On 9 March, Pakistan held its presidential election, with Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan Peoples Party elected President.
The facts
Pakistani presidential elections are indirect in nature, elected for a five-year term by a body called the Electoral College of Pakistan convened for this purpose. It consists of both houses of parliament (the Senate and National Assembly) and the four provincial legislatures (Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh). Each of the votes cast by a member of the federal parliament is worth one vote, while those from the provinces are weighted to be equal to the province with the least members (65): thus, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, who has 145 members, sees each MPA get 0.448 votes (65 divided by 145), while Sindh (168) gets a weight of 0.387 and Punjab (371) gets a weight of 0.175.
Pakistan factfile:
- Population: 241.5 million (2023)
- Religions: Islam (excl. Ahmadiyya) 96.5% (Majority are Sunni, (majority Barelvi, minority Deobandi), minority Shia), Hinduism 2.1%, Christianity 1.3%, Ahmadiyya 0.1%, Others 0.0% (2017)
- Ethnicities: Various indigenous groups including Punjabis, Pashtuns, Sindhis, Saraikis, Muhajirs, and Balochis, also some foreign groups, especially Afghan refugees which include Pashtuns and others
- Type of government: Federal parliamentary Islamic republic
- Freedom in the World 2024 score: 35/100 (Partly Free)
The incumbent President is Arif Alvi of the populist centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, Pakistan Movement for Justice). Alvi, a prominent dentist by profession, rose through the ranks in the PTI and in 2013 was elected to the National Assembly for the NA-250 (Karachi-XII) constituency. He served until the 2018 dissolution, and in the election he was elected for the NA-247 (Karachi South-II) constituency. He stepped down as MNA the next month as he was elected President.
Two candidates ran this time. Asif Ali Zardari ran for the centre-left Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). In 1988, he became the Spouse of the Prime Minister (or ‘first gentleman’) when his wife became PM, being in this role until the 1990 election. He was elected to the National Assembly for the first time in that vote, serving until the 1993 dissolution. He was re-elected in that election, and with PPP victory became Spouse of the PM again. He was also appointed Federal Minister for Environment and in 1995 Federal Minister for Investment, serving in all roles until the 1996 dissolution. In 1997, he was elected to the Senate, serving until the 1999 coup (when the constitutional structure was suspended). In 2007, on his wife’s assassination, he became Co-Chairperson of the PPP in accordance with her will. In 2008, he was elected President of Pakistan, serving until 2013. He continued as Co-Chairperson of the PPP until 2015, when he became President of its dormant satellite, the PPP Parliamentarians. In 2018, he was elected to the National Assembly, serving until the 2023 dissolution, and was re-elected in 2024.
The other candidate is Mahmood Khan Achakzai of the Pashtun nationalist Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PMAP). He succeeded his father as party Chairman in 1973. He first election as MNA came in 1993 for the NA-197 (Quetta-cum-Chagai) constituency, until the 1996 dissolution. He lost his seat but in 2002 was elected for the NA-262 (Killa Abdullah) constituency, until the 2007 dissolution. He boycotted this election but in 2013 was elected to the NA-259 (Quetta) constituency, serving until 2018. In 2024 he was elected to the NA-266 (Killa Abdullah-cum-Chaman) constituency.
This election was delayed by the dissolution of parliament but held after the 2024 election. In this controversial vote, the PPP joined a coalition government as the second force in it, and the coalition partners supported Zardari. Meanwhile, the Achakzai campaign mostly relied on the PTI, now the main opposition.
In the end, Asif Ali Zardari of the Pakistan People’s Party won 716 votes, weighted to 411 (69.4%). Mahmood Khan Achakzai of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party won 319, weighted to 181 (30.6%). 0.9% of votes were invalid or blank while turnout was 85.1%. Zardari was strong in the federal parliament and Punjab, completely dominated Sindh and Balochistan (the latter unanimously), but Achakzai won Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Zardari was congratulated by the government and Achakzai, although the PTI criticised his “unconstitutional” victory.
