by opposition and failed on low turnout), which the opposition claimed only existed to try and tie them to LGBT issues not being proposed (including “unrestricted exposure of minors to sexually explicit media content”). Orbán has cavorted with the American conservative movement more in recent years, who have looked to Hungary as an alternative to the current liberal regime in the US. It has promoted itself as the protector of traditional European family values and the position of the church against new liberal ideas such as LGBT rights and multiculturalism, which have supposedly broken the social fabric. He has not tried to leave the EU, appreciating its money, but attempted to form a conservative ‘alternative’ around the Visegrád Group, four Central European post-communist countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) who had at some point ‘black sheep’ governments. It took a blow when Poland elected the Europhile government of Donald Tusk in 2023, beating the conservative government that was very similar to Orbán’s but lacked the same control in office from 2015, but received a boost with the new Slovak government. Orbán represents a shift of the right-populists from wanting to leave the EU (think Nigel Farage) to accepting it but wanting to modify it (such as the current Italian government and the previous Polish one). Hungary has also been the least pro-Ukraine country in NATO and the EU following the Russian invasion, supporting China’s peace plan which is generally disliked by the West and Ukraine. China and Hungary have been rather close under Orbán, but his position has damaged relations with Czechia, Poland, and the old Slovak government. Orbán justifies it as choosing Hungary first rather than picking a side in a foreign war. This shows his appeal as the defender of Hungary and Hungary’s family values. Therefore, this scandal was a blow to them. Novák granted several pardons to criminals in 2023 to commemorate the visit of Pope Francis. One of the pardoned was Endre Kónya, the vice-principal of an orphanage who had been convicted of covering up the principal János Vásárhelyi’s child abuse, exchanging sex for favours between 2004 and 2016. After a victim committed suicide, another boy informed his guardian and he was moved orphanage but no further action was taken. Kónya then tried to coax the child into silence and was convicted of that in 2019 with a forty month sentence and five year ban from his job and public office. Pardons are not public in Hungary, but the opposition media caught onto it anyway. They noted that Novák’s mentor, the bishop-turned-Fidesz minister Zoltán Balog, who had great influence over Novák was behind it, and the two thought that it would not surface publicly. This led to protests and the resignation of President Novák, Justice Minister Judit Varga (who countersigned it), and Balog (President of the Synod of the Hungarian Reformed Church). Orbán stated that a constitutional amendment to stop child abusers receiving pardons will be introduced. He will hope that after Schmitt and Novák being scandal-ridden, Sulyok will not cause any further headlines, especially with European elections coming up in June. The opposition wanted direct elections for the president, perhaps hoping that there would be momentum against Orbán, but this did not happen, they boycotted it, and Sulyok got in easily. He is not expected to be a figure that will oppose Orbán, being a member of the judiciary which he has interfered with since 2014. However, in his speech, he did state that he would be more transparent. He also parroted the current Hungarian orthodoxy regarding the EU, noting that the states had not transferred sovereignty to the EU but competences because they can be more competently applied together. The idea of the EU as not a goal or even a body itself but simply a collection of member states is popular amongst the European right. Balkan Insight’s Bea Bakó has noted that he has generally favoured the government in legal cases: a link to which is available here.
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Liechtenstein: Sweeping reforms rejected
On 25 February, a referendum on direct elections for the government was held in Liechtenstein. It was rejected
The facts
The referendum was held after a popular initiative received enough signatures to go for a vote (1,994 were reached and 1,956 declared valid; a minimum of 1,500 are needed for a constitutional referendum). After it was rejected by the Landtag (the legislature, State Diet) by 22 votes to three, a binding referendum was triggered. Currently, the Prime Minister and four Cabinet members (the government) are chosen by the Landtag, and remains accountable to both it and the monarch (subject to votes of confidence). This proposal would provide for direct elections. Two members per constituency (of which there are two) would be elected to the cabinet, and the Prime Minister directly elected by the whole country. Each would have to be ratified by the Landtag, and the rejection of any would lead to snap elections for the Landtag. They would also still need to be ratified by the monarch; if they are not, then a by-election is held for the vacant position.
This is a follow-up to previous referenda held in January, the article for which is here The amendment was proposed by the right-wing populist Democrats for Liechtenstein (DpL). However, it was opposed by the centre-right liberal Patriotic Union (VU).
In the end, the referendum received 9,309 (68.0%) of votes against, and 4,380 (32.0%) in favour. 1.8% were invalid or blank, and turnout was 66.5%. Therefore, it was rejected and the constitution remains the same. The next referendum will be over building a new state hospital.
Analysis
Referendums are common in Liechtenstein, but few seemed as consequential as this. At least one vote has been held in every year since 2017, but mostly on specific domestic issues rather than grand constitutional questions. In January, three votes were held: two successful attempts to block laws by the government to force mandatory solar panels and adopting EU energy laws, and a failed attempt by Democrats for Liechtenstein to make health records opt-in rather than opt-out. That’s not to say big issues haven’t been put to referendum: four votes were held before in 1984 voters finally decided to allow women’s suffrage, the last country in Europe to do so, while the role of the Prince, the monarch, who alongside his counterparts in Monaco and Vatican City is the only monarch with significant political powers left in Europe, has been questioned. His veto power has been controversial in Europe and among some Liechtensteiners, but is generally popular and removing it was rejected by a 3:1 margin in a 2012 vote. His riches, say locals, help Liechtenstein stay prosperous, and it is not worth risking that for more political rights. There is still a government, and Liechtenstein has been traditionally a two-party state. The parties emerged in the 1918 election after some changes were made to the constitution. These were the Progressive Citizens’ Party (FBP) and Christian-Social People’s Party (CSVP). The FBP was considered more conservative, the CSVP more liberal. During the 1930s, the Nazi movement rose not just in Germany, but in other European countries as well. The Liechtenstein Homeland Service (LHD) was the manifestation of this, but merged with the CSVP to form the Patriotic Union in 1936, and its members were co-opted and the FBP and VU resisted Nazism from taking root. A two-party system remained after the war in a pure form, and it took until 1986 for the Free List (FL) to run, emulating the green movement taking off in Europe in the 1980s that would join the canon of European political movements (along with far-left, social democrats, liberals, conservatives, far-right) in the decades to come. They won seats for the first time in the election of February 1993. In 2013, as the right-wing populist movement spread through Europe, The Independents (DU, German for ‘You’) won seats for the first time. They basically got replaced by Democrats for Liechtenstein due to intra-party drama regarding the expulsion of a member, and in the 2021 election DpL was in and DU was out. After that election, where a single person’s vote made the difference between the VU and FBP winning, a VU-FBP grand coalition was formed, with the VU’s Daniel Risch Prime Minister: the VU and FBP have ten seats each, the FL three, and DpL two. The next election is in 2025, and could have looked very different if this DpL proposal went through.
Being in tiny Liechtenstein, the DpL is one of the smallest of Europe’s right-wing populist movements, but is still a significant part of the country’s political scene Liechtenstein’s voters are generally quite conservative, keeping the monarchy, and mostly voting against ‘progressive’ changes in referendums. However, they are also not incline to radical changes in general, even if they are proposed by the right wing. This was a strong rejection for the DpL’s suggestion, which would have hurt party politicians but helped celebrity maverick candidates, perhaps the type that may be attracted to the DpL. The current parliamentary system remains in place for next year’s election, but the referendums continue with a hospital debated in June.
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April: Slovakia, South Korea, India among countries voting
2024 has been dubbed the “year of elections” by many media an academic sources. It is a year in which 40% of the global population is able to vote for their government. This does not include the inevitable countries where a snap election will be held, local elections, referendums, and by-elections. April shows no sign of slowing down.
On 2 April, Pakistan held Senate elections. The country has had a bumpy road since independence from the UK in 1947. A number of military coups were held, but the latest saw democracy restored in 2002. A multi-party system has emerged in Pakistan, with three main parties: the centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N, the N stands for its founder, Nawaz Sharif); the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and the centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, Pakistan Movement for Justice), which is based on the populist authority of cricketing legend Imran Khan. After the 2018 election to the National Assembly (lower house), no party won a majority but Khan formed a government. In 2022, Khan was removed following a vote of no confidence. In response, Khan produced a diplomatic cable from the US, which criticised Khan for visiting Russia, stated that it would isolate him from the US and Europe, but this was personally linked with Khan rather than Pakistan as a whole, and that “all would be forgiven” should Pakistan change its leader. This riled up his supporters that viewed his removal as a US-backed coup, but also breached state secrets legislation, and started legal proceedings against him. Further charges for corruption were seen as politically motivated by supporters, as was another conviction for an un-Islamic marriage. Since then, the PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif has served as Prime Minister with support from the PPP. The brother of Nawaz Sharif, who was banned for his own corruption charges and then fled to the UK on supposed medical grounds, Shehbaz’s brother was allowed to return since the Shehbaz premiership began, something in itself viewed as political. In 2024 general elections, the PTI couldn’t run as a party (only as independents) because of a failure to hold intra-party elections, another thing seen as a dirty trick by Khan’s supporters. Even so, the PTI were the largest party in 2024, but many of his supporters say they would have won bigger if not for interference. The Senate is the upper house, with half of the seats chosen every three years. They are elected from the provincial legislatures of Pakistan’s four provinces and the federal capital territory.
Shehbaz Sharif (PML-N), Prime Minister of Pakistan from 2022 to 2023 and again since 2024 On the same day, the American city of Anchorage held its mayoral election. The United States has a two-party system, with the Democratic Party (D) representing the liberal wing of American politics, and the Republican Party (R) more conservative. Though mayoral elections in Anchorage use a non-partisan system, the party affiliation of politicians is known. Incumbent Dave Bronson (R) is running for re-election. Considered a fierce conservative, he won narrowly against Democrat Forrest Dunbar in 2021. Independent Suzanne LaFrance, former chair of the city’s legislature, seemed to be his main opponent in this race. As early results come in, it looks likely Bronson and LaFrance will head to a runoff.
Dave Bronson (Republican), Mayor of Anchorage since 2021 On 4 April, Kuwait held general elections. Kuwait became a sheikhdom in 1752, and in 1899 decided to become a British protectorate to ward off the Ottoman Empire. This lasted until 1961, when the treaties ended, leading to full independence and the sheikh becoming the Emir of Kuwait. Elections for a Constitutional Convention were held that year, with the first regular elections in 1963. However, the parliament only has limited power. The Emir appoints the prime minister, who appoints a cabinet, meaning that power is vested in the royal house. After 1963, elections were held every four years until 1975. In 1976 the Emir Sabah Al-Salim Al-Sabah suspended the constitution and parliament, claiming it “acted against the nation”, and elections did not happen until 1981, by which time he had died. In 1985, elections were held again, but another suspension took place, this time by Emir Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah. Eventually, elections were held in 1990, but only for half of the body, amidst protests. In 1990, Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait, and the US stated that help would only come with the restoration of democracy. Thus, after the US liberated Kuwait in 1991, elections were held in 1992, with anti-government candidates performing well. Elections were held again in 1996, 1999, and 2003. In 2006 elections, women could vote for the first time. Though political parties are not legal in Kuwait, some quasi-party “political groups” started to emerge. This included the centre-left Popular Action Bloc. Elections were held again in 2008 and 2009; in the latter case, the parliament was dissolved because the govermnent had resigned to avoid questioning: this was supposedly “abuse of democracy” by the parliament to challenge a royal-backed administration like this. Elections were held in February 2012, but court declared them “invalid” because the old body should not have been dissolved, and held another one in December. These were also annulled, and elections were held again in 2013. Elections were held again in 2016, 2020, and 2022. However, the 2022 election was held again as the dissolution of the 2020 parliament was ruled invalid. This was seen by opposition as an attempt to stifle them, as they had criticised the government and forced some out in no-confidence votes. The opposition still won a majority. 41 of fifty members were not connected to any political group. This time, the body was dissolved because an MP “insulted the Emir”, Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who took the role in December following the death of his half-brother. The results showed nothing that would indicate an end to the dispute between parliament and Emir.
Mishal al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah (non-party), Emir of Kuwait since 2023 On the same day, Belarus held elections to its upper house, the Council of the Republic. Belarus was part of the Kievan Rus’ state from which both Russia and Belarus derive their name. However, this empire waned and by the thirteenth century, it was part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. In the Union of Krewo, the rulers of Lithuania and Poland were joined in marriage, and in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was formally founded, which Belarus was part of. However, in the eighteenth century its power waned and Russia took advantage, taking Belarus near the end of the century. After the communist revolution in Russia (1917), they signed an unequal treaty with Germany to exit World War I, losing Belarus. Both the Poles and Russians attempted to suppress the Belarusian language and assimilate it into their own, but in the nineteenth century Belarusian nationalism was sparked. A German puppet state, the Belarusian People’s Republic, was created, but then went into exile. After further developments, Belarus would be divided between Poland and Soviet Russia. Lithuania and “Belorussia” were part of the same republic, but Lithuania managed to win independence. It became the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (Byelorussian SSR), which joined the Soviet Union when it was created in 1922. The Soviet Union invaded Poland and took the rest of Belarus in 1939. After Germany’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union, Belarus was occupied until 1944. After the end of World War II, Poland took German lands, but the Soviet Union kept most of Byelorussia, giving it its current borders. The Soviet leadership encouraged Russian-speakers to move there, successfully attempting a decline in Belarusian national identity: even today, Russian is the most common language in Belarus, and the current government encourages Russification. Under Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union began to decline, and different ethnicities began fighting for independence, and an opposition, nationalist Belarusian Popular Front was tolerated. In 1991, strikes related to price increases spiralled, and by the end of the year, the country was independent, with the name Republic of Belarus. A presidential election was held in 1994. It was won easily by independent Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko had made a name for himself as an anti-corruption crusader, and as a populist. He promoted the Russian language, close links with Russia, and changed the state symbols back to those resembling Soviet-era ones. Another referendum in 1996 further gave Lukashenko initiative. By the time of the next presidential election in 2001 (which was extended) by the referendum, he had pretty undisputed power. He won over 80% of the vote in every other election: in 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020. In 2020, he had a challenge to his rule as the popular opposition figure, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, accused him of cheating her out of a win, leading to mass protests. However, these were suppressed, and Tsikhanouskaya leads a sort of government-in-exile. Though Lukashenko was seen as pro-Russian, he also wanted to play the West off of Russia to an extent. However, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Belarus has been seen as little more than a client state of Russia by the West. A referendum three days after the invasion allowed Russian nuclear weapons to be placed inside Belarusian territory. Parliamentary elections in 2024 saw all seats won by pro-government candidates, and these indirect elections were the same. Lukashenko will try to tighten the state apparatus to avoid a repeat of the protests when he runs again in 2025.
