2024 has been dubbed the “year of elections” by many media an academic sources. It is a year in which 40% of the global population is able to vote for their government. This does not include the inevitable countries where a snap election will be held, local elections, referendums, and by-elections. April shows no sign of slowing down.
On 2 April, Pakistan held Senate elections. The country has had a bumpy road since independence from the UK in 1947. A number of military coups were held, but the latest saw democracy restored in 2002. A multi-party system has emerged in Pakistan, with three main parties: the centre-right Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N, the N stands for its founder, Nawaz Sharif); the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and the centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, Pakistan Movement for Justice), which is based on the populist authority of cricketing legend Imran Khan. After the 2018 election to the National Assembly (lower house), no party won a majority but Khan formed a government. In 2022, Khan was removed following a vote of no confidence. In response, Khan produced a diplomatic cable from the US, which criticised Khan for visiting Russia, stated that it would isolate him from the US and Europe, but this was personally linked with Khan rather than Pakistan as a whole, and that “all would be forgiven” should Pakistan change its leader. This riled up his supporters that viewed his removal as a US-backed coup, but also breached state secrets legislation, and started legal proceedings against him. Further charges for corruption were seen as politically motivated by supporters, as was another conviction for an un-Islamic marriage. Since then, the PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif has served as Prime Minister with support from the PPP. The brother of Nawaz Sharif, who was banned for his own corruption charges and then fled to the UK on supposed medical grounds, Shehbaz’s brother was allowed to return since the Shehbaz premiership began, something in itself viewed as political. In 2024 general elections, the PTI couldn’t run as a party (only as independents) because of a failure to hold intra-party elections, another thing seen as a dirty trick by Khan’s supporters. Even so, the PTI were the largest party in 2024, but many of his supporters say they would have won bigger if not for interference. The Senate is the upper house, with half of the seats chosen every three years. They are elected from the provincial legislatures of Pakistan’s four provinces and the federal capital territory.
On the same day, the American city of Anchorage held its mayoral election. The United States has a two-party system, with the Democratic Party (D) representing the liberal wing of American politics, and the Republican Party (R) more conservative. Though mayoral elections in Anchorage use a non-partisan system, the party affiliation of politicians is known. Incumbent Dave Bronson (R) is running for re-election. Considered a fierce conservative, he won narrowly against Democrat Forrest Dunbar in 2021. Independent Suzanne LaFrance, former chair of the city’s legislature, seemed to be his main opponent in this race. As early results come in, it looks likely Bronson and LaFrance will head to a runoff.
On 4 April, Kuwait held general elections. Kuwait became a sheikhdom in 1752, and in 1899 decided to become a British protectorate to ward off the Ottoman Empire. This lasted until 1961, when the treaties ended, leading to full independence and the sheikh becoming the Emir of Kuwait. Elections for a Constitutional Convention were held that year, with the first regular elections in 1963. However, the parliament only has limited power. The Emir appoints the prime minister, who appoints a cabinet, meaning that power is vested in the royal house. After 1963, elections were held every four years until 1975. In 1976 the Emir Sabah Al-Salim Al-Sabah suspended the constitution and parliament, claiming it “acted against the nation”, and elections did not happen until 1981, by which time he had died. In 1985, elections were held again, but another suspension took place, this time by Emir Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah. Eventually, elections were held in 1990, but only for half of the body, amidst protests. In 1990, Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait, and the US stated that help would only come with the restoration of democracy. Thus, after the US liberated Kuwait in 1991, elections were held in 1992, with anti-government candidates performing well. Elections were held again in 1996, 1999, and 2003. In 2006 elections, women could vote for the first time. Though political parties are not legal in Kuwait, some quasi-party “political groups” started to emerge. This included the centre-left Popular Action Bloc. Elections were held again in 2008 and 2009; in the latter case, the parliament was dissolved because the govermnent had resigned to avoid questioning: this was supposedly “abuse of democracy” by the parliament to challenge a royal-backed administration like this. Elections were held in February 2012, but court declared them “invalid” because the old body should not have been dissolved, and held another one in December. These were also annulled, and elections were held again in 2013. Elections were held again in 2016, 2020, and 2022. However, the 2022 election was held again as the dissolution of the 2020 parliament was ruled invalid. This was seen by opposition as an attempt to stifle them, as they had criticised the government and forced some out in no-confidence votes. The opposition still won a majority. 41 of fifty members were not connected to any political group. This time, the body was dissolved because an MP “insulted the Emir”, Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who took the role in December following the death of his half-brother. The results showed nothing that would indicate an end to the dispute between parliament and Emir.
On the same day, Belarus held elections to its upper house, the Council of the Republic. Belarus was part of the Kievan Rus’ state from which both Russia and Belarus derive their name. However, this empire waned and by the thirteenth century, it was part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. In the Union of Krewo, the rulers of Lithuania and Poland were joined in marriage, and in 1569 the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was formally founded, which Belarus was part of. However, in the eighteenth century its power waned and Russia took advantage, taking Belarus near the end of the century. After the communist revolution in Russia (1917), they signed an unequal treaty with Germany to exit World War I, losing Belarus. Both the Poles and Russians attempted to suppress the Belarusian language and assimilate it into their own, but in the nineteenth century Belarusian nationalism was sparked. A German puppet state, the Belarusian People’s Republic, was created, but then went into exile. After further developments, Belarus would be divided between Poland and Soviet Russia. Lithuania and “Belorussia” were part of the same republic, but Lithuania managed to win independence. It became the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (Byelorussian SSR), which joined the Soviet Union when it was created in 1922. The Soviet Union invaded Poland and took the rest of Belarus in 1939. After Germany’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union, Belarus was occupied until 1944. After the end of World War II, Poland took German lands, but the Soviet Union kept most of Byelorussia, giving it its current borders. The Soviet leadership encouraged Russian-speakers to move there, successfully attempting a decline in Belarusian national identity: even today, Russian is the most common language in Belarus, and the current government encourages Russification. Under Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet Union began to decline, and different ethnicities began fighting for independence, and an opposition, nationalist Belarusian Popular Front was tolerated. In 1991, strikes related to price increases spiralled, and by the end of the year, the country was independent, with the name Republic of Belarus. A presidential election was held in 1994. It was won easily by independent Alexander Lukashenko. Lukashenko had made a name for himself as an anti-corruption crusader, and as a populist. He promoted the Russian language, close links with Russia, and changed the state symbols back to those resembling Soviet-era ones. Another referendum in 1996 further gave Lukashenko initiative. By the time of the next presidential election in 2001 (which was extended) by the referendum, he had pretty undisputed power. He won over 80% of the vote in every other election: in 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020. In 2020, he had a challenge to his rule as the popular opposition figure, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, accused him of cheating her out of a win, leading to mass protests. However, these were suppressed, and Tsikhanouskaya leads a sort of government-in-exile. Though Lukashenko was seen as pro-Russian, he also wanted to play the West off of Russia to an extent. However, after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, Belarus has been seen as little more than a client state of Russia by the West. A referendum three days after the invasion allowed Russian nuclear weapons to be placed inside Belarusian territory. Parliamentary elections in 2024 saw all seats won by pro-government candidates, and these indirect elections were the same. Lukashenko will try to tighten the state apparatus to avoid a repeat of the protests when he runs again in 2025.
On 6 April, Slovakia held the second round of its presidential election. When Czechoslovakia’s autocratic communist system was dying, different movements emerged in the Czech and Slovak parts of the federation, which then became political parties. The Slovak leader was Vladímir Mečiar, whose intransigence to the Czechs was key for Slovakia getting independence. He became Slovakia’s first Prime Minister, and was accused of corruption, and even autocracy in his time. He was defeated by a large coalition of opposition parties in 1998, which lasted until 2006, when Robert Fico of the Direction – Social Democracy (or Smer in Slovak) won the election. Though pretty much every country in the EU has a party like this, using a red colour, a rose in its logo, and a name like “Labour”, “Social Democrats”, or “Socialist”; which were all basically the same be they in Norway or Portugal, this party was suspended from the Party of European Socialists (PES) after going into coalition with the hard-right Slovak Nationalist Party (SNS). Fico was removed after a large coalition was needed to do in 2010, but this only lasted until 2012, when Smer won a majority. In 2016, he lost his majority and was forced into coalition with the SNS again. Fico lasted until 2018, when a journalist, Ján Kuciak was murdered whilst looking for Slovak connections with the Italian mafia. This led to huge protests and Fico resigned, with his deputy Peter Pellegrini replacing him. Fico was considered a social conservative and populist despite his party’s red (or at least pink) name. The anti-corruption and broadly conservative Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) party won in 2020, but they had a bumpy ride as well and new elections were needed in 2023. By then, Pellegrini had split from Smer, forming his own party, known as Voice – Social Democracy (or Hlas). This was meant to be a more pro-European alternative to Smer, although it still was reluctant to adopt social liberalism in Slovakia. This allowed Smer to be taken over by Fico again, and become even more socially conservative, pro-Russian, and taking a similar line to Hungary regarding the European Union: not threatening to leave, but simulataneously critical. He is also populist in style and a large critic of the media. With OĽaNO thumped in the election, Smer became the largest party, and joined coalition with Hlas and the SNS, allowing Fico to become Prime Minister again. Pellegrini became Speaker, and both Smer and Hlas were suspended from PES; the parties began to appear pretty indistinguishable. The main opposition was in the form of Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal party in both economic and cultural senses of the word. It was PS politician Zuzana Čaputová who was elected President in 2019, defeating Smer-backed Maroš Šefčovič. Šefčovič basically ran a conservative campaign in that race. Čaputová did not run again, and two candidates reached a runoff. Peter Pellegrini, running with Smer and Hlas’ endorsement, won 37.0%, and came second. The opposition selected Ivan Korčok, an independent diplomat who was Minister of Foreign Affairs, and won 42.5%. Štefan Harabin, a former judge considered to be on the right but without party, won 11.7%. Most of these votes were thought to go to Pellegrini, who is expected to win in the second round. However, polls tightened in the days before the election. This led to a closer race, but Pellegrini still won with 53.1% of the vote, helping the government’s power.
