After a bumper set of May elections, voting continues apace at June, so let’s take a look at what races are up for grabs.
On 1 June, India held the seventh phase of its general election. India was formerly under British rule, with the Indian National Congress (INC) the main force for independence, while the All-India Muslim League (AIML) was popular in Muslim areas. Thus, India was split into two countries: Pakistan for Muslims, and India for others. The INC dominated Indian politics after this, with Prime Minister Jawalharlal Nehru governing from independence in 1947 to his death in 1964. In 1966, Indira Gandhi became PM, and a controversial state of emergency led to her defeat when democracy was restored in 1977. However, there was still no real viable and stable force to counter the INC, and the disparate opposition-turned-government fell apart in 1980. A force that eventually grew was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People’s Party), which is Hindu nationalist and right-wing in orientation. The INC has a less clear ideology in modern times, considered more progressive by some scholars compared to the conservative BJP. The BJP became the top party in 1996, but they could not form a stable government with an opposition including the INC (I) (the I stood for Indira after a split, they later dropped the label). The two main parties began to form alliances: in 1998, the BJP formed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INC formed the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for the 2004 race, where Manmohan Singh of the latter became PM. They scored a big win in 2009, but were swept aside by the BJP’s Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, in 2014, in a massive landslide. Modi has been associated with developmentalism first, a break from previous BJP figures, but also still criticised for formenting communal tension as well as democratic backsliding and weaponisation of the state. In 2019, the BJP won another landslide: with 303 seats compared to 52 for the INC, who are not even big enough to be an official opposition. The INC have broadened their alliance to include more regionalist and left-wing parties, among others, forming the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). While INDIA was expected to win more seats than the UPA did in 2019, given Modi’s intense popularity, especially amongst the Hindu minority, and with certain elements making the playing field unbalanced, it was considered very likely the NDA will win. With the election in phases due to the size of the country, this phase was for Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Chandigarh, and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. In a shock, election results noted that the BJP would lose its overall majority, while INDIA made gains; however, the NDA still had a majority, meaning Modi was still Prime Minister. Critics say that Modi was too ambitious and arrogant, with a slogan aiming for four hundred seats, this election also came at a difficult economic time.
On the same day, the Indian state of Odisha held the fourth phase of its state election. Odisha had its first election in independent India in 1952, and in its early years ran by the INC, although they were never quite as hegemonic here as on the national level and lost power in 1967. In 1990, the Janata Dal (JD, People’s Party), an important national party won power under Biju Patnaik in a crushing landslide of the INC. However, in 1995, the INC got revenge, winning a majority. Patnaik died in 1997, and his son Naveen Patnaik soon split from the JD, forming the Biju Janata Dal (BJD, Biju People’s Party). The BJD won the most seats in 2000, with the BJP in second and INC third, and Naveen Patnaik became Chief Minister. He has served in this role since 2000, with wins in 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019. In 2019, the BJD won 112 seats, the BJP 23, the INC nine and others two. The BJP have targeted states they have no history of governing in as they look to increase their support nationwide, but Patnaik would not go down without a fight. With the election held in phases, this phase covered 42 constituencies. In the end, it was a victory for the BJP, who won 78 seats to the BJD’s 51, helped by first-past-the-post despite having less seats. It is unclear who will become Chief Minister as a result, but Manmohan Samal is the BJP leader in the state.
On the same date, Iceland held its presidential election. Icelandic parliamentary tradition dates back to 930 when the Icelandic Commonwealth was created, but this fell to Norway in 1262. Norway joined Denmark and Sweden in the Kalmar Union in 1397, but Sweden left in 1523, creating Denmark-Norway. During the Napoleonic Wars, the Treaty of Kiel was signed in 1814 which exchanged Norway to the Swedish King in return for Swedish Pomerania. However, Iceland remained part of the Danish ‘unitary state’. That said, Iceland would hold its first elections in 1844 and nationalism would grow. After they lost territory to Prussia and Austria in 1864, the ‘whole state’ died but Iceland remained Danish. However, Iceland won its first constitution in 1874, with more powers. At the turn of the century, political parties began to emerge. In 1918, Denmark and Iceland signed an Act of Union where Iceland recieved a form of independence similar to that of Canada (at the time), while still being part of the Danish realm. When Germany invaded and occupied Denmark in World War II, Iceland declared a form of temporary independence, with the veteran politician Sveinn Björnsson as regent. The country was then invaded and occupied by the United Kingdom. In 1943, the Act of Union with Denmark expired as it was signed for 25 years. Therefore, a referendum was held, with abolition supported by 99.5% and a republican constitution by 98.5%. Sveinn was elected president by the new legislature, and was then elected unopposed in a direct election 1945. Four parties won seats in the first post-independence parliamentary election: the conservative Independence Party, the agrarian-centrist Progressive Party, the communist People’s Unity Party – Socialist Party and the centre-left Social Democratic Party. Sveinn was re-elected unopposed again in 1949. However, he died in 1952. The Social Democrat Ásgeir Ásgeirsson, a pre-independence Prime Minister was elected President in the first contested direct election. He was re-elected unopposed in 1956, 1960, and 1964. The People’s Unity Party was replaced by the People’s Alliance in a 1956 merger. Ásgeir decided to retire in 1968. The academic Kristján Eldjárn was elected president. He was re-elected unopposed in 1972 and 1976. In the close 1980 election, Vigdís Finnbogadóttir, a well-known figure in the theatre industry, was elected president. In 1984 she was re-elected unopposed, in 1988 faced only token opposition and in 1992 re-elected unopposed again. In 1996, she decided to step down, and Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson was elected, a former Minister of Finance from the People’s Alliance. The People’s Alliance merged with the Social Democratic Party and others in 1998 to form the Social Democratic Alliance. Those that opposed this formed the Left-Green Alliance. Ólafur was re-elected unopposed in 2000, faced token opposition in 2004, was re-elected unopposed again in 2008, but faced a closer race in 2012. The journalist Thóra Arnórsdottir ran, believing Ólafur took too active a role, but was defeated. In 2013, the Pirate Party won seats for the first time. The pirate politics movement is active in most countries, but has only found success in a few. It is based on greater personal freedoms and a more direct democracy. Ólafur did not run in 2016. The historian Guðni Th. Jóhanesson (Guðni Thorlacius Jóhanesson) was elected in a competitive race. The liberal Viðreisn (Revival) won seats for the first time in that year’s election. 2017 added the conservative Centre Party and People’s Party, which is socially conservative but economically populist. Guðni was re-elected easily in 2020 against only token opposition. In 2021, the latest parliamentary election was held: Independence won sixteen seats, the Progressives thirteen, the Left-Green Movement eight, the Social Democratic, People’s, and Pirate parties on six each, Viðreisn on five and the Centre Party on three. Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir of the Left-Green Alliance continued, as did the coalition with the Independence and Progressive parties. However, she stepped down in 2024 to run for president and the Independence Party leader Bjarni Benediktsson became PM for the second time (but with the same three parties). Guðni is not running this time, with polls suggesting Katrín as one of three main candidates alongside businesswoman Halla Tómasdóttir and professor Halla Hrund Logadóttir. The victor in the race was Halla Tómasdóttir, who got 34.2% of the vote compared to 25.2% for Katrín and 15.7% for Halla Hrund Logadóttir.
On 2 June, the Serbian city of Belgrade held its City Assembly election. In 1459, Serbia was conquered by the Ottoman Empire, but in the early nineteenth century, it won independence as the Principality of Serbia, which in 1882 became the Kingdom of Serbia. Serbia was defeated and occupied by Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria in 1915, but were on the winning side and was liberated in 1918. Serbia, Montenegro, and the new State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs (Slavic parts of the crumbling Austria-Hungary) decided to merge into a Kingdom of Serbs, Croats, and Slovenes, colloquially (and after 1929 officially) the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. In World War II, Yugoslavia signed an agreement with the Axis, but this led to protests and a pro-British coup. After this, the Axis invaded and divided the territory, with Serbia under German occupation. The royal government in exile in British Kenya and communists decided to resist together, but power shifted to the communists after the war. The interim state was called Democratic Federal Yugoslavia, with the Federal People’s Republic of Yugoslavia set up after victory in 1945. All parties had to be part of the People’s Front of Yugoslavia (NFJ), dominated by Josip Broz Tito’s Communist Party of Yugoslavia (KPJ). The Constitution of 1946 divided Yugoslavia into six ‘People’s Republics’: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia. Serbia also had an Autonomous Province of Vojvodina and an Autonomous Region of Kosovo. In Serbia, the Communist Party of Serbia (KPS) was the KPJ affiliate. The KPJ fell out with the Soviet Union, and in 1952 rebranded to the League of Communists of Yugoslavia (SKJ) (in Serbia, the League of Communists of Serbia (SKS)), the NFJ also became the Socialist Alliance of Working People (SSRNJ). A new constitution in 1963 renamed the People’s Republics to Socialist Republics, Kosovo was upgraded to a Socialist Autonomous Region, a title also given to Vojvodina. Serbia was the centre of Yugoslavia at this time, with Belgrade as its capital. Tito died in 1980, and this allowed national tensions to spread. Tito was a dominant figure, but different politicians could now be more ambitious. In Serbia, Slobodan Milošević became leader of the Belgrade SKS in 1984 and would quickly rise to popularity due to a crusade against the authorities in Kosovo, which was ethnically Albanian. He wanted to reduce Kosovo’s autonomy and consolidate it as part of Serbia. Milošević’s attempts to centralise power also applied to Yugoslavia as a whole, but most countries had no interest in this, with the Slovene, Croatian, Bosnian and Macedonian delegations walking out of the 1990 congress, effectively ending the SKJ. In 1990, a referendum was held, with a new multiparty constitution adopted with 97.3% support, with the Socialist Republic of Serbia becoming the Republic of Serbia. The SKS became the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and in 1990 Milošević was re-elected President in a multiparty election. Yugoslavia still existed, but in 1990 Slovenia voted for independence, followed by Croatia and Macedonia in 1991 and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992. Thus, only Serbia and Montenegro remained. Yugoslav and Serbian elections persisted, with the SPS in alliance with the far-right Serbian Radical Party (SRS). In 1992, a referendum for early Serbian elections passed, but a combination of media bias and rigging ensured Milošević’s re-election as President. He continued as President of Serbia until 1997, when he became President of Yugoslavia. Constitutional amendments allowed for direct elections to that office in 2000. By then, Milošević was considered an autocrat and war criminal, failed wars to prevent the independence of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina in particular led to NATO bombing Yugoslavia. Meanwhile, Kosovo had been placed under UN administration and the Serbian authorities expelled. In 2000, the Democratic Opposition of Serbia party candidate Vojislav Koštunica defeated Milošević. At first he refused to give up power, but mass protests finally forced him out. This led to constitutional change: in 2003 the Federation was renamed Serbia and Montenegro, in 2006 Montenegro declared independence leading to Serbia itself now being an independent state. In its last elections in the fedearion in 2004, Serbia elected Boris Tadić from the centre-left Democratic Party, who defeated the SRS candidate Tomislav Nikolić in a competitive runoff. Tadić defeated Nikolić in a close rematch in 2008. Also in 2008, Kosovo declared independence, though Serbia refused to recognise this. About half of the countries in the world recognise Kosovo: mostly the Western and Western-aligned countries. After this, Nikolić abandoned the SRS, creating the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Finally, under the Let’s Get Serbia Moving coalition, he defeated Tadić in 2012 (under the Choice for a Better Life) banner. In 2014, the SNS coalition, now renamed Future We Believe In, won a majority in parliament, and Aleksandar Vučić became PM. In Belgrade, the coalition won a majority as well, with Siniša Mali as Mayor. In 2016, the SNS coalition (now ‘Serbia Is Winning’) won a reduced majority in parliamentary elections. In presidential elections in 2017, the full stops of the media and state were used to ensure the victory of Vučić, leading to large protests. The SNS also won the 2018 Belgrade election, allowing Zoran Radojičić to become Mayor. In 2020, the opposition boycotted parliamentary elections, allowing the SNS coalition For Our Children to win easily. Presidential elections, as well as snap parliamentary elections were held in 2022 after negotiations between the government and opposition. Vučić was easily re-elected President, but his Together We Can Do Everything coalition lost his majority. In Belgrade, city elections were held: Together We Can Do Everything lost their majority, but Aleksandar Šapić became Mayor. Snap parliamentary elections were held in 2023. The SNS coalition, Serbia Must Not Stop, narrowly won its majority back, with the opposition alliance, Serbia Against Violence (SPN), making a strong showing as well. Belgrade also held snap elections. Belgrade Must Not Stop won 49 seats, with SPN on 43, the right-wing National Democratic Alternative (NADA, meaning hope) on seven, another right-wing party, We–The Voice from the People (MI-GIN) on six, and an alliance led by the SPS on five. As MI-GIN did not pick a side, neither the government (SNS/SPS) or opposition (SPN/NADA) had enough seats. Instead of a mayor, a Temporary Council was set up, with Šapić as its President. Mass protests also broke out at accusations of fraud, leading to these new elections. Šapić is the face of the SNS coalition, Belgrade Tomorrow. Meanwhile, the SPN parties have used the name We Choose Belgrade!, and Dobrica Veselinović of the Green–Left Front is their main candidate. Though the SNS has tried to consolidate power, the opposition has not gone down without a fight, with mass protests in Belgrade a very common sight in recent years. Results showed a majority for Belgrade Tomorrow, with the Kreni-Proemi anti-corruption party overtaking We Choose Belgrade! as the main opposition. The government is helped by a strong performance from the right-wing We – Power of the People (MI-SN), meaning an SNS-led Belgrade should be simple enough.