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus since 1994 On 6 April, Slovakia held the second round of its presidential election. When Czechoslovakia’s autocratic communist system was dying, different movements emerged in the Czech and Slovak parts of the federation, which then became political parties. The Slovak leader was Vladímir Mečiar, whose intransigence to the Czechs was key for Slovakia getting independence. He became Slovakia’s first Prime Minister, and was accused of corruption, and even autocracy in his time. He was defeated by a large coalition of opposition parties in 1998, which lasted until 2006, when Robert Fico of the Direction – Social Democracy (or Smer in Slovak) won the election. Though pretty much every country in the EU has a party like this, using a red colour, a rose in its logo, and a name like “Labour”, “Social Democrats”, or “Socialist”; which were all basically the same be they in Norway or Portugal, this party was suspended from the Party of European Socialists (PES) after going into coalition with the hard-right Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS). Fico was removed after a large coalition was needed to do in 2010, but this only lasted until 2012, when Smer won a majority. In 2016, he lost his majority and was forced into coalition with the SNS again. Fico lasted until 2018, when a journalist, Ján Kuciak was murdered whilst looking for Slovak connections with the Italian mafia. This led to huge protests and Fico resigned, with his deputy Peter Pellegrini replacing him. Fico was considered a social conservative and populist despite his party’s red (or at least pink) name. The anti-corruption and broadly conservative Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) party won in 2020, but they had a bumpy ride as well and new elections were needed in 2023. By then, Pellegrini had split from Smer, forming his own party, known as Voice – Social Democracy (or Hlas). This was meant to be a more pro-European alternative to Smer, although it still was reluctant to adopt social liberalism in Slovakia. This allowed Smer to be taken over by Fico again, and become even more socially conservative, pro-Russian, and taking a similar line to Hungary regarding the European Union: not threatening to leave, but simulataneously critical. He is also populist in style and a large critic of the media. With OĽaNO thumped in the election, Smer became the largest party, and joined coalition with Hlas and the SNS, allowing Fico to become Prime Minister again. Pellegrini became Speaker, and both Smer and Hlas were suspended from PES; the parties began to appear pretty indistinguishable. The main opposition was in the form of Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal party in both economic and cultural senses of the word. It was PS politician Zuzana Čaputová who was elected President in 2019, defeating Smer-backed Maroš Šefčovič. Šefčovič basically ran a conservative campaign in that race. Čaputová did not run again, and two candidates reached a runoff. Peter Pellegrini, running with Smer and Hlas’ endorsement, won 37.0%, and came second. The opposition selected Ivan Korčok, an independent diplomat who was Minister of Foreign Affairs, and won 42.5%. Štefan Harabin, a former judge considered to be on the right but without party, won 11.7%. Most of these votes were thought to go to Pellegrini, who is expected to win in the second round. However, polls tightened in the days before the election. This led to a closer race, but Pellegrini still won with 53.1% of the vote, helping the government’s power.
Zuzana Čaputová (independent), President of Slovakia since 2019 On 7 April, Poland held the first round of local elections. Poland, like Czechoslovakia, was part of the Warsaw Pact of the Soviet Union and the latter’s satellite states. All had a one-party system led by a communist party. Poland’s Solidarity Movement began as an independent trade union, apart from the government. This spearheaded the opposition to communist rule, and partially-fair elections were allowed in 1989, where the union’s political movement, the Solidarity Citizens’ Committee or KO “S”, won nearly every contested seat. The communist system ended when the communist satellite parties broke and backed the KO “S”, allowing a non-communist government to be formed. The communist party had basically disappeared by the time the 1990 presidential election was held, which was won by veteran solidarity leader Lech Wałęsa. Howver, Poland would become a parliamentary country, albeit with a stronger presidency than many similar countries in Europe (including Slovakia): in part because such a popular figure had that office. The first election in 1991 saw a very splintered parliament with 29 parties winning seats. The liberal wing of the KO “S” under Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki had split into the Democratic Union, which won the most seats. Meanwhile, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) emerged as a coalition of the left, and many ex-communists. Ten parties even won double-figure totals including the right-wing Catholic Electoral Action (WAK), and the agrarian centrist Polish People’s Party (PSL): the rump of the KO “S” came ninth. This messy situation led to three Prime Ministers before another election was held in 1993. This time a tough threshold was introduced of 5% for parties and 8% for coalitions, and only seven won seats: the SLD, the PSL, the Democratic Union, the centre-left Labour Union, the right-wing Confederation of Independent Poland, the centre-right Nonpartisan Bloc In Support of Reforms (BBWR), and the German Minority Electoral Committee. An SLD-PSL government was formed in this time, although there were still three PMs because of squabbling between the two. In 1997, a number of parties coalesced around the Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) coalition, which won the election. The agrarian-socialist coalition was damaged, as even though the SLD held mostly firm, the PSL got battered. The centrist Freedom Union, which succeeded the Democratic Union (UW), the conservative Movement for the Reconstruction of Poland (ROP), and the German Minority also won seats. This led to an unbroken four-year term in office for Jerzy Buzek in an AWS-UW coalition. The next election was in 2001, by which time people had had enough of the AWS following a difficult period. An SLD-Labour Union alliance won the most seats, with the Civic Platform (PO) emerging as the main opposition, being a liberal, centre-right split from existing parties. The more populist left Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland (SRP) party came third ahead of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS), which split from the AWS. It was the brainchild of the Kaczyński brothers, Lech and Jarosław; the former being Justice Minister in the Buzek government. The PSL, the right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR), and the German minority also won seats, but the AWS lost all 201 seats in parliament. The agrarian-left coalition was revived. In 2005, the SLD was smashed and came fourth. PiS were top ahead of the PO and SRP. The LPR, PSL, and German Minority also won seats. Also that year, Lech Kaczyński became President, beating PO leader Donald Tusk in a runoff. Jarosław Kaczyński became Prime Minister in 2006, thus creating a sibling duo of President and PM. However, their coalition with the SRP and LPR was broken in 2007 when the SRP leader was linked with corruption. In the resulting election, the PO beat PiS. The Left and Democrats (LiD) which included the SLD, the PSL, and the German Minority also won seats. Donald Tusk became PM in a PO-PSL coalition, and served a stable term until 2011. In 2010, a plane crash in Russia killed 96 people including Lech Kaczyński. Thus, Jarosław Kaczyński ran for president instead of his brother, but lost to PO candidate Bronisław Komorowski. In 2011, Tusk was re-elected (something that had pretty much never happened since the return of democracy), with the PO ahead of the PiS again. Palikot’s Movement (RP), a more left-liberal party created by a PO splitter, was third, with the PSL, SLD, and German Minority also winning seats. Tusk left to become President of the European Council in 2014. However, in 2015 President Komoroswki lost to PiS’s Andrzej Duda. The general election saw PiS win a majority, ahead of PO. The other parties to win seats were the right-wing Kukiz’15, (named after its leader Paweł Kukiz), the centrist Modern, the PSL, and the German Minority: not a single left-wing party won a seat. After this, Jarosław Kaczyński would not become PM, but prefer to run things as PiS leader. Beata Szydło became PM, but was removed in 2017 simply because she lost Kaczyński’s confidence. This was due to the fact that relations with other EU countries, and the EU itself declined in her tenure. The PiS government was strongly criticised in Brussels because of certain illiberal moves: especially the negating of the independence of the judiciary, and the neutrality of the public television station. Mateusz Morawiecki became PM in 2017. In 2019, PiS’ United Right coalition won another majority: this consisted of PiS, the far-right United Poland, the centre-right Agreement, and some independents and smaller parties. PO led a “Civic Coalition” (KO), with Modern and other small parties, but this flopped and came second. The Left coalition won some representation, with the SLD, centre-left liberal Spring, and others winning seats, while the PSL-led Polish Coalition came fourth. The Confederation Liberty and Independence, which mixed right-wing populism and libertarianism, came fifth, with the last seat going to the German Minority. This did set in stone the main five parties in poland: PiS and the Confederation on the “right”, and the PO, Left, and PSL on the “opposition” (which can hardly be called the “left”, but may be called the liberal or progressive camp). In 2020 Duda was narrowly re-elected against the KO’s Rafał Trzaskowski. As time went on, Poland’s opposition began to view their position as fighting for democracy itself, while PiS and the state media talked about them defending Poland from hostile forces in the EU, media, and global elites (like Fico’s Slovakia and Hungary, PiS did not want Poland to leave the EU but frequently clashed with Brussels). In 2021, the Agreement left the coalition, costing them their majority. The United Right coalition, including PiS, the renamed Sovereign Poland (formerly United Poland), and Kukiz’15 still came first, but were dented in 2023. The KO, mostly of the PO but other smaller parties like Modern, were second. The PSL formed an alliance with the new liberal Poland 2050 party called the Third Way (TD) which came third. The SLD and Spring merged into the New Left, which alongside the Left Together party formed The Left coalition which came fourth. The Confederation and its ally, the right-wing New Hope, were fifth. KO, TD, and The Left formed a coalition, with the returning Donald Tusk as PM, despite Duda trying to delay this. Duda has proved a thorn in the Tusk government’s side, trying to block a number of bills. Notably, Tusk’s government removed most figures associated with the state televsion company, despite an attempt from old figures and PiS politicians to occupy the building, now suddenly concerned with media fairness, which had been the cry of the opposition to them for the last eight years. It is this messy situation in which these elections, last held in 2018, take place. It is the first test for the Tusk administration, with all sub-national bodies and mayoralties being elected. Independents normally hoover up a lot of seats here, and the PSL do better than national elections. In the end, it was a pretty good day for PiS, but the government held on to the main urban centres. In rural areas, PiS did a good job of mobilising voters.
Donald Tusk (PO), Prime Minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014 and again since 2023 On 10 April, South Korea held parliamentary elections. Korea had traditionally been a kingdom of its own and was known as a “hermit kingdom” thanks to its isolationism, although this waned as influence was fought over by great powers. After the Japanese victory in the Russo-Japanese War, Japan quickly moved to make Korea a protectorate in 1905, and then in 1910 a part of Japan. However, after the defeat of Japan in World War II, Korea was divided into Soviet (northern) and American (southern) areas, before a negotiation for a new government would be created. However, the Soviet Union refused to let the UN team into northern areas to hold elections, and so the new UN-backed government only ruled in the former American area. Instead, in the Soviet area, different elections were held with a communist autocratic government. After a stalemate in the Korean War, both sides continued to consider themselves the sole government of all of Korea (although North Korea dropped their goal of peaceful unification in 2024), but the Republic of Korea in practice only controls South Korea, and always has. The US military elections of 1946 were the first held in what would become South Korea, and then the 1948 Constitutional Assembly elections. That year, nearly half of the seats were taken by independents, but the conservative National Association for the Rapid Realisation of Korean Independence (NARRKI) won the most seats of any party, with the liberal bourgeois (that is to say, of the traditional landed gentry, and in practice right-wing) Korea Democratic Party (KDP) second. NARRKI leader Syngman Rhee was named President by the body, and the Republic of Korea was proclaimed. In 1950, the KDP had merged to form the Democratic Nationalist Party (DNP), and they and the Korea Nationalist Party (KNP), which was inspired by the Chinese nationalist government on Taiwan, won the most seats, followed by NARRKI, who after independence had become simply the National Association. Realising he would lose an indirect election, Rhee passed a constitutional amendment under duress to make the 1952 election direct. He merged NARRKI with some other organisations, including the far-right, to form the Liberal Party (liberal here basically meant anti-communist and little else). However, the far-right influence soon was dropped, and he ruled as a conservative autocrat, winning the election with 74.6% support. In 1954, the Liberal Party won a majority, with most other seats going to independents, but the DNP, National Association (which stayed extant despite the formation of the Liberal Party), and KNP won seats. Rhee defeated Cho Bong-am, a liberal independent, in 1956, but Cho’s 30.0% was a surprise; in 1959 he was executed for espionage. The DNP became the Democratic Party in 1955, a liberal conservative reformist party. The Liberals won a majority in 1958, with the Democrats the main opposition. In March 1960, Rhee had gotten a constitutional amendment passed to exempt himself from term limits, and his Democratic opponent died a month before the election. However, the Democrats had momentum in the vice-presidential election, and when official results showed their candidate Chang Myon on just 17.5%, protests erupted, especially when a young protester’s body was discovered. The police were ordered to shoot, and this only caused further protests. Eventually they lowered their weapons and Rhee had no recourse but to resign. The Democrats won a landslide in the election, and the parliament elected Democratic leader Yun Posun as president. A parliamentary system was established, with Chang Myon as PM. However, instability in this led to a military coup led by General Park Chung Hee, Chairman of the Supreme Council for National Reconstruction. In 1963, the constitutional order was restored, but the only difference was Park ruling as a civilian dictator instead of a military one (under American pressure to cut off aid if he did not). He formed a Democratic Republican Party (DRP), while his opponents formed the Civil Rule Party (CRP). Park narrowly beat Yun (46.7% to 45.1%) in presidential elections in 1963, but easily beat the CRP in legislative elections, both of which had the regime’s finger on the scale. By the next set in 1967, the CRP had merged into the New Democratic Party (NDP). Park beat Yun again, and the DRP won a majority again. In 1971, Park beat NDP candidate Kim Dae-jung, and Kim still managed to get over 45% of the vote. The NDP also made gains in parliamentary elections. Park was threatened, and in 1972 launched a self-coup called the October Restoration. Among changes were an electoral college with no parties, and all of those elected voted for Park. A third of the seats in parliament were also elected by the college after being chosen by the President, though DRP and NDP members were also elected. Park was assassinated in 1979 by a close confidant, and his Prime Minister Choi Kyu-hah was elected to finish his term. However, the military leader Chun Doo-Hwan took control in a coup, and another coup months later by the same led to Chun being elected President unanimously. He allowed political parties for the 1981 election, forming his own Democratic Justice Party (DJP), while liberals formed the Democratic Korea Party (DKP). Chun was re-elected president by a DJP-dominated Electoral College, while the DJP beat the DKP to a majority in parliamentary elections in 1981. In 1985, the DJP won another majority. The New Korean Democratic Party (NKDP), who viewed the DKP as merely a satellite and themselves as the “true opposition”, beat the DKP to second. Mass protests began in 1987 and brought about fair elections later that year. However, the DJP candidate Roh Tae-woo still won, with the opposition split between veteran opposition leader Kim Young-sam from the Reunification Democratic Party (RDP), and Kim Dae-jung, who formed the Peace Democratic Party (PDP). The conservative, pro-Park New Democatic Republican Party came fourth. In 1988, the DJP won general elections ahead of those three, with the PDP the largest opposition. The DJP then merged with the RDP and New Democratic Republican Party to form the Democratic Liberal Party (DLP). The PDP renamed and then merged to form the Democratic Party. The DLP lost the majority it had gained through mergers in 1992, but still beat the Democrats. The DLP candidate in 1992 was Kim Young-sam, once of the opposition, and he beat the Democrat Kim Dae-jung. Businessman Chung Ju-yung also ran a strong third party campaign from the centre-right Unification National Party. In 1996, the DLP (which had renamed itself to the New Korea Party or NKP) came first again. Kim Dae-jung had retired, but then came back and formed his own National Congress for New Politics (NCNP). The right-wing United Liberal Democrats (ULD) beat the official Democrats (who had merged into the United Democratic Party). The NKP then merged with the United Democrats to form the Grand National Party (GNP). However, their candidate Lee Hoi-chang lost to the NCNP’s Kim Dae-jung, who finally won over 25 years since his first crack at the top job. Former judge Lee In-je had a strong third-party bid. In 2000 parliament was split, with the GNP beating the Alliance of DJP: a coalition between the NCNP merger known as the Millenium Democratic Party (MDP) and the United Liberal Democrats (DJP were the leaders’ initials). The GNP was ahead by just one seat. However, in 2002, the MDP’s Roh Moo-hyun still beat the GNP candidate Lee Hoi-chang. Roh left the MDP to form the Uri Party (Our Party), for which the GNP and MDP tried to impeach him. However, this meant in 2004 the MDP lost nearly all support, with the Uri Party winning a majority and the GNP in opposition. In 2007, GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak won the presidency easily, with the Uri Party having become the Grand Unified Democratic New Party (GUDNP) and saw their candidate Chung Dong-young under perform. Lee Hoi-chang ran as an independent this time but still performed well in third. In 2008, the GNP won a majority. The GUDNP had merged into the Democratic Party, which lost seats and became the opposition. In 2012, the GNP renamed to the Saenuri Party (New Frontier Party). The Democratic Party merged with a small party to become the Democratic United Party (DUP). Saenuri won a majority, but the DUP made gains. In the presidential election, Saenuri candidate Park Geun-hye, daughter of Park Chung Hee, narrowly beat DUP candidate Moon Jae-in. The DUP had renamed, merged, and renamed again to form the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which won the most seats in 2016 elections, with one more than Saenuri. The centrist People Party also did well in third. In 2016, Park was impeached, and in 2017, removed for abuse of power and corruption. The election saw the DPK’s Moon easily beat Saenuri (which was renamed the Liberty Korea Party or LKP) candidate Hong Joon-pyo and People Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. A new system was introduced for the 2020 parliamentary election, which was meant to help smaller parties. However, the big two parties got around this by introducing satellite parties. The DPK and its satellite Platform Party won a majority. The LKP had merged to form the United Future Party (UFP), which was the opposition along with its satellite Future Korea Party. The UFP then renamed itself the People Power Party (PPP). In 2022, PPP candidate Yoon Suk Yeol narrowly beat the DPK’s Lee Jae-myung. At the time, there was some dissatisfaction with the DPK. Notably, the PPP had managed to tap into rising anti-feminist sentiment amongst young men in the country, while the DPK’s own credentials were rocked by accusations that the DPK Mayors of Seoul and Busan had been accused of sexual harrassment, leading to by-elections where the PPP won big. Yoon’s approval ratings took a hit due to inflation but are currently pretty decent, hovering between 35% and 40%. The DPK are still ahead of the PPP in the constituency vote for the election. For the proportional vote, the satellite parties are being used: for the DKP the Democratic Alliance of Korea (DAK), and for the PPP, the People Future Party (PFP). Controversial progressive former Justice Minister Cho Kuk has formed his own party, the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP). This is only going to contest the proportional seats (of which there are far less than constituencies), where it is expected to be the main opposition to the PFP, with the DAK taking a backseat. This election was a big test for the PPP and Yoon, and a chance for both them and the opposition to get some momentum, but the next presidential election is not until 2027. In the end, the DPK won a big majority, and also came second ahead of the RKP for the PR vote. The PPP was in gloomy moods at the end of the election night, while the DPK and RKP went on the attack.
