On 10 March, Portugal had general elections. The Democratic Alliance was the top-performing bloc, although did not have a majority.
The facts
The 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic are elected for four-year terms in multi-member PR constituencies, that range from two seats (Portalegre, Europe, Outside Europe) to 48 (Lisbon).
Portugal factfile:
- Population: 10.5 million (2022)
- Religions: Christianity 84.8% (Catholicism 80.2%, Protestantism 2.1%, Jehovah’s Witness 0.7%, Orthodox 0.7%, Others 1.0%), None 14.1%, Other 1.1% (Islam 0.4%, Hinduism 0.2%, Buddhism 0.2%, Judaism 0.0%, Other 0.3%) (2021)
- Ethnicities: No official data is taken on ethnicity, but about 84% of the population is White, with about 16% being immigrants (those of immigrant background with citizenship are not taken into account). Of immigrants, some are White (British, Italian, French, and others), majority are from other backgrounds (Brazilian, Cape Verdean, Indian, Angolan, and others)
- Type of government: Unitary semi-presidential republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: 96/100 (Free)
These elections were snap elections, with the last vote in 2022. In that election, the top party was the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), who won 120 seats from 41.4% of the vote. The party’s leader is Pedro Nuno Santos. Becoming Secretary-General of the youth wing, the centre-left Socialist Youth, in 2004, he was elected to the Assembly for the first time in 2005, representing Aveiro. He continued to lead Socialist Youth until 2008. He continued to be an MP until 2015, when he was appointed Secretary of State for Parliamentary Affairs, serving until 2019 when he was re-elected for Aveiro and also became Minister for Infrastructure and Housing. He stepped down as minister in 2023 after a row over severance pay. In 2023, he was elected as PS Secretary-General, taking office in 2024. The incumbent Prime Minister, António Costa, also comes from this party. Costa was a local politician before his 1991 election to the Assembly for Lisbon, serving until 1995. In 1997, he was named Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, and reshuffled to Minister of Justice in 1999, serving until 2002 when he was re-elected an MP, this time for Leiria. In 2004 he also became a Member of the European Parliament for Portugal. In 2005 he stepped down as MP and MEP to become Minister of Internal Administration, and then resigned in 2007 to run for Mayor of Lisbon; he was elected. In 2014 he was elected PS Secretary-General and thus Leader of the Opposition. In 2015, he resigned as Mayor and was elected to the Assembly for Lisbon. He became Prime Minister in a coalition, still serving as MP until 2019. In 2024 he stepped down as PS Secretary-General following allegations regarding his integrity. Their slogans for this election are “Mais Açao” and “Portugal Inteiro” or “More Action” and “Whole Portugal”.
The second-placed party in 2022 was the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD). Running in each constituency apart from Madiera and the Azores, they won 72 seats and 27.7% of the vote. In Madeira, they ran in a conservative Coalition PSD/CDS with the Christian conservative CDS – People’s Party (CDS-PP, the CDS stands for Democratic and Social Centre) which won an additional three seats and 0.9%. Also, in the Azores, they ran in another conservative coalition called the Democratic Alliance (AD) with the CDS-PP and right-wing monarchist People’s Monarchist Party (PPM), which took another two seats and 0.5%. Their total 77 MPs all came from the PSD. This time, the Democratic Alliance is running in the entire election, apart from in Madeira, where the PSD/CDS coalition and PPM run separately. The leader of the bloc is Luís Montenegro. Montenegro was a councillor and first elected MP for Aveiro in 2002. In 2011, he became President of the PSD’s parliamentary group, serving until 2017. In 2018, he resigned as MP, concerned with the PSD’s direction, but following the 2022 election he was elected PSD President and Leader of the Opposition. Their slogans are “Acreditar na Mudança” and “A mudança está nas tuas mãos” or “Believe in Change” and “Change is in your hands”.
The third largest party in 2022 was the right-wing populist and nationalist Chega (Enough), who won 7.2% of the vote and twelve seats. Its leader is André Ventura. Ventura used to be a PSD member, and was elected to Loures City Council in 2017, serving until 2018. After this, he left the PSD and founded Chega, becoming its first President in 2019. Later that year he was elected MP for Lisbon. Also, in 2021 he joined Moura’s Municipal Council. Their slogan is “Limpiar Portugal” or “Clean up Portugal”.