On 7 April, Poland held the first round of local elections. Poland, like Czechoslovakia, was part of the Warsaw Pact of the Soviet Union and the latter’s satellite states. All had a one-party system led by a communist party. Poland’s Solidarity Movement began as an independent trade union, apart from the government. This spearheaded the opposition to communist rule, and partially-fair elections were allowed in 1989, where the union’s political movement, the Solidarity Citizens’ Committee or KO “S”, won nearly every contested seat. The communist system ended when the communist satellite parties broke and backed the KO “S”, allowing a non-communist government to be formed. The communist party had basically disappeared by the time the 1990 presidential election was held, which was won by veteran solidarity leader Lech Wałęsa. Howver, Poland would become a parliamentary country, albeit with a stronger presidency than many similar countries in Europe (including Slovakia): in part because such a popular figure had that office. The first election in 1991 saw a very splintered parliament with 29 parties winning seats. The liberal wing of the KO “S” under Prime Minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki had split into the Democratic Union, which won the most seats. Meanwhile, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) emerged as a coalition of the left, and many ex-communists. Ten parties even won double-figure totals including the right-wing Catholic Electoral Action (WAK), and the agrarian centrist Polish People’s Party (PSL): the rump of the KO “S” came ninth. This messy situation led to three Prime Ministers before another election was held in 1993. This time a tough threshold was introduced of 5% for parties and 8% for coalitions, and only seven won seats: the SLD, the PSL, the Democratic Union, the centre-left Labour Union, the right-wing Confederation of Independent Poland, the centre-right Nonpartisan Bloc In Support of Reforms (BBWR), and the German Minority Electoral Committee. An SLD-PSL government was formed in this time, although there were still three PMs because of squabbling between the two. In 1997, a number of parties coalesced around the Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) coalition, which won the election. The agrarian-socialist coalition was damaged, as even though the SLD held mostly firm, the PSL got battered. The centrist Freedom Union, which succeeded the Democratic Union (UW), the conservative Movement for the Reconstruction of Poland (ROP), and the German Minority also won seats. This led to an unbroken four-year term in office for Jerzy Buzek in an AWS-UW coalition. The next election was in 2001, by which time people had had enough of the AWS following a difficult period. An SLD-Labour Union alliance won the most seats, with the Civic Platform (PO) emerging as the main opposition, being a liberal, centre-right split from existing parties. The more populist left Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland (SRP) party came third ahead of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS), which split from the AWS. It was the brainchild of the Kaczyński brothers, Lech and Jarosław; the former being Justice Minister in the Buzek government. The PSL, the right-wing League of Polish Families (LPR), and the German minority also won seats, but the AWS lost all 201 seats in parliament. The agrarian-left coalition was revived. In 2005, the SLD was smashed and came fourth. PiS were top ahead of the PO and SRP. The LPR, PSL, and German Minority also won seats. Also that year, Lech Kaczyński became President, beating PO leader Donald Tusk in a runoff. Jarosław Kaczyński became Prime Minister in 2006, thus creating a sibling duo of President and PM. However, their coalition with the SRP and LPR was broken in 2007 when the SRP leader was linked with corruption. In the resulting election, the PO beat PiS. The Left and Democrats (LiD) which included the SLD, the PSL, and the German Minority also won seats. Donald Tusk became PM in a PO-PSL coalition, and served a stable term until 2011. In 2010, a plane crash in Russia killed 96 people including Lech Kaczyński. Thus, Jarosław Kaczyński ran for president instead of his brother, but lost to PO candidate Bronisław Komorowski. In 2011, Tusk was re-elected (something that had pretty much never happened since the return of democracy), with the PO ahead of the PiS again. Palikot’s Movement (RP), a more left-liberal party created by a PO splitter, was third, with the PSL, SLD, and German Minority also winning seats. Tusk left to become President of the European Council in 2014. However, in 2015 President Komoroswki lost to PiS’s Andrzej Duda. The general election saw PiS win a majority, ahead of PO. The other parties to win seats were the right-wing Kukiz’15, (named after its leader Paweł Kukiz), the centrist Modern, the PSL, and the German Minority: not a single left-wing party won a seat. After this, Jarosław Kaczyński would not become PM, but prefer to run things as PiS leader. Beata Szydło became PM, but was removed in 2017 simply because she lost Kaczyński’s confidence. This was due to the fact that relations with other EU countries, and the EU itself declined in her tenure. The PiS government was strongly criticised in Brussels because of certain illiberal moves: especially the negating of the independence of the judiciary, and the neutrality of the public television station. Mateusz Morawiecki became PM in 2017. In 2019, PiS’ United Right coalition won another majority: this consisted of PiS, the far-right United Poland, the centre-right Agreement, and some independents and smaller parties. PO led a “Civic Coalition” (KO), with Modern and other small parties, but this flopped and came second. The Left coalition won some representation, with the SLD, centre-left liberal Spring, and others winning seats, while the PSL-led Polish Coalition came fourth. The Confederation Liberty and Independence, which mixed right-wing populism and libertarianism, came fifth, with the last seat going to the German Minority. This did set in stone the main five parties in poland: PiS and the Confederation on the “right”, and the PO, Left, and PSL on the “opposition” (which can hardly be called the “left”, but may be called the liberal or progressive camp). In 2020 Duda was narrowly re-elected against the KO’s Rafał Trzaskowski. As time went on, Poland’s opposition began to view their position as fighting for democracy itself, while PiS and the state media talked about them defending Poland from hostile forces in the EU, media, and global elites (like Fico’s Slovakia and Hungary, PiS did not want Poland to leave the EU but frequently clashed with Brussels). In 2021, the Agreement left the coalition, costing them their majority. The United Right coalition, including PiS, the renamed Sovereign Poland (formerly United Poland), and Kukiz’15 still came first, but were dented in 2023. The KO, mostly of the PO but other smaller parties like Modern, were second. The PSL formed an alliance with the new liberal Poland 2050 party called the Third Way (TD) which came third. The SLD and Spring merged into the New Left, which alongside the Left Together party formed The Left coalition which came fourth. The Confederation and its ally, the right-wing New Hope, were fifth. KO, TD, and The Left formed a coalition, with the returning Donald Tusk as PM, despite Duda trying to delay this. Duda has proved a thorn in the Tusk government’s side, trying to block a number of bills. Notably, Tusk’s government removed most figures associated with the state televsion company, despite an attempt from old figures and PiS politicians to occupy the building, now suddenly concerned with media fairness, which had been the cry of the opposition to them for the last eight years. It is this messy situation in which these elections, last held in 2018, take place. It is the first test for the Tusk administration, with all sub-national bodies and mayoralties being elected. Independents normally hoover up a lot of seats here, and the PSL do better than national elections. In the end, it was a pretty good day for PiS, but the government held on to the main urban centres. In rural areas, PiS did a good job of mobilising voters.
On 10 April, South Korea held parliamentary elections. Korea had traditionally been a kingdom of its own and was known as a “hermit kingdom” thanks to its isolationism, although this waned as influence was fought over by great powers. After the Japanese victory in the Russo-Japanese War, Japan quickly moved to make Korea a protectorate in 1905, and then in 1910 a part of Japan. However, after the defeat of Japan in World War II, Korea was divided into Soviet (northern) and American (southern) areas, before a negotiation for a new government would be created. However, the Soviet Union refused to let the UN team into northern areas to hold elections, and so the new UN-backed government only ruled in the former American area. Instead, in the Soviet area, different elections were held with a communist autocratic government. After a stalemate in the Korean War, both sides continued to consider themselves the sole government of all of Korea (although North Korea dropped their goal of peaceful unification in 2024), but the Republic of Korea in practice only controls South Korea, and always has. The US military elections of 1946 were the first held in what would become South Korea, and then the 1948 Constitutional Assembly elections. That year, nearly half of the seats were taken by independents, but the conservative National Association for the Rapid Realisation of Korean Independence (NARRKI) won the most seats of any party, with the liberal bourgeois (that is to say, of the traditional landed gentry, and in practice right-wing) Korea Democratic Party (KDP) second. NARRKI leader Syngman Rhee was named President by the body, and the Republic of Korea was proclaimed. In 1950, the KDP had merged to form the Democratic Nationalist Party (DNP), and they and the Korea Nationalist Party (KNP), which was inspired by the Chinese nationalist government on Taiwan, won the most seats, followed by NARRKI, who after independence had become simply the National Association. Realising he would lose an indirect election, Rhee passed a constitutional amendment under duress to make the 1952 election direct. He merged NARRKI with some other organisations, including the far-right, to form the Liberal Party (liberal here basically meant anti-communist and little else). However, the far-right influence soon was dropped, and he ruled as a conservative autocrat, winning the election with 74.6% support. In 1954, the Liberal Party won a majority, with most other seats going to independents, but the DNP, National Association (which stayed extant despite the formation of the Liberal Party), and KNP won seats. Rhee defeated Cho Bong-am, a liberal independent, in 1956, but Cho’s 30.0% was a surprise; in 1959 he was executed for espionage. The DNP became the Democratic Party in 1955, a liberal conservative reformist party. The Liberals won a majority in 1958, with the Democrats the main opposition. In March 1960, Rhee had gotten a constitutional amendment passed to exempt himself from term limits, and his Democratic opponent died a month before the election. However, the Democrats had momentum in the vice-presidential election, and when official results showed their candidate Chang Myon on just 17.5%, protests erupted, especially when a young protester’s body was discovered. The police were ordered to shoot, and this only caused further protests. Eventually they lowered their weapons and Rhee had no recourse but to resign. The Democrats won a landslide in the election, and the parliament elected Democratic leader Yun Posun as president. A parliamentary system was established, with Chang Myon as PM. However, instability in this led to a military coup led by General Park Chung Hee, Chairman of the Supreme Council for National Reconstruction. In 1963, the constitutional order was restored, but the only difference was Park ruling as a civilian dictator instead of a military one (under American pressure to cut off aid if he did not). He formed a Democratic Republican Party (DRP), while his opponents formed the Civil Rule Party (CRP). Park narrowly beat Yun (46.7% to 45.1%) in presidential elections in 1963, but easily beat the CRP in legislative elections, both of which had the regime’s finger on the scale. By the next set in 1967, the CRP had merged into the New Democratic Party (NDP). Park beat Yun again, and the DRP won a majority again. In 1971, Park beat NDP candidate Kim Dae-jung, and Kim still managed to get over 45% of the vote. The NDP also made gains in parliamentary elections. Park was threatened, and in 1972 launched a self-coup called the October Restoration. Among changes were an electoral college with no parties, and all of those elected voted for Park. A third of the seats in parliament were also elected by the college after being chosen by the President, though DRP and NDP members were also elected. Park was assassinated in 1979 by a close confidant, and his Prime Minister Choi Kyu-hah was elected to finish his term. However, the military leader Chun Doo-Hwan took control in a coup, and another coup months later by the same led to Chun being elected President unanimously. He allowed political parties for the 1981 election, forming his own Democratic Justice Party (DJP), while liberals formed the Democratic Korea Party (DKP). Chun was re-elected president by a DJP-dominated Electoral College, while the DJP beat the DKP to a majority in parliamentary elections in 1981. In 1985, the DJP won another majority. The New Korean Democratic Party (NKDP), who viewed the DKP as merely a satellite and themselves as the “true opposition”, beat the DKP to second. Mass protests began in 1987 and brought about fair elections later that year. However, the DJP candidate Roh Tae-woo still won, with the opposition split between veteran opposition leader Kim Young-sam from the Reunification Democratic Party (RDP), and Kim Dae-jung, who formed the Peace Democratic Party (PDP). The conservative, pro-Park New Democatic Republican Party came fourth. In 1988, the DJP won general elections ahead of those three, with the PDP the largest opposition. The DJP then merged with the RDP and New Democratic Republican Party to form the Democratic Liberal Party (DLP). The PDP renamed and then merged to form the Democratic Party. The DLP lost the majority it had gained through mergers in 1992, but still beat the Democrats. The DLP candidate in 1992 was Kim Young-sam, once of the opposition, and he beat the Democrat Kim Dae-jung. Businessman Chung Ju-yung also ran a strong third party campaign from the centre-right Unification National Party. In 1996, the DLP (which had renamed itself to the New Korea Party or NKP) came first again. Kim Dae-jung had retired, but then came back and formed his own National Congress for New Politics (NCNP). The right-wing United Liberal Democrats (ULD) beat the official Democrats (who had merged into the United Democratic Party). The NKP then merged with the United Democrats to form the Grand National Party (GNP). However, their candidate Lee Hoi-chang lost to the NCNP’s Kim Dae-jung, who finally won over 25 years since his first crack at the top job. Former judge Lee In-je had a strong third-party bid. In 2000 parliament was split, with the GNP beating the Alliance of DJP: a coalition between the NCNP merger known as the Millenium Democratic Party (MDP) and the United Liberal Democrats (DJP were the leaders’ initials). The GNP was ahead by just one seat. However, in 2002, the MDP’s Roh Moo-hyun still beat the GNP candidate Lee Hoi-chang. Roh left the MDP to form the Uri Party (Our Party), for which the GNP and MDP tried to impeach him. However, this meant in 2004 the MDP lost nearly all support, with the Uri Party winning a majority and the GNP in opposition. In 2007, GNP candidate Lee Myung-bak won the presidency easily, with the Uri Party having become the Grand Unified Democratic New Party (GUDNP) and saw their candidate Chung Dong-young under perform. Lee Hoi-chang ran as an independent this time but still performed well in third. In 2008, the GNP won a majority. The GUDNP had merged into the Democratic Party, which lost seats and became the opposition. In 2012, the GNP renamed to the Saenuri Party (New Frontier Party). The Democratic Party merged with a small party to become the Democratic United Party (DUP). Saenuri won a majority, but the DUP made gains. In the presidential election, Saenuri candidate Park Geun-hye, daughter of Park Chung Hee, narrowly beat DUP candidate Moon Jae-in. The DUP had renamed, merged, and renamed again to form the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), which won the most seats in 2016 elections, with one more than Saenuri. The centrist People Party also did well in third. In 2016, Park was impeached, and in 2017, removed for abuse of power and corruption. The election saw the DPK’s Moon easily beat Saenuri (which was renamed the Liberty Korea Party or LKP) candidate Hong Joon-pyo and People Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. A new system was introduced for the 2020 parliamentary election, which was meant to help smaller parties. However, the big two parties got around this by introducing satellite parties. The DPK and its satellite Platform Party won a majority. The LKP had merged to form the United Future Party (UFP), which was the opposition along with its satellite Future Korea Party. The UFP then renamed itself the People Power Party (PPP). In 2022, PPP candidate Yoon Suk Yeol narrowly beat the DPK’s Lee Jae-myung. At the time, there was some dissatisfaction with the DPK. Notably, the PPP had managed to tap into rising anti-feminist sentiment amongst young men in the country, while the DPK’s own credentials were rocked by accusations that the DPK Mayors of Seoul and Busan had been accused of sexual harrassment, leading to by-elections where the PPP won big. Yoon’s approval ratings took a hit due to inflation but are currently pretty decent, hovering between 35% and 40%. The DPK are still ahead of the PPP in the constituency vote for the election. For the proportional vote, the satellite parties are being used: for the DKP the Democratic Alliance of Korea (DAK), and for the PPP, the People Future Party (PFP). Controversial progressive former Justice Minister Cho Kuk has formed his own party, the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP). This is only going to contest the proportional seats (of which there are far less than constituencies), where it is expected to be the main opposition to the PFP, with the DAK taking a backseat. This election was a big test for the PPP and Yoon, and a chance for both them and the opposition to get some momentum, but the next presidential election is not until 2027. In the end, the DPK won a big majority, and also came second ahead of the RKP for the PR vote. The PPP was in gloomy moods at the end of the election night, while the DPK and RKP went on the attack.