Analysis
Asif Ali Zardari’s victory was guaranteed by the 2024 election result, and keeps one of Pakistan’s most important dynasties going: once a target of Pakistan’s military establishment, the Bhutto clan and its party, the PPP, is now accused by the PTI of being an asset of it. Pakistan is a parliamentary country, but the role of President has changed over time. Pakistan was previously under British rule, part of the British Raj. The independence movement was led by the Indian National Congress (INC), but amongst Muslims, the All-India Muslim League (AIML) was most popular. They demanded a separate state for Muslims, and they got it: Pakistan.
Initially, Pakistan was a monarchy, with King George VI of the United Kingdom also King of Pakistan, and this line continuing as the Pakistani monarchy. However, a Pakistani Governor-General would be appointed to actually carry out the majority of monarchical duties: the first was independence hero Muhammad Ali Jinnah. In 1956, Pakistan became a republic, and Governor-General Iskandar Ali Mirza became President. The job of President was thus meant to be similar to that of the British monarchy: smile and wave, cut ribbons, and shake every politicians’ hand equally. In fact, Mirza was going to be replaced in an election so called martial law, and the military soon removed Mirza himself in a coup. This begun the trend of military intervention in Pakistan’s politics. Ayub Khan became President, and the post of Prime Minister was suspended: Muhammad Ayub Khan became Chief Martial Law Administrator. In 1969, he was removed amongst mass protests, from the Bengali nationalist Awami League in East Pakistan and the leftist PPP in West Pakistan. He resigned and was replaced by Yahya Khan for 1970 elections.
Under Yahya Khan, elections were held in 1970: these were won by the Awami League, but the PPP swept West Pakistan. The West Pakistan-based military establishment were unwilling to give up power, and this led to East Pakistani protests, which were brutally suppressed, and then a successful war of independence, becoming Bangladesh. In West Pakistan, which was now the entirety of Pakistan, huge anger led to Yahya Khan’s ouster and his handing of power to PPP leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. He became President in 1971 and in 1973 Prime Minister in the restoration of the constitutional order (Speaker and PPP member Fazal Ilhahi Chaudhury became President). After the PPP won again in 1977, another coup took place led by Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. Bhutto was executed in the coup, known as Operation Fair Play. He became Chief Martial Law Administrator, and also assumed the presidency in 1978. Fair elections were not restored until Zia’s death in a plane crash in 1988. The PPP won the election under Benazir Bhutto, daugther of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan at this stage was a two-party system, with the PPP challenging Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N), (PML-N, the N standing for Nawaz), who traced their lineage to the AIML. Independent bureaucrat Ghulam Ishaq Khan took office as President, but would have a pretty active role in the job, dismissing Bhutto for corruption. In the very controversial 1990 elections, the PML-N-led alliance won power and Nawaz Sharif became PM. In 1993, Khan then tried to remove Nawaz, and a compromise was reached where Nawaz would go, but so would Khan. Bhutto regained power in this election, and the PPP’s Farooq Leghari, Minister of Water and Power in the previous government, became President.
Before his arranged marriage to Benazir Bhutto, Asif Ali Zardari was a somewhat unknown figure. Though he did not participate in the 1988-1990 government (in accordance with her wishes), he entered parliament at the 1990 election from jail. He was there because, even before he was elected, the accusations of corruption and influence-peddling were coming in. In the 1993 government, he did have a cabinet role (Environment), and from then on became an active politician. There was also a feud in the Bhutto family. Benazir’s brother, Murtaza Bhutto, fled to communist Afghanistan after Operation Fair Play and formed a left-wing radical group of PPP dissenters known as al-Zulfikar (named after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto), which is generally considered a terrorist organisation. Murtaza Bhutto wanted Zardari removed from influence: Benazir Bhutto sided with Zardari, but her mother (and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s wife) Nusrat Bhutto sided with Murtaza Bhutto. In 1996, Murtaza Bhutto was killed by police, and many attribute this to the influence of Zardari. At this point, Leghari, who was already critical of his own party’s corruption, dismissed Benazir Bhutto for new elections. These were won by the PML-N, but in 1999 Pervez Musharraf led what was Pakistan’s latest coup.