On 2 June, Mexico also held its general election, electing its President and both legislative chambers. The country was first conquered by Spain in the sixteenth century, with the Mexican War of Independence fought and won from 1810 to 1821. The First Mexican Empire did not last long due to Emperor Agustín de Iturbe trying to consolidate power in what was supposed to be a constitutional monarchy. Thus, the First Mexican Republic was founded in 1824, but in 1835 conservatives managed to centralise the hitherto federal country, forming the Centralist Republic of Mexico. Instability did not end with this, and areas wanted secession, including Texas, leading to the Mexican–American War and the end of the Centralist Republic. The old constitution was restored with the Second Federal Republic in 1846, but the conservatives soon re-asserted power. The conservative dictatorship was removed in the 1854 Revolution of Ayutla, and a new liberal constitution was written. This led to a conservative coup and two regimes in Mexico and a civil war known as the Reform War, won by the American-backed liberals. However, the conservatives, supported by France, did not give up, and when France invaded Mexico in 1861 ostentibly under war debts, they were supported by the conservatives, who established the Second Mexican Empire in 1863 after a fraudulent referendum where 100.0% voted in favour. However, after the US’s own civil war ended, France began to baulk, and this left the emperor a sitting duck. The Restored Republic was established in 1867. A coup known as the Plan of Tuxtepec was enacted in 1876 when President Lerdo de Tejada tried to change the law to run again. However, the general that replaced him, Porfirio Díaz, himself acted as a dictator, with this period known as the Profiriato (Porfiriate). He kept on being re-elected in fraudulent votes, with the final occasion happening in 1910, intended to be a free election before Díaz balked due to the popularity of opposition leader Francisco I. Madero (Francisco Ignacio Madero). The coup that year to remove him, finalised in 1911 with the beginning of fighting, was the first stage in the Mexican Revolution, which lasted a decade. Madero was elected President in a landslide, but a counter-revolutionary coup known as the Ten Tragic Days removed him in 1913. Revolutionary “constitutionalists” won power back in 1914, and Venustiano Carranza became President under a new constitution in 1917. However, he did not put forward all the reforms that were demanded, and was assassinated in 1920 during a feud over who would succeed him. The new government would eventually set up a stable civil state, ending the era of military coups, under the National Revolutionary Party (PRN), then the Party of the Mexican Revolution (PRM) and finally in 1946 the name Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) was set up. However, the consolidation of power also led to de facto one-party rule, with the opposition not viable. That said, the “Sexenio” rule limited presidents to one six-year term: one may not have a second term even if they held the role in a caretaker or other basis, and this was respected by each PRI leader. This also meant it had an unclear ideology, instead being based on the personality of the presidents. The main opposition party was the National Action Party (PAN). In 1988, the election was more viable, with Carlos Salinas de Gortari winning just 50.7% of the vote. The PAN candidate came third with a new left-wing National Democratic Front (FDN) running the PRI dissident Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas. Despite probable fraud and protests, Salinas was allowed to rule and the PRI and PAN voted to burn the ballots. However, the price was the end of the PRI hegemony and independent elections from 1994 on. These were still won by the PRI easily over the PAN and FDN candidates, but in 2000 the PAN’s Alliance for Change candidate Vicente Fox beat the PRI and the PRD’s Alliance for Mexico candidates. In 2006, the PAN’s Felipe Calderón narrowly defeated the PRD-led Coalition for the Good of All (CBT) candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, while Roberto Madrazo of the PRI, now using the Alliance for Mexico coalition name was in a still decent third. However, in 2012, the PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto, using the Commitment to Mexico (CpM) candidate name defeated the PRD-led Progressive Movement candidate López Obrador and the PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota. López Obrador later quit the PRD and formed his own party, Morena (which both stands for National Regeneration Movement and refers to the Virgin of Guadalupe, a Mexican title associated with Mary, the mother of Jesus due to apparitions by a Mexican peasant in the sixteenth century), ending the three-party system. They formed the Juntos Haremos Historia (Together We Will Make History) coalition alongside the left-wing Labor Party (PT) and the conservative Social Encounter Party (PES). Meanwhile, the PAN and PRD ran a common candidate, the PAN’s Ricardo Anaya, alongside the centre-left Citizens’ Movement under the Por México al Frente (For Mexico to the Front) coalition, and the PRI still ran a coalition called Todos por México (Everyone for Mexico) with two small parties, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the New Alliance Party (PNA) and the candidate José Antonio Meade. López Obrador won easily with 54.7% of the vote, while Anaya won 22.9% and Meade won 16.9%. In the Senate, Juntos Haremos Historia won 69 seats, a majority, with 55 seats for Morena, eight for the PES, and six for the PT. Por México al Frente took 38, with 23 for the PAN, eight for the PRD, who had a very bad performance and seem listless without López Obrador, and seven for the Citizens’ Movement. Todos por México won 21 seats, fourteen for the PRI, six for the PVEM and one for the PRI. In the lower house, a majority for Juntos Haremos Historia with 308 seats (191 for Morena, 61 for the PT and 56 for the PES). Por México al Frente took 129 (81 for the PAN, 27 for the Citizens’ Movement, and 21 for the PRD), with Todos por México taking 63 (45 for the PRI, sixteen for the PVEM, and two for the PNA). A leftist who is popular and seen as performing well, López Obrador formed a new coalition, Juntos Haremos Historia (Together We Make History) with the PT and PVEM, which won another majority in 2021 midterm elections with 278 seats: 198 for Morena, 43 for the PVEM, and 37 for the PT. Meanwhile, the PAN, PRI, and PRD, previously the three main protagonists of Mexican politics, had an alliance together called Va por México (Goes for Mexico). They won 199 seats: 114 for PAN, seventy for the PRI, and fifteen for the PRD. The Citizens’ Movement won 25 seats alone, while the PES, which was dissolved for a small vote total in 2018 and refounded as the Solidarity Encounter Party (also PES) lost their seats. The PNA met the same fate due to their vote share and did not run again. The Morena-PVEM-PT coalition was renewed this time, under the new name Sigamos Haciendo Historia (SHH, Let’s Keep Making History), and Mexico City Head of Government Claudia Sheinbaum was named their candidate. The PAN-PRI-PRD coalition, Fuerza y Corazón por México (FCM, Strength and Heart for Mexico) nominated Xóchitl Gálvez, a national Senator who is a member of none of the three parties. Meanwhile, deputy Jorge Máynez runs for the Citizens’ Movement. Mexico was expected to have its first female President with the left-wing continuning its impressive streak of victories with Sheinbaum having a majority in polls, Gálvez about twenty points behind and Máynez a further twenty behind. If anything, Sheinbaum overperformed polls and was elected easily, with Gálvez in second and Máynez third.
From 6 to 9 June, the European Union will hold elections to the European Parliament, a legislative body. Europe had traditionally been perpetually at some war or other, and with industrialisation this only advanced with World War I and World War II, both with the intense rivalry between Germany and France as a factor. After the Allied side, with the United States, Soviet Union, France, United Kingdom and China as its most important parts won, the dynamic of the world changed. France was initially defeated by Germany and then liberated, while the UK lost much of its financial clout, thus ending the European dominance. Instead, two superpowers, the US and Soviet Union, would form and be constantly at loggerheads, and with countries relying on two anti-imperial powers, as well as the growth of nationalism in the Third World, led to the end of the empires too. The Schuman Declaration, a plan to economically integrate West Germany and France to end the possibility of war, led to the Treaty of Paris being signed by those two countries as well as Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, forming the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). A consultative assembly with no elections (members being drawn from the national parliaments), called the Consultative Assembly of the ECSC was formed. It became a joint assembly of the ESCS and the new European Economic Community (EEC) and Euratom in 1958, renamed the European Parliamentary Assembly and then in 1962 the European Parliament. The three communites merged anyway into the European Community (EC) in 1967. Direct elections happened for the first time in 1979, by which time Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom had joined. Seats would be assigned by nation, but parties would organise on an ideological basis: for instancecentre-left parties would form the Party of European Socialists (PES): the PES group, known as the Socialist Group then consisted of the Belgian Socialist parties (Flemish and Walloon), the Danish (and Greenlandic) Social Democrats, the French Socialist Party and allies, and so on for other countries. The other “Europarties” were the European People’s Party (EPP), formed by Christian democrats and other moderate conservatives, while the European Democrats were a rival conservative group. The “Communists and Allies” was fourth, with the European Liberals and Democrats (ELD) fifth for liberal parties, the “European Progressive Democrats” a somewhat odd group consisting mostly of parties of power rather than ideologists (the Gaulist Rally for the Republic (RPR) and Fianna Fáil, the populist Irish party), with a Technical Group of Independents (CDI) formed among other parties, with some not even joining that, sitting as “Non-Inscrits”. That was the order of the parties in size. The Socialists’ main power came from West Germany, where the Social Democratic Party (SPD) did well, the French Socialist Party and the British Labour Party. Meanwhile, the EPP saw the West German Union and Italian Christian Democracy make up the bulk. The European Democrats were dominated by the British Conservative Party, while the Italian and French communist parties dominated the communist group, with the Union for French Democracy (UDF) the big ELD party. Elections would be held every five years, with the next in 1984, by which time Greece had been added. Again, the Socialists were the largest group, thanks to the SPD, British Labour, and French Socialists. The EPP were second thanks to the Union and Christian Democracy, while the European Democrats were third because of the British Conservatives. The Italians propped up the Communist group, while the Liberals still saw the UDF as its main party. The Progressive Democrats became the European Democratic Alliance (EDA), still based on the RPR and Fianna Fáil, while a Rainbow Group of Greens and other mostly non-communist leftists was formed, as was the European Right group based on the far-right in France (the National Front) and Italy (the Italian Social Movement or MSI). The rest were Non-Inscrits. Portugal and Spain joined in time for the next election in 1989. Again the Socialists were largest, with big contributions from British Labour, the SPD, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and the French Socialists. The main EPP parties were again the Union and the Christian Democracy, while the new Liberal and Democratic Reformist group (LDR) saw the UDF joined by the Portuguese Social Democratic Party (PSD) as the main parties (hence the addition of the Reformist mantra for the non-liberal PSD). The European Democrats were still nearly all British Conservatives, while the EDA marriage of the RPR and Fianna Fáil continued. A Green group was formed for the first time, while the communist group, renamed European United Left (EUL) was dominated by the Italian communists due to the exit of the French. The Right lost the MSI, allowing it to be dominated by the National Front and the West German party The Republicans. A rival communist group set up by the French Communist Party was called Left Unity. The Rainbow Group now mostly consisted of regionalist parties, and the rest such as the MSI were Non-Inscrits. In 1992, the Maastricht Treaty was signed, forming the European Union (EU). This gave Parliament more power over the European Commission. The next election was in 1994, after the reunification of Germany. The PES group was the largest thanks to British Labour and the German SPD, while the German Union and Spanish People’s Party were the main drivers of the EPP. The European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party (ELDR) group was much smaller than the big two, and more disparate, while the EUL saw the Spanish United Left as the largest party. Forza Italia formed their own group, Forza Europa, while the RPR-Fianna Fáil alliance (the EDA) continued. The German Greens dominated the Green group, while the European Radical Alliance (ERA), led by the Movement of Radicals of the Left (MRG), a French party was formed, while UDF splinters led the Eurosceptic Europe of Nations group, and others sat as Non-Inscrits. In 1999, after allegations of corruption against Commission President Jacques Santer (EPP), the Parliament forced it out, often with national governments pressuring MEPs. Romano Prodi (ELDR) replaced him. By 1999, Austria, Finland, and Sweden had joined. The EPP became the largest group for the first time, with the German Union, British Conservatives, People’s Party and Forza Italia as the largest forces. PES saw the SPD, British Labour and PSOE as the main parties, while the ELDR was more disparate (and again a minor party). The Greens/EFA was formed, the EFA standing for European Free Alliance, a convergence of greens and regionalists, and again rather disparate. The new European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL) was formed and disparate. The Union for Europe of the Nations (UEN), a right-wing Eurosceptic group, consisted of the Rally for France (RPF) party, the National Alliance/Segni Pact alliance in Italy, and Fianna Fáil, while the Eurosceptic Indpendence/Democracy was also formed, with some Non-Inscrits. By 2004, the Cold War was long over and new countries had joined: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Also, Gibraltar, an overseas territory of the UK, voted for the first time. The European People’s Party/European Democrats group remained the largest, thanks to the German Union, British Conservatives and Spanish People’s Party. PES were second thanks to the French Socialists, PSOE and SPD, while the ELDR improved. The Greens-EFA and GUE/NGL were next, while the Independence/Democracy group was powered by the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the League of Polish Families (LPR). In the UEN, the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) joined the National Alliance as the main party, while others sat as Non-Inscrits. As the EPP had won, the Portuguese EPP figure José Durão Barroso became Commission President, thus showing the importance of the elections by now, while several of his proposed Commissioners were rejected by the body. The next election was in 2009, by which time Bulgaria and Romania had joined. The EPP made gains from PES, with the German Union, the Italian People of Liberty (PdL), the Polish Civic Platform (PO), the Spanish People’s Party and the French Union for a Popular Movement (UPM) the main forces. The SPD, Italian Democratic Party and PSOE were the main PES parties, with the renamed Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in third. The German Greens were the largest Green/EFA party, with the GUE/NGL in fifth. Lega Nord now dominated the UEN, with UKIP dominating Independence/Democracy and the rest as ‘others’. Barroso was re-elected. The EU reached its greatest extent before the 2014 election, with the admission of Croatia. The EPP won the most seats due to the German Union, the UMP and the Civic Platform, making Jean-Claude Juncker Commission President. Meanwhile, the Italian Democrats, SPD and British Labour led the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group. The British Conservatives and PiS formed the Europe of Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which overtook ALDE into third. The other groups were the GUE/NGL, the Greens/EFA (helped by the German Greens immensely), the Eurosceptic Europe of Freedom and Democracy (EFD), dominated by UKIP. The most recent election was in 2019. The EPP won 182 seats, and German former Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen became President. The German Union were the most important force, brining in 29 seats. The S&D group won 154, with twenty from the PSOE. ALDE became Renew Europe, which won 108 seats thanks to the French government party and its allies bringing in 21 seats. The Greens/EFA won 74, 21 of which were from the German Greens. Identity and Democracy, the new hard right group, took 73, 28 of which were from Lega and 22 from the National Rally (rebranded National Front). The ECR took 62, 26 of which were from PiS and its allies. The GUE/NGL was on 41 with 57 Non-Inscrits. In 2020, the United Kingdom left the EU. Von der Leyen is the main EPP candidate this time, with Nicolas Schmit, a Luxembourgish Commissioner, representing PES. European elections are often voted for as second-order elections, seen as an opportunity to give governments a message, rather than voting for a European Parliament and indirectly a Commission. Polls suggest the EPP will be largest again, without a majority.