On 13 April, the Australian constituency of Cook held a by-election. Australia started with three parties, the left-of-centre Labor Party, and the Protectionist and Free Trade Parties. These merged to form the Liberal Party, and then after a series of mergers, splits, and rebranding, finished at the Liberal name again. In rural areas, they are joined in Coalition (and sometimes competition) with the National Party. The Coalition is the main conservative force compared to Labor, a social democratic party. Cook is in the state of New South Wales, having been created as a safe Liberal seat in 1969, the year John Gorton’s Coalition narrowly held on to their majority. Don Dobie was elected as Liberal MP with a big swing to Labor, and in 1972, Gough Whitlam’s victory, Dobie lost narrowly to Labor’s Ray Thorburn. Thorburn just beat Dobie in a 1974 rematch as Whitlam won another majority, but in 1975’s Coalition landslide under Malcolm Fraser, Dobie beat Thoburn easily with an 8.3% swing. Fraser won another landslide in 1977 and Dobie beat Thoburn easily again, and though Fraser’s majority was reduced in 1980, Dobie again beat Thoburn with ease. In 1983, Bob Hawke’s Labor won a landslide, but Dobie survived a 5% swing against him. In 1984, despite an even bigger Labor landslide, Dobie won back most of the ground he lost the year previous. An even bigger landslide in 1987 still saw Dobie win easily. In 1990, Hawke’s Labor won again easily, but Dobie increased his own share. In 1993, Labor under Paul Keating won again but Dobie survived a swing against him comfortably. Dobie retired for the 1996 election, but Liberal Stephen Mutch won easily as the party won a landslide under John Howard. Mutch was defeated in Liberal preselection for the 1998 election by Bruce Baird, who won the seat easily as Howard won a big majority. In 2001, Howard’s Coalition won again and Baird held on easily. Howard increased his majority again in 2004, and Baird won easily again. Even in Labor’s landslide win over Kevin Rudd in 2007, Liberal Scott Morrison easily won re-election (although there was a nearly 7% swing against him). Morrison had worked for the Liberals but left the party temporarily to become managing director of the national tourism agency. However, he returned and won the seat in 2007. Labor lost their majority in 2010, although Julia Gillard managed to win enough support. Morrison won with a 6.3% swing. In 2013, the Coalition under Tony Abbott won a landslide, with Morrison winning over 60% of the primary vote. Morrison was named Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, and then in 2014 reshuffled as Minister of Social Services. Growing in popularity, when Abbott was defeated by Malcolm Turnbull in a leadership spill, the latter appointed Morrison Treasurer. In 2016, Turnbull narrowly won another majority, and Morrison easily held on to Cook. However, Liberal vultures began to surround Turnbull. In 2018, Turnbull pre-empted a challenge by calling a leadership spill on himself, where he beat right-wing hardliner Peter Dutton. However, this gave impetus to some who initially stood by Turnbull. Thus, another leadership spill was called. Turnbull was considered a moderate, and both Dutton and ‘continuity candidate’ Julie Bishop ran. Thus, Morrison could emerge between the two as a compromise candidate, and won. He became Prime Minister. In 2019, despite naysaying polls, he led the Coalition to another majority. However, his second term was tumultuous, with bushfires giving momentum to left-wing critics of climate change. His response to the COVID-19 pandemic was reviewed mostly positively, but he was criticised for mishandling of sexual misconduct allegations towards Coalition politicians. This led to the Liberals losing ground in suburban seats, and the general idea that they had a ‘woman problem’. The ‘teal independents’ (a combination of green and Liberal blue) rose in popularity, being mostly female candidates in suburban Liberal seats, while the National vote held up in rural areas. This led to Labor under Anthony Albanese winning a majority. Morrison held onto Cook easily, but his power was gone: he resigned as Liberal leader, replaced by Dutton, and scandal broke out that he had secretly sworn himself in to several ministerial positions as PM. He is now retiring from politics, but this by-election will change little. The Liberals have won every election here since 1975, and Labor have announced they are not bothering with a candidate. Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy was considered a shoo-in for this seat, and so he was, easily beating the Green Party’s Martin Moore.
On 15 April, the Canadian provincial constituency of Fogo Island-Cape Freels in Newfoundland and Labrador will have a provincial by-election. Canada has a two-party system, with the Liberal Party and Conservative Party, since federation. The Conservatives renamed themselves the Progressive Conservatives, and have been joined by two third parties: the New Democratic Party (NDP), to the left of the liberals, and the Quebec separatist Bloc Québécois (Quebecer Bloc). In the 1993 federal election, the Progressive Conservative lost votes to the Reform Party of Canada, which then became the Canadian Alliance. After a while, it became clear that having two conservative parties would lead to perpetual Liberal victory, so the two merged into the Conservative Party of Canada. However, the Reform Party was a mostly western phenomenon, and in Newfoundland and Labrador the old Progressive Conservative name survives. In the last provinical election, the incumbent Liberals won a majority. The Progressive Conservatives were in power from 2003 to 2015, but lost that year to the Liberals of Dwight Ball in a landslide. In 2019, Ball’s Liberals were reduced to a minority. Ball resigned in 2020 amidst accusations of cronyism. His replacement was Andrew Furey, who won a majority in 2021. The Progressive Conservatives are still the main opposition, with the NDP and a few independents picking up the remaining handful of seats. PC leader Ches Crosbie resigned, and in 2023 Tony Wakeham was elected leader. However, it was a difficult start as interim leader David Brazil resigned, and the Liberals gained the seat in a by-election. This election was caused by the death of Liberal MHA Derrick Bragg, and is a safe Liberal seat, meaning Liberal candidate Dana Blackmore should easily beat rivals Jim McKenna (PC) and Jim Gill (NDP). The seat was created in 2015, and always won by Bragg with relative ease, although it was a bit closer in 2019. In 2021, Bragg got 61.1%, the PC candidate 36.6%, and Gill 2.3%. The federal Liberals are currently unpopular, and so the provinical Liberals have gone with a new branding which has the name FUREY in big letters and the words “Newfoundland & Labrador Liberals” in small font below.
On 17 April, Croatia will hold parliamentary elections. Croatia had been an independent country and part of another country in various points in its history. A Duchy of Croatia emerged in the seventh century, which became a kingdom in the tenth. After a succession crisis, in 1102 there was a union of the crowns with Hungary. The Hungarian crown itself was united with the Austrian one in 1526. In 1868 it merged with Slavonia, but remained part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Austro-Hungarian Empire fell apart after defeat in World War I and Croatia-Slavonia merged into the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes: Yugoslavia. Elections were held in Yugoslavia, with a multi-party system at this stage which was mostly non-ethnic. A shooting in parliament led to parliament being prorogued by King Alexander I, who formally renamed the country Yugoslavia, hitherto just a nickname. He established a royal one-party dictatorship under the Yugoslav Radical Peasants’ Democracy party. This was known as the 6 January Dictatorship. This was seen not just as an infringement of political rights, but ethnic dominance of a Serb over Croats and Slovenes. Croatian nationalist sentiment began to rise in the form of the Ustaše (uprisers). Alexander was assassinated by Bulgarian revolutionaries with Ustaše support in 1934. As time went on, fascist Germany and Italy were harboring expansionist aims, so Prince Paul (regent for the minor King Peter II) signed the Tripartite pact with Germany, Italy, Japan, Hungary, Romania, puppet Slovakia, and Bulgaria; this made Yugoslavia formally part of the ‘Axis’. By now, Germany was at war with the UK. Mass anti-Axis, pro-British protests ocurred, with a significant part being made up by the Communist Party. A coup removed Prince Paul and restored Peter II’s power. Though British and perhaps Soviet intelligence was involved, much of it came from Yugoslavia and there were more pro-coup and pro-British demonstrations in the streets after it happened. However, the Axis soon invaded and occupied Yugoslavia. Puppet regimes were set up, in Croatia, the Independent State of Croatia. It was in fact a joint Italian-German puppet state until 1943 and Italy’s capitulation, when it became solely a German puppet (at this point, what remained of fascist Italy also became a German puppet). The Ustaše became the puppet government. The largest political legacy of this time was the impetus it provided to the communists. With Soviet backing, communists became the largest faction of the “partisans”, the Yugoslav armed resistance against the fascists. The government-in-exile, Democratic Federal Yugoslavia, was dominated by the communist Josip Broz Tito. When elections happened in 1945, they had their thumb on the scale and the opposition boycotted. Though Yugoslavia became a one-party communist state, it was not a Soviet puppet at any point, as Tito had won power himself rather than been given it through post-war treaties. The Communist Party of Yugoslavia (later the League of Communists of Yugoslavia (SKJ)) became the sole party, abolished the monarchy, and renamed the country the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. In 1948, Tito split from their main ally the Soviet Union, and pro-Soviets were purged. The party became the League of Communists, and the People’s Front the “Socialist Alliance of Working People”. Ethnic tension never went away, and the country remained federal. In 1971, the Croatian Spring saw the Croatian branch take nationalist reforms. Though Tito forced them to resign, the reforms stayed in tact. After Tito’s 1980 death, Yugoslavia remained a one-party state but lost its clear leader: instead of rotating presidency of the different ethnicities emerged. At the same time, communism was falling apart in Europe. In 1990, the Croatian SKJ branch, the League of Communists of Croatia (SKH) declared that the next election (to Croatia’s parliament) would be free and fair. The Croatian and Slovene branches then left the SKJ, and the Croatian one tried to paint itself as the bringer of reform by adding the subtitle “Party of Democratic Changes” (becoming the SKH-SDP). However, the SKH-SDP lost the election to the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). It was led by Franjo Tuđman, a key figure in the Croatian Spring, who became President. The new HDZ government would remove communist national symbols, including renaming the region the Republic of Croatia. In 1991, an independence referendum was held, which passed with 93.2% support. The first elections in the current, independent Croatian state were in 1992. However, the country was not unified, as the Serb minority were against independence. Every part of Yugoslavia apart from Serbia and Montenegro had declared independence, and the Serbs in Croatia wanted to stay with the new Serbian state. They created a Republic of Serbian Krajina, which was unrecognised but functioned in large parts of Croatia for years. In the election, the HDZ won easily, with the nearest opposition on just fourteen seats. A 1995 offensive ended the Republic of Serbian Krajina, reunifying Croatia (a process that formally ended in 1998). Under this wave, Tuđman’s HDZ won another majority, with still no one opposition party doing well. However, he was beginning to rule illiberally: when the opposition won mayoral elections in the capital Zagreb, he refused to confirm their mayor, and appointed an ally as interim mayor. He also suppressed free media and turned state media into propaganda unlike that in Yugoslavia. When Tuđman died in 1999, much of his powers were transferred to the premiership, and the presidency became less powerful. Meanwhile, the SKH-SDP had dropped the SKH part, and then changed the acronym SDP to mean Social Democratic Party, which merged with another party to become the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. They had been one of the opposition forces to Tuđman, but nothing more than that. However, before the 2000 election, they joined with the centre-right Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) and two small regionalist parties, and won close to a majority. The HDZ was finally defeated, and another five-party coalition led by the liberal farmers’ Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) was third. They joined in coalition with the SDP, HSLS and others to form a supermajority that cemented a parliamentary system under SDP Prime Minister Ivica Račan. No single party would win a majority ever again. In 2003, the HDZ won the most seats, with the SDP’s coalition with three other parties in second, and the HSS and HSLS making big losses. The HDZ’s Ivo Sanader managed to become PM. In 2007, a two party system was cemented, as the HDZ stayed in the lead and the SDP made gains. Sanader stayed in power, but retired abruptly in 2009, and was soon jailed for huge corruption (he is still in prison to this day). His deputy Jadranka Kosor became PM, but the HDZ coalition lost the 2011 election to the SDP-led “Kukuriku Coalition” (named after the restaurant where it was formed, can be translated as Cock-a-doodle-doo in English). The SDP’s Zoran Milanović became PM. In 2015, the SDP’s Croatia is Growing coalition lost to the HDZ’s Patriotic Coalition, but neither won a majority. The conservative Bridge of Independent Lists came third. A HDZ-Bridge coalition was formed with independent Tihomir Orešković becoming PM. However, in 2016, the HDZ voted their own government down to try and get a better position. Little changed in the arithmetic between the HDZ coalition and the SDP’s People’s Coalition. HDZ leader Andrej Plenković became PM. In 2020, Plenković’s HDZ coalition defeated the SDP-led Restart Coalition again, although still without a majority, staying over the line thanks to the support of the reserved national minority seats. The right-wing nationalist coalition of Miroslav Škoro Homeland Movement (DPMŠ), named after its leader, came third. However, the SDP did score a win in 2020 when Zoran Milanović defeated HDZ incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović in the presidential election. Plenković leads the HDZ coalition of five parties, while the SDP’s coalition is named Rivers of Justice. Milanović wants to run as an SDP candidate, but could not unless he resigns the presidency. Instead, their main candidate is SDP leader Peđa Grbin. Other coalitions will be led by the Homeland Movement and the Bridge. Also, an SDP split, known simply as the Social Democrats, have been founded and will lead the Our Croatia list, but though this took a lot of MPs, it seems to lack momentum. The HDZ seem to be ahead still, and Plenković will help to build a third term once the vote is done.