Fourth in 2022 was the right-wing liberal Liberal Initiative (IL), who won 4.9% of the vote and eight seats. Its leader is Rui Rocha. An IL activist, he was elected to the Assembly for the first time in 2022 for Braga, and in 2023 was elected party President. Their slogan is “Portugal com Futuro” or “Portugal with Future”.
The next force in 2022 was the far-left Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), which won 4.3% of the vote and six seats. This is a coalition between the communist Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the eco-socialist Ecologist Party “The Greens” (PEV), with all six MPs coming from the PCP. Their leader is Paulo Raimundo, who was elected PCP General-Secretary in 2022. Their slogan is “Mais CDU, vida melhor” or “More CDU, better life”.
The socialist Left Bloc (BE) won five seats from 4.4% of the vote in 2022. Its leader is Mariana Mortágua, who was first elected an MP for Lisbon in 2013. In 2023, she was elected the party’s National Coordinator. Their slogan is “Fazer o que nunca foi feito” or “Do what has never been done”.
The centre-left environmentalist People Animals Nature (PAN) won one seat from 1.6% of the vote in 2022. Their leader is Inês Sousa Real, first elected MP for Lisbon in 2019 and elected party Spokesperson in 2021. Their slogan is “Avançamos pelas Causas” or “We advance for Causes”.
The final party to win a seat last time was the progressive LIVRE (FREE), who won one seat from 1.3% of the vote in 2022. They have two leaders. The first is Rui Tavares, who was elected a BE MEP in 2009, but left the party to become an independent member of the green and regionalist Greens-European Free Alliance (Greens-EFA) group in 2011, serving until 2014. After this, he formed LIVRE, and in 2021 was elected to Lisbon City Council and in 2022 as an MP for Lisbon. The other party leader is Teresa Mota, a researcher. The party slogan is “Contrato com o Futuro” or “Contract with the Future”.
The composition of the parliament did not change during the term, apart from one PSD member leaving and serving as an independent. Other parties that did not win a seat in 2022 are also running.
António Costa was sworn in as PM again after the PS won a majority in 2022, but there was some scandals, and the way in which the police was used also created tension with the President (who is from the PSD). In Operation Influencer, the Prime Minister’s residence was searched and his chief of staff arrested around a corruption case. He quickly announced his resignation. Though the PS had a majority, every other party apart from the PS and PAN supported an early election. The President decided to dissolve the Assembly and call a new election.
In the 2022-24 term, a number of leadership elections were held, which can be compared to primary elections in other countries as they choose a candidate for Prime Minister. The leader of the CDS-PP resigned on 2022 election night after they lost all seats and Nuno Melo was easily elected leader. The PSD leader also resigned, and Montenegro was pretty easily chosen. The PCP leader resigned due to health reasons, and Raimundo was the only candidate. The IL leadership election was close, with Rocha narrowly defeating MP Carla Castro. Sousa Real was re-elected PAN leader as well, while Mortágua was easily elected BE leader. After Costa resigned, Santos defeated Minister of Internal Administration José Luís Carneiro.
Polling suggested the AD as the largest bloc, but without a coalition, with the PS in second and Chega making big gains in third. The IL and BE would make modest gains, LIVRE would gain to go with that, and the CDU and PAN would decline somewhat. With this unclear picture, there was a lack of clarity over who would govern. Both the PS and AD were against working with each other, but at the same time, did not want Chega to govern and the President (who is supposed to be neutral) said he may intervene to prevent this. Despite some economic growth, there were also a number of problems regarding inflation, housing, education and health. A large amount of debates were had, with all eight represented blocs having their leader participate in head to head debates with each other leader: this culminated in the final such debate between Santos and Montenegro. After that, there were two debates with all leaders, although Ventura missed the second one. Another debate was also held with the other parties (who had zero seats).