On 7 June, Ireland held local elections. Ireland’s independence began after the 1918 election, when the Sinn Féin party (Ourselves) won most of the seats in Ireland in the British election, and refused to sit in London, instead making a revolutionary assembly in Dublin. An agreement with the UK, the Anglo-Irish Treaty was signed, creating the Irish Free State, a dominion of the British Empire. This led to a division in Sinn Féin over the treaty and a civil war, won by the side in favour, who then split to form the party Cumann na nGaedheal (Society of the Gaels). Sinn Féin continued to boycott the parliament, but many disagreed with this strategy, forming Fianna Fáil (Soldiers of Destiny), who won power and republicanised the country from within. Meanwhile, Cumann na nGaedheal merged with other groups to form Fine Gael (Family of the Irish). Fianna Fáil were always the largest party in Ireland, and could often command a majority, while Fine Gael were often forced into coalition with the smaller Labour Party. Independents were often also a major force, helping Fianna Fáil when they missed out. This system basically survived up until the 2007 election, but the 2007-2011 term was disastrous for Fianna Fáil. In that election, they fell to third behind Fine Gael and Labour. In the interim, Sinn Féin had moved to Marxism, and a splinter, Provisional Sinn Féin was formed. The original group changed their name, so the Provisionals then assumed the name Sinn Féin, which became a fourth party. A Fine Gael-Labour coalition was formed under Enda Kenny, but this destroyed the Labour Party who had to agree to harsh austerity measures. In 2016, Fine Gael lost seats and had to rely on Fianna Fáil to prop them up, while Sinn Féin came third. In 2020, there was an effective three-way tie between the three biggest parties: Fianna Fáil won 38 seats, Sinn Féin 37, and Fine Gael 35. The environmentalist Green Party won twelve seats, Labour and a new centre-left rival the Social Democrats six, the left-wing Solidarity-PBP alliance (PBP meaning People Before Profit) five, the conservative Sinn Féin splinter Aontú (Unity) and left-wing Independents4Change (I4C) one each, with nineteen independents chosen. A coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Greens was announced. Under an agreement, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin became Taoiseach (prime minister, literally Chief) and Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar became Tánaiste (deputy PM, literally heir to the chief), with the understanding that they would swap in 2022, which duly happened. Varadkar stepped down in 2024 as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, replaced by Further Education Minister Simon Harris. The changes to the national landscape are less seen at local level: in 2019, Fianna Fáil won 279 seats, Fine Gael 255, Sinn Féin 81, Labour 57, the Greens 49, the Social Democrats nineteen, People Before Profit seven, Solidarity four, Aontú and I4C three each, a number of smaller parties one, and independents 185. However, it is expected Sinn Féin will do much better this time, in a three-way fight with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The main eyes will be on the European election, taken in tandem with the local results.
On 8 June, Italy holds local elections, with some polls on 9 June as well. Italy was on the Axis side in World War II under Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, and after their defeat reconstituted as a republic. During the Cold War, the Christian Democracy party dominated, keeping out its main rival, the communists. However, in 1994, they fell apart due to corruption and other issues. Meanwhile, the communists refounded as social democrats due to the fall of communism in Europe. To replace Christian Democracy, the media tycoon Silvio Berlusconi founded Forza Italia (Let’s Go Italy), which allied with the northern separatist, right-wing Lega Nord (Northern League) and others to win the election. A two-party system was set, with the Berlusconi-led right and the centre-left, which had a number of names but finish on the Democratic Party. In 2013, the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) emerged, which was considered Eurosceptic but in other ways quite left-wing (although in no way ‘red’). A Democratic government was formed, but in 2018, several things changed. The Democratic Party was demolished, while Forza Italia won less seats than the Lega (League), which dropped its commitment to northern independence for right-wing populism. The M5S was the largest sole party, and an M5S-Lega coalition was formed. Leading in the polls, Lega then pulled out, but the Democratic Party stepped in to save the government and stop them. Later, Democratic centrists split to form their own minor party, which denuded them of a majority. A government of all parties was formed under independent Mario Draghi, apart from Brothers of Italy (FdI), a post-fascist party and the third party in the right-wing coalition. Thus, FdI shot up in the polls. In 2022, the “centre-right coalition” won the election with 237 seats (119 for FdI, 66 for the Lega, 45 for Forza Italia and seven for the small Us Moderates) while the centre-left won just 84 and the M5S 52. Giorgia Meloni of FdI became Prime Minister. This has also moved M5S and the Democrats into closer cooperation: in several areas, they are running together. Unlike Ireland, where unified local elections are held, these are staggered held in some parts of the country, and more focus is on the EU race, but these election results are important to the parties as well.
On the same date, Malta will hold local elections. Malta was captured by Napoleon in the French Revolutionary Wars, but when locals revolted, the UK, Naples, and Sicily sent aid. After this, they requested British protection, which was accepted, and it formally joined the British Empire in the 1814 Treaty of Paris. After this, democracy was introduced slowly. At first a government was appointed, but this changed with an 1849 election, where a minority of members were elected. As time went on the pro-Italian Anti-Reform Party, which was pretty anti-British, became the most powerful. Elections became more democratic in 1888, although there were still a few members reserved for certain classes like nobility. In 1904, these were abolished, although all the members resigned in protest after being elected, and in general under this Chamberlain Constitution there was often a tetchiness about elections, with members often resigning straight after being elected to protest or seats being either elected unopposed or completely unfilled. A new system came in 1921, along with self-government. The main parties were the pro-Italian Maltese Political Union (UPM) and Democratic Nationalist Party (PDN, this was the renamed Anti-Reform Party), the pro-British Constitutional Party and the left-wing Labour Party. The UPM and PDN soon merged into the Nationalist Party (PN), which fought elections mostly with the Constitutional Party, with Labour a third force who would often back up the Constitutionals. In 1945, Labour were the only force: the Constitutionals lost their long-time leader and main financial backer, while the Nationalists were forced into exile due to their traditional association with Italy, a wartime enemy. However, the Nationalists returned (as did the Constitutionals, although this was never a major party again). The third party at this time was the Workers Party, a pro-British party that split from Labour, accusing it of being infiltrated by communists, although this soon disappeared. In 1964, Malta had a referendum on independence, this passed with 54.5% support (in 1956, a referendum to integrate it as a full part of the UK passed with 77.0% support, but this never happened due to lack of support in the UK). In the post-independence era, Malta has remained a perfect two-party system, with Labour and the PN ever since, with a partial exception in 2017. The first election after independence was in 1966, the PN won: they and Labour were the only two parties. Labour won in 1971, and under Dom Mintoff, Malta became a republic in 1974. They won further elections in 1976 and 1981, but lost to the PN in 1987 by one seat. Under Eddie Fenech Adami, the PN won in 1992, lost in 1996 to Labour, but won again in 1998 and 2003: after Fenech Adami left they won again in 2008. In 2013, they lost to the Labour Party of Joseph Muscat, who won again in 2017. That year, Labour ran against a Forza Nazzjonali (National Force) of the PN and the Democratic Party, a liberal Labour split. In 2017, an investigative journalist was murdered, this led to periodic protests against Muscat, who was said to be linked some way due to his own apparent links to organised crime. In 2019, when people were arrested, Muscat granted them pardons and then announced he would resign: this happened in 2020 when Robert Abela (Muscat’s legal advisor) defeated favourite, Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne in a leadership contest. By 2022, the Forza Nazzjonali had broken up: Labour won that race 44-35. Local elections used to be held on a staggered basis, but in 2019 the first (and most recent) unified elections were held. Labour won 270 seats, the PN 190, with a localist party called Għarb First on two and independents on two. Polling data has mostly focused around the European elections, but if it is similar, Labour still lead the PN in polls. There has been greater activity from minor parties in the EU race, but Labour and the PN are still the only parties contesting a majority of seats in local councils.