Yoon Suk Yeol (PPP), President of South Korea since 2022 On 13 April, the Australian constituency of Cook held a by-election. Australia started with three parties, the left-of-centre Labor Party, and the Protectionist and Free Trade Parties. These merged to form the Liberal Party, and then after a series of mergers, splits, and rebranding, finished at the Liberal name again. In rural areas, they are joined in Coalition (and sometimes competition) with the National Party. The Coalition is the main conservative force compared to Labor, a social democratic party. Cook is in the state of New South Wales, having been created as a safe Liberal seat in 1969, the year John Gorton’s Coalition narrowly held on to their majority. Don Dobie was elected as Liberal MP with a big swing to Labor, and in 1972, Gough Whitlam’s victory, Dobie lost narrowly to Labor’s Ray Thorburn. Thorburn just beat Dobie in a 1974 rematch as Whitlam won another majority, but in 1975’s Coalition landslide under Malcolm Fraser, Dobie beat Thoburn easily with an 8.3% swing. Fraser won another landslide in 1977 and Dobie beat Thoburn easily again, and though Fraser’s majority was reduced in 1980, Dobie again beat Thoburn with ease. In 1983, Bob Hawke’s Labor won a landslide, but Dobie survived a 5% swing against him. In 1984, despite an even bigger Labor landslide, Dobie won back most of the ground he lost the year previous. An even bigger landslide in 1987 still saw Dobie win easily. In 1990, Hawke’s Labor won again easily, but Dobie increased his own share. In 1993, Labor under Paul Keating won again but Dobie survived a swing against him comfortably. Dobie retired for the 1996 election, but Liberal Stephen Mutch won easily as the party won a landslide under John Howard. Mutch was defeated in Liberal preselection for the 1998 election by Bruce Baird, who won the seat easily as Howard won a big majority. In 2001, Howard’s Coalition won again and Baird held on easily. Howard increased his majority again in 2004, and Baird won easily again. Even in Labor’s landslide win over Kevin Rudd in 2007, Liberal Scott Morrison easily won re-election (although there was a nearly 7% swing against him). Morrison had worked for the Liberals but left the party temporarily to become managing director of the national tourism agency. However, he returned and won the seat in 2007. Labor lost their majority in 2010, although Julia Gillard managed to win enough support. Morrison won with a 6.3% swing. In 2013, the Coalition under Tony Abbott won a landslide, with Morrison winning over 60% of the primary vote. Morrison was named Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, and then in 2014 reshuffled as Minister of Social Services. Growing in popularity, when Abbott was defeated by Malcolm Turnbull in a leadership spill, the latter appointed Morrison Treasurer. In 2016, Turnbull narrowly won another majority, and Morrison easily held on to Cook. However, Liberal vultures began to surround Turnbull. In 2018, Turnbull pre-empted a challenge by calling a leadership spill on himself, where he beat right-wing hardliner Peter Dutton. However, this gave impetus to some who initially stood by Turnbull. Thus, another leadership spill was called. Turnbull was considered a moderate, and both Dutton and ‘continuity candidate’ Julie Bishop ran. Thus, Morrison could emerge between the two as a compromise candidate, and won. He became Prime Minister. In 2019, despite naysaying polls, he led the Coalition to another majority. However, his second term was tumultuous, with bushfires giving momentum to left-wing critics of climate change. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic was reviewed mostly positively, but he was criticised for mishandling of sexual misconduct allegations towards Coalition politicians. This led to the Liberals losing ground in suburban seats, and the general idea that they had a ‘woman problem’. The ‘teal independents’ (a combination of green and Liberal blue) rose in popularity, being mostly female candidates in suburban Liberal seats, while the National vote held up in rural areas. This led to Labor under Anthony Albanese winning a majority. Morrison held onto Cook easily, but his power was gone: he resigned as Liberal leader, replaced by Dutton, and scandal broke out that he had secretly sworn himself in to several ministerial positions as PM. He is now retiring from politics, but this by-election will change little. The Liberals have won every election here since 1975, and Labor have announced they are not bothering with a candidate. Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy was considered a shoo-in for this seat, and so he was, easily beating the Green Party’s Martin Moore.
Scott Morrison (Liberal), MP for Cook from 2007 to 2024 On 15 April, the Canadian provincial constituency of Fogo Island-Cape Freels in Newfoundland and Labrador will have a provincial by-election. Canada has a two-party system, with the Liberal Party and Conservative Party, since federation. The Conservatives renamed themselves the Progressive Conservatives, and have been joined by two third parties: the New Democratic Party (NDP), to the left of the liberals, and the Quebec separatist Bloc Québécois (Quebecer Bloc). In the 1993 federal election, the Progressive Conservative lost votes to the Reform Party of Canada, which then became the Canadian Alliance. After a while, it became clear that having two conservative parties would lead to perpetual Liberal victory, so the two merged into the Conservative Party of Canada. However, the Reform Party was a mostly western phenomenon, and in Newfoundland and Labrador the old Progressive Conservative name survives. In the last provinical election, the incumbent Liberals won a majority. The Progressive Conservatives were in power from 2003 to 2015, but lost that year to the Liberals of Dwight Ball in a landslide. In 2019, Ball’s Liberals were reduced to a minority. Ball resigned in 2020 amidst accusations of cronyism. His replacement was Andrew Furey, who won a majority in 2021. The Progressive Conservatives are still the main opposition, with the NDP and a few independents picking up the remaining handful of seats. PC leader Ches Crosbie resigned, and in 2023 Tony Wakeham was elected leader. However, it was a difficult start as interim leader David Brazil resigned, and the Liberals gained the seat in a by-election. This election was caused by the death of Liberal MHA Derrick Bragg, and is a safe Liberal seat, meaning Liberal candidate Dana Blackmore should easily beat rivals Jim McKenna (PC) and Jim Gill (NDP). The seat was created in 2015, and always won by Bragg with relative ease, although it was a bit closer in 2019. In 2021, Bragg got 61.1%, the PC candidate 36.6%, and Gill 2.3%. The federal Liberals are currently unpopular, and so the provinical Liberals have gone with a new branding which has the name FUREY in big letters and the words “Newfoundland & Labrador Liberals” in small font below.
Derrick Bragg (Liberal), MHA for Fogo Island-Cape Freels from 2015 to 2024 On 17 April, Croatia will hold parliamentary elections. Croatia had been an independent country and part of another country in various points in its history. A Duchy of Croatia emerged in the seventh century, which became a kingdom in the tenth. After a succession crisis, in 1102 there was a union of the crowns with Hungary. The Hungarian crown itself was united with the Austrian one in 1526. In 1868 it merged with Slavonia, but remained part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Austro-Hungarian Empire fell apart after defeat in World War I and Croatia-Slavonia merged into the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes: Yugoslavia. Elections were held in Yugoslavia, with a multi-party system at this stage which was mostly non-ethnic. A shooting in parliament led to parliament being prorogued by King Alexander I, who formally renamed the country Yugoslavia, hitherto just a nickname. He established a royal one-party dictatorship under the Yugoslav Radical Peasants’ Democracy party. This was known as the 6 January Dictatorship. This was seen not just as an infringement of political rights, but ethnic dominance of a Serb over Croats and Slovenes. Croatian nationalist sentiment began to rise in the form of the Ustaše (uprisers). Alexander was assassinated by Bulgarian revolutionaries with Ustaše support in 1934. As time went on, fascist Germany and Italy were harboring expansionist aims, so Prince Paul (regent for the minor King Peter II) signed the Tripartite pact with Germany, Italy, Japan, Hungary, Romania, puppet Slovakia, and Bulgaria; this made Yugoslavia formally part of the ‘Axis’. By now, Germany was at war with the UK. Mass anti-Axis, pro-British protests ocurred, with a significant part being made up by the Communist Party. A coup removed Prince Paul and restored Peter II’s power. Though British and perhaps Soviet intelligence was involved, much of it came from Yugoslavia and there were more pro-coup and pro-British demonstrations in the streets after it happened. However, the Axis soon invaded and occupied Yugoslavia. Puppet regimes were set up, in Croatia, the Independent State of Croatia. It was in fact a joint Italian-German puppet state until 1943 and Italy’s capitulation, when it became solely a German puppet (at this point, what remained of fascist Italy also became a German puppet). The Ustaše became the puppet government. The largest political legacy of this time was the impetus it provided to the communists. With Soviet backing, communists became the largest faction of the “partisans”, the Yugoslav armed resistance against the fascists. The government-in-exile, Democratic Federal Yugoslavia, was dominated by the communist Josip Broz Tito. When elections happened in 1945, they had their thumb on the scale and the opposition boycotted. Though Yugoslavia became a one-party communist state, it was not a Soviet puppet at any point, as Tito had won power himself rather than been given it through post-war treaties. The Communist Party of Yugoslavia (later the League of Communists of Yugoslavia (SKJ)) became the sole party, abolished the monarchy, and renamed the country the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. In 1948, Tito split from their main ally the Soviet Union, and pro-Soviets were purged. The party became the League of Communists, and the People’s Front the “Socialist Alliance of Working People”. Ethnic tension never went away, and the country remained federal. In 1971, the Croatian Spring saw the Croatian branch take nationalist reforms. Though Tito forced them to resign, the reforms stayed in tact. After Tito’s 1980 death, Yugoslavia remained a one-party state but lost its clear leader: instead of rotating presidency of the different ethnicities emerged. At the same time, communism was falling apart in Europe. In 1990, the Croatian SKJ branch, the League of Communists of Croatia (SKH) declared that the next election (to Croatia’s parliament) would be free and fair. The Croatian and Slovene branches then left the SKJ, and the Croatian one tried to paint itself as the bringer of reform by adding the subtitle “Party of Democratic Changes” (becoming the SKH-SDP). However, the SKH-SDP lost the election to the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). It was led by Franjo Tuđman, a key figure in the Croatian Spring, who became President. The new HDZ government would remove communist national symbols, including renaming the region the Republic of Croatia. In 1991, an independence referendum was held, which passed with 93.2% support. The first elections in the current, independent Croatian state were in 1992. However, the country was not unified, as the Serb minority were against independence. Every part of Yugoslavia apart from Serbia and Montenegro had declared independence, and the Serbs in Croatia wanted to stay with the new Serbian state. They created a Republic of Serbian Krajina, which was unrecognised but functioned in large parts of Croatia for years. In the election, the HDZ won easily, with the nearest opposition on just fourteen seats. A 1995 offensive ended the Republic of Serbian Krajina, reunifying Croatia (a process that formally ended in 1998). Under this wave, Tuđman’s HDZ won another majority, with still no one opposition party doing well. However, he was beginning to rule illiberally: when the opposition won mayoral elections in the capital Zagreb, he refused to confirm their mayor, and appointed an ally as interim mayor. He also suppressed free media and turned state media into propaganda unlike that in Yugoslavia. When Tuđman died in 1999, much of his powers were transferred to the premiership, and the presidency became less powerful. Meanwhile, the SKH-SDP had dropped the SKH part, and then changed the acronym SDP to mean Social Democratic Party, which merged with another party to become the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. They had been one of the opposition forces to Tuđman, but nothing more than that. However, before the 2000 election, they joined with the centre-right Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) and two small regionalist parties, and won close to a majority. The HDZ was finally defeated, and another five-party coalition led by the liberal farmers’ Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) was third. They joined in coalition with the SDP, HSLS and others to form a supermajority that cemented a parliamentary system under SDP Prime Minister Ivica Račan. No single party would win a majority ever again. In 2003, the HDZ won the most seats, with the SDP’s coalition with three other parties in second, and the HSS and HSLS making big losses. The HDZ’s Ivo Sanader managed to become PM. In 2007, a two party system was cemented, as the HDZ stayed in the lead and the SDP made gains. Sanader stayed in power, but retired abruptly in 2009, and was soon jailed for huge corruption (he is still in prison to this day). His deputy Jadranka Kosor became PM, but the HDZ coalition lost the 2011 election to the SDP-led “Kukuriku Coalition” (named after the restaurant where it was formed, can be translated as Cock-a-doodle-doo in English). The SDP’s Zoran Milanović became PM. In 2015, the SDP’s Croatia is Growing coalition lost to the HDZ’s Patriotic Coalition, but neither won a majority. The conservative Bridge of Independent Lists came third. A HDZ-Bridge coalition was formed with independent Tihomir Orešković becoming PM. However, in 2016, the HDZ voted their own government down to try and get a better position. Little changed in the arithmetic between the HDZ coalition and the SDP’s People’s Coalition. HDZ leader Andrej Plenković became PM. In 2020, Plenković’s HDZ coalition defeated the SDP-led Restart Coalition again, although still without a majority, staying over the line thanks to the support of the reserved national minority seats. The right-wing nationalist coalition of Miroslav Škoro Homeland Movement (DPMŠ), named after its leader, came third. However, the SDP did score a win in 2020 when Zoran Milanović defeated HDZ incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović in the presidential election. Plenković leads the HDZ coalition of five parties, while the SDP’s coalition is named Rivers of Justice. Milanović wants to run as an SDP candidate, but could not unless he resigns the presidency. Instead, their main candidate is SDP leader Peđa Grbin. Other coalitions will be led by the Homeland Movement and the Bridge. Also, an SDP split, known simply as the Social Democrats, have been founded and will lead the Our Croatia list, but though this took a lot of MPs, it seems to lack momentum. The HDZ seem to be ahead still, and Plenković will help to build a third term once the vote is done.