On the same day, the Solomon Islands will hold general elections. The Islands became a British protectorate in 1893 following negotiations with Germany, who also had a presence in the area. Self-governance of any form did not come until 1960, when a Legislative Council was introduced, but even then few members were Islanders and none were elected. A new constitution came in 1964, with elections in 1965. Eight of 22 members of the Council would be elected, but only one directly in Honiara, with the rest being chosen indirectly by councillors. By 1967 fourteen of 29 were elected, and thirteen directly, with only the Eastern Outer Islands having the indirect method. In 1970, the Legislative Council was abolished and replaced by a Governing Council. A majority of seats were now elected. In 1973, the remaining indirectly elected seat was abolished. After this election, political parties began to emerge out of MPs, with the United Solomon Islands Party (USIP) and People’s Progressive Party (PPP). A new constitution in 1974 renamed the Governing Council the Legislative Assembly, and the PPP’s Solomon Mamaloni became Chief Minister. The PPP and USIP pretty much died after the 1976 election, where the Independent Group’s Peter Kenilorea became Chief Minister. In 1978, the Solomon Islands became independent, and Kenilorea Prime Minister. The first election as independent country to the renamed National Parliament was in 1980. Kenilorea formed a Solomon Islands United Party (SIUP), with what was left of the PPP merging to form the People’s Alliance Party (PAP). The SIUP beat the PAP, but had no majority thanks to a large amount of independents. However, Kenilorea formed an alliance with independent members and remained PM. However, Mamaloni, now of the PAP, became PM again in 1981. The SIUP won the most seats (one more than the PAP) in the 1984 election and managed an alliance to get Kenilorea back in. However, in 1986 he resigned due to an aid controversy and his deputy, independent Ezekiel Alebua took power. The 1989 election saw a landslide win for the PAP, and the SIUP joining the ranks for the minor parties. Mamaloni became PM again. However, Mamaloni then left the PAP, but remained as PM, dismissing PAP figures and putting opposition figures in their place. In 1993, the PAP lost to Mamaloni’s new SIGNUR (Solomon Islands Government of National Unity, Reconciliation, and Progress Party). However, SIGNUR did not get a majority and the opposition formed a National Coalition around Francis Billy Hilly. Mamaloni managed to win back power in 1994 through parliamentary arithmetic. In 1997, his Solomon Islands National Unity and Reconciliation Party (SINURP) won the most seats but narrowly lost power to a disparate coalition of various opposition parties. The Solomon Islands Liberal Party (SILP) won just four seats, but that party’s Bartholomew Ulufa’alu became PM. In 2000, he was kidnapped by the Malaita Eagle Force (MEF), a militant organisation of Malaitans. Malaitans had often migrated to other parts of the Solomon Islands, and ethnic tension broke out under Ulufa’alu’s government. The MEF accused Ulufa’alu of not doing enough to support Malaitans despite being one himself, and the price for his release was his resignation. He was replaced by Manasseh Sogavare, of the small People’s Progress Party (PPP). In 2001, the PAP finished ahead of the Association of Independent Members (AIM) and Liberal Party-led Solomon Islands Alliance for Change (SIAC). The PAP’s Allan Kemakeza became PM. In 2006, no party won more than four seats, with independents winning a majority. AIM independents elected Snyder Rini PM, but this led to riots in the country’s Chinatown, due to Islanders viewing him as too pro-Chinese. Australian and New Zealander peacekeeping forces were needed to stop the riots, and Rini was soon removed after just two weeks in office. Instead, Sogavare returned, this time representing the Solomon Islands Social Credit Party, who won two seats. However, in 2007, Sogavare was removed by opposition in a parliamentary vote. The SILP’s Derek Sikua then became PM until the next election, in 2010. Independents were still the largest group, but the Solomon Islands Democratic Party at least won twelve seats. The Reform Democratic Party (RDP)’s Danny Philip became PM. After several supporters defected, he resigned in 2011. A National Coalition for Reform and Advancement was formed, under Gordon Darcy Lilo. In 2014, independents were again the only large faction. One of them, Sogavare, became PM again. However, he lost parliamentary support in 2017, and Rick Houenipelwa of the Democratic Alliance Party (DAP) became PM. In the 2019 election, eight parties won seats, but none won more than eight, and 21 of fifty seats were won by independents. Independent Sogavare formed a coalition with other independents and small parties, which he called the Democratic Coalition Government for Advancement (DCGA). This has stayed in power for the whole term, the first premiership to do so since Kemakeza’s in the 2001-2006 term. Sogavare then revived the Ownership, Unity and Responsibility Party (OUR Party) which is contesting the elections. The weak party system means parliamentary arithmetic is crucial. Sogavare severed the Islands’ traditional relations with Taiwan in favour of China, which was very controversial and led to protests which turned violent, mostly by Malaitans. They needed Australian, Fijian, Papua New Guinean and New Zealander forces to help put the riots down. Sogavare survived this, and after the riots, they signed a security deal with China, which was even more controversial. This led to anger from the opposition and traditional diplomatic allies of the Islands such as the United States, Australia, and Japan. However, it did lead to a greater American presence, including a new embassy, perhaps showing a wiliness and ability to play the major powers against each other for favours from both. That said, the opposition wants to repeal the pact. The election was also controversially delayed by a year, with Sogavare’s official reasoning that it was impossible to hold this and the Pacific Games in the same year. Sogavare has now led a campaign of criticising democracy, which leads to “moral decline”, and praising the Chinese system instead.
On 19 April, India holds the first phase of its general election. Today’s India had been split into various kingdoms, and colonial powers also had an interest. A dominant force was the British East India Company. However, an uprising led to the Government of India Act 1858, which gave the UK direct rule over India in the British Raj (British Rule). Elections in the British Raj were held for the first time in 1920. However, a growing political force, the Indian National Congress (INC), was only interested in party politics as a secondary concern, instead leading protest movements for India’s independence. Elections were held delayed by World War II, and held again in 1945. The INC won a majority, but the All-India Muslim League (AIML) won most Muslim seats. This was a clear mandate for independence, but a dual independence: the Muslim countries became Pakistan (today’s Pakistan and Bangladesh), while the rest became India. The leader of the INC, Jawaharlal Nehru, was named Prime Minister of the interim government which led India to independence in 1947, and remained Prime Minister after that. Elections were not held again until 1951, spilling over to 1952. The INC won a landslide majority in this election. The same happened in 1957, and 1962. There were some opposition parties that did well in certain areas, but none had the national presence Congress did. Nehru continued as Prime Minister until his death in 1964. Lal Bahadur Shastri, who served in a number of ministerial roles, became PM, but died himself in 1966. After that, Shastri’s Information Minister (and Nehru’s son) Indira Gandhi became PM. The INC won another majority in 1967. In 1969, Gandhi was expelled from the INC for violating party discipline when she supported a non-INC candidate for President. However, much of the party went with her, forming a new Indian National Congress (R) (INC (R), the R stood for Requisition). The INC (R) won a landslide while the rump Indian National Congress (O) (INC (O), the O standing for Organisation) were routed. Gandhi was criticised for using state machinery to aid her election, and a case against her was heard in 1975: she was convicted and unseated. However, she declared a state of emergency instead, leading to a period known as The Emergency, allowing her to rule by decree and suspend civil liberties. This lasted until the 1977 elections, where the INC (R) lost to the Janata Party (JP, People’s Party) of Morarji Desai, an alliance of multiple parties including the INC (O). However, apart from opposition to Gandhi they had little in common and in 1979 the squabbling led to several politicians splitting. Charan Singh formed the Janata Party (Secular) or JP(S) with the support of Indira Gandhi, whose INC (R) became the INC (I): the I standing for Indira. However, Singh refused to drop Gandhi’s charges, so the INC (I) withdrew support, and elections were held again in 1980. The INC (I) won a big victory, with both the JP and JP(S) getting nowhere. Gandhi became PM again. However, she was assassinated by bodyguards in 1984. The bodyguards where Sikhs, who had long clashed with Gandhi’s governments. Sikhs wanted more autonomy for the state of Punjab, the only state with a Sikh majority. This was rejected, leading to the growth of separatism and militancy. With militants hiding in a holy site, the government launched Operation Blue Star, using heavy weapons to get their man, leading to bloodshed, although the Indian side claimed the militants were using pilgrims as human shields. Whichever side people believed, this incident damaged Sikh relations with the Indian state, and led to the assassination, which only worsened things. Gandhi’s son Rajiv Gandhi became PM. The INC (I) won a massive majority in the election that year amongst anti-Sikh riots throughout the country. However, by 1989 he was battling away scandals that had affected him. One of the main critics came from within his own government in Finance Minister V. P. Singh (Vishwananth Pratap Singh) who resigned, formed his own party, and merged with the JP, JP(S) and other parties to form the Janata Dal (JD, People’s Party). Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party), also emerged. Right-wing Hindu nationalism had existed in India, and though it joined the JP opposition during the Emergency, it found itself unable to assimilate with what was ultimately a secular movement based on old Congress principles. In the 1989 election, the INC was still the largest party, but without a majority, the JD was second and BJP third. Singh became head of a so-called National Front between the JD and regional parties, and became Prime Minister with the support of the BJP and external support from left-wing parties. However, the BJP’s Hindu nationalist agitation led to the Ram Rath Yatra (Rama Chariot Journey), a religious-political rally to the supposed birthplace of the Hindu deity Rama, where a mosque existed. Before the BJP President could get there, he was arrested for “fermenting communal tension”, and police fired at supporters still there. This led to the BJP withdrawing support and the end of the Singh government. Soon, Chandra Shekhar, which had led the JP for a long time before joining the JD, formed the Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya) (SJP(R), Socialist People’s Party (National)) with INC (I) support. In 1991 the INC (I) withdrew support, and elections were held again. The INC (I) made gains, with the BJP the main opposition ahead of the Janata Dal. P. V. Narasimha Rao (Pamulaparthi Venkata Narasimha Rao) became PM, leading an INC (I) minority government with support of other parties. This government was not the most stable, but did complete a full term until 1996. This was a close race where the BJP won the most seats, but the INC (I) the most votes. A number of other parties like the JD won enough to be kingmakers, but no one party could give enough seats to either alone. As the leader of the largest party, the BJP’s Atal Bihari Vajpayee became PM to form a government, but the BJP were still considered too radical and Vajipayee resigned after two weeks. Minor parties formed a coalition called the United Front, with INC support (the original name having been restored after the election), and the JD’s H. D. Deve Gowda (Haradanhalli Doddegowda Deve Gowda) became PM. However, the INC (I) withdrew support in 1997. They agreed to give support back, in exchange for more sway and a new PM, which was External Affairs Minister Inder Kumar Gujral. However, the leaking of a report that criticised some members of the United Front for tacitly supporting Tamil militants in Sri Lanka who assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, the INC withdrew support again, and elections were held once more in 1998. Again, the BJP won the most seats, but the INC the most votes. Both parties gained and smaller parties were squeezed. Vajpayee became Prime Minister, forming a coalition called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, when a small party pulled out, the BJP lost their majority and elections were needed again in 1999. Again, the BJP won the most seats and the INC the most votes. This time, Vajipayee’s NDA coalition lasted until 2004 elections. That election was very close between the INC and BJP. However, the INC coalition (the United Progressive Alliance or UPA) managed to form government with support of left-wing parties under Manmohan Singh. The INC/UPA won a bigger victory in 2009. By now, it was a clear two-party system: the INC-led UPA and BJP-led NDA. However, in 2014 the INC were destroyed and the BJP won a majority on their own. The INC were barely above the small parties in their seat count. Narendra Modi became PM. In 2019, though the INC/UPA recovered a little bit (not much), the BJP won another majority on their own. Modi has been a controversial figure due to the Hindu nationalist agenda being seen as discriminating against Muslims, and the weaponisation and centralisation of the state leading to a decline of democratic norms. However, he is also very popular amongst the Hindu majority, and is seen as raising India’s global clout and stature. This time, the NDA is up against the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance. The acronym, INDIA, may be a response to the Modi government using the name Bharat for the country even in English, which is said to have political overtones. It was basically a combination of the UPA and some left-wing parties. Former Minister Mallikarjun Kharge is the bloc’s leader. The NDA still has a lead in polls, though the INDIA alliance is hoping to be a stronger opposition this time. India is holding its election in phases, with the first phase taking all seats in Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakhshadweep, and Puducherry, and some parts of Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Rajasthan, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir.