On 9 June, South Ossetia will hold parliamentary elections. Ossetians are believed to have arrived in Georgia as refugees from the Mongol Empire in the thirteenth century, after their kingdom, Alania, was conquered. The Georgian Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti was however annexed by Russia in 1801 as part of the Caucuses Viceroyalty, which also included modern-day Armenia, Azerbaijan, and parts of Russia. After the February Revolution and the creation of a liberal Provisional Government, a Special Transcaucasian Committee was set up, while after the October Revolution which brought communists to power, independence was declared by the Transcaucasian Commissariat, which formed the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic. However, the nationalities could not find unity, and the Democratic Republic of Georgia declared independence. Georgia was at first a German protectorate, but after Germany’s defeat in World War I, it was placed under British occupation. Still, democratic government was allowed, won by social democrats. There was no real appetite for communism in the country, and after Russia failed to begin a revolution, the Treaty of Moscow was signed in 1920, with Russia recognising Georgian independence in exchange for the removal of the foreign troops. In 1921, Georgia was annexed by Russia, setting up a Georgian Socialist Soviet Repubic and in 1922 it became part of the Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic with Azerbaijan and Armenia. In 1936, this was dissolved with the Georgian SSR as its own republic. Part of Georgia was the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast. The USSR was a one-party state led by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), and in Georgia, the Communist Party of Georgia (SKP). However, under Mikhail Gorbachev, greater freedoms were allowed, leading to different nationalities siezing the chance to break free of the system. As part of reforms, multiparty elections were allowed in 1990: the nationalist Round Table—Free Georgia party defeated the SKP. Meanwhile, South Ossetians resisted becoming part of Georgia. In Soviet times, they did not really care which republic they were part of, but were worried what would happen if they were part of an independent, nationalist Georgia. Meanwhile, nationalists in Tbilisi began to ban South Ossetian nationalist parties. South Ossetia held its own election, but this was called illegitimate by Georgia who then abolished South Ossetia’s autonomous status and sent in the military. In 1991, Georgia voted with 99.5% support to declare independence. This was not recognised by the Soviet Union, but it collapsed at the end of the year anyway. Georgia’s own government was chaotic due to a civil war caused by a coup, stopping them from taking back South Ossetia. It was also reported that Russia, itself newly independent helped the rebels. In 1992, South Ossetia had a two-question referendum: 99.9% voted in favour of independence, and also 99.9% voted in favour of union with Russia. This has never been recognised internationally. In 1992, Eduard Shevardnadze, a former Soviet Foreign Minister, became leader of the country at the behest of the leaders of the coup. In 1995 and 2000 he was re-elected President, but departed in 2004 for Mikheil Saakashvili amidst protests known as the Rose Revolution. South Ossetia would hold its own elections, with presidential votes every five years. Saakashvili attempted to bring South Ossetia back into Georgian control (which it is officially recognised as being part of). In the 2006 South Ossetian election, an alternative vote was held from those who opposed President Eduard Kokoity and voted for negotiations with Georgia (of course, this ‘alternative, free’ election was held in parts controlled by Georgia). A separate President, Dmitry Sanakoyev was elected, who was in 2007 named head of a temporary South Ossetia Administration by Georgia, something opposed by Russia. Russia had begun to support separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another part of Georgia controlled by secessionists. In 2008, Russia formally recognised these countries after a military incursion into the area following a diplomatic crisis. Since then, the conflict has been frozen. Georgia has been governed by the Georgian Dream party for the last decade, which at first was pro-EU and US, but has soured after that party has governed in a more autocratic manner, something which the EU is strongly opposed to. In South Ossetia, a semi-presidential system is in place. The Communist Party of South Ossetia (HIKP) won the majority of seats in 1994 and 1999. In 2001, incumbent President Lyudvig Chiborov was defeated by Eduard Kokoity, who also defeated the HIKP candidate Stanislav Kochiev. The pro-Kokoity Unity Party was set up, which defeated the communists in 2004 parliamentary elections: in 2006 Kokoity won 98.1% of the vote after some of the opposition joined the Georgian-backed elections which were won by Sanakoyev. Kokoity basically consolidated power. However, he was term-limited in 2011. Independent Alla Dzhioyeva defeated the Unity Party candidate Anatoliy Bibilov in 2011, on the same day a referendum gave Russian co-equal status with Ossetian as an official language. However, Unity sued to stop the result being official, saying Dzhioyeva had rigged it. Dzhioyeva was later hospitalised by police. In 2012, Leonid Tibilov defeated David Sanakoev in a runoff: both were independents with no Unity candidate running. 2014 parliamentary elections saw the emergence of a new party, United Ossetia, which was formed by Bibilov. Bibilov defeataed Tibilov in a 2017 election, while a referendum also changed the name to “Republic of South Ossetia-State of Alania”, mirroring the Russian republic North Ossetia-Alania. Six parties won seats at the last election, held in 2019: United Ossetia won fourteen, the People’s Party, close to Kokoity five, Nykhaz (Meeting), close to Tibilov four, another nationalist party, Unity of the People three, the HIKP two and independents six. The last presidential election was in 2022, when Bibilov was defeated by Nykhaz’s Alan Gagloev. Under Gagloev, independent Konstantin Dzhussoev has been Prime Minister, which is the top job responsible to parliament. There is expected to be much at stake for South Ossetia, although little will be decided at this election. Georgian Dream was pro-EU, but as time has gone on, it has grown more power-drunk. Thus, a “foreign agents law”, based on that of Russia, was massively criticised by the West and led to huge protests. As the South Ossetian government has struggled economically, and this region is less important than Abkhazia, if Georgian Dream wins in 2024 and continues down this path, they may well be happy to find some agreement to try and coax Georgia back into the pro-Russian sphere. Gagloev was always considered less pro-Russian than Bibilov, and more liberal (both are very relative). However, due to his minority governments’ struggles, he may face problems at this election, especially as he has liberalised the registration allowing more parties to contest. The problem is, though Russia would probably rather someone else running the “country”, they also want South Ossetia to succeed, especially as many South Ossetians have volunteered to fight in Ukraine. South Ossetia is recognised by five UN countries: Russia, its allies Nicaragua, Syria, and Venezuela, and the tiny Pacific country Nauru, for whom Russian money is probably the main motivation. However, despite international recognition and sanctions, the independence of South Ossetia is a fact for the people living there, who are also extremely pro-Russia due to that country’s role in the de facto situation.
On the same day, Bulgaria will hold its parliamentary election. Bulgaria as a state dates back to the seventh century, when the First Bulgarian Empire was formed, but was conquered by the Byzantine Empire in the eleventh. Byzantium’s own problems during the Crusades led to a successful revolt and the formation of a Second Bulgarian Empire in the twelfth century. However, this had fragmented by the fourteenth century following the end of the monarchy and a period of Mongol suzerainty. This allowed it to be easily taken over by the Ottoman Empire. During the Enlightenment, Bulgaria had its national awakening, and in the ninteenth century began to revolt. Russia declared war on the Ottoman Empire, hoping that to put a new Bulgarian state into its own sphere of influence, which happened with the Treaty of San Stefano. However, the other great powers worried that this state was too big and a threat, so a much smaller Bulgaria was instead created with the Treaty of Berlin. Elections were held in this new Principality. In 1908, the Principality of Bulgaria declared itself the independent Kingdom of Bulgaria. Bulgaria was on the Axis side in World War II, but in 1944 the Soviet Union declared war, with the communist-led guerilla, the Fatherland Front (OF) taking control. After this, Bulgaria was on the Allied side. Elections were held in 1945, won by the OF and Bulgarian Communist Party (BKP). Soon after this, Bulgaria abolished the monarchy and transitioned to a one-party state with the OF the only legal party, formed of the BKP and satellites. It was a puppet state of the Soviet Union. Despite not being part of the Soviet Union, Bulgaria was affected by the same urges as Georgia under Gorbachev. The new liberal atmosphere allowed them to fight for the end of communism. Thus, in 1989, Todor Zhivkov, leader of Bulgaria since 1954 was removed after protests. Zhivkov was replaced by Petar Mladenov, who began the transition to democracy, with elections in 1990. The BKP renamed itself the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Meanwhile, the opposition was based around the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS). The BSP won these elections, which were considered fair. In 1991, a new constitution was held, with the SDS winning the most seats, the BSP-led coalition, the Pre-Electoral Union, in second, and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS), based around the Turkish minority, as kingmaker. An SDS-DPS coalition was formed. However, in 1994, the BSP coalition, Democratic Left, won a majority. In 1997, the SDS led coalition, United Democratic Forces (ODS) defeated the Democratic Left, and Ivan Kostov became PM. In 2001, the National Movement Simeon II (NDSV), named after Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the last King of Bulgaria, won exactly half of the seats. They won most of their seats from the ODS, while the BSP-led Coalition for Bulgaria performed badly and the DPS was fourth. Saxe-Coburg-Gotha became PM. However, in 2005, the Coalition for Bulgaria won the most seats. The NDSV was second ahead of the DPS, while the ODS fell to fifth behind the hard right party Attack. A Coalition for Bulgaria-NDSV-DPS grand coalition was formed under the Socialist Sergey Stanishev. In 2009, a new party, GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) emerged. This was formed by the Mayor of Sofia Boyko Borisov. They just missed a majority. The Coalition for Bulgaria lost half their seats, with the DPS third. Attack came fourth, while the SDS-led Blue Coalition was fift. The NDSV lost all their seats and soon died out. Borisov became PM. In 2013, GERB lost seats, while the Coalition for Bulgaria made a resurgence. The DPS and Attack were the only others to win seats. The Coalition for Bulgaria and DPS put forward a technocratic government led by the independent Plamen Oresharski. However, after GERB won 2014 European elections, a new general election was held. GERB came first, while the BSP coalition, BSP-Left Bulgaria, lost ground and was just one seat ahead of the DPS. As well as Attack, four other parties won seats. He allied with two of these, the Reformist Bloc (which contained the SDS) and the conservative centre-left Alternative for Bulgarian Revival (ABV). After GERB lost the 2016 presidential election, Borisov called early elections in 2017. GERB gained seats but both of his coalition partners were booted out as the BSP for Bulgaria (BSPzB) coalition made gains. The other seats were won by the nationalist United Patriots (OP), which included Attack, DPS, and right-wing populist Volya Movement (Will Movement). Borisov formed a coalition with the United Patriots. The next election was scheduled for April 2021, and there is no way of explaining what happened next that is not convoluted and wordy. GERB formed an alliance with the SDS, GERB-SDS, which came first, but lost seats. Meanwhile, a new party, There Is Such A People (ITN) was a conservative, populist party formed by the folk singer Slavi Trifonov, and came second. BSPzB lost half their seats to come third. The DPS was fourth, with a new centre-right liberal party, Democratic Bulgaria (DB) fifth. Finally, Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! (ISMV) was the last party, a more left-wing anti-corruption party. Both the split-up United Patriots and the Volya Movement lost all seats. No coalition was formed, so new elections occurred in July. This time, ITN overtook GERB, while BSPzB slipped further and nearly got overtaken by DB. The DPS came fifth and ISMV was the last party. In fact, things didn’t change that much. ITN could not form a government either, so new elections were held again in November to coincide with presidential ones. President Rumen Radev, an independent supported by the BSPzB and ITN amongst others was re-elected pretty easily. A new centrist party, We Continue the Change (PP), emerged from two ministers who were in the technocratic caretaker government, and then came first in the election, defeating GERB-SDS. The DPS came third, ahead of the BSPzB, ITN, and DB who dropped off. Meanwhile, the far-right Revival entered parliament, while ISMV, renamed Stand Up.BG! We are coming! (IBG-NI) lost representation. Finally, PP, BSPzB, ITN, and DB formed a coalition under Kiril Petkov of PP. However, ITN left this in 2022 after the pro-European PP lifted the veto on North Macedonian accession talks (Bulgarian nationalism sees the Macedonian language as a Bulgarian dialect, and so opposes North Macedonia calling it ‘Macedonian’). This led to a fourth election. GERB-SDS came first, PP second, with the other parties being the DPS, Revival, BSPzB, and DB. Bulgarian Rise, a conservative nationalist party, was the last to win seats, while the ITN dropped out altogether, a dramatic reversal of fortunes. Again, no government could be built, so a fifth election was needed in 2023. Again GERB-SDS was the largest force, with 69 seats, beating an alliance between the PP and DB (PP-DB), who won 64. Revival took 37, the DPS 36, and BSPzB 23. ITN won eleven, while Bulgarian Rise dropped out. A PP-DB-GERB-SDS coalition was formed under Nikolay Denkov from PP. The agreement was that GERB’s Mariya Gabriel would “rotate” after nine months (similar to what happened in Ireland in 2022). Denkov duly resigned in 2024, but after this PP-DB and GERB-SDS failed to negotiate a renewed government under Gabriel. This led to new elections, which coincide with the European ones. A 4% threshold exists, and the same six parties are expected to cross it. GERB-SDS is likely to make modest gains, with PP-DB expected to lose seats and battling with Revival and the DPS for second. BSPzB, which is considered much more pro-Russian and Eurosceptic than most PES parties under longtime leader Korneliya Ninova, is expected to stay still in fifth, with ITN staying just ahead of the threshold in sixth. There is no guarantee that whatever happens it will solve the crisis and avoid a seventh election. Meanwhile, independent Dimitar Glavchev is running the caretaker administration.