Andrej Plenković (HDZ), Prime Minister of Croatia since 2016 On the same day, the Solomon Islands will hold general elections. The Islands became a British protectorate in 1893 following negotiations with Germany, who also had a presence in the area. Self-governance of any form did not come until 1960, when a Legislative Council was introduced, but even then few members were Islanders and none were elected. A new constitution came in 1964, with elections in 1965. Eight of 22 members of the Council would be elected, but only one directly in Honiara, with the rest being chosen indirectly by councillors. By 1967 fourteen of 29 were elected, and thirteen directly, with only the Eastern Outer Islands having the indirect method. In 1970, the Legislative Council was abolished and replaced by a Governing Council. A majority of seats were now elected. In 1973, the remaining indirectly elected seat was abolished. After this election, political parties began to emerge out of MPs, with the United Solomon Islands Party (USIP) and People’s Progressive Party (PPP). A new constitution in 1974 renamed the Governing Council the Legislative Assembly, and the PPP’s Solomon Mamaloni became Chief Minister. The PPP and USIP pretty much died after the 1976 election, where the Independent Group’s Peter Kenilorea became Chief Minister. In 1978, the Solomon Islands became independent, and Kenilorea Prime Minister. The first election as independent country to the renamed National Parliament was in 1980. Kenilorea formed a Solomon Islands United Party (SIUP), with what was left of the PPP merging to form the People’s Alliance Party (PAP). The SIUP beat the PAP, but had no majority thanks to a large amount of independents. However, Kenilorea formed an alliance with independent members and remained PM. However, Mamaloni, now of the PAP, became PM again in 1981. The SIUP won the most seats (one more than the PAP) in the 1984 election and managed an alliance to get Kenilorea back in. However, in 1986 he resigned due to an aid controversy and his deputy, independent Ezekiel Alebua took power. The 1989 election saw a landslide win for the PAP, and the SIUP joining the ranks for the minor parties. Mamaloni became PM again. However, Mamaloni then left the PAP, but remained as PM, dismissing PAP figures and putting opposition figures in their place. In 1993, the PAP lost to Mamaloni’s new SIGNUR (Solomon Islands Government of National Unity, Reconciliation, and Progress Party). However, SIGNUR did not get a majority and the opposition formed a National Coalition around Francis Billy Hilly. Mamaloni managed to win back power in 1994 through parliamentary arithmetic. In 1997, his Solomon Islands National Unity and Reconciliation Party (SINURP) won the most seats but narrowly lost power to a disparate coalition of various opposition parties. The Solomon Islands Liberal Party (SILP) won just four seats, but that party’s Bartholomew Ulufa’alu became PM. In 2000, he was kidnapped by the Malaita Eagle Force (MEF), a militant organisation of Malaitans. Malaitans had often migrated to other parts of the Solomon Islands, and ethnic tension broke out under Ulufa’alu’s government. The MEF accused Ulufa’alu of not doing enough to support Malaitans despite being one himself, and the price for his release was his resignation. He was replaced by Manasseh Sogavare, of the small People’s Progress Party (PPP). In 2001, the PAP finished ahead of the Association of Independent Members (AIM) and Liberal Party-led Solomon Islands Alliance for Change (SIAC). The PAP’s Allan Kemakeza became PM. In 2006, no party won more than four seats, with independents winning a majority. AIM independents elected Snyder Rini PM, but this led to riots in the country’s Chinatown, due to Islanders viewing him as too pro-Chinese. Australian and New Zealander peacekeeping forces were needed to stop the riots, and Rini was soon removed after just two weeks in office. Instead, Sogavare returned, this time representing the Solomon Islands Social Credit Party, who won two seats. However, in 2007, Sogavare was removed by opposition in a parliamentary vote. The SILP’s Derek Sikua then became PM until the next election, in 2010. Independents were still the largest group, but the Solomon Islands Democratic Party at least won twelve seats. The Reform Democratic Party (RDP)’s Danny Philip became PM. After several supporters defected, he resigned in 2011. A National Coalition for Reform and Advancement was formed, under Gordon Darcy Lilo. In 2014, independents were again the only large faction. One of them, Sogavare, became PM again. However, he lost parliamentary support in 2017, and Rick Houenipelwa of the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) became PM. In the 2019 election, eight parties won seats, but none won more than eight, and 21 of fifty seats were won by independents. Independent Sogavare formed a coalition with other independents and small parties, which he called the Democratic Coalition Government for Advancement (DCGA). This has stayed in power for the whole term, the first premiership to do so since Kemakeza’s in the 2001-2006 term. Sogavare then revived the Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR Party) which is contesting the elections. The weak party system means parliamentary arithmetic is crucial. Sogavare severed the Islands’ traditional relations with Taiwan in favour of China, which was very controversial and led to protests which turned violent, mostly by Malaitans. They needed Australian, Fijian, Papua New Guinean and New Zealander forces to help put the riots down. Sogavare survived this, and after the riots, they signed a security deal with China, which was even more controversial. This led to anger from the opposition and traditional diplomatic allies of the Islands such as the United States, Australia, and Japan. However, it did lead to a greater American presence, including a new embassy, perhaps showing a wiliness and ability to play the major powers against each other for favours from both. That said, the opposition wants to repeal the pact. The election was also controversially delayed by a year, with Sogavare’s official reasoning that it was impossible to hold this and the Pacific Games in the same year. Sogavare has now led a campaign of criticising democracy, which leads to “moral decline”, and praising the Chinese system instead.
Manasseh Sogavare (OUR Party), Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands from 2000 to 2001, 2006 to 2007, 2014 to 2017, and since 2019 On 19 April, India holds the first phase of its general election. Today’s India had been split into various kingdoms, and colonial powers also had an interest. A dominant force was the British East India Company. However, an uprising led to the Government of India Act 1858, which gave the UK direct rule over India in the British Raj (British Rule). Elections in the British Raj were held for the first time in 1920. However, a growing political force, the Indian National Congress (INC), was only interested in party politics as a secondary concern, instead leading protest movements for India’s independence. Elections were held delayed by World War II, and held again in 1945. The INC won a majority, but the All-India Muslim League (AIML) won most Muslim seats. This was a clear mandate for independence, but a dual independence: the Muslim countries became Pakistan (today’s Pakistan and Bangladesh), while the rest became India. The leader of the INC, Jawaharlal Nehru, was named Prime Minister of the interim government which led India to independence in 1947, and remained Prime Minister after that. Elections were not held again until 1951, spilling over to 1952. The INC won a landslide majority in this election. The same happened in 1957, and 1962. There were some opposition parties that did well in certain areas, but none had the national presence Congress did. Nehru continued as Prime Minister until his death in 1964. Lal Bahadur Shastri, who served in a number of ministerial roles, became PM, but died himself in 1966. After that, Shastri’s Information Minister (and Nehru’s son) Indira Gandhi became PM. The INC won another majority in 1967. In 1969, Gandhi was expelled from the INC for violating party discipline when she supported a non-INC candidate for President. However, much of the party went with her, forming a new Indian National Congress (R) (INC (R), the R stood for Requisition). The INC (R) won a landslide while the rump Indian National Congress (O) (INC (O), the O standing for Organisation) were routed. Gandhi was criticised for using state machinery to aid her election, and a case against her was heard in 1975: she was convicted and unseated. However, she declared a state of emergency instead, leading to a period known as The Emergency, allowing her to rule by decree and suspend civil liberties. This lasted until the 1977 elections, where the INC (R) lost to the Janata Party (JP, People’s Party) of Morarji Desai, an alliance of multiple parties including the INC (O). However, apart from opposition to Gandhi they had little in common and in 1979 the squabbling led to several politicians splitting. Charan Singh formed the Janata Party (Secular) or JP(S) with the support of Indira Gandhi, whose INC (R) became the INC (I): the I standing for Indira. However, Singh refused to drop Gandhi’s charges, so the INC (I) withdrew support, and elections were held again in 1980. The INC (I) won a big victory, with both the JP and JP(S) getting nowhere. Gandhi became PM again. However, she was assassinated by bodyguards in 1984. The bodyguards where Sikhs, who had long clashed with Gandhi’s governments. Sikhs wanted more autonomy for the state of Punjab, the only state with a Sikh majority. This was rejected, leading to the growth of separatism and militancy. With militants hiding in a holy site, the government launched Operation Blue Star, using heavy weapons to get their man, leading to bloodshed, although the Indian side claimed the militants were using pilgrims as human shields. Whichever side people believed, this incident damaged Sikh relations with the Indian state, and led to the assassination, which only worsened things. Gandhi’s son Rajiv Gandhi became PM. The INC (I) won a massive majority in the election that year amongst anti-Sikh riots throughout the country. However, by 1989 he was battling away scandals that had affected him. One of the main critics came from within his own government in Finance Minister V. P. Singh (Vishwananth Pratap Singh) who resigned, formed his own party, and merged with the JP, JP(S) and other parties to form the Janata Dal (JD, People’s Party). Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party), also emerged. Right-wing Hindu nationalism had existed in India, and though it joined the JP opposition during the Emergency, it found itself unable to assimilate with what was ultimately a secular movement based on old Congress principles. In the 1989 election, the INC was still the largest party, but without a majority, the JD was second and BJP third. Singh became head of a so-called National Front between the JD and regional parties, and became Prime Minister with the support of the BJP and external support from left-wing parties. However, the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agitation led to the Ram Rath Yatra (Rama Chariot Journey), a religious-political rally to the supposed birthplace of the Hindu deity Rama, where a mosque existed. Before the BJP President could get there, he was arrested for “fermenting communal tension”, and police fired at supporters still there. This led to the BJP withdrawing support and the end of the Singh government. Soon, Chandra Shekhar, which had led the JP for a long time before joining the JD, formed the Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) (SJP(R), Socialist People’s Party (National)) with INC (I) support. In 1991 the INC (I) withdrew support, and elections were held again. The INC (I) made gains, with the BJP the main opposition ahead of the Janata Dal. P. V. Narasimha Rao (Pamulaparthi Venkata Narasimha Rao) became PM, leading an INC (I) minority government with support of other parties. This government was not the most stable, but did complete a full term until 1996. This was a close race where the BJP won the most seats, but the INC (I) the most votes. A number of other parties like the JD won enough to be kingmakers, but no one party could give enough seats to either alone. As the leader of the largest party, the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee became PM to form a government, but the BJP were still considered too radical and Vajipayee resigned after two weeks. Minor parties formed a coalition called the United Front, with INC support (the original name having been restored after the election), and the JD’s H. D. Deve Gowda (Haradanhalli Doddegowda Deve Gowda) became PM. However, the INC (I) withdrew support in 1997. They agreed to give support back, in exchange for more sway and a new PM, which was External Affairs Minister Inder Kumar Gujral. However, the leaking of a report that criticised some members of the United Front for tacitly supporting Tamil militants in Sri Lanka who assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, the INC withdrew support again, and elections were held once more in 1998. Again, the BJP won the most seats, but the INC the most votes. Both parties gained and smaller parties were squeezed. Vajpayee became Prime Minister, forming a coalition called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, when a small party pulled out, the BJP lost their majority and elections were needed again in 1999. Again, the BJP won the most seats and the INC the most votes. This time, Vajipayee’s NDA coalition lasted until 2004 elections. That election was very close between the INC and BJP. However, the INC coalition (the United Progressive Alliance or UPA) managed to form government with support of left-wing parties under Manmohan Singh. The INC/UPA won a bigger victory in 2009. By now, it was a clear two-party system: the INC-led UPA and BJP-led NDA. However, in 2014 the INC were destroyed and the BJP won a majority on their own. The INC were barely above the small parties in their seat count. Narendra Modi became PM. In 2019, though the INC/UPA recovered a little bit (not much), the BJP won another majority on their own. Modi has been a controversial figure due to the Hindu nationalist agenda being seen as discriminating against Muslims, and the weaponisation and centralisation of the state leading to a decline of democratic norms. However, he is also very popular amongst the Hindu majority, and is seen as raising India’s global clout and stature. This time, the NDA is up against the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. The acronym, INDIA, may be a response to the Modi government using the name Bharat for the country even in English, which is said to have political overtones. It was basically a combination of the UPA and some left-wing parties. Former Minister Mallikarjun Kharge is the bloc’s leader. The NDA still has a lead in polls, though the INDIA alliance is hoping to be a stronger opposition this time. India is holding its election in phases, with the first phase taking all seats in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakhshadweep, and Puducherry, and some parts of Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Rajasthan, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir.
Narendra Modi (BJP), Prime Minister of India since 2014 On the same day, the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh will hold elections to its Legislative Assembly. The area was known as the North-East Frontier Agency, and is subject to a territorial dispute with China (both the communist government in Beijing and nominally, the republican one on Taiwan), who call it South Tibet. However, it was given the Sanskrit name Arunachal Pradesh (Land of the Dawn-Lit Mountains) and it became a union territory (not yet a state) in 1972. Elections were held for the first time in 1978. This was just after the Emergency had ended and Indira Gandhi had been defeated by the Janata Party. The INC barely bothered, only running a single candidate, with the JP beating its main opponent the People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA). Prem Khandu Thungon of the JP retained his position as Chief Minister. In 1979, he was replaced by the PPA’s Tomo Riba, and in 1980 President’s rule was declared. A new election was needed amidst the chaos, and in 1980, by which time the national JP had declined, a new election was held. The INC (I) and PPA both missed a majority, with independents as kingmakers. After the election, defections gave the INC (I) a solid majority, and Gegong Apang became CM. Apang would dominate politics in the next years. The INC won easily in 1984, and in 1987, the territory became a state. Even during the time of the National Front government, in 1990 the INC under Apang easily beat the Janata Dal, and in 1995 no party apart from Congress had any singificant representation, although there were several independents. Apang rebelled against the national party and formed his own Arunachal Congress (AC) in 1996, taking most local INC members with him. However, a split emerged in the Arunachal Congress with the arrival of the Arunachal Congress (Mithi) or AC(M), which was led by Mukut Mithi. Though Mithi initially supported the Vajipayee (BJP) government, when they didn’t give him a ministerial post, he switched back to the INC and his party was reincorporated into the INC. Mithi had enough members to bring down the Apang government, and the INC won a landslide in the 1999 state election. Apang was still around as the only elected AC member. He managed to take some INC members with him and formed a coalition in 2003 to unseat Mithi called the United Democratic Front, which then merged into the BJP. After the UPA won the 2004 election, Apang moved his members back to the INC, and he won the state election later that year. However, state members of the INC removed him in 2007, replacing him with Dorjee Khandu, the Power Minister. Khandu’s INC won easily in 2009. However, he died in a helicopter crash in 2011. Power Minister Jarbom Gamlin replaced him, but was removed by former Urban Development Minister Nabam Tuki later that year. Even amidst the BJP national landslide in 2014, the INC won easily in the state election on the same day. The BJP did make some gains as opposition. A split in the party led to a political crisis and President’s rule being declared in 2016. This was because Tuki removed Health Minister Khaliko Pul, and he then alleged financial mismanagement for which he was expelled. This crisis was resolved when Pul recruited enough INC members to the hitherto basically dormant PPA, and became Chief Minister. However, in 2016 the constitutionality was questioned and the Supreme Court removed Pul, restoring Tuki. Tuki resigned days later and Pema Khandu, son of Dorjee Khandu, replaced Tuki as INC leader and Chief Minister. This was enough to convince the PPA members to rejoin Congress. However, then every INC MLA apart from Tuki quit the party to join the PPA. However, Khandu was then suspended by the PPA in a plot to change leader. He instead took most PPA MLAs to the BJP, and formed a BJP government. In 2019, Khandu’s BJP won a majority, while the other seats were split. The INC took four and the PPA one, with the Janata Dal (United) or JD (U), a party that is centre-left and mostly popular in the east as the main opposition on seven. The National People’s Party (NPP), which is a centrist party also big in the north-east won five. Two went to independents. However, the INC still won the second-highest vote share. The BJP are expected to win this election very easily. Ten of sixty seats will be elected unopposed as the opposition did not bother with a candidate. The JD (U) are not bothering either, and the main opposition will come from the INC and NPP, but the BJP will doubtless win easily. The BJP won easily in both seats in this state in 2019 general elections as well, even though Tuki was the INC candidate in Arunachal West.