The final results showed the Democratic Alliance winning. Outside Madeira, they won 28.0% of the vote (down 1.8%) and 77 seats (up three). The PSD/CDS-PP coalition in Madeira won 0.8% (down 0.1%) and three seats (no change), while the PPM won 0.0% (no change) and no seats (no change). In total, the AD won eighty seats (up three) from 28.8% of the vote (down 1.9%). The Socialist Party took 28.0% of the vote (down 13.4%) and 78 seats (down 42). Chega took 18.1% (up 10.9%) and fifty seats (up 38). The Liberal Initiative won 4.9% (no change) and eight seats (no change). The Left Bloc took 4.4% (no change) and five seats (no change), while the Unitary Democratic Coalition won 3.2% (down 1.1%) and four seats (down two). LIVRE won 3.2% (up 1.9%) and four seats (up three), while People Animals Nature won 2.0% (up 0.4%) and one seat (no change). No other party won 2% or any seats. 1.4% of votes were blank and 3.0% were invalid. Turnout was 59.9% (up 8.4%).
The Socialists were the top party in Beja, Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Évora, Lisbon, Portalegre, Santarém, and Setúbal. Their top vote share was in Castelo Branco (34.2%) and their lowest Outside Europe (14.6%). They won at least one seat in every constituency apart from Outside Europe. For the AD, they took the Azores, Aveiro, Braga, Bragança, Guarda, Leiria, Porto, Viana do Castelo, Vila Real, Viseu, and Outside Europe constituencies, while the PSD/CDS-PP coalition took Madeira. The vote share ranged from 40.0% (Bragança) to 14.2% (Europe). They won a seat in every constituency apart from Portalegre and Europe. Chega won the Faro and Europe constituencies. Their vote ranged from 27.2% (Faro) to 15.3% (Porto), and they won a seat everywhere but Bragança. The IL’s highest vote share was in Lisbon (6.6%) and lowest was in Brgança (1.7%). They took three seats in Lisbon, two in Porto, and one each in Aveiro, Braga, and Setúbal. The BE’s share ranged from 6.0% in Setúbal and 1.9% in Bragança and Outside Europe. They got two seats in Lisbon and Porto and one in Setúbal. The CDU ranged from 15.0% in Beja to 0.8% Outside Europe. They got two seats in Lisbon and one each in Porto and Setúbal. LIVRE got 5.5% in Lisbon and 0.7% Outside Europe. Two seats came in Lisbon, and one each in Porto and Setúbal. Finally, PAN ranged from 2.6% in Setúbal to 0.8% in Bragança and Portalegre. Their seat came in Lisbon (2.5%).
There was not too big a gap by sex, although men had the AD as their top vote and women as PS. The most pronounced difference was Chega: 21% with men and 15% with women. Vote varied much more widely with age. Amongst 18-34-year-olds, the AD were top on 28%, with Chega on 25%, the PS on 13% and IL on 11%, with the BE and LIVRE on 6%, CDU on 2%, and PAN on 1%. Amongst those above 65, the PS were the top party on 48%, with the AD on 28%, Chega on just 8%, the CDU on 5%, the BE on 3%, and IL on just 1% (as were LIVRE and PAN). The PS were the top party with those with no higher education than high school (32%), alongside the AD (26%) and Chega (22%). Amongst graduates, the AD (36%) were top, ahead of the PS (23%), Chega (11%), and IL (8%).
After the election, Montenegro claimed victory and Santos conceded defeat, knowing that even a left-wing coalition was impossible. Montenegro claimed he would not go into agreement with Chega, although Ventura celebrated what he called the death of Portugal’s two-party system. Rocha stated that though forming the government was not the IL’s responsibility, he would work with every party bar Chega. Mortágua said she would only participate in a left-wing government, while Raimundo blamed the PS for Chega’s rise and PAN blamed the President. Both Santos and Ventura said they would vote against the AD’s laws, but Santos would not oppose Montenegro becoming PM and forming a government. Montenegro now leads an AD minority government.