On the same date, Romania will hold local elections. Romania has a long history, but for most of it two Romanian states existed, Moldavia and Wallachia. These were united in 1859, and the name Romania adopted in 1862. The first election was held in 1864. Romania joined World War I on the Entente side, which won, gaining territory in 1918 and adopting a more liberal constitution. However, a royal dictatorship was established in 1938 by King Carol II. During World War II, several concessions were forced to the Soviet Union, Hungary, and Bulgaria, forcing the abdication of Carol II. His heir was the minor Michael I, with Ion Antonescu as Prime Minister and Conducător (Leader, a title not dissimilar to that of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini). Antonescu soon consolidated power, but as the war turned against Germany, a National Democratic Bloc was formed against Antonescu, and after the Soviet offensive, this formed the government. After this, Romania fought the rest of the wor on the Allied side. The Bloc of Democratic Parties (BPD) was dominated by the Romanian Communist Party (PCR), who won elections in 1946 and consolidated power. In 1948 the BPD became the People’s Democratic Front (FDP), and the PCR the Romanian Workers’ Party (PMR) after the forced merger of social democrats. From 1952 onwards, the FDP was the sole legal bloc, similar to Bulgaria, under Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej. In 1965, Gheorghiu-Dej died and was replaced by Nicolae Ceaușescu. As part of Ceaușescu’s plan to de-satellise Romania, he renamed the PMR back to the PCR in 1965, and the FDP became the Front of Socialist Unity (FUS) in 1968 and the Front of Socialist Unity and Democracy (FUDS) in 1980. However, it remained a one-party state, and Ceaușescu resisted Gorbachev’s reforms, like Zhivkov in Bulgaria. All this led to was his violent removal, known as the Romanian Revolution, and execution. The opposition National Salvation Front (FSN) won the 1990 election, and 79.1% of people voted for a new constitution in 1991. The FSN split because President Ion Iliescu wanted to keep the socialist economy in a democratic system, forming the Democratic National Salvation Front (FDSN) which won 1992 elections. This then became the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PSDR). However, Iliescu lost to the centre-right Romanian Democratic Convention (CDR) in 1996, with Emil Constantiniescu becoming President. The PSDR formed the Social Democratic Pole of Romania (PDSR) alliance in 2000, re-electing Iliescu. It soon merged to form the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The National Union PSD+PUR (PUR was the Humanist Party of Romania) lost in 2004 to the Justice and Truth Alliance. Romania is a semi-presidential country, but presidential and parliamentary elections diverged. In 2008, parliamentary elections were held, narrowly won by the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL). In 2009, the PDL-backed incumbent Traian Băsescu was narrowly re-elected President against the PSD’s Mircea Geoană. In 2012, the PSD’s alliance with the National Liberal Party (PNL), called the Social Liberal Union (USL) won a landslide over the PDL’s Right Romania Alliance (ARD). For the 2014 presidential race, Klaus Iohannis from the PNL, whose Christian Liberal Alliance (ACL) also included the PDL, defeated the PSD’s Victor Ponta. However, the PSD did win 2016 parliamentary elections. In 2019, Iohannis was re-elected easily in a runoff, defeating the PSD’s Viorica Dăncilă with 66.1% support. He is term-limited with an election in September. Parliamentary elections were last held in 2020. In the Senate, the PSD won 47 seats, the PNL 41, the centrist USR PLUS alliance (USR is Save Romania Union, PLUS is the Freedom, Unity and Solidarity Party) 25, the right-wing nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR, Gold) fourteen, and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (RMDSZ) minority party nine. In the lower house, the PSD won 110 seats, the PNL 93, USR PLUS 55, the AUR 33 and the RMDSZ 21. Various other minority parties were entitled to one seat each. Florin Cîțu became PM in a PNL-USR PLUS-RMDSZ coalition. After this, the USR and PLUS merged. However, USR PLUS removed him in 2021 after they squabbled over an investment plan: USR PLUS began to boycott cabinet meetings and the sacking of a USR PLUS minister was the last straw. Thus, he was removed. USR PLUS renamed themselves back to the USR during this crisis. A PSD-PNL-RMDSZ coalition was formed under the independent former general Nicolae Ciucă to replace Cîțu. This coalition was also called the National Coalition for Romania (CNR), with agreement to rotate PM every eighteen months. In 2023, the rotation ocurred, with the PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu becoming PM. The RMDSZ also left the CNR at this stage. The next Romanian parliamentary election is in December. These local elections are on the same day as EU elections. They were last held in 2020. An indpendent backed by the PNL and USR PLUS, Nicușor Dan, was elected Mayor of Bucharest over the PSD’s Gabriela Firea, while the PNL and PSD were competing as the two largest parties in other local races. This time, the dynamic is very different thanks to the CNR. The main opposition is the AUR and the USR-formed United Right Alliance (ADU).
On the same day, Hungary will hold local elections. Hungary, part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until it fell during the defeat in World War I of 1918, were like Bulgaria and Romania in that they joined the Axis in World War II, but then overran by the Soviets. After this came a similar one-party regime under the Hungarian Working People’s Party (MDP) and its front, the Hungarian National Independence Front (MNFF) which was renamed the Hungarian Independence People’s Front (MFN) in 1949 and the Patriotic People’s Front (HNF) in 1954. The Stalinist Mátyás Rákosi was leader of Hungary during this time, but after an uprising, was replaced by the more liberal Imre Nagy. Nagy renamed the MDP to the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party (MSZMP), and this changed stuck. However, other than this, the USSR helped crush the Revolution and installed János Kádár, who prevented another revolution with a more moderate form known as Goulash Communism. Kádár left in 1988, and Hungary was also swept by anti-communism in 1989, leading to elections in 1990. By 1998, a two-party system had emerged, with the post-communist Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the conservative Fidesz (Alliance of Young Democrats) in competition. Fidesz won in 1998, but lost power in 2002 to the MSZP and again in 2006. However, after a leaked speech known as the Őszöd speech led to mass dissatisfaction with the MSZP, the Fidesz alliance with the small Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP), known simply as Fidesz-KDNP, won a two-thirds supermajority. After this, they changed the constitution in 2011 and have been accused of backsliding and consolidation of power ever since under Viktor Orbán. They won further elections in 2014 and 2018, with the most recent being in 2022: Fidesz-KDNP won 135 seats, while a united opposition called United for Hungary won 57 and the far-right Our Homeland Movement won six, with the German minority party taking one. These local elections were last held in 2019, and won by Fidesz, before United for Hungary was formed. Local mayoralties can have some good news for the opposition: after the conservative Péter Márki-Zay was elected Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely in 2019, he became the leader of the opposition. This election is on the same date as the EU election, where polling suggests a Fidesz-KDNP victory. The main opposition is the new centre-right Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA), formed by the Fidesz dissident Péter Magyar. Many forces have emerged as the next big thing to replace Orbán though, and up until now, none have succeeded.
On the same date, San Marino will hold parliamentary elections. San Marino has been an independent country for centuries, probably dating back to a monastic community, and received its present borders in 1463. It survived Italian reunification by providing refuge for leaders of the cause such as Giuseppe Garibaldi. Democracy was restored to the country in 1906 with 90.7% voting for this after the governing council had become an oligarchy. Political parties began to contest in 1920, including the Christian democratic Sammarinese People’s Party (PPS), the Sammarinese Socialist Party (PSS) and the centre-right Sammarinese Democratic Union. However, with fascism in Italy, in 1923 a Patriotic Bloc front was formed with the Sammarinese Fascist Party (PFS) joined by the PPS and Democratic Union, and the PSS banned from running. After this, the PFS ran alone in every election. However, in 1943 the PFS was dissolved after Italy’s defeat in World War II, and a “Lista Unica” took over the country after elections. In 1945, a Committee of Freedom (CdL) of left-wingers defeated the centrist Popular Alliance. In some ways, this mirrored Italian politics, with the CdL being like the PCI and the Popular Alliance like the Christian Democracy. This is considered the first democratically elected communist government in the world. At no point did they attempt to overthrow the democratic system. The CdL won again in 1949, and narrowly in 1951. The Sammarinese Communist Party (PCS) was the larger force alongside the PSS in the CdL, while the Sammarinese Christian Democratic Party (PDCS) was joined by the Sammarinese Democratic Socialist Party (PSDS) in the popular alliance, although the PDCS was much bigger. In 1955, the parties ran apart, although the PCS-PSS coalition resumed. In 1957, defections led to a controversial change of govermnent. PSS defectors merged with the PSDS to form the Sammarinese Independent Democratic Socialist Party (PSDIS). The PDCS-PSDIS coalition continued until 1974, when a PDCS-PSS coalition was formed. The PSDIS split in 1975 into the Unitary Socialist Party (PSU) and the much smaller Party of Socialist Democracy. In 1978, the PCS returned in a coalition with the PSS and PSU. In the 1980s, the PSU added the subtitle Socialist Agreement, becoming the PSU-IS. In 1988, a PDCS-PCS grand coalition was formed. Just like the PCI in Italy, in 1990 the PCS renounced communism, becoming the Sammarinese Democratic Progressive Party (PPDS), while the PSU-IS merged into the PSS. After 1993, a PDCS-PSS grand coalition was formed. The PPDS soon merged with smaller parties to become the Party of Democrats (PD). In 2005, this merged with the PSS to form the Party of Socialists and Democrats (PSD), thus creating a two-party system. In 2008 due to a new electoral law, coalitions were formed: the PDCS’ Pact for San Marino and the PSD’s Reforms and Freedom, won by the Pact for San Marino. However, in 2012 the two main parties won running together as the San Marino Common Good alliance. This destroyed the PSD as an opposition force, becoming a minor part of the PDCS coalition, San Marino First, in 2016. This was won by the left-wing Adesso.sm, with San Marino First second and Democracy In Motion, another left-wing group, third. The last election was in 2019, with the PDCS winning 21 seats. Second was Tomorrow In Motion, which won fifteen seats: eleven for the left-wing RETE Movement (Renewal, Equity, Transparency, Eco-sustainability) and four for the centrist Domani Motus Liberi (Tomorrow Free Movement, DML). Libera San Marino (Free San Marino), another left-wing party, won ten, with the centre-left We for the Republic (NpIR) winning eight, and the liberal Future Republic (RF) winning six. The PCDS, Tomorrow In Motion and NpIR formed a grand coalition. As San Marino has no prime minister or formal head of government, the Foreign Secretary is generally considered the head of government: this has been the PCDS’ Luca Beccari. A new coalition called Democracy and Freedom (DeL) has been formed by the PCDS with the small Reformist Alliance to contest the election. The RETE Movement and DML are running separately, while Libera are running with the PSD and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS). Polling suggests that DeL will win the most seats, then the Libera/PS and PSD alliance, then the RF, RETE Movement, and DML, with the new Solidary Democracy (DEMOS), a left-wing populist party, also entering parliament.
On the same date, the Italian region of Piedmont will hold local elections. In 1970, Italian regions got autonomy, and the biggest parties were the DC and PCI, with the DC forming government with minor left-wing parties. However, in 1975 the PCI became the largest party, and joined government, although the President was from the smaller Italian Socialist Party (PSI). Despite retaining this agreement in 1980, in 1983 the PSI switched sides, leading a government including the DC. The coalition survived in 1985, albeit with a DC leader, and in 1990 the same ocurred. In 1995, a new electoral system was used with direct elections for presidents. Forza Italia’s Enzo Ghigo was elected President for the centre-right coalition, defeating the centre-left coalition. Ghigo was re-elected for the Pole for Freedoms in 2000 (beating The Olive Tree). Ghigo was defeated under the House of Freedoms banner in 2005 by The Union’s Mercedes Bresso, from the Democrats of the Left (DS) party. In 2010, with the centre-left name restored, Bresso was defeated by the centre-right’s Roberto Cota from Lega Nord (LN, Northern League). Early elections were called in 2014 because some irregularity was discovered in the last one, and the centre-right were hurt by the emerging M5S in third, leading to an easy victory for the Democratic Party (PD)’s Sergio Chiamparino. However, in 2019, Chiamparino was defeated by Forza Italia’s Alberto Cirio. Cirio won 49.9% of the vote, with Cirio getting a seat as well as ten bonus seats. On the party list, the Lega got seventeen seats, Forza Italia three and Brothers of Italy (FdI) two. Chiamparino who got 35.8% of the vote also got his seat, while the PD got nine and its allies, the Chiamparino for Piedmont of Yes civic list, an alliance between the left-wing Free and Equal (LeU) and the green Green Europe (EV) and the centrist Moderates got one seat each. The M5S candidate got 13.6% of the vote and their 12.6% of the party vote was enough for five seats. Obviously, the dynamic has changed since then. Since the 2022 election, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI has became the main force in Italian politics and dominates the centre-right coalition, while PD and M5S have become closer. Although FdI succeeded in getting their own candidate installed in Sardinia, Cirio remains in this election, supported by the whole centre-right. Gianna Pentenero was picked as the centre-left candidate, and M5S announced their own candidate, Sarah Disabato. Even without this occurring, Cirio would have won easily: now is win is even further guaranteed. This election coincides with the EU and local elections.