Pema Khandu (BJP), Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh since 2016 On the same date, the Indian state of Sikkim will hold legislative elections. The kingdom of Sikkim was an independent state. It allied with the UK to protect it from Bhutan and especially Nepal, who had dominated the region, and after the UK’s victory in the Anglo-Nepalese War, the Sugauli Treaty ceded Sikkim to (British) India. It became a British protectorate, but still technically independent, and this situation was similar after Indian independence, with Sikkim a monarchy and Indian protectorate. General elections were held in the country for the first time in 1953. However, there was a split between the indigenous Bhutia and Lepcha communities, who were Buddhist, and the Hindu Nepalis. Seats were given on a sectarian basis: all six Bhutia/Lepcha seats were won by the Sikkim National Party (SNP), who wanted to keep Sikkim independence, while Nepalis voted for the Sikkim State Congress (SSC), who wanted to join India. Elections in 1958 and 1967 added seats but retained the sectarian voter system. The SNP and SSC were joined by the Sikkim National Congress (SNC), which was meant to be a non-sectarian republican and pro-India movement and took much of the SSC’s seats, but also some from the SNP. Elections were held once more in 1970, and 1973 (by which time the SSC had merged to become the Sikkim Janata Congress or SJC (Sikkim People’s Congress)). The victory of the monarchist SNP in 1973 led to riots from those who thought the election was rigged. This led to a three-way agreement between India, the monarchy, and the parties for responsible government. The SNC dominated the 1974 elections and the SNP barely even bothered to campaign. It was clear time was up for the monarchy, and in 1975, Indian troops entered the country and held a referendum to abolish the monarchy, with 97.6% in support. The referendum was held under an atmosphere of intimidation and repression of opposition, but nonetheless it was upheld, and Sikkim became an Indian state in 1975, with the monarchy abolished. The SNC’s Kazi Lhendup Dorjee became Chief Minister, and merged his party into the INC. However, with the split in the INC around the time of the Emergency, the government lost its majority and the state was placed under President’s rule in 1979 for new elections. This was won by the Sikkim Janata Parishad (SJP, Sikkim Popular Association), while the main opposition was the Sikkim Congress (Revolutionary) (SC (R)). The rump INC was very weak and didn’t win a single seat. The SJP’s Nar Bahadur Bhandari became Chief Minister and merged the party back into the INC. However, he left the INC in 1984 to form the Sikkim Sangram Parishad (SSP, Sikkim Popular Struggle). This cost him his job as CM, with B. B. Garung (Bhim Bahadur Garung) becoming CM briefly. However, as the INC no longer had a majority, there was instability and the state was put under President’s rule again until new elections in 1985. Here, the SSP won a landslide, with every seat bar two (one INC, one independent). Bhandari became CM again. In 1989, the SSP won every seat. However, rumblings of discontent led to defections and in 1994, Bhandari was removed by a vote of no confidence. Sanchaman Limboo of the SSP became CM until elections later that year. Bhandari’s own Industries and Information Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling had split from the SSP to form the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) which defeated the SSP in the 1994 race. Chamling became CM. In 1999, the SDF increased their victory over the SSP, and by 2004 the SSP had all but disappeared. The SDF won every seat bar one for the INC. The SDF won every seat in 2009, and in 2014 won again, but were challenged by the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (Sikkim Revolutionary Front, SKM), a left-wing party, who took ten seats. In 2019, the SDF and Chamling were finally removed by the SKM, who won the race seventeen seats to fifteen. Prem Singh Tamang became CM. In the general election, the SKM beat the SDF to the parliamentary seat by 167 thousand votes to 154.5 thousand. The BJP candidate got 16.5 thousand. The SKM and SDF will look to continue their spat here, but they may be swept away by the BJP, who are targeting this state, with national politicians including Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the state. It remains to be seen if the SKM/SDF vote can hold up from this onslaught.
Prem Singh Tamang (SKM), Chief Minister of Sikkim since 2019 On 21 April, the Maldives will hold parliamentary elections. The elections were delayed from March because of Ramadan. The Buddhist Kingdom of Maldives was converted into an Islamic Sultanate of Maldives in 1153. The Portuguese, who had a colonial interest in nearby Goa (modern-day India) had an outpost, but attempts to convert the islands to Christianity led to their expulsion. The Netherlands, who controlled Ceylon (modern-day Sri Lanka), managed to have influence by the seventeenth century, but they were removed in the Napoleonic Wars by the UK. The Maldives became a British protectorate. Throughout this time, the Maldives retained control of its own affairs, though with the British influence strong. Maldives got independence in 1965. In a 1968 referendum, 81.2% voted for a republic. The first presidential election was in 1968, and parliamentary elections were held in 1969. Long-time Prime Minister Ibrahim Nasir became the first President, as the only candidate. In 1975, he arrested Prime Minister Ahmed Zaki for being too popular, and threatening his rule, and had him exiled to a remote location in a coup. However, by 1978, Nasir’s popularity had fallen due to economic problems, so he did not stand in the election and soon flew to Singapore before authorities found out that he had embezzled money. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, his Minister of Transport, was the only candidate for President. The same was true in 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. There were no parties at this time in parliamentary elections. However, agitation for political change led to the legalisation of political parties in 2005. The government forces became the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (Maldivian People’s Party, DRP), while the liberal opposition became the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). 2005 elections saw support for both the government and opposition, with the government favoured slightly. A 2007 referendum saw the presidential system retained with 62.0% support (the post of Prime Minister had long been abolished). In 2008 presidential elections, Gayoom led in the first round with the MDP’s Mohamed Nasheed second. Independent liberal Hassan Saeed came third, with the conservative Jumhooree Party (Republican Party) candidate Qasim Ibrahim in fourth. However, Nasheed won the second round with 54.2% of the vote, ending the thirty-year Gayoom administration. No party won a majority in the 2009 parliamentary election, but the DRP and MDP were still the strongest forces. In 2011, during the Arab Spring, protests occurred in the Maldives with some that endorsed Nasheed saying he failed to cement democracy, and others lamenting the economic situation. Nasheed resigned in 2012 with large pressure from the police and protestors (he claimed it was a coup) and Vice President Mohammed Waheed Hassan became President until 2013 elections. Waheed ran for re-election but came fourth behind Nasheed; Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), which split from the DRP (who endorsed Waheed), and Ibrahim. A re-run was held of the first round due to irregularities but Waheed did not bother run again. Nasheed took the first round, with Yameen ahead of Ibrahim. However, Yameen won the runoff with 51.4% of the vote. The DRP had all but disappeared by the 2014 election, with most seats going to the PPM, MDP, and Jumhooree Party. In 2018, Yameen was defeated by the MDP’s Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, a longtime lawmaker, with 58.4% of the vote. In 2019, the MDP won a landslide in parliamentary elections, with 65 of 87 seats. There were eight candidates in 2023 for president, but the main ones were Solih and Mayor of Malé Mohamed Muizzu, who ran for the People’s National Congress (PNC). This was an ally of the PPM, and Muizzu won 54.0% support. However, after Muizzu took office, the PNC and PPM positions soured. The PNC and PPM are seen to be pro-China, whereas the MDP are pro-West and pro-India. Muizzu used the slogan “India Out” in his 2023 election campaign. This election therefore has a few parties: the PNC, PPM, and MDP among them.
Mohamed Muizzu (PNC), President of the Maldives since 2023 On the same date, Poland will hold the second round of local elections. These will be in mayoral elections and other executive positions where no candidate received a majority. The PO Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski was re-elected in the first round easily, while it’s a friendly fight in Kraków where the PO and Left Together-endorsed independent candidates both beat the PiS nominee to third. In Wrocław, the Left and KO-backed incumbent Jacek Sutryk will go against Poland 2050 MP Izabela Bodnar, and in Łódź the PO incumbent Hanna Zdanowska also won in the first round. In Poznań the PO’s incumbent Jacek Jaśkowiak should easily beat PiS candidate Zbigniew Czerwiński, while in Gdańsk, KO independent Aleksandra Dulkiewicz won without needing a runoff, and the same was true about KO-backed independent Piotr Krzystek in Szczecin. In Bydgoszcz, PO incumbent Rafał Bruski won in the first round, as did his PO counterpart in Lublin Krzysztof Żuk. This shows the current coalition’s strength in urban areas, while the opposition PiS are stronger in rural parts of the country.
Andrzej Duda (Independent PiS), President of Poland since 2015 On the same date, the Spanish autonomous community of the Basque Country will hold its regional elections. Speaking their own language, the Basque people had levels of autonomy in Spanish (and French) kingdoms in which they inhabited, even before the Franco regime. However, Basque nationalism survived. After Spain’s transition to democracy, the Basque Country was one of the regions with autonomous government. Five parties won seats in the Basque Country in the first post-Franco general election in 1977: the first was the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV), who werewere Basque nationalist, and also Christian and relatively conservative. The Socialist Party of the Basque Country (PSE), the local branch of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the main centre-left party, were second. The Union of the Democratic Centre (UCD), the main non-socialist party who formed the government were only third in the Basque country, with the right-wing People’s Alliance (AP) and the Basque Country Left (EE), a left-wing Basque nationalist party, won one each. In 1979, the EAJ/PNV beat the PSE and UCD, with the rest going to Herri Batasuna (Popular Unity, HB), a left-wing nationalist party, and the EE. The AP had become the Democratic Coalition, but failed to win a seat this time. The first Basque regional election was held in 1980. The EAJ/PNV were the largest party, while HB beat the PSE. The remaining seats were won by the EE, UCD, and AP, with the last seat went to the Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK), the local branch of the Communist Party of Spain. The Lehendakari or President of the Government was the EAJ/PNV’s Carlos Garaikoetxea. In 1982 elections, the EAJ/PNV and PSE got the most seats, with HB and the Democratic Coalition on two each (the latter including the AP, UCD, and others). The EE won the last seat. The next Basque election was in 1984. The EAJ/PNV were the clear leaders, while the PSE, HB, People’s Coalition and EE winning seats, and the PCE/EPK missing out. HB members absented themselves to allow Garaikoetxea to continue. However, he lost support of his own party and in 1985 was replaced by José Antonio Ardanza. In the 1986 Spanish election, the PSE won the most seats, beating the EAJ/PNV. HB, the People’s Coalition and EE won the rest. Early elections for the regional parliament were needed because of the EAJ/PNV split. The PSE was the largest party ahead of the EAJ/PNV. The HB was tied with the new Eusko Alkartasuna (EA, Basque Solidarity), which was formed by Garaikoetxea and was centre-left and Basque nationalist for third. The remaining seats were won by the EE, the AP coalition with the Liberal Party, and the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), which was a revival of the UCD which had by now died as a powerful force. Ardanza stayed on with PSE and CDS support. The PSE, EAJ/PNV, HB, EA, People’s Party (PP, formerly the People’s Coalition), and EE all won seats in the 1989 Spanish election in the Basque Country. In the regional election of 1990, the EAJ/PNV regained their position in first ahead of the PSE. HB, EA, the PP, EE and the new Alavese Unity (UA), a regional centre-right party in Álava, also won seats. No party voted against Ardanza. Spain was becoming a PSOE/PP two-party system, while the Basque Country was more split. One party to disappear was EE, who merged with the PSE to form the PSE-EE, which is still the name of the party today. They beat the EAJ/PNV, PP, HB, and a coalition between EA and Euskal Ezerra (EuE, Basque Left), those EE members who rejected the merger. In 1994, the EAJ/PNV won the most seats as the PSE-EE experienced losses. The HB, PP, and EA were joined by the United Left (IU), which the Communist Party was a member of, and UA. Ardanza stayed on with PSE-EE and EA support. In 1996, a general election which ended over a decade of PSOE rule, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, and PP all won seats, with the rest going to HB, the IU, and EA. In 1998, the EAJ/PNV were the largest party ahead of the PP, who made a breakthrough to be the main opposition. HB merged into the Euskal Herritarrok party (Basque Citizens, EH), which was tied for third with the PSE-EE. EA, the IU, and UA won the remaining seats. Ardanza retired and in 1999, Juan José Ibarretxe was elected Lehendakari with EH and EA support. In 2000, the EAJ/PNV and PP won the most seats in the Basque Country for Spanish general elections, with the PSE-EE and EA winning seats. The IU missed out while EH called for a boycott. The EAJ/PNV and EA formed a coalition called PNV-EA in 2001, which won the most seats ahead of the PP, PSE-EE, EH and IU. Ibarretxe stayed on as no party opposed him. In 2004 Spanish ealections, the EAJ/PNV and PSE-EE won the most seats, ahead of the PP and EA. The EH was banned in 2003 due to sympathising with Basque separatist terrorists. The PNV-EA won the most seats, ahead of the PSE-EE and PP. Replacing the EH was the Communist Party of the Basque Homelands (EHAK), while the remaining seats went to the United Left-Greens (EB-B) and Aralar, which split from the EH to outwardly reject terrorism (Aralar is a mountain range in the Basque Country). Ibarratetxe held on by one vote thanks to two EHAK MPs voting for him. Spanish elections were next held in 2008, with seats won by the PSE-EE, EAJ/PNV, and PP in the Basque Country. By 2009, EHAK was banned. Though the EAJ/PNV won the most seats, the PSE-EE made gains. The remaining seats were won by the PP, Aralar, EA (who ran alone), EB-B, and a new centrist, anti-nationalist liberal Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD). With PP and UPyD support, the PSE-EE led a pro-Spanish government under Patxi López, despite being rivals nationally, ending years of nationalist dominance. National elections were held in 2011, with EA and Aralar having merged with others into a new party called Amaiur (a Basque fortress from medieval times), who won the most seats in the Basque Country. The EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, and PP won the remainder. The PP withdrew support for López’s administration in 2012, leading to early elections. The EAJ/PNV was the main party, while Amaiur was replaced by a new coalition called EH Bildu (EH stands for Basque Country, Bildu is Gather). The PSE-EE and PP both lost ground, while the UPyD won the last seat. The EB-B had split from the national IU and the two ran against each other, neither winning seats. In the end, the pro-Spain parties abstained to allow the EAJ/PNV’s Iñigo Urkullu to become Lehandakari ahead of an EH Bildu candidate. The Spanish political landscape was changed in 2015, when the left-wing party Podemos (We Can) and the liberal Citizens (Cs) made gains. The EAJ/PNV won the most seats in the Basque Country, but Podemos won the most votes. The PSE-EE, EH Bildu, and PP also won seats. With no government formed, a new election was held. Podemos formed a coalition, Unidos Podemos (Together We Can) with the IU and the small green party Equo, which was the largest in the Basque Country. The EAJ/PNV fell to second, with the rest going to the PSE-EE, EH Bildu, and PP. With no majority, the PSOE had to abstain to allow Mariano Rajoy of the PP to stay as Prime Minister. In 2016 regional elections, the EAJ/PNV remained first, with EH Bildu joined by Unidas Podemos in third. The PSE-EE and PP also won seats. This time the PSE-EE endorsed Urkullu, with Unidas Podemos and PP abstaining to bring him over the line. In 2018, Rajoy was removed by the PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who became Prime Minister. He got support from Unidas Podemos and Catalan, Valencian, and Canarian regionalist parties, as well as the EAJ/PNV and EH Bildu. Catalan parties ended the government leading to April 2019 elections. This saw the PSOE become the largest party, the PP lose half their seats, and the far-right Vox (Voice) join as the fifth party. In the Basque Country, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, Unidas Podemos (only changing the name to be feminine but otherwise the same), and EH Bildu won seats, with the PP missing out. No government was formed and new elections were needed in November. The PP and Vox made gains, the latter coming third, but the PSOE still won. The Cs fell to irrelevance. In the Basque Country, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, EH Bildu, Unidas Podemos and PP won seats. This time, Sánchez survived by two votes, with Unidas Podemos, the EAJ/PNV, and Valencian, Canarian, Galician and Turolense regionalists, as well as a small left-wing party voting for him, and Catalan nationalists plus EH Bildu abstaining. The last Basque election was held in 2020. The EAJ/PNV were the largest party, with the other seats going to EH Bildu, the PSE-EE, Unidas Podemos, a joint PP and Cs list called PP+Cs, and Vox. The PSE-EE supported Urkullu again. After poor local election results in 2023, Sánchez called an early election. PP became the largest party, while Unidas Podemos became Sumar (Unite). The PSE-EE, EAJ/PNV, EH Bildu, PP and Sumar won seats in the Basque Country. Sánchez formed a majority with Sumar, EH Bildu, the EAJ/PNV, and regionalists in Catalonia, Galicia, and the Canary Islands. This government has stayed together for now. However, there have been some changes in the Basque landscape. The EAJ/PNV have decided not to choose Urkullu as their candidate this time, but Imanol Pradales, who is relatively young (48), seen as an attempt to win votes back off EH Bildu. Meanwhile, Sumar and the United Left have split from Podemos, who must run separately, and with both winning similar numbers it is likely neither will win much. EH Bildu’s lead candidate is Pello Otxandiano, and the party is not far behind the EAJ/PNV in polls. The PP+Cs alliance ended and the Cs lie basically dormant. The PNV/EAJ, EH Bildu, PSE-EE, and PP are guaranteed seats, but with Sumar, Podemos and Vox it could go one way or the other. It is probable, but not guaranteed, that the PNV/EAJ-PSE-EE coalition will have a majority if they wish to continue it.