On the same day, the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh will hold elections to its Legislative Assembly. The area was known as the North-East Frontier Agency, and is subject to a territorial dispute with China (both the communist government in Beijing and nominally, the republican one on Taiwan), who call it South Tibet. However, it was given the Sanskrit name Arunachal Pradesh (Land of the Dawn-Lit Mountains) and it became a union territory (not yet a state) in 1972. Elections were held for the first time in 1978. This was just after the Emergency had ended and Indira Gandhi had been defeated by the Janata Party. The INC barely bothered, only running a single candidate, with the JP beating its main opponent the People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA). Prem Khandu Thungon of the JP retained his position as Chief Minister. In 1979, he was replaced by the PPA’s Tomo Riba, and in 1980 President’s rule was declared. A new election was needed amidst the chaos, and in 1980, by which time the national JP had declined, a new election was held. The INC (I) and PPA both missed a majority, with independents as kingmakers. After the election, defections gave the INC (I) a solid majority, and Gegong Apang became CM. Apang would dominate politics in the next years. The INC won easily in 1984, and in 1987, the territory became a state. Even during the time of the National Front government, in 1990 the INC under Apang easily beat the Janata Dal, and in 1995 no party apart from Congress had any singificant representation, although there were several independents. Apang rebelled against the national party and formed his own Arunachal Congress (AC) in 1996, taking most local INC members with him. However, a split emerged in the Arunachal Congress with the arrival of the Arunachal Congress (Mithi) or AC(M), which was led by Mukut Mithi. Though Mithi initially supported the Vajipayee (BJP) government, when they didn’t give him a ministerial post, he switched back to the INC and his party was reincorporated into the INC. Mithi had enough members to bring down the Apang government, and the INC won a landslide in the 1999 state election. Apang was still around as the only elected AC member. He managed to take some INC members with him and formed a coalition in 2003 to unseat Mithi called the United Democratic Front, which then merged into the BJP. After the UPA won the 2004 election, Apang moved his members back to the INC, and he won the state election later that year. However, state members of the INC removed him in 2007, replacing him with Dorjee Khandu, the Power Minister. Khandu’s INC won easily in 2009. However, he died in a helicopter crash in 2011. Power Minister Jarbom Gamlin replaced him, but was removed by former Urban Development Minister Nabam Tuki later that year. Even amidst the BJP national landslide in 2014, the INC won easily in the state election on the same day. The BJP did make some gains as opposition. A split in the party led to a political crisis and President’s rule being declared in 2016. This was because Tuki removed Health Minister Khaliko Pul, and he then alleged financial mismanagement for which he was expelled. This crisis was resolved when Pul recruited enough INC members to the hitherto basically dormant PPA, and became Chief Minister. However, in 2016 the constitutionality was questioned and the Supreme Court removed Pul, restoring Tuki. Tuki resigned days later and Pema Khandu, son of Dorjee Khandu, replaced Tuki as INC leader and Chief Minister. This was enough to convince the PPA members to rejoin Congress. However, then every INC MLA apart from Tuki quit the party to join the PPA. However, Khandu was then suspended by the PPA in a plot to change leader. He instead took most PPA MLAs to the BJP, and formed a BJP government. In 2019, Khandu’s BJP won a majority, while the other seats were split. The INC took four and the PPA one, with the Janata Dal (United) or JD (U), a party that is centre-left and mostly popular in the east as the main opposition on seven. The National People’s Party (NPP), which is a centrist party also big in the north-east won five. Two went to independents. However, the INC still won the second-highest vote share. The BJP are expected to win this election very easily. Ten of sixty seats will be elected unopposed as the opposition did not bother with a candidate. The JD (U) are not bothering either, and the main opposition will come from the INC and NPP, but the BJP will doubtless win easily. The BJP won easily in both seats in this state in 2019 general elections as well, even though Tuki was the INC candidate in Arunachal West.
On the same date, the Indian state of Sikkim will hold legislative elections. The kingdom of Sikkim was an independent state. It allied with the UK to protect it from Bhutan and especially Nepal, who had dominated the region, and after the UK’s victory in the Anglo-Nepalese War, the Sugauli Treaty ceded Sikkim to (British) India. It became a British protectorate, but still technically independent, and this situation was similar after Indian independence, with Sikkim a monarchy and Indian protectorate. General elections were held in the country for the first time in 1953. However, there was a split between the indigenous Bhutia and Lepcha communities, who were Buddhist, and the Hindu Nepalis. Seats were given on a sectarian basis: all six Bhutia/Lepcha seats were won by the Sikkim National Party (SNP), who wanted to keep Sikkim independence, while Nepalis voted for the Sikkim State Congress (SSC), who wanted to join India. Elections in 1958 and 1967 added seats but retained the sectarian voter system. The SNP and SSC were joined by the Sikkim National Congress (SNC), which was meant to be a non-sectarian republican and pro-India movement and took much of the SSC’s seats, but also some from the SNP. Elections were held once more in 1970, and 1973 (by which time the SSC had merged to become the Sikkim Janata Congress or SJC (Sikkim People’s Congress)). The victory of the monarchist SNP in 1973 led to riots from those who thought the election was rigged. This led to a three-way agreement between India, the monarchy, and the parties for responsible government. The SNC dominated the 1974 elections and the SNP barely even bothered to campaign. It was clear time was up for the monarchy, and in 1975, Indian troops entered the country and held a referendum to abolish the monarchy, with 97.6% in support. The referendum was held under an atmosphere of intimidation and repression of opposition, but nonetheless it was upheld, and Sikkim became an Indian state in 1975, with the monarchy abolished. The SNC’s Kazi Lhendup Dorjee became Chief Minister, and merged his party into the INC. However, with the split in the INC around the time of the Emergency, the government lost its majority and the state was placed under President’s rule in 1979 for new elections. This was won by the Sikkim Janata Parishad (SJP, Sikkim Popular Association), while the main opposition was the Sikkim Congress (Revolutionary) (SC (R)). The rump INC was very weak and didn’t win a single seat. The SJP’s Nar Bahadur Bhandari became Chief Minister and merged the party back into the INC. However, he left the INC in 1984 to form the Sikkim Sangram Parishad (SSP, Sikkim Popular Struggle). This cost him his job as CM, with B. B. Garung (Bhim Bahadur Garung) becoming CM briefly. However, as the INC no longer had a majority, there was instability and the state was put under President’s rule again until new elections in 1985. Here, the SSP won a landslide, with every seat bar two (one INC, one independent). Bhandari became CM again. In 1989, the SSP won every seat. However, rumblings of discontent led to defections and in 1994, Bhandari was removed by a vote of no confidence. Sanchaman Limboo of the SSP became CM until elections later that year. Bhandari’s own Industries and Information Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling had split from the SSP to form the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) which defeated the SSP in the 1994 race. Chamling became CM. In 1999, the SDF increased their victory over the SSP, and by 2004 the SSP had all but disappeared. The SDF won every seat bar one for the INC. The SDF won every seat in 2009, and in 2014 won again, but were challenged by the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (Sikkim Revolutionary Front, SKM), a left-wing party, who took ten seats. In 2019, the SDF and Chamling were finally removed by the SKM, who won the race seventeen seats to fifteen. Prem Singh Tamang became CM. In the general election, the SKM beat the SDF to the parliamentary seat by 167 thousand votes to 154.5 thousand. The BJP candidate got 16.5 thousand. The SKM and SDF will look to continue their spat here, but they may be swept away by the BJP, who are targeting this state, with national politicians including Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the state. It remains to be seen if the SKM/SDF vote can hold up from this onslaught.
On 21 April, the Maldives will hold parliamentary elections. The elections were delayed from March because of Ramadan. The Buddhist Kingdom of Maldives was converted into an Islamic Sultanate of Maldives in 1153. The Portuguese, who had a colonial interest in nearby Goa (modern-day India) had an outpost, but attempts to convert the islands to Christianity led to their expulsion. The Netherlands, who controlled Ceylon (modern-day Sri Lanka), managed to have influence by the seventeenth century, but they were removed in the Napoleonic Wars by the UK. The Maldives became a British protectorate. Throughout this time, the Maldives retained control of its own affairs, though with the British influence strong. Maldives got independence in 1965. In a 1968 referendum, 81.2% voted for a republic. The first presidential election was in 1968, and parliamentary elections were held in 1969. Long-time Prime Minister Ibrahim Nasir became the first President, as the only candidate. In 1975, he arrested Prime Minister Ahmed Zaki for being too popular, and threatening his rule, and had him exiled to a remote location in a coup. However, by 1978, Nasir’s popularity had fallen due to economic problems, so he did not stand in the election and soon flew to Singapore before authorities found out that he had embezzled money. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, his Minister of Transport, was the only candidate for President. The same was true in 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2003. There were no parties at this time in parliamentary elections. However, agitation for political change led to the legalisation of political parties in 2005. The government forces became the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (Maldivian People’s Party, DRP), while the liberal opposition became the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). 2005 elections saw support for both the government and opposition, with the government favoured slightly. A 2007 referendum saw the presidential system retained with 62.0% support (the post of Prime Minister had long been abolished). In 2008 presidential elections, Gayoom led in the first round with the MDP’s Mohamed Nasheed second. Independent liberal Hassan Saeed came third, with the conservative Jumhooree Party (Republican Party) candidate Qasim Ibrahim in fourth. However, Nasheed won the second round with 54.2% of the vote, ending the thirty-year Gayoom administration. No party won a majority in the 2009 parliamentary election, but the DRP and MDP were still the strongest forces. In 2011, during the Arab Spring, protests occurred in the Maldives with some that endorsed Nasheed saying he failed to cement democracy, and others lamenting the economic situation. Nasheed resigned in 2012 with large pressure from the police and protestors (he claimed it was a coup) and Vice President Mohammed Waheed Hassan became President until 2013 elections. Waheed ran for re-election but came fourth behind Nasheed; Abdulla Yameen of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), which split from the DRP (who endorsed Waheed), and Ibrahim. A re-run was held of the first round due to irregularities but Waheed did not bother run again. Nasheed took the first round, with Yameen ahead of Ibrahim. However, Yameen won the runoff with 51.4% of the vote. The DRP had all but disappeared by the 2014 election, with most seats going to the PPM, MDP, and Jumhooree Party. In 2018, Yameen was defeated by the MDP’s Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, a longtime lawmaker, with 58.4% of the vote. In 2019, the MDP won a landslide in parliamentary elections, with 65 of 87 seats. There were eight candidates in 2023 for president, but the main ones were Solih and Mayor of Malé Mohamed Muizzu, who ran for the People’s National Congress (PNC). This was an ally of the PPM, and Muizzu won 54.0% support. However, after Muizzu took office, the PNC and PPM positions soured. The PNC and PPM are seen to be pro-China, whereas the MDP are pro-West and pro-India. Muizzu used the slogan “India Out” in his 2023 election campaign. This election therefore has a few parties: the PNC, PPM, and MDP among them.
On the same date, Poland will hold the second round of local elections. These will be in mayoral elections and other executive positions where no candidate received a majority. The PO Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski was re-elected in the first round easily, while it’s a friendly fight in Kraków where the PO and Left Together-endorsed independent candidates both beat the PiS nominee to third. In Wrocław, the Left and KO-backed incumbent Jacek Sutryk will go against Poland 2050 MP Izabela Bodnar, and in Łódź the PO incumbent Hanna Zdanowska also won in the first round. In Poznań the PO’s incumbent Jacek Jaśkowiak should easily beat PiS candidate Zbigniew Czerwiński, while in Gdańsk, KO independent Aleksandra Dulkiewicz won without needing a runoff, and the same was true about KO-backed independent Piotr Krzystek in Szczecin. In Bydgoszcz, PO incumbent Rafał Bruski won in the first round, as did his PO counterpart in Lublin Krzysztof Żuk. This shows the current coalition’s strength in urban areas, while the opposition PiS are stronger in rural parts of the country.