Analysis
Portugal’s party system, as so many of the European systems have, has faced its biggest challenge in years with the quadrupling of the Chega vote. Portugal was invaded from Africa and became part of al-Andalus until the Reconquista. Portugal won independence from the Spanish kingdoms and became an important European empire as an absolute monarchy. In 1820, the Liberal Revolution, trigerred by the moving of the royal court to Brazil (part of the Portuguese Empire), modified this to a constitutional monarchy with a level of democratic elections. Movements included the Cartistas (Chartists) who became the conservative Regenerator Party, and the more liberal Historic Party. The progressive Reformist Party split from the Historic Party, and then merged back into a new Progressive Party. The monarchy finally ended after a revolution in 1910 by the Republicans. They would then be the dominant party, but soon factionalise. Parties included the Democratic Party (the ‘official’ Republican Party), Evolutionist Party, and Republican Union. Another coup in 1917 introduced a presidential state, dominated by Sidónio Pais and his National Republican Party. After Pais’ assassination in 1918, the old party system (and governmental system) was restored. The Evolutionists and Republican Union merged into the Republican Liberal Party, who won the 1921 election, but their figures were killed in a military coup known as the Bloody Night. Democratic elections still took place until the right-wing miliatry coup of 1926. The Military Dictatorship was replaced by a Ditadura Nacional (National Dictatorship) in 1928. The military officers appoined the economics professor António de Oliveira Salazar as Finance Minister. His wing of right-wing intellectuals would soon overake the military figures.
In 1932, Salazar would become Prime Minister, and formed a new state, similar to fascism (although not explicitly fascist but ‘corporatist’). It was called the Estado Novo (New State), passed with 99.5% support in a referendum. At the time, it was seen as progress from a chaotic, liberal system. It differed from the fascist state in that the party, the National Union, was not very active or powerful, in fact just an arm of the regime. Salazar would remain as Prime Minister, with opposition candidates not allowed. After World War II and the defeat of fascism in 1945, Salazar was concerned with the regime’s image and opposition was allowed to run, but they boycotted elections due to suppression (in 1958, an opposition candidate did run in the presidential election, winning 23.6% despite fraud and harrassment). Salazar was removed in 1968 after falling into a coma. He was replaced by Marcelo Caetano, a long time lieutenant. The National Union became the People’s National Action. By now, the opposition was more organised, but still suppressed. Though autocracy had replaced a chaotic liberal system, few still remembered it, and decades of authoritarianism had weighed heavy, with persecution by the secret police. Portugal had also refused to give up its colonies, fighting colonial wars, creating international isolation. Finally, a coup was led by left-wing junior officers called the Armed Forces Movement (MFA). A National Salvation Junta was formed to lead a transition to democracy. This period is known as the Carnation Revolution.
The Constituent Assembly elections took place in 1975. The Socialist Party (PS), created in exile in West Germany, was a leading opponent of the Estado Novo, and won 116 seats. Another party, the People’s Democratic Party (PPD), was more centrist than the PS, and won 81. In third was the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), who took thirty seats. The Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), who were a Christian conservative party, won sixteen. The Portuguese Democratic Movement (MDP), a left-wing party that was formed as an opposition party before the Revolution, won five seats. The People’s Democratic Union (UDP), a Marxist party, one won seat, while the remaining seat went to the Association for the Defense of Macau Interests (ADIM), based in the Province of Macau. The first normal elections were held in 1976. The PS won 106 seats, with the PPD taking 73. The CDS won 42 seats, overtaking the PCP on forty, The UDP kept their sole seat, while the MDP did not run and nor did the ADIM as Macau became an Autonomous Region and no longer part of Portuguese elections as part of the government’s decolonial agenda. PS leader Mário Soares became the first Prime Minister of Portugal’s constitutional government.
In 1976, the PPD would be renamed the Social Democratic Party (PSD). Despite this, it would become a centre-right party in opposition to the centre-left PS. In the presidential election, António Ramalho Eanes, endorsed by the PS, PSD, and CDS was elected with 61.6%. He was not a politician but a military figure who joined the MFA during the Revolution and was made president of Portugal’s public television. When, in 1975, communists attempted a coup to turn the Revolution from a democratic one to a communist one, Ramalho Eanes was among the leading figures putting it down. This ended the “Hot Summer” of 1975 when communists and democrats nearly came to civil war. This was a victory for the democrats. Soares lost a vote of no confidence in 1977, and formed a coalition with the CDS in 1978. However, later that year it broke up due to disagreements between the PS and CDS. Ramalho Eanes tried to introduce independents as PM, but neither former Minister of Industry and Technology Alfredo Nobre da Costa nor former Minister of Commerce Carlos Mota Pinto could command confidence in Parliament. In 1979 the caretaker Maria de Lourdes Pintasligo, former Minister of Social Affairs, was sworn in pending early elections.