Iñigo Urkullu (EAJ/PNV), Lehendakari of the Government of the Basque Country since 2012 On the same date, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will hold Senate elections. The Congo Free State was acquired by King Leopold of Belgium, not as a Belgian colony but a personal colony of Leopold. Leopold’s rule was extremely harsh and the level of atrocities led to the Belgian parliament annexing it as a Belgian possession in 1908. Belgian rule did not end until 1960, and no elections were held until those a few weeks before independence. The winning party was the Congolese National Movement (MNC), which had split and the dominant faction was the MNC-Lumumba (MNC-L), named after its leader Patrice Lumumba. Lumumba became the Republic of Congo’s first Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the ABAKO party (Alliance of Bakongo, Bakongo being an ethnic group) were granted the presidency in an act of political unity, with Joseph Kasa-Vubu becoming President. Lumumba was considered a leftist and Kasa-Vubu a conservative, providing ethnic and political balance. With a parliamentary system, the presidency was considered mostly ceremonial. However, the new government was unable to deal with challenges including the rise of secessionist movements. Lumumba reacted by taking an authoritarian stance, ignoring his cabinet, and Kasa-Vubu then dismissed him, concerned at this. The next two Prime Ministers lasted only a couple of weeks, and the next two after that lasted a few months. With American support, Cyrille Adoula became PM, but tried to balance his cabinet with Lumumbaists too. In 1964, a constitutional referendum made the country the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Adoula lasted until 1964, when Kasa-Vubu pressured him to resign for failing to contain leftist rebellions. His replacement Moïse Tshombe was selected as someone who would placate the West. His Convention National Congolaise (CONACO, Congolese National Convention) won the 1965 election. However, Tshombe was then removed by Kasa-Vubu. The pro-Tshombe parliament refused to confirm any other Prime Minister, so the head of the armed forces Mobutu Sese Seko led a coup with the government paralysed. Mobutu obtained near-autocratic power almost instantly, with a one-party state under the Popular Movement of the Revolution (MPR). It was African nationalist and anti-communist. Mobutu became President, and in 1970 was re-elected with a turnout of 100.3%. As part of his African nationalist agenda, he renamed the country Zaire in 1971. Political opponents were publicly executed. Mobutu was re-elected in 1977 and 1984. Just after the Cold War ended, economic problems led to student protests. These were massacred by the government, leading to an end to EEC, American and Canadian aid. Mobutu responded by allowing opposition figures into a coalition government. At the same time, a Genocide of Tutsis was happening in neighbouring Rwanda. Mobuto supported the Hutus, who were responsible, and ordered Tutsis to leave. Meanwhile, pro-Tutsi groups that would soon take over Rwanda supported Tutsis in Zaire who soon took over part of the country. After the new Rwandan government took over, Hutus would seek refuge in Zaire as they planned rebellion. Thus, Rwanda invaded Zaire, and soon Uganda, Burundi, Eritrea and South Sudanese rebels would join in, alongside Zairean rebels. Mobutu, who was growing frail, saw his forces and the Rwandan rebels overrun. A new government was formed under Laurent-Désiré Kabila, who renamed the country back to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Kabila wanted the foreign forces to leave, but they refused. However, the Congolese Tutsis were alarmed by the Rwandan forces leaving, and rebelled. They were backed by Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi. This conflict involved African countries on either side, with Angola, Chad, Libya, Namibia and Zimbabwe supporting Kabila. Peace talks led to a transitional government and elections in 2006, but even so, militias and fighting still exists. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila, an independent and son of Laurent-Désiré Kabila, was re-elected in a second round against Jean-Pierre Bemba, who led the Rwandan-backed rebel group the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) which became a party after the peace talks. However, key opposition figure Étienne Tshisekedi from the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) refused to enter because he was the elections as rigged. In 2011, Tshisekedi did enter, but was defeated by Kabila in an election beset by irregularities. Kabila attempted to delay the next elections, but they eventually took place in 2018, without Kabila as a candidate. Opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi, son of the late Étienne Tshisekedi, defeated Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadry, the latter being considered the pro-government candidate. In 2023, Tshisekedi was easilly re-elected and the UDPS won the most seats in parliament, although the opposition claimed fraud. This shows that the DRC’s situation is still very volatile. These Senate elections are indirect, chosen by provincial assemblies. In 2019, they were dominated by Kabila’s Common Front for Congo, but this time the results will probably be different.
Félix Tshisekedi (UDPS), President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 2019 On the same day, the Kosovan region of North Kosovo will hold referenda to remove their mayors. North Kosovo is not an official region, but is understood to be made up of the muncipalities North Mitrovica, Lepsoavić, Zvečan, and Zubin Potok. Kosovo had been influenced by Roman, Bulgarian and Byzantine Empires before being taken by the Serbian Kingdom. There were good relations between the Serbian rulers and Albanian-speaking locals at this time. However, it was then conquered by the Ottoman Empire, and the Albanian chiefs decided to accept them, leading to the successful Islamisation of the area. Serbia wanted it back, but Albanian nationalism grew in the nineteenth century. As conflict broke out between Serbia and the Ottomans, Serbia expelled Albanians living in Serbia, who mostly supported the Ottomans and fled to Ottoman Kosovo, creating ethnic tension that still hasn’t broke down. Albanian nationalism was lukewarm on the Ottoman Empire itself, wanting autonomy. This led to a revolt from Albanian nationalists in 1912, wanting autonomy. With the Ottoman soldiers also Albanians and not wanting to fight their own, they accepted this. However, the revelation of Ottoman weakness led to other Balkan powers (Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece) declaring war, and winning. In the 1913 Treaty of London Kosovo was given to Serbia and Montenegro. After World War I, both these countries became part of Yugoslavia. At this time, discrimination against Albanians was rife, conversion to Orthodox Christianity was attempted, and Serbs colonised the area. During World War II, Italy occupied Albania, and the puppet state’s claim to Kosovo was supported, leading to a brief reversal of the Serbification. Like Croatia, Kosovo was a part of Communist Yugoslavia after the war; unlike Serbia it was not its own republic, but an autonomous part of Serbia. As Tito broke from Stalin, and Albanian leader Enver Hoxha continued to pursue a Stalinist line, Albanians were distrusted by the regime and Serbs were preferred. However, Kosovan agitations for more autonomy were heard, and the situation began to favour Albanians in the autonomous region, now upgraded to an autonomous province in 1963. Albanians wanted more, and in 1981 protested to become a full republic, which led to the regime cracking down on them again. Ethnic tensions began to grow, and in 1989 Serbia further decreased Kosovan autonomy. Kosovo responded by voting to create a Republic of Kosova as a part of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia did not recognise this. In 1991, they declared Kosova independent from Yugoslavia, but again this was not recognised. However, they created their own government structures. Things turned violent with the formation of paramilitaries which attacked Yugoslavian state officials, leading to the Kosovo War. After a ceasefire broke, NATO drafted an agreement to restore Yugoslavia’s autonomy and allow NATO peacekeeping forces. When Yugoslavia rejected this, and atrocities committed to Albanians put further attention on the conflict, NATO bombed Yugoslavia to pressure them to withdraw. In 1999, Yugoslavia withdrew and although still claiming Kosovo, allowed a UN transitional authority to take charge. Elections were held in 2001, 2004 and 2007 under this agreement. In 2008, the parliament voted to declare independence. It was immediately recognised by the US, UK, France, and others, while Russia, China, and Serbia (Yugoslavia renamed itself Serbia and Montenegro, and then just Serbia after Montenegrin independence in 2006) did not. However, NATO forces make a change to the status quo unlikely. Though most of the country is populated by Albanians, North Kosovo is mostly Serb. Serbia and the Serbs in North Kosovo wanted some form of autonomy for them under any independent or autonomous Kosovan state, which the Kosovans and West opposed. Though Kosovo agreed with Serbia in the 2013 Brussels Agreement for a Community of Serb Municipalities, in 2015 they froze the agreement after countries refused to vote for it to join UNESCO, a United Nations body. In 2017, no party won a majority in parliament. Thus, it relied on minority ethnic MPs, including Serbs. This led to more Serb participation in government and a period of slightly better relations. However, the government ended when the Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj was called to the Netherlands to face trial for war crimes in the Kosovo War. A new election took place in 2019, but again no stable government was formed. The latest election was in 2021, when the left-wing Vetëvendosje (Self-determination) party, which is Albanian nationalist and populist, won close to a majority. Albin Kurti became Prime Minister. Current opinion polls show Vetëvendosje still miles in front with the opposition not making ground. Under Kurti, relations between the Kosovan state and Serbs living there have been difficult. He banned neutral “Kosovo” license plates on cars from being used, mandating “Republic of Kosovo” ones. As Serbia does not recognise the Republic of Kosovo plate, and Kosovo does not recognise the Serbian one, the neutal Kosovo plate was necessary for those travelling between the border. This led to protests which at times turned fiery. A solution of covering the plate with a sticker was eventually found. However, this was only temporary and Kurti announced that the ban would be re-introduced in 2022. He postponed it under international pressure after protests. An agreement was proposed between Serbia and Kosovo to end the issue, but Kosovo did not accept this and the ban resumed in November 2022. This led to Serbs who worked for the Kosovan state including elected officials, judges, and police withdrawing. Local elections were held in the four North Kosovan muncipalities in 2023, boycotted by Serbs. Therefore, Albanians were elected on tiny turnouts. In 2023, a normalisation agreement was signed between Kosovo and Serbia. They agreed to normalise relations, and stop Serbia blocking Kosovo from joining international organisations. In return, Kosovo had to allow the Serbian minority some autonomy and protect the Serbian Orthodox Church. The Serbian President verbally agreed but under pressure refused to sign it, stating that his “arm hurt” and would continue to do so for four years, but agreed to implement it as long as Kosovo did not join the UN and Serbia did not have to recognise Kosovo. Tension continued however, with the latest twist coming in February 2024 when Kosovo banned the use of the Serbian dinar in any part of its territory, mandating that only the Euro be used. Serbs have been able to raise a petition to remove the four incumbent mayors in North Kosovo, and Kosovo authorities accepted the legality of such a move. They should pass easily.
Albin Kurti (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister of Kosovo in 2020 and again since 2021 On the same date, Ecuador will hold a constitutional referendum. Ecuador was a Spanish possession that won independence in the Battle of Pichincha of 1822, joining the Republic of Gran Colombia but separating in 1830. The first direct presidential election was in 1865. Ecuador was dominated by conservative landowners and clergy, until the Liberal Revolution of 1895. After this coup came secularism and the decline of church power. However, the Liberals also ran power as a cartel of sorts, and a military coup in 1925 removed them. The officers wanted a pluralist state, so they weakened the presidency and allowed for a stronger and diverse parliament. This did lead to instability, but it survived until a 1963 coup, which was caused when the incumbent President supported the Cuban Revolution leading to criticism from the US and within right-wing circles in Ecuador. However, economic problems led to protests and the end of the ambitious junta in 1966. Another coup ocurred in 1972 before presidential elections could take place. However, a counter-coup in 1976 was caused by a new junta who wanted to restore democracy. Democratic presidential elections were held in 1978 and 1979, with Jaime Roldós Aguilera winning. Though his death in 1981 caused him not to complete his term, the winners in 1984, 1988, and 1992 all completed their terms normally, showing Ecuador as a country where the constitutional system was functioning. All came from different parties, and the party system was generally pretty weak, like many countries in South America. The winner in 1996, Abdalá Bucaram was impeached for corruption, and though there was a dispute over who should succeed him, this passed as well and early elections were held in 1998, won by Jamil Mahuad. An attempted coup ocurred in 2000 by indigenous groups alongside some military officers. The lack of support for a junta or Mahuad amongst the public led to a compromise where Vice President Gustavo Noboa became President. The coup leader Lucio Gutiérrez was elected in his own right in 2002. However, he failed to be the leftist that many of his voters hoped he would, and this led to mass protests and a vote in parliament to remove him in 2005. In 2006, the left-winger Rafael Correa, of the PAIS Alliance (Proud and Sovereign Homeland) won the election. He called Constituent Assembly elections, which were won by PAIS, and then passed a new constitution that let him run again for two more terms. In 2009, he was re-elected, with Gutiérrez second, and in 2013, he won again. In 2017, he was term-limited. Vice President Lenín Moreno ran for PAIS, and the left-wing parties coalesced around the United Front. Meanwhile, the Creating Opportunities party (CREO, meaning I Believe in Spanish), led the Alliance for Change, with neoliberal candidate Guillermo Lasso. Moreno put a referendum to re-introduce term limits in a break from Correa. Moreno was considered more moderate and though he initially was popular, his reversal of Correa’s populism led to a decline in support. By 2021, the PAIS Alliance was basically dead. CREO’s Lasso this time beat left-winger Andrés Arauz, of the left-wing Union for Hope. Protests against Lasso as prices raised led to a sharp crackdown, and this in turn led to impeachment proceedings. Rather than face them, he called an early election. Daniel Noboa of the centrist National Democratic Action (ADN) narrowly beat Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement (RC). Though Correa was a spender, his successors Moreno and Lasso were more austere figures. Among those services to be cut were security services, and this along with a higher poverty rate has made it easier for gangs to recruit. With cocaine being trafficked from neighbouring Colombia and Peru, Ecuador has always been a hotspot for drug gang activity, and since a crackdown by Colombian authorities, this has only increased in Ecuador. Gang leaders escaped from prison in January, leading to a state of emergency being declared by Noboa with broad powers that infringe on basic rights. This led to a declaration of war from the gangs. There have been mass arrests while the gangs still carry out some attacks on government officials, citizens, and infrastructure. A broad constitutional reform has now been proposed by Noboa, in order to give the state more powers to deal with such challenges.
Daniel Noboa (ADN), President of Ecuador since 2023 On 21 and 22 April, the Italian region of Basilicata will hold elections to its Regional Council. Regional elections were first held in Basilicata in 1970, and were dominated by the Christian Democracy (DC) until 1990. After the fall of that party following a number of corruption scandals, the media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi filled the gap on the right with his Forza Italia (Forward Italy, FI) party. The Communist Party, which had been the main opposition, also reformed itself as the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS), a social democratic party. Though Berlusconi’s coalition won the 1994 general election, in Basilicata, the PDS-led coalition, known as the centre-left coalition, and also including the Italian People’s Party (PPI) (the formal successor of the DC without most of its right wing) won the election with a PPI President, Raffaele Dinardo. By 2000, the PDS had merged into the Democrats of the Left (DS), and their coalition, The Olive Tree, defeated Forza Italia’s Pole for Freedoms. Filippo Bubbico became President. In 2005, the DS had joined an alliance called The Olive Tree, with the alliance being The Union. They won a landslide over Forza Italia’s House of Freedoms, with Vito De Filippo becoming President. De Filippo won again in 2010. By now the DS had merged to become the Democratic Party (PD), who led the centre-left, while Forza Italia had merged to become The People of Freedom (PdL), leading the centre-right. De Filippo resigned in 2013 due to corruption allegations surrounding members of his cabinet, and a new elections was held in 2013. The centre-left won easily again under the PD’s Marcello Pitella, defeating the centre-right led by the PdL. However, in 2019 the centre-right notched up a victory, with the Lega (League) as the main party. Lega Nord (Northern League) was a party that was an ally of Berlusconi’s in 1994, believing in a right-wing nationalism for the independence of the north of Italy, or as they put it, Padania. However, under Matteo Salvini, they focussed more on right-wing populism that was sweeping through Europe around the time of the European migrant crisis, and also ran in the south. After the failure of a constitutional referendum, PD Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned, Paolo Gentiloni completed the centre-left administration’s term. In 2018, Forza Italia and the Lega Nord won the most seats. The populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which was Eurosceptic but could be seen to have a left-wing streak as well, was the largest sole party, while the centre-left were hammered. In the end, the Lega formed government with the M5S, with both party leaders as Deputy Prime Minister and independent Giuseppe Conte as PM. However, the electoral coalitions stuck. Forza Italia’s Vito Bardi became President, with the centre-left and M5S in opposition. Seeing his party ahead and wanting power, in 2019 Salvini withdrew confidence in Conte. However, the PD then stepped in to form a government with the M5S, stopping the League from winning an early election. The new PD leadership was more left-wing, and Renzi quit to form his own party, Italia Viva (IV, Italy Alive). Though it was initially part of the coalition, it withdrew confidence in 2021. A coalition of nearly every party was formed under independent Mario Draghi to finish the term. However, one party, the Brothers of Italy (FdI), a right-wing party that was part of the centre-right coalition stayed out. The FdI was much smaller than the League and FI in 2018, having been a post-fascist party. The FdI started to gain in polls, and in 2022, the centre-right won a majority, with FdI the largest party. Giorgia Meloni became PM in coalition with the League and FI. Meanwhile, the centre-left and M5S lost ground. By now, Conte had joined the M5S, and the party became more moderate and less populist, as a generally progressive party not dissimilar to the PD. The centre-right coalition contains the League, FI, FdI, and four smaller lists, including in this region Italia Viva. Bardi is running for re-election against Piero Marrese of the centre-left, not just backed by PD and its allies, but also the M5S. Bardi has a narrow, but significant, lead in polls.