On the same date, the Spanish autonomous community of the Basque Country will hold its regional elections. Speaking their own language, the Basque people had levels of autonomy in Spanish (and French) kingdoms in which they inhabited, even before the Franco regime. However, Basque nationalism survived. After Spain’s transition to democracy, the Basque Country was one of the regions with autonomous government. Five parties won seats in the Basque Country in the first post-Franco general election in 1977: the first was the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV), who werewere Basque nationalist, and also Christian and relatively conservative. The Socialist Party of the Basque Country (PSE), the local branch of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), the main centre-left party, were second. The Union of the Democratic Centre (UCD), the main non-socialist party who formed the government were only third in the Basque country, with the right-wing People’s Alliance (AP) and the Basque Country Left (EE), a left-wing Basque nationalist party, won one each. In 1979, the EAJ/PNV beat the PSE and UCD, with the rest going to Herri Batasuna (Popular Unity, HB), a left-wing nationalist party, and the EE. The AP had become the Democratic Coalition, but failed to win a seat this time. The first Basque regional election was held in 1980. The EAJ/PNV were the largest party, while HB beat the PSE. The remaining seats were won by the EE, UCD, and AP, with the last seat went to the Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK), the local branch of the Communist Party of Spain. The Lehendakari or President of the Government was the EAJ/PNV’s Carlos Garaikoetxea. In 1982 elections, the EAJ/PNV and PSE got the most seats, with HB and the Democratic Coalition on two each (the latter including the AP, UCD, and others). The EE won the last seat. The next Basque election was in 1984. The EAJ/PNV were the clear leaders, while the PSE, HB, People’s Coalition and EE winning seats, and the PCE/EPK missing out. HB members absented themselves to allow Garaikoetxea to continue. However, he lost support of his own party and in 1985 was replaced by José Antonio Ardanza. In the 1986 Spanish election, the PSE won the most seats, beating the EAJ/PNV. HB, the People’s Coalition and EE won the rest. Early elections for the regional parliament were needed because of the EAJ/PNV split. The PSE was the largest party ahead of the EAJ/PNV. The HB was tied with the new Eusko Alkartasuna (EA, Basque Solidarity), which was formed by Garaikoetxea and was centre-left and Basque nationalist for third. The remaining seats were won by the EE, the AP coalition with the Liberal Party, and the Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), which was a revival of the UCD which had by now died as a powerful force. Ardanza stayed on with PSE and CDS support. The PSE, EAJ/PNV, HB, EA, People’s Party (PP, formerly the People’s Coalition), and EE all won seats in the 1989 Spanish election in the Basque Country. In the regional election of 1990, the EAJ/PNV regained their position in first ahead of the PSE. HB, EA, the PP, EE and the new Alavese Unity (UA), a regional centre-right party in Álava, also won seats. No party voted against Ardanza. Spain was becoming a PSOE/PP two-party system, while the Basque Country was more split. One party to disappear was EE, who merged with the PSE to form the PSE-EE, which is still the name of the party today. They beat the EAJ/PNV, PP, HB, and a coalition between EA and Euskal Ezerra (EuE, Basque Left), those EE members who rejected the merger. In 1994, the EAJ/PNV won the most seats as the PSE-EE experienced losses. The HB, PP, and EA were joined by the United Left (IU), which the Communist Party was a member of, and UA. Ardanza stayed on with PSE-EE and EA support. In 1996, a general election which ended over a decade of PSOE rule, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, and PP all won seats, with the rest going to HB, the IU, and EA. In 1998, the EAJ/PNV were the largest party ahead of the PP, who made a breakthrough to be the main opposition. HB merged into the Euskal Herritarrok party (Basque Citizens, EH), which was tied for third with the PSE-EE. EA, the IU, and UA won the remaining seats. Ardanza retired and in 1999, Juan José Ibarretxe was elected Lehendakari with EH and EA support. In 2000, the EAJ/PNV and PP won the most seats in the Basque Country for Spanish general elections, with the PSE-EE and EA winning seats. The IU missed out while EH called for a boycott. The EAJ/PNV and EA formed a coalition called PNV-EA in 2001, which won the most seats ahead of the PP, PSE-EE, EH and IU. Ibarretxe stayed on as no party opposed him. In 2004 Spanish ealections, the EAJ/PNV and PSE-EE won the most seats, ahead of the PP and EA. The EH was banned in 2003 due to sympathising with Basque separatist terrorists. The PNV-EA won the most seats, ahead of the PSE-EE and PP. Replacing the EH was the Communist Party of the Basque Homelands (EHAK), while the remaining seats went to the United Left-Greens (EB-B) and Aralar, which split from the EH to outwardly reject terrorism (Aralar is a mountain range in the Basque Country). Ibarratetxe held on by one vote thanks to two EHAK MPs voting for him. Spanish elections were next held in 2008, with seats won by the PSE-EE, EAJ/PNV, and PP in the Basque Country. By 2009, EHAK was banned. Though the EAJ/PNV won the most seats, the PSE-EE made gains. The remaining seats were won by the PP, Aralar, EA (who ran alone), EB-B, and a new centrist, anti-nationalist liberal Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD). With PP and UPyD support, the PSE-EE led a pro-Spanish government under Patxi López, despite being rivals nationally, ending years of nationalist dominance. National elections were held in 2011, with EA and Aralar having merged with others into a new party called Amaiur (a Basque fortress from medieval times), who won the most seats in the Basque Country. The EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, and PP won the remainder. The PP withdrew support for López’s administration in 2012, leading to early elections. The EAJ/PNV was the main party, while Amaiur was replaced by a new coalition called EH Bildu (EH stands for Basque Country, Bildu is Gather). The PSE-EE and PP both lost ground, while the UPyD won the last seat. The EB-B had split from the national IU and the two ran against each other, neither winning seats. In the end, the pro-Spain parties abstained to allow the EAJ/PNV’s Iñigo Urkullu to become Lehandakari ahead of an EH Bildu candidate. The Spanish political landscape was changed in 2015, when the left-wing party Podemos (We Can) and the liberal Citizens (Cs) made gains. The EAJ/PNV won the most seats in the Basque Country, but Podemos won the most votes. The PSE-EE, EH Bildu, and PP also won seats. With no government formed, a new election was held. Podemos formed a coalition, Unidos Podemos (Together We Can) with the IU and the small green party Equo, which was the largest in the Basque Country. The EAJ/PNV fell to second, with the rest going to the PSE-EE, EH Bildu, and PP. With no majority, the PSOE had to abstain to allow Mariano Rajoy of the PP to stay as Prime Minister. In 2016 regional elections, the EAJ/PNV remained first, with EH Bildu joined by Unidas Podemos in third. The PSE-EE and PP also won seats. This time the PSE-EE endorsed Urkullu, with Unidas Podemos and PP abstaining to bring him over the line. In 2018, Rajoy was removed by the PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who became Prime Minister. He got support from Unidas Podemos and Catalan, Valencian, and Canarian regionalist parties, as well as the EAJ/PNV and EH Bildu. Catalan parties ended the government leading to April 2019 elections. This saw the PSOE become the largest party, the PP lose half their seats, and the far-right Vox (Voice) join as the fifth party. In the Basque Country, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, Unidas Podemos (only changing the name to be feminine but otherwise the same), and EH Bildu won seats, with the PP missing out. No government was formed and new elections were needed in November. The PP and Vox made gains, the latter coming third, but the PSOE still won. The Cs fell to irrelevance. In the Basque Country, the EAJ/PNV, PSE-EE, EH Bildu, Unidas Podemos and PP won seats. This time, Sánchez survived by two votes, with Unidas Podemos, the EAJ/PNV, and Valencian, Canarian, Galician and Turolense regionalists, as well as a small left-wing party voting for him, and Catalan nationalists plus EH Bildu abstaining. The last Basque election was held in 2020. The EAJ/PNV were the largest party, with the other seats going to EH Bildu, the PSE-EE, Unidas Podemos, a joint PP and Cs list called PP+Cs, and Vox. The PSE-EE supported Urkullu again. After poor local election results in 2023, Sánchez called an early election. PP became the largest party, while Unidas Podemos became Sumar (Unite). The PSE-EE, EAJ/PNV, EH Bildu, PP and Sumar won seats in the Basque Country. Sánchez formed a majority with Sumar, EH Bildu, the EAJ/PNV, and regionalists in Catalonia, Galicia, and the Canary Islands. This government has stayed together for now. However, there have been some changes in the Basque landscape. The EAJ/PNV have decided not to choose Urkullu as their candidate this time, but Imanol Pradales, who is relatively young (48), seen as an attempt to win votes back off EH Bildu. Meanwhile, Sumar and the United Left have split from Podemos, who must run separately, and with both winning similar numbers it is likely neither will win much. EH Bildu’s lead candidate is Pello Otxandiano, and the party is not far behind the EAJ/PNV in polls. The PP+Cs alliance ended and the Cs lie basically dormant. The PNV/EAJ, EH Bildu, PSE-EE, and PP are guaranteed seats, but with Sumar, Podemos and Vox it could go one way or the other. It is probable, but not guaranteed, that the PNV/EAJ-PSE-EE coalition will have a majority if they wish to continue it.
On the same date, the Democratic Republic of the Congo will hold Senate elections. The Congo Free State was acquired by King Leopold of Belgium, not as a Belgian colony but a personal colony of Leopold. Leopold’s rule was extremely harsh and the level of atrocities led to the Belgian parliament annexing it as a Belgian possession in 1908. Belgian rule did not end until 1960, and no elections were held until those a few weeks before independence. The winning party was the Congolese National Movement (MNC), which had split and the dominant faction was the MNC-Lumumba (MNC-L), named after its leader Patrice Lumumba. Lumumba became the Republic of Congo’s first Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the ABAKO party (Alliance of Bakongo, Bakongo being an ethnic group) were granted the presidency in an act of political unity, with Joseph Kasa-Vubu becoming President. Lumumba was considered a leftist and Kasa-Vubu a conservative, providing ethnic and political balance. With a parliamentary system, the presidency was considered mostly ceremonial. However, the new government was unable to deal with challenges including the rise of secessionist movements. Lumumba reacted by taking an authoritarian stance, ignoring his cabinet, and Kasa-Vubu then dismissed him, concerned at this. The next two Prime Ministers lasted only a couple of weeks, and the next two after that lasted a few months. With American support, Cyrille Adoula became PM, but tried to balance his cabinet with Lumumbaists too. In 1964, a constitutional referendum made the country the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Adoula lasted until 1964, when Kasa-Vubu pressured him to resign for failing to contain leftist rebellions. His replacement Moïse Tshombe was selected as someone who would placate the West. His Convention National Congolaise (CONACO, Congolese National Convention) won the 1965 election. However, Tshombe was then removed by Kasa-Vubu. The pro-Tshombe parliament refused to confirm any other Prime Minister, so the head of the armed forces Mobutu Sese Seko led a coup with the government paralysed. Mobutu obtained near-autocratic power almost instantly, with a one-party state under the Popular Movement of the Revolution (MPR). It was African nationalist and anti-communist. Mobutu became President, and in 1970 was re-elected with a turnout of 100.3%. As part of his African nationalist agenda, he renamed the country Zaire in 1971. Political opponents were publicly executed. Mobutu was re-elected in 1977 and 1984. Just after the Cold War ended, economic problems led to student protests. These were massacred by the government, leading to an end to EEC, American and Canadian aid. Mobutu responded by allowing opposition figures into a coalition government. At the same time, a Genocide of Tutsis was happening in neighbouring Rwanda. Mobuto supported the Hutus, who were responsible, and ordered Tutsis to leave. Meanwhile, pro-Tutsi groups that would soon take over Rwanda supported Tutsis in Zaire who soon took over part of the country. After the new Rwandan government took over, Hutus would seek refuge in Zaire as they planned rebellion. Thus, Rwanda invaded Zaire, and soon Uganda, Burundi, Eritrea and South Sudanese rebels would join in, alongside Zairean rebels. Mobutu, who was growing frail, saw his forces and the Rwandan rebels overrun. A new government was formed under Laurent-Désiré Kabila, who renamed the country back to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Kabila wanted the foreign forces to leave, but they refused. However, the Congolese Tutsis were alarmed by the Rwandan forces leaving, and rebelled. They were backed by Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi. This conflict involved African countries on either side, with Angola, Chad, Libya, Namibia and Zimbabwe supporting Kabila. Peace talks led to a transitional government and elections in 2006, but even so, militias and fighting still exists. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila, an independent and son of Laurent-Désiré Kabila, was re-elected in a second round against Jean-Pierre Bemba, who led the Rwandan-backed rebel group the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) which became a party after the peace talks. However, key opposition figure Étienne Tshisekedi from the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) refused to enter because he was the elections as rigged. In 2011, Tshisekedi did enter, but was defeated by Kabila in an election beset by irregularities. Kabila attempted to delay the next elections, but they eventually took place in 2018, without Kabila as a candidate. Opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi, son of the late Étienne Tshisekedi, defeated Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadry, the latter being considered the pro-government candidate. In 2023, Tshisekedi was easilly re-elected and the UDPS won the most seats in parliament, although the opposition claimed fraud. This shows that the DRC’s situation is still very volatile. These Senate elections are indirect, chosen by provincial assemblies. In 2019, they were dominated by Kabila’s Common Front for Congo, but this time the results will probably be different.