This election saw the birth of the Democratic Alliance (AD) between the PSD, CDS, and small People’s Monarchist Party (PPM) who won 0.5% of the vote at the last election. The AD won with a total of 128 seats (121 together and seven for the PSD alone in the Azores and Madeira, with a total of 73 for the PSD, 43 for the CDS, and five for the PPM), a majority, while the PS won 74. The PCP and PDM ran together in the United People’s Alliance (APU) and won 47 seats (44 for the PCP and three for the PDM), with the UDP on one. Francisco Sá Carneiro became PM in 1980. However, regular elections scheduled in 1980 still needed to take place despite the snap election. The AD won an increased majority of 134 seats (126 together and eight for the PSD alone in the Azores and Madeira, with a total of 74 for the PSD, 36 for the CDS, and six for the PPM). The PS formed a Republican and Socialist Front (FRS) with the Left-wing Union for the Socialist Democracy, a group of independents, and the Independent Social Democratic Action, a split from the PSD. This won 74 seats (71 for the FRS together and three for the PS alone in the Azores or Madeira, with 63 for the PS and four each for the Left-wing Union and Independent Social Democratic Action). The APU won 41 seats (39 for the PCP and two for the MDP) and the UDP kept their seat in Lisbon. Sá Carneiro stayed on as PM. Months later, he died in a plane crash in suspicious circumstances that are still not clear. CDS leader Diego Freitas do Amaral became Interim PM.
This event happened days before the presidential election. Ramalho Eanes was supported by the PS and PCP, while military officer António Soares Carneiro was supported by the AD. Ramalho Eanes won 56.4%, while Soares Carneiro took 40.2%. The PSD chose Francisco Pinto Balsemão to replace Sá Carneiro, and he duly became PM in 1981. After losses in the local elections in 1982 for the AD, a snap election was called in 1983. The FRS was disbaneded, with the two minor parties integrated in the PS and soon fully merging into it. The PS became the top party with 101 seats. The AD was also dissolved, and the PDS won 75 seats on their own. The UPA won 44 (41 for the PCP and three for the MDP), with the CDS down to thirty. The PPM could not win any seats alone, and the UDP also lost its seat. Mário Soares formed a PS-PSD coalition government. A new PSD leader, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, was elected in 1985, and he did not support the coalition and so felled the government. In the snap election, the PSD won 88 seats, and the PS 57. The Democratic Renewal Party, founded by Ramalho Eanes and supposed to be in the centre, won 45 seats. The UPA took 38 (35 for the PCP and three for the MDP) and the CDS won 22. A minority government was formed under Cavaco Silva. The next presidential election was in 1986. Freitas do Amaral was the CDS candidate, also supported by the PDS, while Soares was the PS candidate. Former Minister of Justice Salgado Zenha was supported by the PRD and PCP. In the end, Freitas do Amaral got 46.3%, Soares 25.4%, and Zenha 20.9%. However, Zenha supported Soares in the second round, and he won with 51.2% of the vote.
Along with the PSD, the Socialist Party is the main force in Portuguese politics
The PRD withdrew support for the PSD government after they travelled to Estonia, part of the Soviet Union but recognised as an occupied territory rather than a legitimate part. However, the PSD won a majority with 148 seats, and the PS won sixty. The Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), an alliance between the PCP and the green Ecologist Party “The Greens” (PEV) won 31 seats, 29 for the PCP and two for The Greens. The PRD were punished for removing the PSD with just seven seats, and the CDS fell to four as the PSD picked up most of its votes. Cavaco Silva continued as PM. In 1991, Soares was re-elected with 70.4% of the vote. The PSD put up no opposition to his re-election, focusing on the parliamentary election that year. They kept their majority with 135 seats, while the PS won 72, the CDU seventeen (fifteen for the PCP and two for the Greens), the CDS five, and the pensioners’ National Solidarity Party (PSN) one in Lisbon. The PRD dropped out and lost all relevance. Cavaco Silva stayed as PM. In 1992, trying to emulate the successful Spanish party, the CDS became the CDS – People’s Party (CDS-PP, the acronym ‘CDS’ was part of the official full name). Cavaco Silva did not run in 1995, leading to a bitter leadership election. In these circumstances, the PS won 112 seats compared to 88 for the PSD, and fifteen each for the CDS-PP and CDU (thirteen for the PCP and two for The Greens). The PSN dropped out of Parliament and soon disappeared. PS leader António Guterres became PM in a minority government. Meanwhile, Cavaco Silva was the PSD candidate for President in 1996, also with CDS-PP support. Former Mayor of Lisbon Jorge Sampaio was the PS candidate, and won with 53.9% of the vote in the two-man race.