On the same date, Switzerland is holding referendums. The Swiss Confederation was formed in 1847 following a civil war, amidst a revolutionary atmosphere in Europe at the time. Referendums are common in Switzerland due to their constitution, which dates back to 1847. The Federal Council is made up of seven people to lead the government, with a President chosen only for symbolic purposes and rotating yearly. In 1959, parliament was split between three main parties: the Social Democratic Party of Switzerland (SP), the Free Democratic Party of Switzerland (FDP), and the Conservative-Christian-Social People’s Party (KCV). Therefore, a ‘magic formula’ was agreed: they would have two seats each on the Federal Council, with the fourth party, the Party of Farmers, Traders, and Independents (BGB) getting one. Since then, the magic formula was never agreed. In 1970, the KCV became the Christian Democratic People’s Party of Switzerland (CDV), while in 1971 the BGB merged to become the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). In 2003, the SVP became the largest party, so the magic formula now had two SVP members and just one CDV member. In 2009, the FDP merged to become The Liberals. In 2021, the CDV also merged to become The Centre. In the last election, in 2023, the SVP won 62 seats, the SP 41, The Centre 29, The Liberals 28, the Green Party of Switzerland 23, the Green Liberal Party of Switzerland (GLP) ten, the Christian democratic Evangelical People’s Party of Switzerland (EVP), the right-wing Federal Democratic Union of Switzerland (EDU) and the right-wing populist Geneva Citizens’ Movement (MCG) two each, and the right-wing populist and regionalist Ticino League one. Despite The Centre overtaking The Liberals, The Liberals still have two seats in the magic formula. In the upper house, The Centre won fifteen seats, The Liberals eleven, the SP nine, the SVP six, the Greens three, and the MCG and GLP one each. Referendums are common in Switzerland. They are held on four dates every year. Famously, in 2009, a ban on minarets was passed by referendum with 57.5% support. The last ones were in March, where a vote to add a thirteenth “month” of pension payments passed with 58.2% support, but one to raise the retirement age failed with 25.3%. There are four referendums this time. The first, proposed by the SP and supported by the Greens and MCG, want to cap health insurance premiums at 10% of disposable income, with two-thirds paid for by the federal government and the rest by the cantonal government. The right-wing parties responded with a counter-law, so if it fails the cantons will have to pick up more of the slack. The second is a CVP proposal (pre-merger), which would create a “cost brake” of no more than 20% more than total growth, which is supported by the EVP and EDU. A counter-proposal if it fails would give the Federal Council the power to suggest it instead. The third is trying to limit the government’s power over “personal and mental integrity”, caused by COVID-19 sceptics and only supported by the SVP. Finally, a referendum against an adopted law on renewable energy was proposed, although all parties support keeping the law.
On the same date, Belgium will hold federal elections. The Belgian Revolution of 1830 saw the separation of the French-speaking Southern Provinces of the Netherlands, and a temporary Congress was elected in 1830, with regular elections in 1831. Power was split between Liberal and Catholic parties. In 1894, the Belgian Labour Party emerged, and in 1919, it became a major party, while the Liberals became kingmaker. Belgium was invaded and occupied by Germany in World War II, and elections were restored in 1946. The Catholic Party was deconfessionalised and replaced by the Christian Social Party (PSC), while in Labour’s place was the Belgian Socialist Party (BSP). Third was the Communist Party of Belgium (KBP), with the Liberal Party still existing in its old name. The Communists quickly declined, and the Liberals would be kingmaker between the PSC and BSP. In 1961, the Liberals were renamed the Party for Freedom and Progress (PVV-PLP), and were a stronger third force. However, this period also saw the emergence of Flemish nationalist, thanks to the People’s Union (VU) party. This led to a greater linguistic fragmentation and a very federal system. The PSC split into a Flemish Christian People’s Party (CVP) and the Francophone Christian Social Party (PSC) before the 1971 election. The PVV died in Wallonia, replaced by the Party of Reform and Freedoms of Wallonia (PRLW), while the Democratic Front of Francophones (FDF) did well amongst French-speakers in Brussels. Finally, the BSP split into two Socialist Parties, a Walloon one (PS) and a Flemish one (SP). Also, the PRLW became the Liberal Reformist Party (PRL). By now, Belgium’s three main fronts had a Flemish and Walloon version: Socialists (PS/SP), liberals (PVV/PRL) and Christian democrats (CVP/PSC). There were also other parties such as the VU, making forming government difficult. In 1992, the PVV formally dropped the unitary name, becoming the Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open Vld). In the 1990s, the VU declined in favour of the more radical Vlaams Blok (Flemish Bloc). Parties often changed identity: the CVP became Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V) in 2001, the PRL became the Reformist Movement (MR) following a merger, and the SP became the Socialist Party Differently (SP.A) in 2002, while in the same year the PSC became the Humanist Democratic Centre (CDH). The VU later split, with the left becoming Spirit (an ally of the SP.A) and the right becoming the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), an ally of CD&V. In 2004, Vlaams Blok was dissolved for racism, and replaced by Vlaams Belang (VB, Flemish Interest). In 2010, the N-VA ran alone and became the largest party. The last election was in 2019. The N-VA was the largest party with 25 seats, while the Socialist Party won twenty. Vlaams Belang soared to eighteen, with the MR on fourteen. The Walloon green Ecolo (Confederate Ecologists for the Organisation of Original Struggles) took thirteen, and CD&V twelve. The communist, unitary Workers’ Party of Belgium (PTB) took twelve, as did the Open Vld. The SP.A took nine, and the Flemish green Groen (Green) took eight. The CDH won five, while DéFI (challenge, also Democratic Federalist Independent), which came from the FDF won two. After negotiations, a seven-party coalition was formed of the liberals (Open Vld and MR), social democrats (PS and SP.A), greens (Ecolo and Groen), as well as CD&V. This left the two largest Flemish parties, the N-VA and VB, as nationalists out of government. Some more branding changes have taken place: the SP.A is now Vooruit (Forward) and the CDH now Les Engagés (LE, The Committed Ones). The Prime Minister is Open Vld’s Alexander De Croo. The PS are still top dogs in Wallonia, but the N-VA and VB are expected to get about 48% of the vote in Flanders. The PTB is also expected to do well, especially in Wallonia and the Brussels-Capital Region. This will make forming a government even harder than usual, and perhaps set the wheels in motion for a real possibility of Flemish independence. This election takes place on the same day as the EU vote.
On the same date, Belgium will also have regional elections. Belgium’s current setup has interlinking ‘regions’ and linguistic ‘communities’. The three regions of Belgium are Flanders, Wallonia, and the bilingual Brussels-Capital Region. Flanders, and Dutch-speakers in Brussels, are known as the Flemish Community. In Wallonia, there is a small German-speaking Community. The rest of the region is French-speaking: that part, and the French-speakers of Brussels, are the French-speaking Community. The Flemish Parliament combines being the parliament for the Flanders region and Flemish Community. Since 1995, it has been directly elected. In that election, the CSV was the largest party, with others including the Open Vld, SP, Vlaams Blok, VU, Agalev (an early name for Groen) and the Union des Francophones (UF, Union of Francophones) representing French-speakers in Flanders. The nationalists missed out on a majority in 2019: the N-VA getting 35 seats and VB 23. CD&V got nineteen seats, the Open Vld sixteen, Groen fourteen, the SP.A thirteen, and PTB (whose Dutch acronym is PVDA) four. The N-VA’s Jan Jambon formed government in an N-VA/CD&V/Open Vld alliance. Of course, the SP.A is now called Vooruit. Polling suggests the VB will come first ahead of the N-VA this time, with Vooruit taking a boost to finish ahead of the CD&V. Open Vld will decline, as will Groen, while the PVDA will gain. Unlike in Flanders, where the parliaments are merged, Wallonia has a separate Walloon parliament and a parliament of the French-speaking community. The first direct elections were in 1995. Five parties won seats: the PS, the PLR-FDF coalition, the PSC, Ecolo, and the National Front (FN), a far-right, Belgian nationalist party. It took until 2009 for the FN to disappear. Five parties won seats in 2019: the PS 23, the MR twenty, Ecolo twelve, and the PTB and CDH ten each. A PS-MR-Ecolo government was set up under President Elio Di Rupo (PS). The CDH is now Les Engagés. Polls for the Walloon election are rare, but polls for the federal election suggest the PS to win the most votes, but slightly less, the MR to stay about the same, Ecolo to drop off, and the PTB and LE to make gains. The Parliament of the French-speaking Community is not directly elected: being made up of all of the Walloon Parliament (although German-speakers have a subsitute from the same party) and nineteen of the French-speakers in the Brussels parliament. Brussels had its first election in 1989. Because both communities are represented, a lot of parties won seats: the PS, PLR, FDF, PSC, Ecolo, CSV, FN, PVV, SP, VU, Vlaams Blok and Agalev. After this, they were held in 1995 and brought into line with other elections. French-speakers are the majority, with 72 of 89 seats. In 2019, the PS won seventeen seats, Ecolo fifteen, the MR thirteen, the PTB eleven, DéFI ten, the CDH six, Groen four, the N-VA, Open Vld, and SP.A three, and Vlaams Belang, CD&V, the animalist DierAnimal (a unitary party, the name is Animal in both languages) and the localist Agora one each. Since then, the SP.A and CDH changed their names to Vooruit and LE. A PS-Ecolo-DéFI-Groen-SP.A-Open Vld coalition was formed, with Rudi Vervoort (PS) retaining his post as Minister-President since 2013. This gives a French-speaking parliament with 28 seats for the PS, 23 for the MR, sixteen for Ecolo, thirteen for the PTB, eleven for LE, and three for DéFI. A PS-MR-Ecolo coalition is in place under the MR’s Pierre-Yves Jeholet. Finally, the German-speaking parliament also exists. The first election was in 1974, when the Christian democratic Christian Social Party (CSP), a German-speaking party, one the most seats, followed by the right-wing Party of German-speaking Belgians (PDB), the Party for Freedom and Progress (PFF, retaining the old name of the PVV) and three for the BSP. From 1986 on they would not be held at the same time as general elections, and Ecolo also became part of the institution. However, in 1995, they would be held in line with other elections. After the BSP split, the PS would represent the German-speaking community. In 2004, Vivant (Alive in French and For Individual Freedom and Labour In A New Future) in Dutch added two seats, being a centrist party. In 2009, the PDB was replaced by ProDG (Pro German-speaking Community). In 2019, six parties won seats: ProDG and the CSP six, and the PS four, Vivant, Ecolo, and the PFF three each. The ProDG-PS-PFF coalition under ProDG’s Oliver Paasch resumed. The PFF was renamed Perspectives. Freedom. Progress. in 2023, retaining the acronym PFF. Polling is much rarer for this race, with a small community of less than 80,000. This compromise is a Jenga tower: fragile, but skilled politics can keep it together. The French-speakers choose the left, the Dutch-speakers the right, and this can cause it to crash down. If independence becomes a real possibility though, will people baulk as they did in Scotland and Quebec?
Also on 9 June, Belgium will indirectly choose its Senate. The Senate of Belgium used to be partially directly elected, but is now chosen indirectly. 29 senators are chosen by the Flemish Parliament from among the Parliament and the Dutch-speaking members of the Brussels Parliament. Ten are appointed by and from the French-speaking Parliament, eight by and from the Parliament of Wallonia, and two by and from the French-speaking members of the Brussels Parliament. The final one is appointed by the German-speaking Parliament. Ten more are then co-opted by these Senators: six Dutch-speakers and four French-speakers. As all these bodies (directly or indirectly) are elected on 9 June, this also becomes an indirect Senate election. There are currently nine N-VA Senators, seven MR, PS, and VB Senators each (including a PFF Senator who sits in the MR group), five each for CD&V, Ecolo, Open Vld, and the PTB, four for Groen and Vooruit, and two for LE. All of this article, when it talks about Belgium has done if nothing else, is show just how important the linguistic divide is in Belgium: in Switzerland, with three major languages (and four official ones), barely a peep is heard about it, but in Belgium it is of great importance, and indeed, the Vlaams Belang and N-VA want it to end Belgium.
On 11 June, the American district of Ohio’s 6th congressional district will hold a special election. Ohio was admitted to the Union in 1803. In the early days, Ohio was a close state, but after the Civil War became loyal to the Republican Party until 1912 and 1916 when it finally became Democratic. It was Republican throughout the twenties, but voted for Franklin D. Roosevelt (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) in three of his landslides. Bizarrely, it voted for Thomas E. Dewey (Thomas Edmund Dewey) in 1944 against Roosevelt, but in the much tighter race between Dewey and Harry S. Truman (the S did not stand for anything), it chose Truman. In 1960, it picked Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy (John Fitzgerald Kennedy), this was the last time it picked a loser until 2020, being considered a bellweather. However, in 2020 it selected Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Joe Biden, and is not considered a particularly competitive state anymore, being a “red” (Republican) state. This special election is called in a rural, safe Republican seat, thanks to the resignation of Bill Johnson. Johnson beat incumbent Democrat Charlie Wilson in 2010, the first of seven election wins. The last of those came in 2022, when Louis Lyras was defeated by 67.7% of the vote to 32.3%. However, he resigned in 2024 to become President of Youngstown State University. In a competitive primary, state senator Michael Rulli defeated state representative Reggie Stolzfus for the Republican nomination, while businessman Michael Kripchak runs as a Demcorat. Rulli is expected to win easily.