On the same day, the Kosovan region of North Kosovo will hold referenda to remove their mayors. North Kosovo is not an official region, but is understood to be made up of the muncipalities North Mitrovica, Lepsoavić, Zvečan, and Zubin Potok. Kosovo had been influenced by Roman, Bulgarian and Byzantine Empires before being taken by the Serbian Kingdom. There were good relations between the Serbian rulers and Albanian-speaking locals at this time. However, it was then conquered by the Ottoman Empire, and the Albanian chiefs decided to accept them, leading to the successful Islamisation of the area. Serbia wanted it back, but Albanian nationalism grew in the nineteenth century. As conflict broke out between Serbia and the Ottomans, Serbia expelled Albanians living in Serbia, who mostly supported the Ottomans and fled to Ottoman Kosovo, creating ethnic tension that still hasn’t broke down. Albanian nationalism was lukewarm on the Ottoman Empire itself, wanting autonomy. This led to a revolt from Albanian nationalists in 1912, wanting autonomy. With the Ottoman soldiers also Albanians and not wanting to fight their own, they accepted this. However, the revelation of Ottoman weakness led to other Balkan powers (Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece) declaring war, and winning. In the 1913 Treaty of London Kosovo was given to Serbia and Montenegro. After World War I, both these countries became part of Yugoslavia. At this time, discrimination against Albanians was rife, conversion to Orthodox Christianity was attempted, and Serbs colonised the area. During World War II, Italy occupied Albania, and the puppet state’s claim to Kosovo was supported, leading to a brief reversal of the Serbification. Like Croatia, Kosovo was a part of Communist Yugoslavia after the war; unlike Serbia it was not its own republic, but an autonomous part of Serbia. As Tito broke from Stalin, and Albanian leader Enver Hoxha continued to pursue a Stalinist line, Albanians were distrusted by the regime and Serbs were preferred. However, Kosovan agitations for more autonomy were heard, and the situation began to favour Albanians in the autonomous region, now upgraded to an autonomous province in 1963. Albanians wanted more, and in 1981 protested to become a full republic, which led to the regime cracking down on them again. Ethnic tensions began to grow, and in 1989 Serbia further decreased Kosovan autonomy. Kosovo responded by voting to create a Republic of Kosova as a part of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia did not recognise this. In 1991, they declared Kosova independent from Yugoslavia, but again this was not recognised. However, they created their own government structures. Things turned violent with the formation of paramilitaries which attacked Yugoslavian state officials, leading to the Kosovo War. After a ceasefire broke, NATO drafted an agreement to restore Yugoslavia’s autonomy and allow NATO peacekeeping forces. When Yugoslavia rejected this, and atrocities committed to Albanians put further attention on the conflict, NATO bombed Yugoslavia to pressure them to withdraw. In 1999, Yugoslavia withdrew and although still claiming Kosovo, allowed a UN transitional authority to take charge. Elections were held in 2001, 2004 and 2007 under this agreement. In 2008, the parliament voted to declare independence. It was immediately recognised by the US, UK, France, and others, while Russia, China, and Serbia (Yugoslavia renamed itself Serbia and Montenegro, and then just Serbia after Montenegrin independence in 2006) did not. However, NATO forces make a change to the status quo unlikely. Though most of the country is populated by Albanians, North Kosovo is mostly Serb. Serbia and the Serbs in North Kosovo wanted some form of autonomy for them under any independent or autonomous Kosovan state, which the Kosovans and West opposed. Though Kosovo agreed with Serbia in the 2013 Brussels Agreement for a Community of Serb Municipalities, in 2015 they froze the agreement after countries refused to vote for it to join UNESCO, a United Nations body. In 2017, no party won a majority in parliament. Thus, it relied on minority ethnic MPs, including Serbs. This led to more Serb participation in government and a period of slightly better relations. However, the government ended when the Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj was called to the Netherlands to face trial for war crimes in the Kosovo War. A new election took place in 2019, but again no stable government was formed. The latest election was in 2021, when the left-wing Vetëvendosje (Self-determination) party, which is Albanian nationalist and populist, won close to a majority. Albin Kurti became Prime Minister. Current opinion polls show Vetëvendosje still miles in front with the opposition not making ground. Under Kurti, relations between the Kosovan state and Serbs living there have been difficult. He banned neutral “Kosovo” license plates on cars from being used, mandating “Republic of Kosovo” ones. As Serbia does not recognise the Republic of Kosovo plate, and Kosovo does not recognise the Serbian one, the neutal Kosovo plate was necessary for those travelling between the border. This led to protests which at times turned fiery. A solution of covering the plate with a sticker was eventually found. However, this was only temporary and Kurti announced that the ban would be re-introduced in 2022. He postponed it under international pressure after protests. An agreement was proposed between Serbia and Kosovo to end the issue, but Kosovo did not accept this and the ban resumed in November 2022. This led to Serbs who worked for the Kosovan state including elected officials, judges, and police withdrawing. Local elections were held in the four North Kosovan muncipalities in 2023, boycotted by Serbs. Therefore, Albanians were elected on tiny turnouts. In 2023, a normalisation agreement was signed between Kosovo and Serbia. They agreed to normalise relations, and stop Serbia blocking Kosovo from joining international organisations. In return, Kosovo had to allow the Serbian minority some autonomy and protect the Serbian Orthodox Church. The Serbian President verbally agreed but under pressure refused to sign it, stating that his “arm hurt” and would continue to do so for four years, but agreed to implement it as long as Kosovo did not join the UN and Serbia did not have to recognise Kosovo. Tension continued however, with the latest twist coming in February 2024 when Kosovo banned the use of the Serbian dinar in any part of its territory, mandating that only the Euro be used. Serbs have been able to raise a petition to remove the four incumbent mayors in North Kosovo, and Kosovo authorities accepted the legality of such a move. They should pass easily.
On the same date, Ecuador will hold a constitutional referendum. Ecuador was a Spanish possession that won independence in the Battle of Pichincha of 1822, joining the Republic of Gran Colombia but separating in 1830. The first direct presidential election was in 1865. Ecuador was dominated by conservative landowners and clergy, until the Liberal Revolution of 1895. After this coup came secularism and the decline of church power. However, the Liberals also ran power as a cartel of sorts, and a military coup in 1925 removed them. The officers wanted a pluralist state, so they weakened the presidency and allowed for a stronger and diverse parliament. This did lead to instability, but it survived until a 1963 coup, which was caused when the incumbent President supported the Cuban Revolution leading to criticism from the US and within right-wing circles in Ecuador. However, economic problems led to protests and the end of the ambitious junta in 1966. Another coup ocurred in 1972 before presidential elections could take place. However, a counter-coup in 1976 was caused by a new junta who wanted to restore democracy. Democratic presidential elections were held in 1978 and 1979, with Jaime Roldós Aguilera winning. Though his death in 1981 caused him not to complete his term, the winners in 1984, 1988, and 1992 all completed their terms normally, showing Ecuador as a country where the constitutional system was functioning. All came from different parties, and the party system was generally pretty weak, like many countries in South America. The winner in 1996, Abdalá Bucaram was impeached for corruption, and though there was a dispute over who should succeed him, this passed as well and early elections were held in 1998, won by Jamil Mahuad. An attempted coup ocurred in 2000 by indigenous groups alongside some military officers. The lack of support for a junta or Mahuad amongst the public led to a compromise where Vice President Gustavo Noboa became President. The coup leader Lucio Gutiérrez was elected in his own right in 2002. However, he failed to be the leftist that many of his voters hoped he would, and this led to mass protests and a vote in parliament to remove him in 2005. In 2006, the left-winger Rafael Correa, of the PAIS Alliance (Proud and Sovereign Homeland) won the election. He called Constituent Assembly elections, which were won by PAIS, and then passed a new constitution that let him run again for two more terms. In 2009, he was re-elected, with Gutiérrez second, and in 2013, he won again. In 2017, he was term-limited. Vice President Lenín Moreno ran for PAIS, and the left-wing parties coalesced around the United Front. Meanwhile, the Creating Opportunities party (CREO, meaning I Believe in Spanish), led the Alliance for Change, with neoliberal candidate Guillermo Lasso. Moreno put a referendum to re-introduce term limits in a break from Correa. Moreno was considered more moderate and though he initially was popular, his reversal of Correa’s populism led to a decline in support. By 2021, the PAIS Alliance was basically dead. CREO’s Lasso this time beat left-winger Andrés Arauz, of the left-wing Union for Hope. Protests against Lasso as prices raised led to a sharp crackdown, and this in turn led to impeachment proceedings. Rather than face them, he called an early election. Daniel Noboa of the centrist National Democratic Action (ADN) narrowly beat Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement (RC). Though Correa was a spender, his successors Moreno and Lasso were more austere figures. Among those services to be cut were security services, and this along with a higher poverty rate has made it easier for gangs to recruit. With cocaine being trafficked from neighbouring Colombia and Peru, Ecuador has always been a hotspot for drug gang activity, and since a crackdown by Colombian authorities, this has only increased in Ecuador. Gang leaders escaped from prison in January, leading to a state of emergency being declared by Noboa with broad powers that infringe on basic rights. This led to a declaration of war from the gangs. There have been mass arrests while the gangs still carry out some attacks on government officials, citizens, and infrastructure. A broad constitutional reform has now been proposed by Noboa, in order to give the state more powers to deal with such challenges.
On 21 and 22 April, the Italian region of Basilicata will hold elections to its Regional Council. Regional elections were first held in Basilicata in 1970, and were dominated by the Christian Democracy (DC) until 1990. After the fall of that party following a number of corruption scandals, the media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi filled the gap on the right with his Forza Italia (Forward Italy, FI) party. The Communist Party, which had been the main opposition, also reformed itself as the Democratic Party of the Left (PDS), a social democratic party. Though Berlusconi’s coalition won the 1994 general election, in Basilicata, the PDS-led coalition, known as the centre-left coalition, and also including the Italian People’s Party (PPI) (the formal successor of the DC without most of its right wing) won the election with a PPI President, Raffaele Dinardo. By 2000, the PDS had merged into the Democrats of the Left (DS), and their coalition, The Olive Tree, defeated Forza Italia’s Pole for Freedoms. Filippo Bubbico became President. In 2005, the DS had joined an alliance called The Olive Tree, with the alliance being The Union. They won a landslide over Forza Italia’s House of Freedoms, with Vito De Filippo becoming President. De Filippo won again in 2010. By now the DS had merged to become the Democratic Party (PD), who led the centre-left, while Forza Italia had merged to become The People of Freedom (PdL), leading the centre-right. De Filippo resigned in 2013 due to corruption allegations surrounding members of his cabinet, and a new elections was held in 2013. The centre-left won easily again under the PD’s Marcello Pitella, defeating the centre-right led by the PdL. However, in 2019 the centre-right notched up a victory, with the Lega (League) as the main party. Lega Nord (Northern League) was a party that was an ally of Berlusconi’s in 1994, believing in a right-wing nationalism for the independence of the north of Italy, or as they put it, Padania. However, under Matteo Salvini, they focussed more on right-wing populism that was sweeping through Europe around the time of the European migrant crisis, and also ran in the south. After the failure of a constitutional referendum, PD Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned, Paolo Gentiloni completed the centre-left administration’s term. In 2018, Forza Italia and the Lega Nord won the most seats. The populist Five Star Movement (M5S), which was Eurosceptic but could be seen to have a left-wing streak as well, was the largest sole party, while the centre-left were hammered. In the end, the Lega formed government with the M5S, with both party leaders as Deputy Prime Minister and independent Giuseppe Conte as PM. However, the electoral coalitions stuck. Forza Italia’s Vito Bardi became President, with the centre-left and M5S in opposition. Seeing his party ahead and wanting power, in 2019 Salvini withdrew confidence in Conte. However, the PD then stepped in to form a government with the M5S, stopping the League from winning an early election. The new PD leadership was more left-wing, and Renzi quit to form his own party, Italia Viva (IV, Italy Alive). Though it was initially part of the coalition, it withdrew confidence in 2021. A coalition of nearly every party was formed under independent Mario Draghi to finish the term. However, one party, the Brothers of Italy (FdI), a right-wing party that was part of the centre-right coalition stayed out. The FdI was much smaller than the League and FI in 2018, having been a post-fascist party. The FdI started to gain in polls, and in 2022, the centre-right won a majority, with FdI the largest party. Giorgia Meloni became PM in coalition with the League and FI. Meanwhile, the centre-left and M5S lost ground. By now, Conte had joined the M5S, and the party became more moderate and less populist, as a generally progressive party not dissimilar to the PD. The centre-right coalition contains the League, FI, FdI, and four smaller lists, including in this region Italia Viva. Bardi is running for re-election against Piero Marrese of the centre-left, not just backed by PD and its allies, but also the M5S. Bardi has a narrow, but significant, lead in polls.