Vito Bardi (FI), President of Basilicata since 2019 On 24 April, North Macedonia will hold presidential elections. Macedonians were considered Bulgarians, with a very similar language, and the same religion (under Ottoman rule, this designation was linked to Orthodox Christianity, while others in the area were Muslim). As Bulgarian nationalism rose, Greeks and later Serbs thought it useful to emphasise the similarities they had with people in the area. Thus, they promoted a Macedonian identity, related to the Macedonia that existed in ancient Greece. This was picked upon by Slavic intellectuals, who declared themselves Macedonian. However, it was considered a regional identity of Bulgarians, not yet a national one, and was suppressed after Serbia took the area in the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913, viewing any forms of Bulgarian identity a threat to Serbian rule of the region. Though Bulgaria took Macedonia back in World War I, they were part of the losing Central Powers and lost the region at the end of it. Serbia, including Macedonia, would become part of Yugoslavia. Yugoslava was occupied by the Axis from 1941, Macedonia went to Bulgaria. Though many Macedonians saw themselves as Bulgarians, the Bulgarians acted as an occupying force and ruled harshly, leading Macedonians to join the Yugoslav resistenance of Tito. Macedonia was, like Croatia, one of the republics of post-war Socialist Yugoslavia. After this, Macedonia as a nation was unquestionable, as there was a purge of anyone that still felt they were Bulgarian: especially after the Tito-Stalin split (as Bulgaria was a puppet state of the Soviet Union). Yugoslavia promoted Macedonian identity, and today there is no real doubt that they are a distinct people. One-party rule continued until 1990 under the League of Communists of Macedonia (SKM) as part of Tito’s dictatorship, when democratic elections were held. The top party was the VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity). They were a conservative and nationalist party (the name is a reference to a revolutionary organisation from the turn of the twentieth century). The second largest party was the League of SKM, who had dropped everything red but the name and added the subtitle Party for Democratic Reform (SKM-PDP). Meanwhile, the third-placed party was named the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PPD), and aimed at Macedonia’s sizable Albanian minority. Nikola Klusjev became the Prime Minister, and in 1991 led an independence referendum with 96.5% in favour. Macedonia avoided the war that other Balkan countries had after the fall of Yugoslavia and won independence peacefully. The SKM became the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), abandoning communism and becoming a standard centre-left European party, and its leader Branko Crvenkovski became PM in 1992. Elections were held again alongside the first round of presidential elections in 1994. The SDSM formed a coalition called the Alliance for Macedonia, and its candidate Kiro Gligorov easily beat the VMRO-DPMNE’s Ljubiša Georgievski. Gligorov was the incumbent, having being chosen by parliament as the first President of independent Macedonia. Georgievski alleged fraud and the VMRO-DPMNE boycotted the second round of parliamentary elections, giving the Alliance for Macedonia and easy majority allowing Crvenkovski to stay on for another term. Parliamentary elections were held again in 1998, and a coalition led by the VMRO-DPMNE defeated the SDSM easily. Ljubčo Georgievski became PM. In 1999, the VMRO-DPMNE’s Boris Trajkovski defeated the SDSM’s Tito Petkosvki and became President. In 2002, the SDSM-led coalition, Together for Macedonia, defeated the VMRO-DPMNE-led one, allowing Crvenkovski to become PM again. In this election, the PPD declined and were replaced as the main Albanian party (and third-placed party) by the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI). In 2004, Crvenkovski defeated the VMRO-DPMNE’s Saško Kedev to become President, following a plane crash which killed Trajkovski. However, the early 21st century was a difficult time for Macedonia. When the Kosovo War began, Kosovan refugees began affiliating themselves to the insurgents. In 2001, Albanians had formed their own groups in Macedonia and started attacking the Macedonian government, claiming discrimination. The Ohrid Agreement was signed to end the conflict, giving Albanian national language status and Albanian autonomy. The militants formed the DUI as a democratic political party, while the other party representing that minority is the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA). In 2004, a referendum to overturn the referendum failed due to low turnout, having being promoted by the VMRO-DPMNE. Disputes between (ethnic) Macedonians and Albanians ended the premiership of Hari Kostov just months after he replaced Crvenkovski. Vladko Bučkovski finished the term. In 2006, the VMRO-DPMNE-led For a Better Macedonia defeated Together for Macedonia. Nikola Gruevski became Prime Minister. Gruevski shed VMRO-DPMNE’s pro-Bulgarian style of nationalism, instead promoting antiquisation, which promoted Macedonians of the past, even before Macedonia was considered a separate nationality. In the capital Skopje, it is common to see statues of great Macedonians in his project, Skopje 2014. However, Greece also claims ancient Macedonian heritage, and disputed the Republic of Macedonia’s claim to the name (this is why those of you old enough to remember may have heard the term ‘FYR Macedonia’ or Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). A coalition between the VMRO-DPMNE and the DPA was formed, later also including the PPD. After Greece vetoed a bid to join NATO, the government called early elections in 2008. For a Better Macedonia won a majority in a landslide win over the SDSM’s Sun – Coalition for Europe, who barely finished ahead of the DUI and DPA. The PDP merged with the DPA after this election. In 2009, things got better for VMRO-DPMNE, as Gjorge Ivanov defeated the SDSM’s Ljubomir Frčkovski for the Presidency. When the government led raids on companies for tax evasion, including independent media, there were large protests from the opposition that forced early elections in 2011. The VMRO-DPMNE coalition still defeated the SDSM one, although the SDSM and its allies made gains that deprived the VMRO-DPMNE of its majority. The next elections were for both president and parliament in 2014. Ivanov easily defeated the SDSM’s Stevo Pendarovski for President. For parliament, the VMRO-DPMNE coalition was one short of a majority. In 2015, Gruevski charged Zoran Zaev, a leader of the SDSM, for planning a coup with the British ambassador. The SDSM had constantly accused the VMRO-DPMNE of rigging elections and this was no different in 2014. Zaev responded by accusing Gruevski of mass wiretapping of Macedonian civilians, and covering up a murder by a police officer, which led to large protests breaking out. The EU mediated a deal between the VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM known as the Pržino Agreement. Gruevski would resign, while the SDSM would return and have some role in a coalition government. Emil Dmitriev was Prime Minister in this time. Elections were held in 2016. Though For a Better Macedonia (the name being revived for this election) did win more seats than the SDSM’s For Life in Macedonia coalition, the SDSM was able to form an agreement with the DUI and Zaev became PM. The SDSM got another win in 2019, when Stevo Pendarovski defeated the VMRO-DPMNE’s Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, with Ivanov term limited. Pendarovski had been in multiple roles (Trajkovski’s national security advisor from 2001 to 2004, head of the State Election Commission from 2004 to 2005, Crnevkovski’s national security and then foreign policy advisor from 2005 to 2009), and was the losing SDSM candidate in 2014. This election was also notable as it was the first after the SDSM government signed the Prespa Agreement with Greece. This would rename the country North Macedonia, ending the dispute. The VMRO-DPMNE bitterly opposed this (and still does), and a referendum in 2018 was boycotted and invalidated due to low turnout. However, the government went ahead with it anyway, and Pendarovski’s re-election seemed to be a sort of mandate for this. After France blocked North Macedonia’s negotiations to join the EU, the SDSM called early elections in 2020 and Zaev resigned, with Oliver Spasovski becoming caretaker PM. However, the SDSM coalition, We Can! More and Better still came ahead of the VMRO-DPMNE’s Renewal for Macedonia. The remaining seats were won by the DUI, a coalition between the Alliance for Albanians (ASH) and Alternativa (Alternative) minority parties, the left-wing populist and nationalist The Left, and the DPA. We Can!, the BDI and DPA formed a coalition. In 2022, Zaev resigned after poor local election results. Dimitar Kovačevski replaced him, serving until 2024, when he resigned under the coalition agreement, which said an Albanian Prime Minister would rule for 100 days, this being the BDI’s Talat Xhaferi. General elections are in 2024, with the first round of the presidential election in April, and the second round as well as parliamentary elections in May. Again, Pendarovski’s opponent is the VMRO-DPMNE’s Siljanovska-Davkova. An academic, who had served in some political roles and considered an expert in constitutional law, in 2019 she promised to restore the old name of the country if elected, but lost to Pendarovski. Polls suggest her chances are much better this time, and Pendarovski is in danger. The President is nonetheless a rather toothless figure in North Macedonian politics. The simulatenous parliamentary election is more important, with the VMRO-DPMNE’s Your Macedonia way in front of the SDSM’s For a European Future coalition.
Stevo Pendarovski (SDSM), President of North Macedonia since 2019 On 26 April, India will hold the second phase of its general election. This phase will be for Kerala, and parts of Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashta, Manipur, Rajasthan, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP is the main or only NDA force in most of these areas, with them being joined by mainly local parties in the bloc. On the INDIA side, the INC is the largest party, but in certain states they are standing aside for parties with more local popularity, such as Bihar, where the Rashtriya Janata Dal (National People’s Party, RJD) has more sway, or Uttar Pradesh, where more candidates belong to the Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party). Other parties may be popular where there is a different local system, such as in Sikkim.
Droupadi Murmu (BJP), President of India since 2022 On 29 April, Togo will hold parliamentary elections. Togo became a German protectorate known as Togoland in 1884, but was invaded in World War I. Togoland became a League of Nations mandate after the war, split between British Togoland and French Togoland. British Togoland became part of Ghana in 1957. In 1946, by which time the League Mandates had become UN Trust Territories, French Togoland held its first election. The Committee of Togolese Unity (CUT) won a majority of seats for non-French citizens (native Togolese), and it demanded independence. However, they lost ground to the more pro-French Togolese Party of Progress (PTP) and their allies, the Union of Chiefs and Peoples of the North (UCPN) in 1951. The PTP also won the seat in the French parliament off of the CUT. Togolese elections were held again in 1952, with the UCPN and PTP winning a majority together, but the CUT rebounding somewhat. The CUT boycotted the 1955 elections, with the seats split evenly between the UCPN and PTP. A 1956 referendum to become an autonomous republic within the French Union passed with 93.4% support, but the UN rejected this as independence was not an option and thus the trusteeship formally continued. However, Togoland did get more autonomy. A UN mission arrived in 1957, allowing Togolese nationalists to protest angrily. The French responded by firing on the crowd, known as the Pya-Hodo Massacre. UN-sponsored elections were held in 1958 in response to the incident, and the CUT defeated the UCPN and PTP to a majority in 1958. The CUT’s Sylvanus Olympio became Prime Minister. France agreed to full independence, taking effect in 1960. A constitutional referendum in 1961 was passed with 99.6% support, creating a presidential republic and weak parliament. On the same day, presidential elections were held, won by Olympio. The CUT had become the Party for Togolese Unity (PUT) and won every seat, there were no opposition candidates. The post of Prime Minister was abolished. Olympio ruled as an autocrat and dissolved opposition parties. Olympio had no time for the military, believing them to be unnecessary in his plan to develop the country. This led to resentment, and in 1963 they assassinated him in a coup. The Insurrection Committee then installed the exiled opposition leader Nicolas Grunitzky, from the Togloese People’s Movement (MPT), which had split from the PTP in colonial times. A constitutional referendum was again passed with 98.5% support, and an all-party list was approved with 98.6% support; Grunitzky was the only candidate for president. The coup leader Gnassingbé Eyadéma fell out with Grunitzky, and committed another coup in 1967. This time, the National Reconciliation Committee junta would appoint Eyadéma President, and the constitutional process was suspended. In 1972, a referendum allowing Eyadéma to continue passed with 99.9% support. A political party, the Rally for the Togolese People (RPT), was created. In 1979, a referendum restored a constitution, with Togo as a one-party state. 99.9% voted in favour. On the same day, presidential and parliamentary elections saw Eyadema re-elected along with a full slate of RPT lawmakers. In 1985, an RPT parliament was elected again, with Eyadéma re-elected in 1986. Another parliamentary election was held in 1990. The political climate in the early 1990s saw people more emboldened to protest, similar to the situation in Zaire. In 1991, the government negotiated, but tension remained high. A negotiated constitution was put to referendum in 1992, and passed with 99.2% support. However, 1993 presidential elections were boycotted by opposition due to fraud concerns and Eyadéma was re-elected easily. In 1994 parliamentary elections, the opposition did run, with the Action Committee for Renewal (CAR) depriving the RPT of a majority, the overall opposition had a majority in the chamber. Eyadéma named Edem Kodjo from the much smaller Togolese Union for Democracy (UTD) Prime Minister. When he accepted this, the CAR were furious, and broke the agreement. Then, the UTD allied with the RPT, keeping Eyadéma’s allies in power. Kodjo lasted until 1996 when an RPT figure replaced him, after which even nominal opposition participation barely existed. In 1998, Eyadéma was re-elected President with 52.1% support, defeating the Union of Forces for Change (UFC) candidate Gilchrist Olympio, son of Sylvanus Olympio. There were irregularities and the opposition claimed Olympio had run, boycotting 1999 parliamentary elections where no party other than the RPT won seats. In 2002, the opposition boycotted again, and the RPT won most seats. In 2003, Eyadéma won with 57.8% support, beating the UFC’s Emmanuel Bob-Akitani; again the opposition cried foul. Eyadéma died in 2005. His son Faure Gnassingbé replaced him, despite the constitution stating that the Speaker should do so (he was out of the country). Parliament then dismissed the Speaker and appointed Gnassingbé to the role. However, pressure from other West African countries forced him to resign for new elections. He beat Bob-Akitani again with 60.2% of the vote. Again there was violence and accusations of fraud. Negotiations between parties under EU encouragement led to a compromise, with the CAR’s Yawovi Agboyibo becoming Prime Minister in 2006 and elections in 2007. The RPT won a majority and the UFC were the main opposition. In 2010, Gnassingbé won 60.9% of the vote, defeating the UFC’s Jean-Pierre Fabre. Again, the UFC alleged fraud. In 2012, the RPT was replaced by the Union for the Republic (UNIR). They won the 2013 election, with the UFC declining and the Let’s Save Togo Collective (CST) as the main opposition. In 2015, Gnassingbé was re-elected with 58.8% of the vote, beating Fabre, who this time represented the National Alliance for Change (ANC), a UFC split which was part of the CST. In 2018, a boycott was held due to Gnassinbé’s proposed removal of term limits, allowing the UNIR to win easily. Early results in 2020 showed that opposition candidate Agbéyomé Kodjo, of the Patriotic Movement for Democracy and Development (MPDD) could be in the lead, but official results then gave 70.8% to Gnassingbé and Kodjo was placed under house arrest. Later that year, Victoire Tomegah Dogbé became PM. Opposition parties will contest the election, but it seems that the UNIR grip on power is pretty solid at the current time.