On the same date, the American city of Las Vegas in Nevada will hold its mayoral election. This election is non-partisan. Oscar Goodman became Mayor in 1999, and then his wife Carolyn Goodman in 2011, but this dynasty will finally end at this election. A runoff will take place on November 5 is noone is elected with a majority in the first round. A total of fourteen are on the ballot, including Democratic former US representative Shelley Berkley and Republican city councillor Victoria Seaman. Vegas is the largest city in the state of Nevada, which is a blue-leaning swing state. Clark County, which Las Vegas is part of, is three-quarters of the population, and has been blue since 1992 in presidential elections. Las Vegas also leans Democratic, as urban areas have tended to do since the 1992 election.
On 18 June, the Canadian provincial district of Tuxedo in Manitoba holds a by-election. Manitoba was part of the English and then British Hudson’s Bay Company, known as Rupert’s Land, and became part of the Canadian Confederation in 1870. Like other parts of Canada, and the federal system, Conservative and Liberal parties emerged. After a Liberal landslide in 1915, in 1920 labour groups emerged, most notably under the Farmer description and the socialist Dominion Labour Party (DLP). The Farmers movement then became the Progressive Party of Manitoba in 1922, which won the election under Premier John Bracken. The DLP was replaced by its own splinter, the Independent Labour Party (ILP). In 1932, the Progressives and Liberals ran together, and in 1936 they merged: despite being mostly Progressives, the name Liberal-Progressive was used and the party was often mostly just called Liberal. The ILP would run with and soon be superceded by the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF). During this time, the federal Tories were struggling, and they recruited Bracken as leader, on the condition that the party be renamed Progressive Conservative (PC). Thus, in 1943 he finally stepped down as Premier. From 1940 onwards, a coalition of Liberal, Conservative/PC, CCF, and Social Credit would run the province, though the CCF left in 1943. Social Credit lost their seats in 1949, and in 1950 the PCs switched to the opposition, leaving a Liberal government, PC opposition and CCF as third party. The PC party finally won power in 1958, ending 43 years of Liberal-Progressive rule. In 1961, the Liberal-Progressives finally became the Liberal Party, and the CCF became the New Democratic Party (NDP). The PC Party won four in a row (1958, 1959, 1962, 1966) with the Liberals second and CCF/NDP third every time. However, in 1969, the NDP won power amidst PC losses and Liberal collapse. Thus, a two-party PC-NDP system emerged, and by 1981 the Liberals had lost all of their seats, the NDP winning 34-23 and Howard Pawley becoming Premier. However, Tuxedo, newly created, was PC country, with Gary Filmon, MLA for the old riding of River Heights, winning 64.6% of the vote against NDP and Liberal opposition. In 1986, Pawley’s NDP were re-elected, defeating Filmon’s PCs 30-26 (with one Liberal). In Tuxedo, Filmon fell to 49.1% due to a resurgent Liberal party. In 1988, the PCs won 25 seats, with twenty for the Liberals and twelve for the NDP. Filmon defeated the Liberal Jasper McKee by just 124 votes, but became Premier in a minority government. A 1990 snap election saw Filmon win a majority with thirty seats, while the NDP became the opposition with twenty seats and the Liberals dropped to seven. Filmon easily beat his Liberal opponent with 65.1% of the vote. Filmon continued as Premier after the 1995 election, when he won 31 seats compared to 23 for the NDP and three for the Liberals; in Tuxedo, he took 66.2% of the vote, and the Liberals were still the second party. Finally, in 1999, the PCs were defeated by Gary Doer’s NDP, who won 32-24 (with one Liberal). Filmon was re-elected in Tuxedo with 60.7% of the vote, most NDP gainst came from the Liberals who were overtaken to second. Filmon soon stepped down in 2000. In the by-election, Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson won easily as the Liberals improved to second. However, in 2003, Doer was re-elected as Premier, winning 35-20 (with two Liberals). The NDP again came second but Stefanson won 52.8% and easily won re-election. In 2007, Doer again won a term as Premier, 36-19 (with two Liberals). Despite a 5% swing to the NDP Stefanson was re-elected. In 2009, Doer retired and was replaced by Minister of Finance Greg Selinger. He won again in 2011, 37-19 (with one Liberal). Stefanson gained a 5% swing back on the NDP. The NDP were finally ousted in 2016 by Brian Pallister’s PC Party, 40-14 (with three Liberals). Stefanson won 57.9% with the opposition split between the NDP, Liberals, and Greens. In 2019, Pallister won another term, 36-18 (with three Liberals). The Liberals came second in Tuxedo, with a 9% PC to Liberal swing, but Stefanson won again. Pallister retired in 2021, and Kelvin Goertzen became interim leader and Premier before Stefanson was elected. However, in 2023, she lost power, 34-22, to Wab Kinew’s NDP (with one Liberal). In Tuxedo, she barely held on, with 40.2% of the vote compared to the NDP’s 37.5% and Liberals’ 22.3%: this gave her a lead of 268. Thus, she has stepped down as leader and now MLA, forcing a by-election. Since its creation in 1981, this riding has only elected PCs, and both of them have become Premier. However, lawyer Lawrence Pinsky will have a tough fight against nurse Carla Compton from the NDP. The Liberals are running Jamie Pfau, President of the provincial foster parent association, while the Greens are putting forward their leader Janine Gibson. 2023 Liberals may vote tactically, and these could go in either direction.
On 24 June, the Canadian federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul’s in Ontario will hold a by-election. Ontario joined the Canadian confederation in 1867, when the country began. Like in Manitoba (and in most provinces), in the early days Liberal and Conservative parties emerged in federal Canadian politics as well. In 1921, the Progressives emerged, but these slowly died out. St. Paul’s was created in 1935, the year where William Lyon McKenzie King’s Liberals defeated the incumbent Conservative government of R. B. Bennett (Richard Bedford Bennett) in a landslide, but this was one of few seats won by the Tories, with Douglas Ross the MP. Ross narrowly beat Liberals in 1940 and 1945 (using the wartime ‘National Government’ label in 1940 and as a Progressive Conservative in 1945), but stepped down in 1949 and Tory Roland Michener was defeated by Liberal James Rooney. However, Michener beat Rooney back in 1953, and win again in 1957 and 1958. In 1962, Michener lost to Liberal Ian Wahn narrowly, and Wahn won the seat easily in 1963, a big win for Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson (Lester Bowles Pearson). Wahn easily won in 1965 and 1968, but in the hung parliament of 1972 lost to PC Ron Atkey. Atkey only lasted one term until Liberal John Roberts won in 1974, but Atkey won his seat back in 1979, and then Roberts again in 1980. Roberts lost to PC Barbara McDougall in 1984, who won in 1988, but despite being the incumbent foreign minister stepped down in 1993. This is a famous election where the PC government was very unpopular, and the Liberal landslide was so big that the PC party was reduced to two seats, with the Western-based populist conservative Reform Party of Canada replacing them. However, they were not even the opposition, as the Bloc Québécois (Quebecer Bloc), a seperatist party in Quebec, won more seats than them, and the NDP had a bad election as well. Liberal Barry Campbell easily picked up this seat, the PCs were the main opposition here. In 1997, the Liberals easily won again with Reform, the Bloc, NDP, and PCs as opposition (in that order), and Campbell stepped down but his replacement Carolyn Bennett won easily. In 2000, Reform was replaced by the Canadian Alliance (to drop the ‘Western’ image) but little else changed. In St. Paul’s, Bennett easily won re-election. After this, the PCs and Alliance merged into the Conservative Party of Canada, thus restoring a two-party system (with the Bloc and NDP as minor parties). Bennett, again was easily re-elected. In 2006, the new Tories won power for the first time, but Bennett had no real difficulty being re-elected. The same was true in 2008. In 2011, the Liberals collapsed as the NDP moved into second. Bennett held on with a majority of 4,500 from the Conservatives, the NDP came third. Minor boundary changes came in in 2015, causing the current Toronto—St. Paul’s riding to exist. This was a Liberal resurgence as they won a majority under Justin Trudeau with 184 seats, the Tories falling to 99 and NDP dropping to 44. The Bloc won ten and Greens one. Bennett easily won with 55.3% of the vote. Trudeau won another term in 2019, but lost his majority: taking 157 seats, with 121 for the Conservatives, 32 for the Bloc, 24 for the NDP, three for the Greens and one independent. Bennett, Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations by now, took 54.3% of the vote. In 2021, a snap election was held, but little changed: the Liberals won 160 seats, the Tories 119, the Bloc 32, NDP 25, and Greens two. In Toronto—St. Paul’s, Bennett easily won with 48.9% of the vote, while the Tories took 25.8%, NDP 16.5%, Greens 6.2%, and the right-wing People’s Party of Canada 2.9%. Trudeau relies on the NDP in confidence and supply. At the next election, boundaries will change slightly, but this will use the old boundaries. Trudeau’s Liberals are miles behind the Tories in polls, but a loss here would be a major upset and perhaps give Trudeau’s rivals in the party impetus to convince him to jump. Bennett said she would not run for re-election, after which she was removed from Cabinet and allowed an exit by being appointed Ambassador to Denmark. Leslie Church, former Chief of Staff to Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland is the Liberal candidate, while the Conservatives have gone with regulator Don Stewart. The NDP candidate is Amrit Parhar and the Greens Christian Cullis, while a host of minor parties such as the People’s Party are running candidates, as are a huge number of independents called the Longest Ballot Committee as a protest against first-past-the-post voting.
On 25 June, Colorado’s 4th congressional district is holding a special election. Colorado joined the Union in 1876. Colorado was previously settled by Native Americans and whites were uninterested until the Colorado Gold Rush, after which Colorado became a Territory in 1861. Colorado was initially a Republican leaning state, even voting for the Republicans in the latter two of Roosevelt’s four landslides (1940 and 1944), although like Nevada they voted for Truman in 1948. After that, it became a red state, voting Republican every time until 2004 except for Lyndon B. Johnson (Lyndon Baines Johnson)’s landslide of 1964 and Bill Clinton’s win in the three-candidate election of 1992. However, Barack Obama turned it blue in its 2008 landslide and it did not turn back, now being considered a blue state. That said, this Eastern Plains district is still pretty solidly Republican. District Attorney Ken Buck was first elected in 2014, his first of five wins. In 2022, he won with 60.9% compared to his Democratic opponent on 36.6%. Former Mayor of Parker Greg Lopez came through a tough Republican primary wile communications worker Trisha Calvarese won the Democratic one. It is likely the Republicans will hold on to this seat.
On 26 June, Thailand holds its Senate election. In 1932, Siam’s absolute monarchy was overthrown, transitioning to a constitutional monarchy. The first election was in 1933, but without parties and still with half the seats being royal appointees. Parties emerged in 1957, the same year as a coup. After that, democracy was pretty unstable: a brief period of democracy from 1973 to 1976 led to a coup and right-wing government, but a more moderate government came in 1977 with a period of “semi-democracy”. A 1991 coup led to violently suppressed demonstrations, but these did lead to the coup leaders being removed in exchange for an amnesty law. In 2001, the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT, Thais Love Thais Party) won under the businessman Thaksin Shinawatra. He won a bigger majority in 2005, and then called a snap election in 2006 that was boycotted by opposition leading to another coup. The Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) junta banned the TRT party and figures but restored elections in 2007: the TRT’s de facto replacement People’s Power Party (PPP) was still popular. The PPP was banned for “vote buying” in 2008 so most of them formed a new party, the Pheu Thai Party (For Thais Party), but enough went to the Democrat Party to depose the PPP government. The Pheu Thai Party won a majority in 2011, and Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra became PM. Pheu Thai then put forward a bill to give amnesty, which may have been seen as a way to allow Thaksin back into the mold. After protests, they decided to call a snap election. The Democrat Party then said they would boycott it. However, the court nullified the results and soon after a coup occurred, led by Prayut Chan-o-cha, who formed the National Council for Peace and Order (NCOP) junta. The NCOP finally announced elections in 2019, with Prayut now running as a civilian politician. His Palang Pracharath Party (People’s State Power Party) and Pheu Thai were about neck-and-neck, with the radically liberal progressive Future Forward Party (FFP) in third. However, the new 2017 constitution, passed in a 2016 referendum with 61.4% support and the ‘no’ campaign suppressed, also stipulated that the Senate, appointed by the junta, would appoint the new PM, allowing Prayut to continue. However, in 2023, the Move Forward Party (MFP), a replacement for the FFP who were dissolved for legal reasons they claim were politically motivated won the most seats (151), just ahead of Pheu Thai (140). The conservative Bhumjaithai Party (BJT, Thai Pride Party) won 71 seats, Palang Pracharath forty, the United Thai Nation Party, who Prayut ran under 36, the Democrat 25, and several others between one and ten. Senators blocked a MFP government from forming, and eventually a Pheu Thai government led by Srettha Thavisin took office with support of the Senators and nearly every party apart from the MFP. Thailand has been sharply criticised for the human rights situation, especially laws banning any criticism of the constitutional monarchy, suppression of the FFP/MFP, and the unelected Senate. The constitution did state that the Senate’s junta-appointed status would end after seven years, and an election takes place in 2024. However, no parties are allowed to run, and the elections are from twenty ‘pools’ of experts, choosing ten senators each (i.e., ‘education’, ‘law and justice’, ‘NGOs’, etc.). This has been criticised because this basically unelected group still has a big role in choosing the government, unlike other countries where the unelected or indirectly elected upper house only serves as a body to hold to account the lower house.