On 24 April, North Macedonia will hold presidential elections. Macedonians were considered Bulgarians, with a very similar language, and the same religion (under Ottoman rule, this designation was linked to Orthodox Christianity, while others in the area were Muslim). As Bulgarian nationalism rose, Greeks and later Serbs thought it useful to emphasise the similarities they had with people in the area. Thus, they promoted a Macedonian identity, related to the Macedonia that existed in ancient Greece. This was picked upon by Slavic intellectuals, who declared themselves Macedonian. However, it was considered a regional identity of Bulgarians, not yet a national one, and was suppressed after Serbia took the area in the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913, viewing any forms of Bulgarian identity a threat to Serbian rule of the region. Though Bulgaria took Macedonia back in World War I, they were part of the losing Central Powers and lost the region at the end of it. Serbia, including Macedonia, would become part of Yugoslavia. Yugoslava was occupied by the Axis from 1941, Macedonia went to Bulgaria. Though many Macedonians saw themselves as Bulgarians, the Bulgarians acted as an occupying force and ruled harshly, leading Macedonians to join the Yugoslav resistenance of Tito. Macedonia was, like Croatia, one of the republics of post-war Socialist Yugoslavia. After this, Macedonia as a nation was unquestionable, as there was a purge of anyone that still felt they were Bulgarian: especially after the Tito-Stalin split (as Bulgaria was a puppet state of the Soviet Union). Yugoslavia promoted Macedonian identity, and today there is no real doubt that they are a distinct people. One-party rule continued until 1990 under the League of Communists of Macedonia (SKM) as part of Tito’s dictatorship, when democratic elections were held. The top party was the VMRO-DPMNE (Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity). They were a conservative and nationalist party (the name is a reference to a revolutionary organisation from the turn of the twentieth century). The second largest party was the League of SKM, who had dropped everything red but the name and added the subtitle Party for Democratic Reform (SKM-PDP). Meanwhile, the third-placed party was named the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PPD), and aimed at Macedonia’s sizable Albanian minority. Nikola Klusjev became the Prime Minister, and in 1991 led an independence referendum with 96.5% in favour. Macedonia avoided the war that other Balkan countries had after the fall of Yugoslavia and won independence peacefully. The SKM became the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), abandoning communism and becoming a standard centre-left European party, and its leader Branko Crvenkovski became PM in 1992. Elections were held again alongside the first round of presidential elections in 1994. The SDSM formed a coalition called the Alliance for Macedonia, and its candidate Kiro Gligorov easily beat the VMRO-DPMNE’s Ljubiša Georgievski. Gligorov was the incumbent, having being chosen by parliament as the first President of independent Macedonia. Georgievski alleged fraud and the VMRO-DPMNE boycotted the second round of parliamentary elections, giving the Alliance for Macedonia and easy majority allowing Crvenkovski to stay on for another term. Parliamentary elections were held again in 1998, and a coalition led by the VMRO-DPMNE defeated the SDSM easily. Ljubčo Georgievski became PM. In 1999, the VMRO-DPMNE’s Boris Trajkovski defeated the SDSM’s Tito Petkosvki and became President. In 2002, the SDSM-led coalition, Together for Macedonia, defeated the VMRO-DPMNE-led one, allowing Crvenkovski to become PM again. In this election, the PPD declined and were replaced as the main Albanian party (and third-placed party) by the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI). In 2004, Crvenkovski defeated the VMRO-DPMNE’s Saško Kedev to become President, following a plane crash which killed Trajkovski. However, the early 21st century was a difficult time for Macedonia. When the Kosovo War began, Kosovan refugees began affiliating themselves to the insurgents. In 2001, Albanians had formed their own groups in Macedonia and started attacking the Macedonian government, claiming discrimination. The Ohrid Agreement was signed to end the conflict, giving Albanian national language status and Albanian autonomy. The militants formed the DUI as a democratic political party, while the other party representing that minority is the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA). In 2004, a referendum to overturn the referendum failed due to low turnout, having being promoted by the VMRO-DPMNE. Disputes between (ethnic) Macedonians and Albanians ended the premiership of Hari Kostov just months after he replaced Crvenkovski. Vladko Bučkovski finished the term. In 2006, the VMRO-DPMNE-led For a Better Macedonia defeated Together for Macedonia. Nikola Gruevski became Prime Minister. Gruevski shed VMRO-DPMNE’s pro-Bulgarian style of nationalism, instead promoting antiquisation, which promoted Macedonians of the past, even before Macedonia was considered a separate nationality. In the capital Skopje, it is common to see statues of great Macedonians in his project, Skopje 2014. However, Greece also claims ancient Macedonian heritage, and disputed the Republic of Macedonia’s claim to the name (this is why those of you old enough to remember may have heard the term ‘FYR Macedonia’ or Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). A coalition between the VMRO-DPMNE and the DPA was formed, later also including the PPD. After Greece vetoed a bid to join NATO, the government called early elections in 2008. For a Better Macedonia won a majority in a landslide win over the SDSM’s Sun – Coalition for Europe, who barely finished ahead of the DUI and DPA. The PDP merged with the DPA after this election. In 2009, things got better for VMRO-DPMNE, as Gjorge Ivanov defeated the SDSM’s Ljubomir Frčkovski for the Presidency. When the government led raids on companies for tax evasion, including independent media, there were large protests from the opposition that forced early elections in 2011. The VMRO-DPMNE coalition still defeated the SDSM one, although the SDSM and its allies made gains that deprived the VMRO-DPMNE of its majority. The next elections were for both president and parliament in 2014. Ivanov easily defeated the SDSM’s Stevo Pendarovski for President. For parliament, the VMRO-DPMNE coalition was one short of a majority. In 2015, Gruevski charged Zoran Zaev, a leader of the SDSM, for planning a coup with the British ambassador. The SDSM had constantly accused the VMRO-DPMNE of rigging elections and this was no different in 2014. Zaev responded by accusing Gruevski of mass wiretapping of Macedonian civilians, and covering up a murder by a police officer, which led to large protests breaking out. The EU mediated a deal between the VMRO-DPMNE and SDSM known as the Pržino Agreement. Gruevski would resign, while the SDSM would return and have some role in a coalition government. Emil Dmitriev was Prime Minister in this time. Elections were held in 2016. Though For a Better Macedonia (the name being revived for this election) did win more seats than the SDSM’s For Life in Macedonia coalition, the SDSM was able to form an agreement with the DUI and Zaev became PM. The SDSM got another win in 2019, when Stevo Pendarovski defeated the VMRO-DPMNE’s Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, with Ivanov term limited. Pendarovski had been in multiple roles (Trajkovski’s national security advisor from 2001 to 2004, head of the State Election Commission from 2004 to 2005, Crnevkovski’s national security and then foreign policy advisor from 2005 to 2009), and was the losing SDSM candidate in 2014. This election was also notable as it was the first after the SDSM government signed the Prespa Agreement with Greece. This would rename the country North Macedonia, ending the dispute. The VMRO-DPMNE bitterly opposed this (and still does), and a referendum in 2018 was boycotted and invalidated due to low turnout. However, the government went ahead with it anyway, and Pendarovski’s re-election seemed to be a sort of mandate for this. After France blocked North Macedonia’s negotiations to join the EU, the SDSM called early elections in 2020 and Zaev resigned, with Oliver Spasovski becoming caretaker PM. However, the SDSM coalition, We Can! More and Better still came ahead of the VMRO-DPMNE’s Renewal for Macedonia. The remaining seats were won by the DUI, a coalition between the Alliance for Albanians (ASH) and Alternativa (Alternative) minority parties, the left-wing populist and nationalist The Left, and the DPA. We Can!, the BDI and DPA formed a coalition. In 2022, Zaev resigned after poor local election results. Dimitar Kovačevski replaced him, serving until 2024, when he resigned under the coalition agreement, which said an Albanian Prime Minister would rule for 100 days, this being the BDI’s Talat Xhaferi. General elections are in 2024, with the first round of the presidential election in April, and the second round as well as parliamentary elections in May. Again, Pendarovski’s opponent is the VMRO-DPMNE’s Siljanovska-Davkova. An academic, who had served in some political roles and considered an expert in constitutional law, in 2019 she promised to restore the old name of the country if elected, but lost to Pendarovski. Polls suggest her chances are much better this time, and Pendarovski is in danger. The President is nonetheless a rather toothless figure in North Macedonian politics. The simulatenous parliamentary election is more important, with the VMRO-DPMNE’s Your Macedonia way in front of the SDSM’s For a European Future coalition.
On 26 April, India will hold the second phase of its general election. This phase will be for Kerala, and parts of Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashta, Manipur, Rajasthan, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP is the main or only NDA force in most of these areas, with them being joined by mainly local parties in the bloc. On the INDIA side, the INC is the largest party, but in certain states they are standing aside for parties with more local popularity, such as Bihar, where the Rashtriya Janata Dal (National People’s Party, RJD) has more sway, or Uttar Pradesh, where more candidates belong to the Samajwadi Party (Socialist Party). Other parties may be popular where there is a different local system, such as in Sikkim.
On 29 April, Togo will hold parliamentary elections. Togo became a German protectorate known as Togoland in 1884, but was invaded in World War I. Togoland became a League of Nations mandate after the war, split between British Togoland and French Togoland. British Togoland became part of Ghana in 1957. In 1946, by which time the League Mandates had become UN Trust Territories, French Togoland held its first election. The Committee of Togolese Unity (CUT) won a majority of seats for non-French citizens (native Togolese), and it demanded independence. However, they lost ground to the more pro-French Togolese Party of Progress (PTP) and their allies, the Union of Chiefs and Peoples of the North (UCPN) in 1951. The PTP also won the seat in the French parliament off of the CUT. Togolese elections were held again in 1952, with the UCPN and PTP winning a majority together, but the CUT rebounding somewhat. The CUT boycotted the 1955 elections, with the seats split evenly between the UCPN and PTP. A 1956 referendum to become an autonomous republic within the French Union passed with 93.4% support, but the UN rejected this as independence was not an option and thus the trusteeship formally continued. However, Togoland did get more autonomy. A UN mission arrived in 1957, allowing Togolese nationalists to protest angrily. The French responded by firing on the crowd, known as the Pya-Hodo Massacre. UN-sponsored elections were held in 1958 in response to the incident, and the CUT defeated the UCPN and PTP to a majority in 1958. The CUT’s Sylvanus Olympio became Prime Minister. France agreed to full independence, taking effect in 1960. A constitutional referendum in 1961 was passed with 99.6% support, creating a presidential republic and weak parliament. On the same day, presidential elections were held, won by Olympio. The CUT had become the Party for Togolese Unity (PUT) and won every seat, there were no opposition candidates. The post of Prime Minister was abolished. Olympio ruled as an autocrat and dissolved opposition parties. Olympio had no time for the military, believing them to be unnecessary in his plan to develop the country. This led to resentment, and in 1963 they assassinated him in a coup. The Insurrection Committee then installed the exiled opposition leader Nicolas Grunitzky, from the Togloese People’s Movement (MPT), which had split from the PTP in colonial times. A constitutional referendum was again passed with 98.5% support, and an all-party list was approved with 98.6% support; Grunitzky was the only candidate for president. The coup leader Gnassingbé Eyadéma fell out with Grunitzky, and committed another coup in 1967. This time, the National Reconciliation Committee junta would appoint Eyadéma President, and the constitutional process was suspended. In 1972, a referendum allowing Eyadéma to continue passed with 99.9% support. A political party, the Rally for the Togolese People (RPT), was created. In 1979, a referendum restored a constitution, with Togo as a one-party state. 99.9% voted in favour. On the same day, presidential and parliamentary elections saw Eyadema re-elected along with a full slate of RPT lawmakers. In 1985, an RPT parliament was elected again, with Eyadéma re-elected in 1986. Another parliamentary election was held in 1990. The political climate in the early 1990s saw people more emboldened to protest, similar to the situation in Zaire. In 1991, the government negotiated, but tension remained high. A negotiated constitution was put to referendum in 1992, and passed with 99.2% support. However, 1993 presidential elections were boycotted by opposition due to fraud concerns and Eyadéma was re-elected easily. In 1994 parliamentary elections, the opposition did run, with the Action Committee for Renewal (CAR) depriving the RPT of a majority, the overall opposition had a majority in the chamber. Eyadéma named Edem Kodjo from the much smaller Togolese Union for Democracy (UTD) Prime Minister. When he accepted this, the CAR were furious, and broke the agreement. Then, the UTD allied with the RPT, keeping Eyadéma’s allies in power. Kodjo lasted until 1996 when an RPT figure replaced him, after which even nominal opposition participation barely existed. In 1998, Eyadéma was re-elected President with 52.1% support, defeating the Union of Forces for Change (UFC) candidate Gilchrist Olympio, son of Sylvanus Olympio. There were irregularities and the opposition claimed Olympio had run, boycotting 1999 parliamentary elections where no party other than the RPT won seats. In 2002, the opposition boycotted again, and the RPT won most seats. In 2003, Eyadéma won with 57.8% support, beating the UFC’s Emmanuel Bob-Akitani; again the opposition cried foul. Eyadéma died in 2005. His son Faure Gnassingbé replaced him, despite the constitution stating that the Speaker should do so (he was out of the country). Parliament then dismissed the Speaker and appointed Gnassingbé to the role. However, pressure from other West African countries forced him to resign for new elections. He beat Bob-Akitani again with 60.2% of the vote. Again there was violence and accusations of fraud. Negotiations between parties under EU encouragement led to a compromise, with the CAR’s Yawovi Agboyibo becoming Prime Minister in 2006 and elections in 2007. The RPT won a majority and the UFC were the main opposition. In 2010, Gnassingbé won 60.9% of the vote, defeating the UFC’s Jean-Pierre Fabre. Again, the UFC alleged fraud. In 2012, the RPT was replaced by the Union for the Republic (UNIR). They won the 2013 election, with the UFC declining and the Let’s Save Togo Collective (CST) as the main opposition. In 2015, Gnassingbé was re-elected with 58.8% of the vote, beating Fabre, who this time represented the National Alliance for Change (ANC), a UFC split which was part of the CST. In 2018, a boycott was held due to Gnassinbé’s proposed removal of term limits, allowing the UNIR to win easily. Early results in 2020 showed that opposition candidate Agbéyomé Kodjo, of the Patriotic Movement for Democracy and Development (MPDD) could be in the lead, but official results then gave 70.8% to Gnassingbé and Kodjo was placed under house arrest. Later that year, Victoire Tomegah Dogbé became PM. Opposition parties will contest the election, but it seems that the UNIR grip on power is pretty solid at the current time.
Finally, on 30 April, the American consituency of New York’s 26th congressional district will hold a special election. The US has a two-party system, with the liberal Democratic Party and the conservative Republican Party dominating the country. Since the 1990s, New York has been a solidly Democratic or ‘blue’ state, especially in urban and suburban areas. The Republican Donald Trump was elected President in 2016, moving the party in a more right-wing populist direction. However, he lost to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In 2024, a rematch between the two is likely. In 2022 midterm elections, where the governing party is normally punished, the Democrats did better than expected, but lost ground in New York (though were still the largest party in the Empire State). Brian Higgins gained the 27th district for the Democrats in 2004, and with redistricting he became member for the 26th in the 2012 election, winning five more elections after that easily: he won 63.9% of the vote in 2022 compared to the Republican Steven Sams’ 36.0%. Higgins was seen as a pretty unremarkable Democrat and supporter of Joe Biden, but resigned due to what he called increasing “dysfunction” in Congress. Gains in New York helped the Republicans win a very small majority in the 2022 election, but this has led to radical right-wing factions within the party gaining more influence as they can hold the rest of the party hostage. Long negotiations and a number of votes were needed to confirm Republican leader Kevin McCarthy as speaker, and then in 2023 he was removed and replaced by Mike Johnson. The infighting in the Republican caucus and the fact that the Democrats control the Senate and White House mean that the Congress has been very unproductive, unable to pass many bills at all. The local Democrats chose Tim Kennedy, who has served in a safe seat in the state Senate since 2011, defeating an incumbent Democrat who had voted against same-sex marriage. The Republicans have selected town supervisor (local mayor) Gary Dickson. Both have the endorsements of their traditional local allies: the Working Families Party for Kennedy and the Conservative Party of New York State for Dickson. Though Kennedy should win easily, the scale of the margin will show if the Republicans continue to have momentum in New York or not.
Earth Elects 
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