In 1999, the PS won 115 seats (exactly half), with 81 for the PSD, seventeen for the CDU (fifteen for the PCP and two for The Greens), fifteen for the CDS-PP and two for the new Left Bloc (BE), a merger between the UDP and others. Thus Guterres’ minority government continued. Sampaio was re-elected President in 2001 with 55.6% support, beating the PSD and CDS-PP candidate, former minister Joaquim Ferreira do Amaral, who got 34.7%. However, after defeat in the 2001 local election, Guterres resigned as PM and called snap elections for 2002. The PSD won with 105 seats, with 96 for the PS, fourteen for the CDS-PP, twelve for the CDU (ten for the PCP and two for The Greens) and three for the BE. A PDS/CDS-PP coalition was formed under José Manuel Barroso, who resigned in 2004 to become President of the European Commission. The government continued under Mayor of Lisbon Pedro Santana Lopes. However, the PSD squabbled and Sampaio decided to dissolve the Assembly, which was a clear intervention, showing the Presidency to be more active than other countries. The PS won a majority with 121 seats, while the PSD fell to 75. The CDU won fourteen (twelve for the PCP and two for The Greens), the CDS-PP twelve and the BE eight. José Sócrates became PM. In 2006, Cavaco Silva was elected President with PSD and CDS-PP support, and 50.5% of the vote. Socialist Manuel Alegre ran as an independent (20.7%) and got more of the vote than the official PS candidate Mário Soares (14.3%). The PS lost their majority in 2009, with 97 seats compared to 81 for the PSD. The CDS-PP won 21, BE sixteen, and CDU fifteen (thirteen for the PCP and two for The Greens). They continued in a minority.
Cavaco Silva was re-elected in 2011 with PSD and CDS-PP support and 53.0% of the vote. Socialist candidate Manuel Alegre got 19.7% while independent Fernando Nobre got 14.1%. Amidst a financial crisis and request for aid, when the PSD voted down a bailout deal an early election was called in 2011. The PSD won 108 seats, with the PS on 74, CDS-PP on 24, CDU on sixteen (fourteen for the PCP and two for The Greens) and Left Bloc eight. A PSD/CDS-PP coalition was formed under PSD leader Pedro Passos Coelho. This lasted the full term until 2015, where the PSD and CDS ran together under the name Portugal Ahead (PáF). They won 102 seats, plus five for the PSD alone in the Azores and Madeira with the PS on 86, Left Bloc up to nineteen, CDU on seventeen, and the new progressive, environmentalist and animalist People Animals Nature (PAN) on one. The coalition continued but in a minority for a month, when a Socialist minority government with BE and CDU support under António Costa was formed. In 2016, the PSD’s former leader Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, also supported by the CDS-PP, was elected President with 52.0%, beating independent António Sampaio da Nóvoa, one of two candidates supported by the PS, on 22.9% and the Left Bloc’s Marisa Matias on 10.1%.
The PS won in 2019 with 108 seats, compared to 79 for the PSD, nineteen for the BE, twelve for the CDU, just five for the CDS-PP, and four for PAN. Three new parties one one seat: the right-wing populist Chega (Enough), the right-libertarian Liberal Initiative (IL), and the progressive LIVRE. The BE and CDU again were backing up Costa. In 2021, Rebelo de Sousa was re-elected with 60.7% of the vote. After the BE and CDU rejected Costa’s budget, a new election was held in 2022. This backfired as the PS won a majority with 120 seats. The PSD won 72 seats, plus three for an alliance with the CDS-PP called Madeira First in Madeira, and two for one with the CDS-PP and PPM in the Azores, a revival of the AD. Chega went up to twelve seats and the IL up to eight, as the young (especially young men) opted for new ideologies. The CDU and BE went down to six and five seats respectively, while PAN and LIVRE won one, and the CDS-PP, a mainstay in Portuguese politics and often the third force, were demolished completely. Costa formed a majority government. This also ended a leadership struggle in the PSD. After poor 2017 local elections, Passos Coelho did not run for re-election as PSD leader in 2018. Rui Rio narrowly beat former PM Pedro Santana Lopes to become PSD leader. This led to Luís Montenegro, former caucus leader, resigning from parliament in protest. Rio was then narrowly re-elected against Montenegro in 2020 and against Paulo Rangel MEP in 2021. Rio was considered a centrist, but finally resigned in the wake of the 2022 election defeat.