Faure Gnassingbé (UNIR), President of Togo in 2005 and again from 2005 Finally, on 30 April, the American consituency of New York’s 26th congressional district will hold a special election. The US has a two-party system, with the liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Republican Party dominating the country. Since the 1990s, New York has been a solidly Democratic or ‘blue’ state, especially in urban and suburban areas. The Republican Donald Trump was elected President in 2016, moving the party in a more right-wing populist direction. However, he lost to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In 2024, a rematch between the two is likely. In 2022 midterm elections, where the governing party is normally punished, the Democrats did better than expected, but lost ground in New York (though were still the largest party in the Empire State). Brian Higgins gained the 27th district for the Democrats in 2004, and with redistricting he became member for the 26th in the 2012 election, winning five more elections after that easily: he won 63.9% of the vote in 2022 compared to the Republican Steven Sams’ 36.0%. Higgins was seen as a pretty unremarkable Democrat and supporter of Joe Biden, but resigned due to what he called increasing “dysfunction” in Congress. Gains in New York helped the Republicans win a very small majority in the 2022 election, but this has led to radical right-wing factions within the party gaining more influence as they can hold the rest of the party hostage. Long negotiations and a number of votes were needed to confirm Republican leader Kevin McCarthy as speaker, and then in 2023 he was removed and replaced by Mike Johnson. The infighting in the Republican caucus and the fact that the Democrats control the Senate and White House mean that the Congress has been very unproductive, unable to pass many bills at all. The local Democrats chose Tim Kennedy, who has served in a safe seat in the state Senate since 2011, defeating an incumbent Democrat who had voted against same-sex marriage. The Republicans have selected town supervisor (local mayor) Gary Dickson. Both have the endorsements of their traditional local allies: the Working Families Party for Kennedy and the Conservative Party of New York State for Dickson. Though Kennedy should win easily, the scale of the margin will show if the Republicans continue to have momentum in New York or not.
Brian Higgins (Democratic), Representative for New York’s 27th district from 2005 to 2013 and New York’s 26th district from 2013 to 2024 -
Cambodia: CPP win another majority
On 25 February, Cambodia held elections to its Senate, with the result being another win for the Cambodian People’s Party.
The facts
The Senate is the upper house of Cambodia, and is indirectly elected from eight regions for six-year terms, making up one to six of the country’s provinces. Regions have between five and ten seats, with a total of 58 elected seats. These are elected by local councillors, council leaders, and national lawmakers using PR. Two additional members are appointed by the National Assembly (lower house), and two more are appointed by the monarch, for a total of 62 seats.
Cambodia factfile:
- Population: 17.1 million (2023)
- Religions: 97.1% Buddhist (mostly Theravada Buddhism), 2.0% Muslim (mostly Sunni), 0.3% Christian, 0.5% None (2019)
- Ethnicities: 95.8% Khmer, 1.8% Cham, 0.6% Chinese, 0.5% Vietnamese, 1.3% Other (2019)
- Type of government: Unitary parliamentary constitutional elective monarchy with an authoritarian dictatorship
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: 23/100 (Not free)
Four parties ran in this election, all of them contesting all 58 seats. In 2018, all 58 seats were won by the conservative nationalist Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which took 96.1% of the vote. They are led by Hun Sen. Having joined the Khmer Rouge which ran Cambodia, he defected to the Vietnamese-backed side which won the Cambodian-Vietnamese War, and in the new Vietnam-installed government (the People’s Republic of Kampuchea) became Minister of Foreign Affairs in 1979. He also became Deputy Prime Minister in 1981. In 1984, the Prime Minister died, and he became Acting Prime Minister; he was confirmed as Prime Minister by the legislature in 1985, ceasing to be Deputy Prime Minister. He continued as Foreign Minister until 1986, and then in 1988, he appointed himself to the role again. In an attempt to drop the ‘red’ image, the country was renamed the State of Cambodia in 1989. Hun Sen continued to be Foreign Minister until 1990. In 1993, he was elected to the National Assembly for Kampong Cham. His party lost that election, but joined a coalition in which he became Second Prime Minister of the new Kingdom of Cambodia. In the 1998 election, he switched constituency to Kandal, and won the election, becoming Prime Minister again instead of Second Prime Minister. In 2015, he became President of the CPP. He stepped down as Prime Minister after the 2023 election, but became Chairman of the Supreme Advisory Council of the King of Cambodia.
The only other party to run in 2018 that is returning is the centre-right and royalist FUNCINPEC (National United Front for an Independent, Neutral, Peaceful and Cooperative Cambodia). They won 2.4% of the vote and no seats. They are led by Norodom Chakravuth. The son of the party’s leader, he inherited the party from his father in 2022. In 2023, he was elected to the National Assembly for Phnom Penh.
Two new parties have emerged at this election. One is the liberal Khmer Will Party. They are led by veteran opposition activist Kong Molika.
Finally, the liberal Nation Power Party is running in its first election. It is led by another opposition activist, Sun Chanthy.
Two seats were appointed by the National Assembly, and another two by the monarch in 2018.
Though he resigned as Prime Minister in 2023, Hun Sen’s political ambitions continued, hoping to become President of the Senate after this election: the deputy head of state behind the King. The opposition parties have had their attempts to run frustrated by court rulings and complicated registration demands. Opposition politicians eligible to vote also stated that they were targeted for bribes and intimidation by the CPP, which denied this.
In the end, the Cambodian People’s Party won 55 seats (down three) from 85.9% of the vote. In its first election, the Khmer Will Party won three seats from 11.9%. The Nation Power Party won no seats from 2.0% in its debut, while FUNCINPEC remained without seats with 0.2% of the vote. 0.3% of votes were invalid or blank, while turnout was 99.9%. The remaning four seats were appointed two each by the National Assembly and monarch.
The CPP was strongest in every region, and it had its highest vote share in Region 7 (Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Speu, Preah Sihanouk, Koh Kong, Pursat), with 90.5%. Its lowest was in Region 4 (Banteay Meachey, Battambang, Siem Reap, Pailin, and Oddar Meanchey) at 78.0%. The Khmer Will Party won one seat each in two regions. Their best total was Region 2 (Kampong Cham, Tboung Khmum) where they won 17.5%. They also won a seat in Region 6 (Prey Veng, Svay Rieng) and Region 4. Their worst total was in Region 7 (8.7%). The Nation Power Party ranged from 7.7% in Region 7 to no votes in Region 1 (Phnom Penh). FUNCINPEC’s highest total was 0.6% in Region 8 (Kampong Thom, Preah Vihear, Kratie, Strung Treng, Ratnakiri, Mondulkiri). It got no votes in Regions 5 (Kampot, Kep, Takeo) and 7.
The CPP expressed pleasant surprise and the strength of their victory, and Hun Sen is expected to become Senate President. The opposition were happy to get representation, viewing it as a small victory.
Analysis
No matter your age, Cambodia has been going through a bumpy ride politically through your living memory. Another constant in this time has been the role of Hun Sen, who has led Cambodia through the communist and post-Communist period. Cambodia was a significant empire, after the Siege of Angkor in 1431, the Khmer Empire fell. It was reduced to a vassal state, fought over between Siam and Vietnam. To avoid this situation, they requested protection from France. France had recently colonised Vietnam, and this was enough to wade off the Siamese. Cambodia was now a French protectorate. In 1887, it was joined with three Vietnamese regions controlled by France: Annam, Tonkin, and Cochinchina, in a union called French Indochina. Though it was effectively controlled by Japan during World War II, the French system remained until 1945 when a Japan-controlled Kingdom of Kampuchea was proclaimed. Japan surrendered that year, but Cambodian nationalists resisted the restoration of French rule. The French thus allowed Cambodia to have a Constitution and Parliament in the new French Union, designed to keep the Empire together but with various colonies getting self-rule. Elections were held in 1946, won by the left-wing nationalist Democratic Party over the conservative and monarchist Liberal Party. The same ocurred in 1947. France’s economic ability and will to control Cambodia was fading, and independence was formally accpeted in 1953, by which time Cambodia had already been recognised by a number of countries. The Democrats won the 1951 election. Control was officially passed over in the 1954 Geneva Conference. After this, the royal family soon cracked down on political activity. They merged a few parties into the Sangkum (Community), and rigged elections. King Norodom Sihanouk abdicated to lead the party and thus country. They won every seat in 1955 and 1958 election, and in 1962 and 1966 they were the only party. In 1960, a vote made Sihanouk Chief of State with no term limits, but he had to balance right-wing nationalists with those inspired by socialism.
After independence, Norodom Sihanouk basically ruled as a dictator until a 1970 coup The right-wing general, Prime Minister Lon Nol moved first. Sihanouk had moved close to communist North Vietnam, irritating right-wingers, ruled as an autocrat, and the economic system was deterorating. In 1970, with Sihanouk out of the country, anti-North Vietnamese riots were whipped up. This soon turned into a coup, and the National Assembly formally deposed Sihanouk. The Khmer Republic was declared with the monarchy abolished, while a government-in-exile called the Royal Government of the National Union of Kampuchea (GRUNK) operated in China; as well as the royal house, it also included the Communist Party (nicknamed the Khmer Rouge), who were also forced out by the right-wing government. A new constitution came in 1972, with Lon Nol as President of the Republic. In elections, his Social Republican Party won every seat amongst a boycott of most opposition. This was after a presidential election in which Lon Nol was surprised to come up against the Democratic Party’s In Tam and the conservative Republican Party’s Keo An; if he had not rigged the election, In Tam may well have won.
Lon Nol’s coup in 1970 forced the royal house into exile, and into league with the communists The Khmer Republic inherited the Cambodian Civil War from the royal government. It began in 1968, when a Khmer Rouge insurgency began. It spilled into the Vietnam War; Sihanouk’s government had sided with North Vietnam and forces from them, and the South Vietnamese pro-North Vietnam guerilla Viet Cong operated in Cambodia. However, Sihanouk was losing comfort with them, and after the deposition of him, the Republic demanded their removal. Thus, as well as a domestic civil war it was part of the Vietnam War as well. In 1970, the Civil War between the royal house and Khmer Rouge became a civil war between the Republic and its allies the United States and South Vietnam on one side; and a combination of GRUNK and the Khmer Rouge known as the National United Front of Kampuchea (FUNK), guerilla forces known as the Khmer Rumdo (Liberation Khmer), North Vietnam and the Viet Cong on the other. After the coup, Hun Sen joined the Khmer Rouge due to Sihanouk’s involvement. Phnom Penh fell to FUNK in 1975. Though GRUNK was a coalition between the communists and royals, the communists had provided most of the fighters, and Khmer Rouge General-Secretary Pol Pot became the leader, dominating the alliance. However, Sihanouk had a role as President of the State Presidium, making him formal head of state. When he saw Pol Pot’s forced labour and collectivisation, he resigned in shock. Without the royal part of the alliance, the country was renamed Democratic Kampuchea and pressed ahead with communism. Elections were held with only FUNK candidates on the ballot. The policies in this period led to huge numbers of deaths, both due to starvation and political execution, known as the Cambodian genocide.
Pol Pot ruled Democratic Kampuchea after victory in the Cambodian Civil War Kampuchea and Vietnam’s relations were tested in this time. The Khmer Rouge worried that Vietnam (which had been united in 1976) would try to dominate the region in some sort of federation. In 1977, they launched a surprise attack on Vietnam. Though negotiation was tried, it failed, and in 1978 Vietnam decided to remove Pol Pot. An invasion by Vietnam and Cambodian dissidents called the Kampuchean United Front for National Salvation (FUNSK) overran him in the Cambodian-Vietnamese War and removed the Khmer Rouge from power. Hun Sen was one of the FUNSK leaders. However, they continued to wage an insurgent campaign, and hold international recognition including the UN seat. Meanwhile, Vietnam set up a puppet People’s Republic of Kampuchea (PRK) which actually held power. Elections were held where the Kampuchean People’s Revolutionary Party (KPRP) won all seats. Hun Sen was an important KPRP politician in this time. Meanwhile, the government in exile reorganised in 1982 as the Coalition Government of Democratic Kampuchea (CGDK). This had three main parts: the Khmer Rouge, the Khmer People’s National Liberation Front (KPNLF), who were right-wing nationalists that opposed Vietnamese involvement, and FUNCINPEC who were Sihanouk’s men. The conflict between the CGDK on one side and the PRK and Vietnam on the other also spilled out into Thailand and China on occasion, with both countries being against Vietnam. In 1989, with communism collapsing, Hun Sen (who was by now PRK Prime Minister) renamed the country State of Cambodia as Vietnamese influence waned. Economic liberalisation and the return of some traditional Buddhism was permitted. The KPRP became the Cambodian People’s Party in 1991. In 1991, the Paris Peace Agreements were signed by a number of parties to end the Cambodian-Vietnamese War. This included both the State of Cambodia and CGDK, and nineteen countries including Vietnam, China, Thailand, and France. A peacekeeping mission called the United Nations Transitional Authority in Cambodia was formed, which included a number of countries such as France, China, and Thailand, but not Vietnam. Elections were held in 1993.
Flag of the UN Transitional Authority in Cambodia There was a hung parliament, with neither FUNCINPEC nor the CPP winning a majority, thanks to the presence of two small parties: the Buddhist Liberal Democratic Party and MOULINAKA (Movement for the National Liberation of Kampuchea). Thus, a coalition agreement was signed: FUNCINPEC leader Norodom Ranariddh, son of Sihanouk, became First Prime Minister, while Hun Sen became Second Prime Minister. A new constitution restored constitutional monarchy. However, squabbling between FUNCINPEC and the CPP continued. This was because the CPP mostly controlled the state, and Ranariddh felt marginalised. FUNCINPEC and CPP supporters began to clash, with Khmer Rouge fighters also getting involved. This battle was won by the CPP and FUNCINPEC ministers were executed. Elections were held again in 1998, and the CPP just won a majority in an election with many irregularities. FUNCINPEC remained a viable opposition, while a new liberal Sam Rainsy Party (SRP, named after its leader) came third. The Buddhist and MOULINAKA parties won no seats. Hun Sen became sole Prime Minister, and began to consolidate power. The CPP won again in 2003, with FUNCINPEC making losses and narrowly finishing ahead of the SRP. The CPP then invited FUNCINPEC into government again. In the 2008 election, the CPP made more gains. FUNCINPEC collapsed due to a split; the pro-government official party, and the splitter Norodom Ranariddh Party (NRP). The Sam Rainsy Party thus became the main opposition, and the remaining seats were split between the opposition Human Rights Party (HRP), the NRP, and FUNCINPEC. The SRP and HRP then merged into the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). The CPP lost 22 seats to the CNRP, which also picked up four from the two royalist parties, who were knocked out in 2013. The belief that the CPP only held on due to rigging led to protests and a government crackdown.
Protests in 2013 over the CPP’s defeat of the CNRP in the general election Though the crisis ended and the CNRP took their seats in parliament, repression continued and in 2017, the CNRP was dissolved. Thus, the CPP had no real opposition in the 2018 election and won every seat. After this, the SRP revived itself as the Candlelight Party, but was not allowed to run in 2023 elections due to failure to submit documents. This was seen as politically motivated, and the CPP won 120 of 125 seats, with the other five going to FUNCINPEC. After this, Hun Sen stepped down and made Hun Manet, his son Prime Minister. Manet in 2024 promoted his brother Hun Many to Deputy Prime Minister, thus showing that Cambodia has dynastic leadership. Senate elections were first held in 2006, where the CPP won 45 seats, FUNCINPEC ten, and the SRP two. In 2012, the CPP won 46 and the SRP eleven, while in 2018 the CPP won all 58 elected seats. The election was guaranteed to give the CPP a victory. The opposition can take heart from the fact that the Khmer Will Party, a proxy of the Candlelight Party, took three seats. Under state repression, it does not look like the CPP/Hun dynasty will be challenged through parliamentary means soon.
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