On 28 June, Mongolia holds parliamentary elections. Although the Mongol Empire was one of history’s most famous, it eventually fell to China. During the Xinhai Revolution of 1911 and fall of the Qing dynasty, Mongolia declared itself independent, but the new Republic of China disagreed. Mongolia needed Russian help to actually win its independence from China in 1921, and after the death of its leader Bogd Khan in 1924, became a communist state known as the Mongolian People’s Republic. There was no democracy, but certain quasi-democratic institutions were set up, such as the parliament, under the one-party rule of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP). However, it took until the end of World War II for Mongolia to be recognised as independent by the international community, alongside a 1945 referendum with 100.0% support (even though Mongolia had been independent from China for 24 years as a Soviet satellite state). After the Republic of China retreated to Taiwan, Mongolia agreed recognition with the People’s Republic of China, causing the Republic of China to refuse to recognise Mongolia and veto it joining the United Nations for several years. The last one-party election took place in 1986. From 1940 to 1954 and 1958 to 1984, Yumjaagiin Tsedenbal led the MPRP, but his paranoia and purges finally led to the Soviets removing him in 1984, to be replaced by Jambyn Batmönkh (in classic Soviet style, the official reason for removing him was that he was suffering from “overwork”). Like Georgia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary, Mongolia was affected by Gorbachev’s reforms. A democratic revolution took face in 1989 and 1990, and though many MPRP figures wanted to violently suppress it, Batmönkh angrily refused and resigned, dissolving the Politburo. Free elections were agreed, although the MPRP won these easily. Sharavyn Gungaadorj carried on as PM, but was soon replaced by Dashiin Byambasüren who shared power and worked to a new constitution. In 1992, the Mongolian People’s Republic became simply Mongolia in this new constitution, with a semi-presidential system and elections were held. Puntsagiin Jasrai became PM. The MPRP again won easily, taking seventy of 76 seats. However, in the 1993 presidential race, MPRP candidate Lodongiyn Tudev lost to Punsalmaagiin Ochirbat, the incumbent and a former MPRP figure, but now the candidate of the Mongolian Social Democratic Party (MSDP) and Mongolian National Democratic Party (MNDP). The next parliamentary election was in 1996. The MSDP and MNDP formed the Democratic Union Coalition (DUC) for this, which won the election fifty to 25 for the MPRP. Mendsaikhany Enkhsaikhan, chairman of Ochirbat’s office, became PM. However, in 1997, Ochirbat (DUC candidate) was easily defeated by the MPRP’s Natsagiin Bagabandi, the party leader. In 1998 DUC tensions forced Enkhsaikhan out in favour of Vice Speaker Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj. Later that year, Elbegdorj was forced out for trying to sell a bank, and replaced by Mayor of Ulaanbaatar Janlavyn Narantsatsralt. Natrantsatsralt’s attempt to privatise a bank also led to his ouster after the MPRP started boycotting parliament in 1999. Rinchinnyamyn Amarjargal, the MNDP General-Secretary became PM. He at least lasted until the 2000 election, but the MPRP won 72 of 76 seats and Nambaryn Enkhbayar, the MPRP Chairman became PM. In 2001, Bagabandi easily beat Radnaasümbereliin Gonchigdorj from the Democratic Party, formed when the DUC parties merged with others into a new party. However, in 2004, the MPRP lost its majority, winning just two more seats than the Motherland Democratic Coalition, which included the Democratic Party. In a grand coalition, Elbegdorj became PM again. In 2005, Enkhbayar was the MPRP presidential candidate, and won easily, with two minor party candidates splitting the opposition vote. In 2006, the MPRP left the coalition when a Democrat defected and Elbegdorj was replaced by Miyeegombyn Enkhbold, who replaced Enkhbayar as MPRP leader when he was elected President. In 2007, an MPRP congress replaced Enkhbold by Sanjaagiin Bayar, the party’s General Secretary. The MPRP won a majority in 2008, but in 2009, Elbegdorj narrowly defeated Enkhbayar to become President. Bayar stepped down for health reasons in 2009, replaced by Sükhbaataryn Batbold, the foreign minister. In 2010, the MPRP dropped the ‘revolutionary’, becomign the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), and ditching democratic socialism for social democracy. However, a dissident MPRP was founded by Enkhbayar, which formed a Justice Coalition with a new MNDP founded by Enkhsaikhan. In 2012, they came third and deprived both parties of a majority, but the Democrats were bigger and formed a coalition with the MPRP. Democratic Party leader Norovyn Altannkhuyag became PM. In 2013, Elbegdorj defeated MPP candidate Badmaanyambuugiin Bat-Erdene. Altankhuyag was replaced in 2014 by Chief of the Cabinet Secretariat Chimediin Saikhanbileg. In 2016, the MPP won a big majority, and former Finance Minister Jargaltulgyn Erdenebat became PM. However, in 2017 the Democrats’ Khaltmaagiin Battulga (former Industry and Agriculture Minister) defeated Enkhbold; the MPRP candidate Sainkhüügiin Ganbaatar did very well for third and forced the first runoff. Soon after, Erdenebat was removed for corruption allegations and replaced by Uknaagiin Khürelsükh, his Deputy. In 2020, the MPP won 62 seats, the Democratic Party eleven, Our Coalition (led by the MPRP) one and the Right Person Electorate Coalition (ZKEE) one. Protests about healthcare saw Khürelsükh resign in 2021. He was replaced by Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, the Chief Cabinet Secretary. Also that year, the MPRP merged into the MPP. In 2021, Khürelsükh was elected President with 72.0% support, defeating the ZKEE candidate Dangaasürengiin Enkhbat (21.6%) and the Democrat Sodnomzunduin Erdene (6.4%). The ZKEE has broken up this time, with the main party (and the one with a seat), the HUN Party (HUMAN Party, also formerly an acronym for National Labour Party), running separately. Thus, the MPP, Democrats, and HUN Party are the three main forces at this election. The MPP is centre-left, while the other two are centre-right.
On the same date, Iran will hold presidential elections. Since the Islamic Revolution, the Supreme Leader is the highest office in Iran, apparently accountable to the Assembly of Experts. In reality, they have near untouched power. Ruhollah Khomeini came to power in 1979, and after his 1989 death he has been replaced by Ali Khamenei. The President is the highest directly elected office, but even this is subject to stringent obstruction. Abolhassan Banisadr was elected President in 1980, but he was impeached for trying to subvert clerical power. In July 1981, Prime Minister Mohammad-Ali Rajai was elected President, from the pro-Khomeini Islamic Republican Party (IRP). He was killed in a bombing of the PM’s Office in 1981. Thus in October legislator Ali Khamenei was elected. He was re-elected easily in 1985. In 1989, he became Supreme Leader, after which the office of PM was abolished and the President led the government. The right-wing Combatant Clergy Association (CCA) saw its candidate Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Speaker of parliament, elected. He was re-elected in 1993. In 1997, the more liberal Association of Combatant Clerics (ACC) candidate Mohammad Khatami, former Minister of Culture, was elected easily. In 2001, under the Council for Coordinating the Reforms Front, Khatami was re-elected. At this time, the main division was between ‘reformists’ and ‘principilists’. In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Mayor of Tehran from the Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran (ABII), a principilist party, won against Rafsanjani in a runoff. In 2009, he defeated Senior Advisor to Khatami Mir-Hossein Mousavi. The reformists returned under former Chief Nuclear Negotiator Hassan Rouhani of the Moderation and Development Party (MDP), who was re-elected in 2013, and in 2017 he beat the CCA’s Ebrahim Raisi. Chief Justice Raisi won easily in 2021, by which time Rouhani had fallen out with Khamenei among massive suppression of candidates, with Ahmadinejad amongst those banned. This lead to mass boycotts and spoiling of ballots. However, Raisi took office. His term was difficult, with mass protests after a woman died in the custody of the religious morality police under very questionable circumstances, leading to accusations she had been murdered and mass protests against the incident and regime as a whole which made international headlines. In 2024, Raisi died in a plane crash, Vice President Mohammed Mokhber has been Acting President. Among the candidates this time is Ahmadinejad, although the Guardian Council, close to the Supreme Leader will announce an “approved” list in a few days, which may or may not include him. Right now, pretty much only the principilist front is considered kosher in Iran, with the reformists suppressed left and centre.
On 29 June, Mauritania will hold presidential elections. Mauritania became a French colony in 1904, adding it to French West Africa (AOF). After World War II, French West Africa got more rights in the French political system, electing deputies to parliament and participating in referendums. Mauritania also got a General Council, which evolved into the Territorial Council and Territorial Assembly. In 1958, Mauritania voted with 94.0% support to join the French Community, in which it declared independence in 1960. Political parties were soon consolidated into the Mauritanian Regroupment Party (PRM), with their leader, Moktar Ould Daddah, being the only presidential candidate in 1961. In 1961, the remaining opposition merged into the Mauritanian People’s Party (PPM), and the country became Daddah’s fief, with opposition banned. One-party elections still took place. In 1978, the country was struggling due to participation in the Western Sahara War, and a military coup led by Mustafa Ould Salek took place, with Salek leading the Military Council for National Recovery (CMRN) junta. In 1979, another coup put the Military Committee for National Salvation (CMSN) in power. Prime Minister Mohamed Khouna Ould Haidalla seized power in a 1980 coup, becoming President, and in 1984 Army Chief of Staff Maaouya Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya seized power. Finally, in 1991, a new constitution to restore elected government passed with 97.9% support, and in the presidential country elections were held in 1992: the Democratic and Social Republican Party (PRDS) candidate Ould Taya defeated Ahmed Ould Daddah (Moktar Ould Daddah’s half-brother), from the Union of Democratic Forces. The PRDS also dominated parliament, and the Union began to boycott elections, allowing Ould Taya to be re-elected in 1997 with little opposition. In 2003, he defeated independent Haidalla. In 2005, a coup by the Armed Forces was held, allowing a junta, the Military Council for Justice and Democracy (CMJD), to take power. A new constitution was supported by 97.0% in 2006, and multi-party elections took place. In 2007, independent Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, a longtime politician, narrowly defeated Ahmed Ould Daddah, who ran under the Rally of Democratic Forces (RFD) banner. In 2008, after an attempted reshuffle of the armed force, a junta led by Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz called the High Council of State took power in a coup. He then formed a Union for the Republic (UPR) party in 2009 and was elected President. The UPR also won a majority in parliamentary elections. In 2014, Abdel Aziz won 81.9% of the vote amidst an opposition boycott. In 2019, Minister of Defence Mohamed Ould Ghazouani was elected President with 52.0% support, defeating opposition candidates lawmaker Biram Dah Abeid (18.6%) and Sidi Mohamed Ould Boubacar, a former Prime Minister (17.9%). In 2022, the UPR was succeeded by the Equity Party. They won 107 seats in parliamentary elections in 2023, with the remainder very split. This presidential election will see Ghazouani run again, with Abeid the main challenger. Abdel Aziz tried to run but has been jailed for corruption. However, the regime set up in 2008 by the coup has still ran unbroken, even if the face changes. A key issue in Mauritania is slavery, with black people often held as slaves by Arab owners, although this is officially illegal. Abeid himself is a former slave, who was jailed but elected a parliamentarian anyway.
Earth Elects 
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