Musharraf used the style ‘Chief Executive’ rather than Chief Martial Law Administrator, but it was basically the same, in 2001 he assumed the Presidency as well. He restored elections in 2002, when he formed his own party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam Group) (PML-Q, Quaid e Azam means Great Leader and refers to Muhammad Ali Jinnah), which won against the banned PPP who were forced into using the PPP Parliamentarians satellite. The PML-N had a very bad election, coming forth behind the Islamists. Benazir Bhutto was in exile in the United Arab Emirates at the time, having been in the United Kingdom when she was sentenced for corruption, while Zardari was in jail (even though they claimed these were politically motivated, Bhutto was also wanted and even convicted in exile in Switzerland). The PML-N and Nawaz Sharif was also suppressed. Nawaz was jailed and probably only spared life by American and Saudi intervention, Saudi Arabia, an ally of Nawaz then managed to secure his exile in Saudi Arabia. Three men were Prime Minister in the PML-Q government of 2002, but Musharraf as President was considered the main figure.
In 2007, parliament was dissolved for 2008 elections. Meanwhile, the US and UK, who considered Pakistan an important ally in the War of Terror, were losing faith in Musharraf, and started to press strongly and negotiate for both Bhutto and Nawaz’s reconciliation with the authorities, as well as each other. Thus, in 2007 she returned to Pakistan for elections. There, she was assassinated, probably by Islamists. After this, Zardari, who had been in exile in the UAE, returned and became the new Co-Chairperson of the PPP, with Bhutto’s will (it was however his own decision to share the job because of his own unpopularity). Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan as well. The PPP defeated the PML-N and PML-Q at the 2008 election. After the PPP and PML-N tried to impeach Musharraf, he resigned before he was pushed. Asif Ali Zardari was elected President. Again, the President was a more relevant figure than both of the Prime Ministers in this government, thus making the role more important. In 2013, the PML-N won elections, and Nawaz Sharif became PM. Thus, the premiership became the main role again, with Mamnoon Hussain a far less influential figure. The PPP dropped to second, with the PTI, a populist party centred around famous cricketer Imran Khan, coming third. Nawaz Sharif was himself disqualified from holding office in 2017 for failing to disclose employment, causing conflict of interest concerns. He later fled to the UK.
In 2018 elections, the PTI became the largest party, and Imran Khan the Prime Minister. The PML-N were the main opposition and PPP third. Imran Khan became PM in a coalition government, and Arif Alvi became the President. Again, Khan was the main figure. He stayed in office until 2022, when he was removed after defections in a vote of no confidence. There is controversy over the level of involvement the United States had in this. Khan’s refusal to distance himself from Russia following the beginning of the war with Ukraine (including being in Russia when the invasion started), led to criticism from the US, who noted that as long as Khan was in government both they and Europe would isolate Pakistan. That Khan leaked this after he was removed gave impetus to legal proceedings against him for leaking state secrets. That said, Khan was removed in a constitutional way, after attempting to dissolve the National Assembly but being blocked by the court. Shehbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif, became PM. After this, Nawaz Sharif returned and was soon acquitted from cases. It is also notable that the PPP sided with its one-time chief rival Nawaz. Meanwhile, PTI supporters rallied and protested in the streets, which added fuel to an already firey situation. Their message is that, the United States, the politically-motivated Pakistani military “Establishment”, along with puppets like the government parties, judiciary, and police, are waging a battle against the PTI and the ordinary people who support it, with political charges against Khan. In the 2024 election, the PTI were banned from contesting the election on a technicality, forcing their members to be independents, and banning them from PR seats. This helped the PML-N to win ahead of the PTI and PPP, though the PTI have alleged rigging and the PTI had the most votes. Shehbaz Sharif soldiers on as PM, in an agreement with the PPP that would make the controversial Zardari President, something that duly happened at this election. It is clear that there was some actions that made the elections unfair, but also, the PTI, though fighting a headwind, still operate. Thus, Pakistan can be classed as a hybrid regime. It should be noted that the establishment has changed sides plenty of times: Nawaz Sharif and the Bhuttos were Pervez Musharraf’s biggest foe, but Musharraf ended up being sentenced to death in exile (though this was later overturned) for high treason, he died in the UAE. A PTI figure did not run against Zardari, instead a candidate from their allies the BMAP ran instead, not that it made any difference. Right now, Khan has joined the canon of parties with the PPP and PML-N, although he is in disfavour with the elite, who have struck him hard. These things can change quickly, and it is possible Pakistan will be a very different place in 2029, when the next elections are due… if of course, they happen then at all.
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