After this, Montenegro defeated former PSD youth leader Jorge Moreira da Silva to become party leader. Meanwhile, Costa’s government was pretty difficult. Scandals involve state-owned airline TAP Air Portugal, with the severance pay to a government minister. This led to the resignation of the incumbent minister Pedro Nuno Santos. His successor João Galamba also had criticisms levelled against him. In 2023, the Public Prosecution Service began an investigation into corruption regarding four government deals (a data centre, green energy project, and two lithium mines). Galamba was named a suspect and resigned, as did Costa. Even though the PS had a majority and could form a new government (something supported by PAN but no other party), Rebelo de Sousa called a new election. Since then, the investigation has been criticised, with some seeing it as politically motivated. It also led to discussion on the role of the President. The President is not as powerless as in some European countries like Germany and Italy, but he is also not as powerful as most semi-presidential countries like France. He still uses his powers to pick and choose the government, and can also use certain powers regarding war and calling early elections, which he did this time.
Costa would be caretaker PM until elections (and a new government was formed), but would not lead the PS into the election: instead Pedro Nuno Santos defeated former Minister of Internal Administration José Luis Carneiro in a leadership election; Nuno Santos was considered the more left-wing of the two. The AD was also revived for this election, probably because it was the only way for the CDS-PP to get back into Parliament (and the PPM also would be crazy not to take the deal, having been irrelevant without it). With Chega expected to gain in the polls to become a third party, which is becoming common for right-wing parties in Europe (to the right of a ‘centre-right’ party: these include the National Rally (France), Alternative for Germany, Vox (Spain), the Sweden Democrats, the Finns Party, and several others), it was obvious that an alliance of two of the three biggest parties (AD, PS, Chega), was needed. With a PS-Chega alliance nonsensical, would the AD choose the PS or Chega? In the Azores, one of two autonomous regions, the AD got in power with Chega, IL, and PAN abstentions, but not a coalition.
The AD vote share went down a little from 2022, but if they lost votes to Chega, they gained some from the PS. They won 77 seats, plus three for the Madeira First list in Madeira which excluded the PPM, for a total of eighty. The PS dropped to 78, while Chega skyrocketed to fifty. Chega is most popular amongst the young, and more popular amongst men than women (the only party where there is a notable difference amongst genders). The IL kept its eight seats, a decent result for them. They are also popular amongst the young, although they are preferred by the educated young, while Chega is more popular amongst those with less education. Also, Chega still has some votes amongst older people, while the IL is nearly exclusively voted for by the young. The IL is a liberal party in all senses of the word, and though libertarians have often flirted with the radical right in some countries, this faction of the party has mostly just directly joined Chega, meaning those who are left have no interest in working with them. Unlike the radical right, the radical left failed to make any gains, with five seats for the Left Bloc and four for the CDU alliance of the PCP and PEV. The APU, a precursor to the CDU, won 44 seats in 1979. In most countries, radical left-wing parties have not capitalised on economic problems and other issues, which normally drives people to extremes: instead, the radical right have done well. Instead, the BE is mostly a party amongst young students and professionals, with the PCP mostly supported by old people who remember the party’s heydays of winning a fifth of the national vote. LIVRE, a progressive, but not explicitly socialist force also made gains, from one seat to four, and PAN stayed on one. No other party won seats, though the Christian right-wing National Democratic Alternative (ADN), supported mostly by evangelical Brazilian immigrants (in Brazil, the evangelical movement has huge sway on politics) came close.
After all this, the PS did tacitly allow the PSD to form a minority government, although this prerogative is with President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. However, to be appointed Prime Minister is one thing, to actually get your budgets through is another. With elections in the other autonomous region (Madeira) in May and then the EU in June, parties would stay in campaign mode rather than cooperation mode. However, for now at least, Montenegro is Prime Minister.
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